WAVE Weather Now Update - Sunday, 7/19/26

[00:00:00]Heat. Heat.

[00:00:22]Heat. Heat.

[00:01:11]Heat. Heat.

[00:01:48]Okie dokie. Here we go. Hi there, Carson Meredith with you. It is 6:46. It's a Sunday night. I hope you're well. I hope you've had a good weekend. Hopefully, uh um well, never mind. Uh hope you've had a good weekend so far. Hope you've had a good Sunday. Uh we've got a lot to talk about heading into Tuesday. Obviously, that is the big topic of conversation.

[00:02:14]We've got new details on the growing severe weather risk, which I I'm sure a lot of you have already seen. And we're just going to kind of walk you through where things stand um right now as far as how many rounds of storms we may see on Tuesday, when they could be the most severe, and what kind of threats we're watching.

[00:02:34]Uh this is a setup that we're used to seeing in the spring in late July. And when that happens, I personally get a little bit nervous. But it's our job to walk you through the noise and tell you what to expect. And that is what we are going to do uh over the next few minutes. But let's start off with radar tonight because there are still a couple of showers out there uh south of the parkways basically. Um, we mentioned yesterday or last night I suppose that this front that moved into the region last night was going to just meander nearby and it did set off some downpours earlier this afternoon as expected mainly south of I64. But you see for the most part they've really faded and exited the area uh at a good clip. We haven't had any flooding issues today. There is a flash flood warning down the Kentucky Tennessee border for Clinton County I believe. Uh that's outside of our coverage area. They have had some flooding down there, but nothing like that here at home. We'll zoom in on some of those downpours that we're still tracking. Again, these don't even have lightning, but still a quick burst of heavy rain if you get under one of these. Uh one of which is right there along Highway 31 between Magnolia and Hajenville uh in Laroo County.

[00:03:51]Let's see. We've got one out near Ruff River in southeastern Bre, right where Breenidge, Grayson, Harden all come together. They're out near Ruff River.

[00:03:59]Uh and got a few downpours across Marian County.

[00:04:05]Lebanon getting a dose of heavy rain uh right now and areas to the north of Lebanon in Marian County. So this is really kind of the end of the game for today when it comes to our downpour chances on this Sunday. Once these fade away, which should be no later than sunset, we'll keep things quiet uh for the rest of your Sunday night. No big deal for 98% of you. You're done with the rain for the rest of the day. We're done with the rain here in Louisville, southern Indiana. Some of you all haven't seen a drop all day as expected.

[00:04:40]We'll zoom things out and I can kind of show you the big picture. And you could tell those showers I just showed you are right on that front. Um, south of that front, there's still tons of instability, which means tons of thunderstorms, numerous flash flood warnings. Uh we mentioned that one on the Kentucky Tennessee border in Clinton County. There's also several just east of Nashville. They're on the Cumberland Plateau. Got severe thunderstorm warnings across North Carolina tonight um out towards Raleigh and even close to the Outer Banks. Uh but that's all staying pretty much south of us tonight.

[00:05:14]Now, here's the kicker. Um this front, it's going to try to meander a wee bit more, but it's not going to make it to Nashville. So, it's still going to be nearby overnight tonight and it's actually going to retreat northward Monday as a warm front. Um, so what that means, it's going to be hot and humid again tomorrow. Highs in the low 90s, heat index in the upper 90s. I'll show you that breakdown here in a second. But it's also going to give us that opportunity again for perhaps a few more of those spotty downpours. Uh we're not going to see nearly as many downpours tomorrow as what we did on Saturday and not as many as what we saw today, but it'll be plenty humid enough for a couple of rogue downpours to fire up tomorrow with this front lifting back to the north as a warm front. And of course, it's going to be lifting back to the north as a warm front as a result of the storm system that's going to give us trouble on Tuesday. It's all kind of a chain reaction as it always is in the atmosphere, right? So, there's that live. Look at a hazy hazy hazy downtown Louisville. And yes, there is a tiny bit of smoke uh in the atmosphere. It's not a ton. There's zero air quality concerns, but that's why it looks a little more hazy today. And that'll be the case again tomorrow, too. But this is obviously nowhere close to what we had to deal with uh up towards Chicago and Detroit and New York and Washington a few days ago. Current temperature in Louisville is 89. That from what I have seen is our high temperature for the day. We may have briefly touched 90 earlier, but most of us have been around 88 89. We'll drop to 70 for our forecast low tonight. Partly cloudy skies. Those downpours I just showed you near the parkways uh will be off the board here and absolute latest by 9:00 and even then it'll probably be sooner than that.

[00:07:06]So, quiet night ahead. Hot day tomorrow.

[00:07:09]We mention our forecast actual temperatures in the low 90s, which you see right here. Got 91 in Louisville tomorrow for what it's worth.

[00:07:18]Factor in that humidity. It's not dangerous. It's not intense, but it's just blleh, right? Uh could feel as hot as 97, 98, maybe 99 uh in a few spots tomorrow. So, just a classic hot and humid day on Monday with that tiny chance for a couple of popups. No big deal. Okay, so I sprinted through tonight and tomorrow because I know all you care about is Tuesday. We've got more specifics for you, but I want to emphasize before we get into the nitty-gritty of this. Um, a lot of adjustments are likely when it comes to timing, when it comes to locations, when it comes to the extent of the threats now until Tuesday afternoon. This is kind of my first gut feeling of how this is all going to play out on Tuesday. Okay? So, just emphasize, you know, Tana might come in in the morning. She might see some different things and make some adjustments. Brian could do the same thing tomorrow morning as well. Um, so this is kind of an early glimpse of what we might have in store on Tuesday. So our alert day timing for now is 2:00 p.m. to midnight on Tuesday.

[00:08:37]Does that mean you are going to see storms non-stop from 2 p.m. to midnight?

[00:08:42]Not at all. Okay. In fact, as you're going to see on futurecast here in a second, there is a scenario where some of you do not see a single storm any part of the day on Tuesday. It's a small chance, but some of you may get completely missed. So, the alert day is from 2 p.m. to midnight. And I know a lot of you are going to have questions.

[00:09:05]Let me just kind of walk you through what we're looking at now, and then I'll answer those questions for you later on.

[00:09:10]we could see several rounds of strong to severe storms. Now, keep in mind that 2 p.m. to midnight time frame is where we're most focused on severe weather, but there is a possibility we could have storms Tuesday morning as well. And if we do see those storms Tuesday morning, that's going to impact the rest of the day and the rest of the night on Tuesday. So, again, going back to that chain reaction kind of deal. Number one concern is still damaging winds.

[00:09:39]However, uh there will be a tornado risk, especially if we get any isolated cells uh that might act as supercells that try to develop and get out there on their own. It's not out of the question.

[00:09:51]Again, this is kind of a spring setup with July instability.

[00:09:57]And if we're not careful, that could mean a loaded gun scenario when it comes to severe weather. So, we really need to pay attention to this. Here's the breakdown of the main threats. Top of the list, damaging winds, 60 maybe 70 mph wind gust possible in the most intense storms on Tuesday. Uh the tornado risk is there, especially if we get any isolated supercells. And the large hail threat will also come into play if we get supercells. Um I think the hail threat is a teeny tiny bit lower than the tornado threat, but they're both still there. And obviously, we're going to see at least two, maybe three rounds of storms on Tuesday.

[00:10:35]and the ground's still pretty saturated, which means we'll have to keep an eye on that flooding potential as well. So, top of the list is damaging winds. Second on the list is flooding, heavy rain, you know, same thing. And then we've got the tornado potential and the hail potential still there. Still there for sure. Um especially if you get those isolated cells like I keep talking about. So, here's the updated severe weather risk map. Again, this was updated about 3:30 this afternoon. This is fairly new, by the way, from the Storm Prediction Center, uh, where they send out multiple updates of the day three severe weather risk map. They used to only do one update a day. Now they do two, which is awesome. But you see, it's not so awesome that the risk has been upgraded for a lot of us, unfortunately. So, here we go.

[00:11:27]Basically, everybody is now under that enhanced risk, that level three risk on the one to five scale. So this is substantial. We got to we really need to pay attention to this.

[00:11:38]This includes the city of Louisville, Etown, Barkstown, Lebanon, Campbellville, uh Brandenburg, Cordon, Jeffersonville, Salem, Madison, Carolton, Lraine, Shelbyville, Frankfurt. Uh so that's a level three enhanced risk for severe weather on Wednesday or Tuesday. Excuse me.

[00:11:58]Tuesday. I don't know why I just said Wednesday. I apologize. Tuesday.

[00:12:02]Tuesday. Tuesday. Tuesday level three risk from that one to five scale. Um I don't have a breakdown yet of each individual threat, but I guarantee you that enhanced risk is for wind for damaging wind. Uh as in that's the top issue that we've got to watch. Now further to the west technically Lichfield, Hardensburg, Poli, Bedford, Jasper, you guys are under a level two risk for severe weather, a slight risk.

[00:12:38]You all know how I feel about the exact specific risk that you're under, especially when you're right on the battle line between the two. Don't get hung up in it. Okay, this is going to be a rather widespread substantial severe weather potential for us Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday evening as we see with the level three risk. Again, I think this is mainly going to be a damaging wind threat, but the tornado risk will still be there as we head into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. So, most of the region now, including Louisville, is under a level three enhanced risk. Okay, here is Futurecast. I had the hardest time trying to decide which Futurecast model I wanted to show you all tonight, and I decided to go with our in-house graph model. Um, mainly because two reasons. One, it performed decently this weekend, and two, I have more of a time frame I can show you right now. Okay, so here's seven o'clock Tuesday morning.

[00:13:45]Okay, we're good. No problems. However, what we are going to have to watch as we head into the late morning hours of Tuesday, so like 10 11:00 a.m., is going to be a potential a potential cluster of storms that appears to mainly go to our north and east. This again around midday Tuesday, 10, 11, noon.

[00:14:13]The first potential round of storms looks as though it'll go mainly north and east along Interstate 71 up into Ohio.

[00:14:22]That is critical. Wherever this first round of storms goes late Tuesday morning is going to decide the rest of the day. Right.

[00:14:33]Obviously, if these storms move in later in the morning, it's going to take a while for the atmosphere to recover for the afternoon and evening, you would assume, which may not a guarantee, but it may ease the severe threat later in the day.

[00:14:55]However, in this scenario, uh the bulk of the late morning storms stay up towards Cincinnati and Columbus.

[00:15:02]possibly clipping you guys up near Carolton and Bedford, Kentucky, up towards Treble and Carroll County, maybe into Madison, too.

[00:15:13]So, it looks as though this first late morning round, we're going to kind of get a glancing blow from these showers and storms. Which means for a lot of us, if this track holds with these morning storms, we've got hardly anything going on. So that's going to push our high temperatures solidly into the 90s, 92, maybe 93 if we stay dry. That's going to push the humidity very high. That's going to give us a heat index in the triple digits in all likelihood.

[00:15:47]And that of course will just allow the atmosphere to become a powder keg if we stay untouched. Right?

[00:15:55]So that's the first piece of the puzzle is we got to figure out exactly where these morning storms on Tuesday are going to go. Right now most of them go northeast.

[00:16:05]Here's the caveat with that though. As we go into the afternoon, the alert day kicks in at two.

[00:16:13]Most of that early round of storm stays east. I75 points east. So Cincinnati, Lexington points east. But if you look closely, some storms try to develop in our area right on top of us.

[00:16:28]That's when things could start to get a little rocky.

[00:16:32]Especially if you get these isolated cells that try to fire up out there by themselves, those could quickly become supercells.

[00:16:43]which could rotate and maybe have some larger hail too.

[00:16:50]But again, if that morning round of storms goes over us instead of up towards Cincinnati, then we may have a lot of time on Tuesday afternoon where we're just reloading or waiting to reload. So that's 2 p.m. Tuesday.

[00:17:06]Here's 400 p.m. And it look it doesn't look that impressive on the regular radar. I know.

[00:17:14]And you also see that a lot of you are going to get missed by these storms, especially maybe up towards Bedford and Seymour. You all may not see much of anything.

[00:17:25]But any of these storms that can fire up Tuesday afternoon could get severe very quickly with all hazards, wind, spin-ups, large hail, and if we see repetitive rounds of storms kind of developing over the same spots until the cold front moves through, then we'll have a flooding risk develop later into the evening. So that's 400 p.m.

[00:17:48]There's six again. Some of these cells got to watch it. Got to watch it carefully.

[00:17:57]There's 9:00. You see we're kind of shifting that threat later into the evening south of the parkways.

[00:18:06]10 11 p.m. mainly down towards the Tennessee state line. And by midnight we can all go to bed. I feel confident in saying this will not be an overnight severe weather event. I can now say that with a good bit of confidence. This does not look to be an overnight severe weather event. So that's good.

[00:18:25]And it doesn't look as if, you know, I backtracked here to 3:00 Tuesday afternoon. It doesn't look like we're going to see severe storms everywhere.

[00:18:38]Again, some of you may not see a drop of rain. But where we do see these severe storms, they will be intense. They will have damaging wind gust upwards of 60 to 70 mph. They will have heavy rain and they could spin and they could have some large hail. So, all modes are on the table. Um, unfortunately, if you made me pinpoint a more focused area that I'm concerned about, it would quite honestly be your Kentucky counties.

[00:19:09]It would be, let me one second here. It would be basically along and south of the river kind of in this zone, right? Which lines up pretty well with the storm prediction center map, right? Where that enhanced risk is. So I, you know, everybody needs to be on guard. Everybody needs to just, you know, keep in the back of their minds that it's going to be a rough go Tuesday afternoon.

[00:19:40]More specifically, if I lived in Kentucky, I would really be on guard for these storms. You may not see storms, but if you do, they're going to get intense quickly. 2:00 p.m. to midnight as it stands.

[00:19:57]So, that's kind of the early look at where we are at this point. I wish I could give you even more specifics. I did my best to give you some tonight. I hope it's helped a little bit. But this um this again, we we had this once every few summers where you get a uh where you get a spring-l like synoptic or big picture storm system that you usually see in April in the middle of July. I can distinctly remember one six years ago, eight years ago, eight years ago, July of 2018.

[00:20:36]um those like this. So, it happens from time to time, which is why it kind of raises our guard a little bit like, oo, we need to really keep an eye on this because you're talking about a storm setup that you usually see in April or May with the storm fuel and instability and moisture that comes with late July.

[00:20:57]that can make things um I don't want to say explosive it but it kind of does make these storms really take off quickly. You might go from a nice hot afternoon to a big old hail storm or a spinning storm in 30 minutes on Tuesday. So everybody's got to be really on their tippy toes Tuesday afternoon uh and Tuesday night. So that's where we are at this point. 2 a uh excuse me 2:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m. uh is that alert day window for Tuesday as it stands. Now, if it becomes more apparent that that morning round of storms will impact more of our area, then that alert day could get moved up to include basically the entire day. But right now, um I'm still going to focus on 2 p.m. to midnight for the worst of these storms. Um, there's the 10day.

[00:21:53]The end is in sight. Briefly, briefly.

[00:21:58]Uh, we get much cooler on Wednesday and we get much less humid as well. Yeah, look at that. Love to see the blue. Love to see the blue on the humidity map. All that blue. All of that blue. That means it is extremely comfortable. It'll feel more like September as opposed to late July when you're factoring in that nice refreshing feel in the air. If you made me pick a day that is like the number one pick, I would say Thursday because the humidity levels will be even lower than they are Wednesday. Wednesday looks great, but Thursday looks even better at this point. Um 84 Wednesday, 83 on Thursday. I've got lows in the 60s Thursday morning and Friday morning.

[00:22:48]That's in Louisville, though. If we get mostly clear skies, some of you may be in the upper 50s uh Thursday morning and Friday morning.

[00:22:58]Don't bank on it. Most of you will be in the 60s, but a few 58s or 59s can't be ruled out in uh the rural parts of Wave Country. we get into next weekend, still some questions as to what kind of u rain chances we might be contending with. I'm going to lean towards a dry forecast or a drier forecast for now, but we start to heat things up. We go back into the upper 80s uh next weekend with just more of your popup chances than anything else.

[00:23:28]So, let's get through.

[00:23:31]Let's power through Tuesday and we can take a bit of a breather.

[00:23:37]um which we don't usually get in late July. Usually if we get a breather, it's in August, but we got that breather coming up at the end of this week. No complaints here.

[00:23:50]Okay. Uh fire away. What questions, comments, thoughts, concerns, complaints, critiques do you have?

[00:23:58]Hopefully, uh hopefully not too many critiques.

[00:24:06]Uh, let's see. Hi, Blue. Yeah, Carrie, it was a nice day. If you if you didn't see any storms today, it it was a really nice day. No doubt. Um, and most of us didn't, right?

[00:24:19]Hi, Marian. Good to see you.

[00:24:22]WeatherGeek, I'm trying. I am trying to get rid of this heat. I'm over it.

[00:24:28]Uh, hi Teresa. Good to see you. Gary's here. Hope all is well up in Pee-Wee Valley. Christy, hello.

[00:24:36]Uh, yes, weather you can wear. Air you can wear. That's how I like to describe it. Um, yeah, we'll take whatever break we can get.

[00:24:47]Shondaa, good to see you.

[00:24:50]Hey, Michael. Any rain next weekend? We mentioned it briefly. Uh, I think it's a there's a small chance. Um, but I do think right now there's going to be a lot more dry time than not next weekend, which is good. Selfishly, if that holds, I can't wait.

[00:25:10]Um, hi Joslyn. Good to see you. DJ King, hello.

[00:25:18]Hopefully I gave you some good news, Ashley, about the end of the week.

[00:25:22]Tuesday, not so much, but the end of the week looks great. So, take that.

[00:25:27]Hi Tanya, good to see you.

[00:25:35]Uh yeah, Donnie, that that storm did have great it had a great look to it yesterday. That that one around this time last night that went through Valley Station had a kind of a a mother ship look to it with that shelf cloud, right?

[00:25:49]Um it was awesome. As long as you were inside, it was awesome, right, Cody?

[00:25:54]Good to see you, man. Hope all is well.

[00:25:57]Sue, hello. Melody's here. Yeah, we mentioned that haze kind of because of the a little bit of smoke. Just a tiny bit. Not not like we had a few days ago up in the Northeast, but just a tiny bit. No air quality concerns.

[00:26:13]At least nothing out of the ordinary for what we're used to in late July.

[00:26:18]Uh, hey Sean. Meal prep. Jumbolaya. A little bit of protein.

[00:26:24]I like I like um Well, that's good, Allison. We're the entertainment while Allison gets dinner ready. That's awesome. We appreciate you stopping by.

[00:26:37]Uh, of course, Cameron, you're always You and Brian would be a dynamic duo.

[00:26:45]Cameron already talking about snow. No, there is no snow on the 45day grids uh yet. So, sorry everybody. Braden, hello.

[00:26:56]Jason, hello.

[00:27:00]Uh, let's see here.

[00:27:13]Um, I know Krispy, it's wild talking about supercells in July. And that's not out of the ordinary when you're talking about wind and hail, but when you've got a little more shear to work with, obviously that means tornatic supercells potentially.

[00:27:40]Um, so yeah, what questions do we have um about Tuesday or about anything that might be weather related?

[00:28:01]See, uh, let's see. I have to go to Charlestown, Indiana tomorrow night at 7 for Mount Washington. Well, I need to prepare for a lot of rain. Not tomorrow night. Tuesday night, yes. Um, but I think a lot of us stay dry tomorrow night and tomorrow period during the entire day.

[00:28:25]Uh Tanya, we appreciate you. Thanks for always trusting us. Means a lot.

[00:28:31]Uh yeah, you know, we we get these enhanced risk a couple days out from time to time, so it it really raises our uh our eyebrows that we need to pay attention to it.

[00:28:45]Uh Nikki, that's obviously always the question is, okay, if we're already under an enhance, does that mean we could be looking at a moderate or high?

[00:28:53]I don't foresee a high risk. I'll tell you that I would not completely rule out and again I'm not I'm not suggesting it's going to happen.

[00:29:04]But if we get more confidence in seeing a just a huge wall of wind on Tuesday, whether it's here or up in Ohio, I would not be shocked if they do put in a moderate risk zone somewhere. Maybe not here, but somewhere nearby.

[00:29:21]Um, so that's not out of the question, but I I think an enhanced risk is a good place to be at this point. And I do not see a high risk happening. No.

[00:29:37]Let's see.

[00:29:41]Well, Crystal, thank you for the kind words. We appreciate it. We're going to be here Tuesday night. I think um I think everybody will be working. It's my normal off day on Tuesday, but obviously if things go really haywire, I'll be here. Uh, but I'm sure, you know, Storm Talk blog will always happen. Um, Kevin and Ryan will do a live stream Tuesday evening if we still have trouble.

[00:30:03]Um, and obviously if we have to go do severe weather coverage in the big studio, we'll stream it here, too, like we always do.

[00:30:12]Uh, let's see.

[00:30:18]Hi Sam. Uh we're on vacation in Wisconsin trying to get away from the severe weather. Now we're in the middle of it. Yeah. This storm system that's affecting us on Tuesday is the same one that's affecting you guys in Wisconsin tomorrow. Uh so it's just going to keep progressing northwest to southeast over the next couple of days. So you guys will deal with it up in Wisconsin tomorrow and then it's our turn on Tuesday. Uh so be careful. Be careful.

[00:30:45]It's never fun to deal with severe weather when you're on vacation.

[00:30:48]I've dealt with it plenty of times. It's not fun.

[00:30:57]Yeah, that's that's the trade-off, right, Taran? Is there's no overnight severe weather concern. And I I truly do not see that this go round. Thankfully, I think by midnight to uh Tuesday night, we can all go to bed. Um I do feel fairly confident in saying that right now.

[00:31:14]Uh, let's see. Thank you, Mary.

[00:31:18]Appreciate you. Hopefully, it all made sense.

[00:31:26]Oh, yeah. There will be definitely plenty more updates. Um, like I mentioned, Brian will have the blog tomorrow morning.

[00:31:35]Um, and we'll be here updating you guys constantly on TV or here on the stream all day Tuesday like we always do. We will be here. Always, always, always.

[00:31:47]Uh, yeah, Braden, that's what I'm talking about. July 20th, 2018 had a very similar feel. There were some different dynamics with that system, but the same concept of a big scale storm system that we usually see in March, April or May with late July moisture and instability. It was a long night. I I was actually volunteering. I was a student at the time still at Western and I was volunteering at the weather service office here in Louisville that night. It was a It was a wild night, that's for sure. But something similar to that could happen again.

[00:32:24]mainly a wind issue, but some tornado warnings certainly possible, too.

[00:32:34]Uh, hey ZK. So, clear and good tomorrow, but Tuesday warnings all day. Hopefully not all day, mainly afternoon and evening. And keep in mind, guys, I know the haters are going to say stuff. I don't care. Not everybody is going to see storms on Tuesday.

[00:32:51]It's hard to say who's not going to right now. It'll be hard to say who's not going to see storms while it's happening on Tuesday.

[00:32:59]Uh but this is not a this doesn't look like a scenario where it is going to be a gigantic wall of wind for all of us.

[00:33:08]But any storms that do fire up are going to be intense and could get intense quickly.

[00:33:14]Um so there's that.

[00:33:26]Uh, hey Sean. Camping in Versailles, Indiana. What's your thoughts on the storms there?

[00:33:32]Similar mindset. Honestly, I maybe the threat's a teeny teeny tiny bit lower for you guys up there, but still still be on guard. Um, as we get into Tuesday, for you guys up in Versailles, Indiana, that might put you in more of the zone to deal with the late morning storms on Tuesday, too, in addition to anything that fires up in the afternoon or evening. Um, so just just take it easy. Uh, be careful. Just stay close stay close to the apps, stay close to the streams, uh, anything like that.

[00:34:10]Uh, thanks for stopping by, Lorine. We appreciate you.

[00:34:15]Um, any effects about tropical depression 2 in the Gulf?

[00:34:21]I, uh, actually updated the map earlier.

[00:34:24]So, we'll talk about tropical depression 2 real quick. 30 mph winds gusting to 40. Still really weak. Still not very well organized. The center is right here.

[00:34:37]Um what does it say about 200 miles southeast of uh Panama City? Yeah. So it's right about there. Uh the track would first of all have it become Bertha tonight or early tomorrow and eventually it looks like it's just going to go due west. If it makes a quote unquote landfall, it would probably be near Galveastston.

[00:34:59]Um, but it's just going to kind of ride offshore this week as it moves west. So, we'll have the risk for uh rip currents.

[00:35:11]will have the risk for uh rounds of heavy rain on the coast across the entire coast starting in Florida the next couple of days then going to Mississippi and Louisiana or excuse me Mississippi and Alabama by Wednesday, Louisiana by Thursday before what's left of it moves into Texas on Friday. Uh so if you if you're going on any trips along the coast from Galveastston to Panama City, don't cancel those trip plans. Just know you're going to have to deal with waves of rain. You may have some tropical storm force winds upwards of 45, 50, 60 miles an hour. Um, and I would not be surprised that the double red flags will be out on a lot of beaches for no swim because of rip currents.

[00:36:00]So, all in all, not a major ordeal, but it's only going to be our second name storm of the season, right? Uh, so it's worth talking about.

[00:36:18]All right.

[00:36:26]Uh, hi Tracy. Going to a concert at Eric Koy Amphitheater Tuesday night.

[00:36:33]Hopefully this holds off until after the concert. Well, what may work is we can get the storms out of Louisville by Tuesday night.

[00:36:43]Uh, we showed you on futurecast. Let me pull it back up here.

[00:36:49]Where the heck is it? There it is.

[00:36:53]So, notice by 7 o'clock Tuesday night, at least according to our in-house futurecast, we might be calming down in Louisville.

[00:37:02]It could still be very very busy down towards Etown and Bartstown, but here in Louisville, maybe we're improving by 7 o'clock Tuesday night. Uh let's hope that's the case so you can uh get that concert in without any issues, Tracy. Uh on Tuesday night, uh yeah, Ben, we kind of mentioned this a minute ago. It's hard to say and I know these comments are a little behind, but um I could see the SPC putting out a moderate risk somewhere maybe to our north and east, but I think for us an enhanced risk is a good call right now. I do not see a high risk.

[00:37:44]Yeah, we'll go through the timeline one more time. Natalie, I'd say 2 PM to midnight is like the worst of it.

[00:37:51]could still have some storms as you see here as early as 11:00 a.m. or noon.

[00:37:56]The worst of those storms right now look to be up in Ohio. Could still clip us.

[00:38:01]But it's 2:00 p.m. onward when these scattered storms start to fire up. And again, I don't I know they don't look that impressive, but trust me when I say in this kind of an environment on Tuesday, any storm that goes up is going to explode quickly. Um, like I said, it might be sunny and hot at 2:00 p.m. and at 2:30 you're under a severe thunderstorm warning or maybe a tornado warning if we're not careful. Um, so 2 p.m. to midnight, that's the general timeline. I'm not going to get into any more specifics than that right now because I want to see more more high-res data this evening and into tomorrow.

[00:38:46]And you see it's a In my opinion, it's mainly an issue along the Ohio River and points south. That's not to say if you're up in Seymour, you're good. You still need to pay attention, but the area of most concern is along the Ohio River point south in this zone.

[00:39:07]Um, so hopefully that helps uh Natalie and everybody. Appreciate you asking.

[00:39:15]Um, good question, Noodlehead. Is there a potential for long track tornadoes?

[00:39:28]I think the potential for long track tornadoes is low. I do think it is possible we could see an EF2. Yes, I do think it's possible we see an EF2.

[00:39:41]Will it be long track?

[00:39:45]Not necessarily, but it could still maybe get to that EF high-end EF1, lowend EF2 range on Tuesday with any tornadoes we may see.

[00:39:59]Uh, next Saturday is looking good for now. Michael, I'll pull up the 10day again.

[00:40:03]Uh, 20% chance for a popup, but other than that, I think for now, next weekend looks decent. Uh, let's hope that continues.

[00:40:20]Uh, hi Cassie. Question from Cassy's 12-year-old daughter. Awesome. How does the wildfire smoke affect the air temperature? Does it cause lower temps because it partially blocks the sun?

[00:40:33]Yes, generally speaking, is it a big impact? Not really.

[00:40:38]But there's been situations um where it could knock down the temperature by maybe two or three degrees.

[00:40:47]The models might suggest a high of I don't know 93, but it winds up only being 90. It's not a lot, but there is a little effect.

[00:40:56]Especially the more dense that smoke is, the more of a temperature effect you'll have for a day like today. Like for us here in Louisville, just that a little bit of haze, maybe a degree, that's about it. But um yeah, the thicker the smoke a lot of times, the slightly cooler that air temperature will be. So, good question, uh Cassie and 12-year-old daughter. Very good question. Appreciate you asking.

[00:41:25]Uh yes, Nikki. It has been a it's been a nice calm day.

[00:41:32]Um, relatively calm. I'll take it. We had uh some of our newscasts cancelled earlier this morning because we had golf on TV. So, I was able to get a nice extra extra long nap in today.

[00:41:46]Felt good.

[00:41:50]Are these storms to Tuesday going to be running north south or east west? Kind of in the middle. Kind of northwest to southeast. Um, on Tuesday.

[00:42:01]uh air quality alert you see coming out up towards uh Indianapolis.

[00:42:09]The smoke's a little more dense up there. And by the way, I would not be shocked if Louisville if the Metro Health Department puts out an air quality alert tomorrow for the city, but I mean you guys know those are pretty common. Um we're not talking about, you know, everybody has to stay inside kind of air quality. Just one of those where you might have to take it easy. It's possible. I'm not going to rule it out.

[00:42:35]Uh Jared, the main threat for us is damaging straight line winds on Tuesday.

[00:42:40]That's number one.

[00:42:44]When was the last time we had a week without an alert day? Um I got a list on my phone, so I'm going to look it up.

[00:42:53]It's been a while. Well, I mean this past week, technically.

[00:42:58]Technically, we have not had an alert day since last Saturday.

[00:43:08]So, feels like we should something should have happened, but uh yeah, it's just the way it works around the Ohio Valley, right? It's always something happening.

[00:43:23]Okay, few more comments. We're going to wrap it up. I don't want to keep youall here too terribly long. Um, yes, Brad Wavy is definitely going to be busy on Tuesday. Uh, no, Gary, we do not have to worry about tropical rains here from Bertha or soon to be Bertha.

[00:43:40]Uh, hail concern.

[00:43:44]There could be some larger hail with any supercells, Austin, like golf balls potentially. That's that's a lower-end threat, though. Number one threat's damaging wind. Number two threats heavy rain. Number three threat is tornadoes.

[00:43:59]Uh yeah, we're always here on Sunday nights, even if it's quiet. I do this live stream usually in the 7:00 hour on Sunday nights, Saturday nights and Sunday nights, both weekend nights. Um a little early tonight because I know a lot of you had a lot of questions. So, um, Ethan, I wouldn't say Bedford's completely out of the storms on Tuesday.

[00:44:26]I just personally think the higher severe weather threat is south of you guys. You could still have strong storms in Bedford, Indiana on Tuesday.

[00:44:36]My gut feeling at this point is the worst of the storms stayed just south of you, but you still need to keep your guards up until we can uh give you more specifics and more more precise timing um as we get closer.

[00:44:58]Tuskin chicken, man, y'all making me hungry.

[00:45:04]Uh again, glad we were able to entertain you through dinner, Alison. We we appreciate you watching. Uh Cassie, tell your daughter thank you for the question. It was a great question and uh glad to answer it.

[00:45:20]Uh thanks, Steve. We appreciate you guys in southern Indiana. Um southern Indiana's under the alert day, too. Remember, uh with most alert days, they they do cover everybody that we serve. They cover all 34 of our counties. There's there's some instances where the alert day may only be for like southern Kentucky or southern Indiana.

[00:45:41]This one though covers all of us uh for the time being. But uh we appreciate you guys.

[00:45:57]Yeah, that that's the key right there, Nikki. And thank you for the kind words is proactive. Um, we don't issue alert days for hype or to scare you. We we have a very rigid criteria like this is the absolute baseline that you can consider an alert day.

[00:46:16]Um, and we're very strict on that because we we don't we do not want to become a station that issues alert days just because it's raining outside because if every day is an alert day, then no day is an alert day. So, we really use those to get your guys attention. It's like, hey, when you're out and about on Tuesday, just pay a little extra attention to the weather and pay a little extra attention to what we're talking about, right? Uh so that that's how you can be proactive with the these kind of situations. And that's our goal to keep you guys informed. We, you know, they Friday the the risk came out for Tuesday and I was working Sunrise. Brian came in like, "Yeah, we're going to have to pull the trigger on Tuesday." And here we are. So, but we appreciate you guys. Few more. We're going to wrap it up here.

[00:47:07]Um, thanks ZK. Tell your cousin thank you for watching us. And you too, ZK.

[00:47:20]Always.

[00:47:22]Uh right now Tuesday scheduled to be my off day um or an off day, but obviously if we've got a you know serious situation going on that I'm going to come in. But um as far as I know, everybody else will be here. So we got you covered all all day and all night Tuesday.

[00:47:46]I think if we do see any tornadoes, they would be more of the EF1 variety.

[00:47:51]There could be an EF2, however. I'm not going to rule that out. I think most of them would be in the EF0, EF1 range, but I'm not going to rule out a two.

[00:48:04]Uh Jeremy, hello. Will the storms get stronger as they go into southern Kentucky? They're going to hit a sweet spot, I think, right between the Ohio River and Bowling Green. That's going to be kind of their sweet spot for when they're most intense. As they slide south of Bowling Green down towards Tennessee, I think they're going to weaken because we'll lose the heat of the day by then. But we're kind of in that sweet spot, unfortunately, especially on the Kentucky side of the river uh to see some pretty potent storms it looks like on Tuesday. All right, y'all. That's going to do it. I hope this has helped.

[00:48:42]Hopefully, it's eased your minds just a little bit. Hopefully you're you're not stressed out. There's no reason to be.

[00:48:49]We're good. We're going to be fine. We always are. Um the whole crew will be watching it. And you know, we'll have a lot more specifics tomorrow. A lot more.

[00:49:02]Hopefully I gave you enough to kind of give you a frame of reference of where things might be heading. We'll have more fine-tuning as we go through the day tomorrow. And obviously we'll be tracking those storms uh all day on Tuesday. So, thank you all for tuning in. As always, our next newscast is tonight at 11. If you're still up, we invite you to tune in. And of course, Brian will be back with Storm Talk tomorrow morning. Thanks for watching, guys. Have a great week. Stay safe and uh enjoy the break in the heat and humidity once those storms get out of here. Enjoy it. See you later. Heat.

[00:49:40]Heat. N.