Tropical Storm Bertha moves to Land...

[00:00:00]Bertha is weaker. Thank you for joining me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. It is Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026. First glance, this may look impressive. You got this big blob here, but the center of this is sitting way the heck up here.

[00:00:15]There's a ton of wind shear. Winds way above our heads coming across just ripping apart some of the developing rain and storms as they try to build up.

[00:00:23]Those winds push it all down to the south so it can't kind of wrap around the center. That is a good thing. Wind shear definitely our friend as we go throughout the hurricane season. But I want to cover the windshare uh not just the windshare, excuse me, the storm surge on that in just a moment. Some of the impacts we are going to see. We're going to zoom down. Here is Fouto. This in the eastern Pacific. This a hurricane getting stronger. It will get closer to Hawaii. So, we'll track that. Here we are in the Bahamas and off to the east of the Bahamas. See a little moisture here. It's kind of an upper level spin.

[00:00:54]So, not tropical in nature, but we may catch a couple showers. Meanwhile, we are waiting on some tropical waves to move into parts of the Caribbean. We don't want development. We know that, but we do really need some rain. Uh, as we work our way forward, we will see a tropical rain or tropical wave approach.

[00:01:10]We'll cover that in just a moment. But again, let's begin with where we have development. Here is the center of this thing. So, here's Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Panhandle, Florida. Winds right now at about 45 to 50 miles per hour. So, about 80 kilometers an hour the center here. But I showed you the big blob down here.

[00:01:28]Now, it's just going to work its way kind of making a first landfall over the next few hours, working its way into New Orleans this afternoon and then just whatever is left of it. It may completely fall apart, but whatever's left of it just kind of drifts toward the Houston and Bowmont area. Know that I'm watching it. If anything kind of strange happens, I'll let you know. The center may redevelop. So, you may hear some other entities kind of latch onto that like the center is redeveloping. It is so disorganized, which is a good thing. Sometimes the center almost jumps around. That's a possibility. I'll show you that in just a second. But you see here in this orange shading, those are the tropical storm force winds and most of it just sitting over the open waters kind of clipping by coastal Alabama uh right now and we'll see that working into coastal Mississippi, parts of southeastern Louisiana. Tropical storm warnings are up for a good measure.

[00:02:15]Makes sense. It is a tropical storm and we are watching out for that storm surge. You see the modeling making that kind of first initial landfall uh southeast of Louisiana and then whatever is left of it just kind of working its way toward Texas. We'll see if it hangs together. The center may actually jump down to the south. That sometimes happens because it is so disorganized uh right now. Now you see the modeling.

[00:02:37]Here's a look at the FNV3. Pretty solid model for track. Still generally on track and we'll see if the center does kind of pop its way down to the south.

[00:02:44]If it does, there's still wind shear.

[00:02:46]So, even if the center does reform to the south, I'm not seeing this strengthening in any big fashion. And again, uh you'll get the well, if you're subscribed, you don't need to subscribe, but if you are subscribed, you'll get those notifications when I put out a new video. If I see anything changing throughout the day, I'll let you know, but I'm not just going to throw out additional videos uh to do so. Again, trying to give you the uh correct information. Now, as we work our way over the next 24 hours, this is over the next 48 hours. You see here a lot of the models kind of hold the strength and then eventually with some interaction of uh some a little higher, some a little lower, but with some of the interaction of land uh and that windshare eventually just weakening in two days. You see this model here, this one always is on the high side, right? That one is always uh often almost all the time way too high.

[00:03:34]So most of the model inconsistent. It could fluctuate in strength. We'll see if the center reforms. Uh but then we should get substantial uh weakening as we go over the next 24 hours. So here's the center. This is about 10 11 o'clock this morning. Big blob of rain to the south. Now with that said, we still get some of the rainbands pumping in, but that wind shear really cranking up, moving that big blob of rain over the open waters. But be mindful again, we could get some gusty winds at times, panhandle of Florida, uh back toward Mississippi and Alabama. Even an isolated water spout is a possibility.

[00:04:06]We will see some rain just clipping southeastern uh sections of Louisiana.

[00:04:10]Here's New Orleans. The center should be almost on top of New Orleans or nearby uh by 5:00 p.m. And there are some of the bands of rain. So, not diminishing that in that again, gusty winds, isolated brief tornado possibility.

[00:04:23]Then, as we work our way forward, if I just showed you this on a on a regular day, you'd be like, "What tropical system?" Well, by the time we get into tomorrow morning, the center sitting uh near Lafayette, New Iberia, or maybe it sits over here, uh because it is so disorganized, sometimes the center redevelops over water, which sometimes can be a problem as it feeds off the warm water temperatures, but there's so much windshare. Even if the center kind of moves back over water, I'm just not seeing crazy uh redevelopment out of this. This is by tomorrow afternoon.

[00:04:52]Where's the center? Maybe somewhere in here. So, maybe it jumps down here.

[00:04:55]Maybe it's still up here. blob of rain with the windshare though still over the open waters. Here we are in Lake Jackson, Houston, you get over toward Bulma and then as we work our way forward, whatever is left of this will bring some rain as we work our way into Thursday night, Friday, getting into parts of uh Texas and still watching parts of uh Louisiana. So, this has not done anything strange. This has been on track. That's why we have been in monitor mode, not action mode. I value your time and your resources very much.

[00:05:23]It is a pain in the neck uh to try to I want you to save obviously I'll let you know if we ever need to take action but it's a pain in the neck to get ready and then nothing happened. Now watching this you see right here's the center of this as we work our way forward. This is 10 this morning. Here's your time frame and you can see again it starts to move in kind of that first initial landfall if you will with this area working its way anywhere from cut off back toward New Orleans. Uh the center in here still some of those gusty winds. is we could get winds along the coast gusting 40 50 55 mph. That is a possibility. Then trying to find the center. I have these I know these arrows are a little bit small but uh a little bit of a circulation right through here right near New Iberia. And then as we work our way forward into uh later tomorrow, tomorrow afternoon, finding a center.

[00:06:11]This is hard. Maybe it's sitting uh right about here, but again it may jump down to the south. Uh and then as we just work our way to uh tomorrow night uh early Friday, there's not really a center of this at this point, but some of that moisture moving its way back toward uh Bowmont and of course the choppier seas. Now, I mentioned we're in monitor mode, not action mode. The exception has always been if you happen to live, have interest, or have uh business right along the coast and you know the spots. I trust your judgment as we watch a bit of a surge. anytime you've got just a circulation sitting out there, even a weak one. And this is a tropical storm, uh, you do get that kind of push of water. So, uh, Mississippi, Alabama, uh, border swinging back toward the mouth of the Mississippi. You could see about 2 to four feet elsewhere. Generally, 1 to three feet for that surge. And you know your spot. So again, that's where we need to take that very localized action.

[00:07:03]Always mindful of the surge, never diminishing that. Then we got this over here. This is Fstone, by the way. Costa Rica, Panama overnight. Some spots of Panama, other spots of Costa Rica, really heavier rain. I bring that up and not only because that's what's happening now, but that moisture builds off.

[00:07:18]Another system's going to develop here.

[00:07:20]There's some rain over toward Jose Monteneo, back toward Aapokco, but here is Fausto. Here's Hawaii. And this is going to get even stronger. Winds right now at about 85. Should top out around 100 miles per hour. Uh, so we're going to see this thing kind of popping up in intensity. Now, here's Hawaii back here.

[00:07:38]As it approaches though down the road, once we work our way uh into uh the weekend and then as we work our way into next week, it is going to get weaker.

[00:07:48]So, shortterm, I expect the strengthening uh and then eventually as it approaches, there are cooler waters.

[00:07:54]So, I do expect it to weaken. Most of the modeling has it to the north of Hawaii, whatever's left of it. Couple others bring it closer. We'll see if any of the remnants move in, but at this point, no big uh alarms, no big red flags for Hawaii. It is something I'm watching. I will track these storms start to finish. You see the general strengthening and then once it enters into cooler water, 72 hours out, 3, four, 5 days out, we start to get the weakening out of that. That all makes sense. Now, meanwhile, we have some of the dust around. Uh we've got some of the dust uh pushing back toward uh the Bay Islands, Honduras, Cayman Islands, uh seeing some of the dust. ABC Islands, uh, parts of Columbia, Venezuela, St. Lucia, Barbados. Let me jump ahead a little bit here. Another round of dust is going to be moving in. This here is Friday, so a couple days from now. Uh, Jamaica, Haiti, the DR, Puerto Rico.

[00:08:39]Again, US, British, Virgin Islands, St. Kits, and NeAs, Monzerat, St. Bastia.

[00:08:44]Uh, pick your spot, St. Martin, St. Barts. More thick dust is moving in on Friday across the Eastern Caribbean.

[00:08:50]Heads up on that. Now, trying to find some of the rain. Couple spotty showers for us turned down Tobago. Uh some of us seeing the sun as well. That X there, you see that green? That's actually the dust. It is so thick that the model does pick up on that popup shower storm possible. Jamaica, Cuba, and here's some of the rain parts of Costa Rica and Panama. Not everyone getting it, but again, like last night and this morning, some of it's heavy. I'll be watching your comments. Let me know if you're seeing any of that moisture. Very active pattern from Colombia back toward the west. There's some of the dust right there. That's the dust that's going to be moving in on Friday. You see it there and Guilla, Antigga, Barbuda. Some of that dust will be moving in. So, let's jump ahead. Still some spotty storms.

[00:09:31]Uh, Cuba, Haiti, the DR, uh, Jamaica, one or two near the Cayman Islands. By Friday, though, we have that dust moving in, but also keeping an eye on the next tropical wave. Some of these are starting to hang together, which would be good news since we need to get some rain and the moisture building back toward the western Caribbean, including Nicaragua, Provenencia, San Andreas, trying to draw up toward Honduras and Biz on Saturday. We'll see if this shakes out. Uh hopefully uh we get some rain in needed spots. There's the next tropical wave. Uh which is good. We're finally starting to see some rain getting closer, but with that said, it is going to run into that dry air and dust. So, I think it's going to diminish a little bit by the time we get into Sunday, but we are starting to see these stronger tropical waves coming off the coast of uh Africa and gradually or at least somewhat hanging together.

[00:10:16]Meanwhile, we've got Fasto out here.

[00:10:18]will go out in time and I mentioned that moisture coming out of Costa Rica and Panama that will build. There is Bertha sitting in the northern Gulf working our way forward. Let's take ahead. Here's Hawaii. Fausto again is going to get close strengthening and then still a hurricane. And then as we work our way towards Saturday, still a system, but dry air starts to get in. We start to see some weakening as it approaches Hawaii. Then we'll keep an eye on this the next system here. This one may swing a little bit more to the north. So we'll keep an eye on that. Hopefully they just stay over the open waters, but we'll be watching out for that new system as well uh behind Fasto. So, here's uh Bertha and then watching out for some of the scattered areas of rain, even thunderstorms. Quebec, Ontario, back through New Brunswick, New uh Newf Finland, uh parts of uh New England, Maine, a couple showers. We had that severe weather as expected. We were highlighting that. The Northeast, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, some isolated tornadoes yesterday, some flooding, and that front just hangs out today and tomorrow. Look at North Carolina in particular. Lots of rain back through the Outer Banks. That front hanging all the way from New Finland uh back toward the Carolinas, even South Carolina, Atlanta on Friday getting some of the rain. Southeast United States Friday into Saturday more active with scattered areas of rain. Now watching the seas on our 3-day loop here in particular back toward the northern Gulf where some of the seas running at about 3 to 3 and 1/2 meters. So 10 maybe 12 feet in spots with Bertha that is sitting out there.

[00:11:40]And of course that does play into the storm surge. Looking at some of the rain. Again, the heaviest over the open waters, but still coastal sections of Louisiana, we could see some spots uh two to about 4 in of some rain and an inch or two in some of the rainbands. Uh for us across the Bahamas, watching out for some of that moisture that I mentioned that is sitting off toward uh the east. We may see a shower or two, but still 10 maybe 15 millimeters of rain. Back through the peninsula of Florida. Yes, a few showers and storms, but with Bertha well off toward the west. Central South Florida, rain chances not too terribly high. Still an inch or two if you get a thunderstorm.

[00:12:15]Cuba, that's where we're going to see a little bit more. Some spots 3 to 4 in 75 to 100 millimeters of rain. Jamaica, if we catch a shower in some spots, again, about 25 millimeters of rain will be a possibility. Pop-up shower storm Hispanola working its way back toward Puerto Rico. But in this area, again, I mentioned the dust. The rain chanc is not zero, but we've got that next round of dust that is going to be moving in by the time we get into Friday. We have some of the dust around in spots.

[00:12:40]Trinidad and Tobago. We'll see a better chance of a couple showers. May clip us by, maybe a shower, uh St. Vincent, the Grenardines, but just not much. Cernom and Guyana, we've been drier. Venezuela back through Colombia, some pockets of rain. Here are these pockets back toward parts of Costa Rica uh in particular.

[00:12:56]Not everyone in Costa Rica, but some spots that over the next few days with all of that moisture around could see upwards of 150 millimeters of rain or 6 ines of rain. Watching out for some of the flooding and then that moisture will be drawing to the north as we work our way toward the end of the week. And you see Falsto uh that is sitting out here that will continue to make its way generally toward Hawaii and then watching back toward Virginia over toward the Carolinas especially parts of North Carolina. uh North Carolina, the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Corala Duck looking at some spots of six, seven, eight inches of some additional rain, more flooding, kind of a sloppy mess. So, Jamaica, we're looking at about a 30 to 40% chance of a shower storm. Let me know if you get some. We had a couple around yesterday in spots.

[00:13:38]We may get a few around again for today across the Cayman Islands, Grand Little and Brack. Rain chance running 20 to 30, 30 to 40% chance back through Trinidad, Tobago. A little higher tomorrow. Couple showers starting to pop up, but you see Barbados, we're looking at a 20% chance.

[00:13:53]And we have the dust. I appreciate some of the comments you've been sending me.

[00:13:56]Barbados back through St. Lucia. Next couple of days in St. Lucia, rain chance at about 20 30 to 40% chance in Grenada.

[00:14:02]Could see a couple passing showers tomorrow and running at that 30% chance.

[00:14:06]St. Vincent and the Grenades. Rain chance 20% in Martineique. It is low. Uh by Friday we're going to see more dust moving in dust surging back toward the Domin or toward Dominica excuse me 20 to 30% chance Guadaloop rain chance at about 24 today. So it is low 20% chance holds Antigga Barbuda 20% chance the next two days St. Kits and Neas and Moz in a 10 to 20% chance and Guilla and St. Barts next two days St. Martin Senatia rain chance staying very low at least over the next two days. Isolated pop-up shower storm possible back through Puerto Rico. May see one or two for parts of the British and US Virgin Islands could see a shower. And then you see by tomorrow with some of that moisture that is off to the east of us in the Bahamas. We may catch a couple showers. Rain chance will bump up to about 40% 10 to 20% chance back through the Turks and Caos. And we'll see a better chance of some afternoon showers and storms. Haiti and the DR as the week goes on. Not a not a ton, but there'll be a couple. It's definitely not enough.

[00:15:08]We are so dry, so hot. Rain chance 30% in Bise, but by the weekend, we'll see if any of that moisture starts to creep up to the north. It should. Aruba, Kiraas, Bonire. Rain chance holding at about 20 with some of that dust around the next few days. And you see that lower chance of rain, Guyana, Suridom, it's just not super high. holding at about a 30% chance of a shower. Some afternoon showers and storms possible though as we work our way back toward Cuba. Rain chance holding at about 60%.

[00:15:36]Costa Rica and Panama, a little higher in Costa Rica. And again, watching out for some of those areas of flooding that we have been highlighting. Nicaragua, rain chance 50%. Could build by the weekend and it should start to build by the weekend as well as we get toward Honduras. Guatemala, El Salvador, rain chance 40 to 50 the next few days. It's backed off a little bit around Mexico City. We're looking at a 40% chance and a 20 to 30% chance. Merida, Campe, Cancun, and CSML. Colombia, some pockets of heavier rain. 50 to 60% chance. 40 to 50% chance as we get back through Venezuela. Rain chance about 20 in Bermuda over the next couple of days.

[00:16:10]And again, the rain chance, not super high back through Central Florida, but some scattered areas of rain possible.

[00:16:16]40% chance. And that includes from Orlando back through Tampa. 30 to 40% chance back through South Florida. And then as we work our way across Houston, we'll see again what's happening with Bertha by Thursday night and Friday.

[00:16:29]We'll see a better chance of rain at least uh nearby. So Bertha highly sheared. That's a good thing. Center may reform to the south. We'll watch out for that coastal impact, some of the gustier winds, some of the overwash, some of the flooding in some spots. And again, watching out for that storm surge and still monitoring the earthquake activity. If you have any shaking, let me know and I'll keep an eye on that as well as we go throughout the day. I hope you're doing well. Be safe. Have a really good day ahead.