Netanyahu Faces MOU Blow

[00:00:00]What's the latest that you've heard about that ceasefire, that fragile ceasefire that that went in place yesterday?

[00:00:05]Well, to judge from that news summary, it would appear that US envoys, albeit not the vice president, one tier below, are headed out to Switzerland, the venue for those planned talks, well as potentially the Iranian foreign minister. So it would appear that rather than scuppering this entire diplomacy, what we had for Iran yesterday was a shot across the bow, if you like, not a parting shot, a warning shot. It would appear that the Israelis stayed put in Lebanon. It would appear that the Americans are not yet ready to insist that the Israelis move out of Lebanon, something that would really, unleash a crisis, perhaps an unprecedented crisis in recent years between the allies. So I expect that in the coming hours, perhaps by the close of the weekend, those talks in Lucerne will have started out at some level.

[00:00:52]Dan, I also wanna ask you, about the rhetoric. We talked, when you were with us last hour about this interesting turn in The US Israeli relationship. But you also have, your national security minister giving this kind of extraordinary tweet on Lebanon where he wrote, with all due respect to the all of Lebanon must burn, exclamation point. With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn. That, of course, was responded to by the Iranian foreign minister saying, essentially, this is not a rant by a random lunatic. You know, this is a public post by the national security of Israel's regime. Talk to us about the feelings inside, the Knesset inside Israel. Is this causing further divisions within Netanyahu's own party as to what to do following this MOU? Where do folks stand?

[00:01:43]Well, I think the, Israeli minister you cited, he's the far righteous. He's given such rhetoric.

[00:01:48]In fact, it's come to be expected of him, and it's worth remembering that Israel's in an election year. There's an election form and so on, so he could actually have his eye on his constituency when he makes those threats. Although I think many Israelis would share that opinion. Now if you get past the rather baroque rhetoric, what he's referring to is Israel's delimitation when it comes to actions against Hezbollah, specifically avoiding Beirut, generally avoiding, inland areas except, you know, the Beqar Valley, which was bombed by Israel yesterday, and restraining those attacks to Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon where Israel has created this six mile deep buffer zone. Some of the Israeli firmament think that shouldn't be the case. They think Hezbollah is not only undeterred, but it would have been emboldened by this MOU, which has basically been a lifeline for its sponsor in Iran and stands to bring funding new weaponry to Hezbollah. Hezbollah that until very recently was on the ropes in Lebanon. Indeed, within Israel, there is a great sense of shock and disappointment in this turn of events over the last week or week and a half. Trump plowing ahead, effectively trying to get the Americans, The United States out of this war that he launched together with Israel in full concert. If I'm not mistaken, there was full parity in terms of the number of air force sorties carried out in Iran between Israel and The United States. But all of a sudden in the last two weeks, Israel has not only not been included in those talks with Iran. It hasn't always been briefed on those talks with Iran. So the Israelis feel they've been given short shrift.

[00:03:20]They're in the Middle East. They'll remain in the Middle East. They took quite a bit of the brunt of the Iranian missiles during that attack. There were 26 people killed in Israel during, that war by, Iranian missiles. And, yes, Israel expects a potential potential generational face off with Iran, its odd tro, and more immediately, more pressingly, with Hezbollah, which is Iran's vanguard in Lebanon. So what you have is a very delicate, very unwieldy triangulation here of these peace talks. Iran will never make peace with Israel. It doesn't even like saying the word Israel. It generally prefers to call it the Zionist entity or such like. And at the same time, the Israelis are being called upon while not being part of the MOU to abide by the MOU in terms of what Iran, their arch enemy, would like to see them do or not do in Lebanon. It's very unwieldy. The Iranian the Israelis are basically laying down their battle lines. They're saying with bombs, with bullets, and with blood. Israeli and Lebanese blood. They're willing, and they must stay in Southern Lebanon for the protection of their northern communities.

[00:04:18]Dan, quickly before we let you go, what is your latest read on the status of the relationship between president Trump and prime minister Netanyahu? I should say, notably, we haven't heard from prime minister Netanyahu. He hasn't outwardly criticized what what's happened here to the degree that his cabinet members have, be they on the far right or or otherwise. What do you make of that? We we heard the president saying to Axios in in recent hours, that he keeps BB sane in his words. We had Sarah Eisenthal of CNBC traveling to Jerusalem where she asked the the prime minister just about the status of that relationship on the heels of a call in which he was cursed by the president of of The United States. What is your read in the minute we have left with you just of the status of that that relationship?

[00:04:55]This is extraordinarily embarrassing for Netanyahu. He's also running for reelection. He's really branded himself not only mister security for Israel, but mister statecraft, especially when it comes to handling The United States, massaging US public opinion, whoever's in the Oval Office. He's made very few. I think only twice appeared in public since his MOU was signed. He has also said in those statements that it's time to work on reestablishing, replenishing The US Israeli, relationship. However, I think what he's really hoping for is for this to blow over for the US president to find another focus for his vitriol. It's clear that Trump feels bruised by this war in Iran. It didn't go the way he had hoped. Perhaps it didn't go the way he'd been promised or reassured by Netanyahu. There is some bad blood there clearly. However, we've seen Trump is transactional, and frankly, he can turn on a dime, including on very recent critics or subjects of his criticism. I imagine there will be a restoration of those ties. The question is whether it will be enough to salvage Netanyahu's career and his reelection prospects.