How STRONG the PHILIPPINE AIR FORCE | Enough to Counter China's Aggression in WPS?

[00:00:00]Heat.

[00:00:04][music] Heat.

[00:00:20][music] Picture [music] this. It is April 8th, 2026. [music] Over the skies of Luzon, a small Philippine fighter jet, the FA50 PH pulls into formation beside an American F-22 Raptor. The F-22 is arguably the most advanced air superiority fighter ever built. The FA50 is a light jet that originally started life as a trainer.

[00:01:02]And yet, there they are side by side running real air combat drills together.

[00:01:08]That image says a lot about where the Philippine Air Force stands today. Not long ago, the Philippine Air Force was the subject of embarrassment. For years, the country sat in the middle of one of the most contested seas in the world, the West Philippine Sea.

[00:01:30]>> Without a single [music] combat jet capable of intercepting a threat, China was building artificial islands.

[00:01:37]Tensions [music] were rising and Manila's Air Force was flying decades old handme-downs.

[00:01:42]That era is ending slowly, imperfectly but clearly. In 2026, the Philippine Air Force is in the middle of the biggest transformation [music] in its modern history. New jets, new helicopters, new alliances, new exercises. The question is, how strong has it actually become?

[00:02:05]>> [music] >> To understand how far the Philippine Air Force has come, you need to know how low it once fell. When Ferdinand Marco Senior was removed from power in 1986, the Philippines had one of the best equipped air forces in Southeast Asia.

[00:02:27]It had real fighter jets, trained pilots, [music] and a functioning defense structure. Then came 30 years of neglect. The country faced internal security [music] threats, communist insurgencies, separatist groups in Mindanao, and the military's limited budget went almost entirely into fighting those battles. External defense was treated as someone else's problem.

[00:02:49]The United States had bases in the Philippines, and that American umbrella made investing in jets feel unnecessary.

[00:02:57]Then in 1991, the US left Clark Air Base and Subac Bay. The security blanket was gone. But the budget habits didn't change fast enough. By the mid200s, the Philippine Air Force had retired its last real fighter jets, the Northrop F5 Freedom Fighters, [music] and replaced them with nothing. For nearly a decade, the country that sits at the edge of the most disputed sea on Earth had zero combat jets. [music] That changed in 2015 when the Philippines signed a deal with South Korea for 12 FA50 PH light fighters. They were not ideal. Originally designed as advanced trainers, [music] but they were supersonic, armed, and a start. It was a beginning, but only a beginning [music] today. The FA50 PH is the backbone of Philippine air combat power and the Air Force is doubling down on it.

[00:04:06]In June 2025, the Philippine Air Force signed a contract with Korea Aerospace Industries, the same South Korean company behind the original jets, for 12 more FA50 PHs.

[00:04:18]This new batch is significantly upgraded. These jets will come with air-to-air refueling capability, advanced radar systems, and enhanced [music] weapons integration.

[00:04:28]Deliveries are expected to begin in 2026 and continue until 2030. When the full order is delivered, the Philippine Air Force will have 23 FA50s in its fleet, more than double what it started with.

[00:04:45]The cost of the 12jet deal was reported at around $690 million. The FA50 is not a heavy fighter. It flies at Mach 15, faster than sound, and it can carry air-to-air missiles, precisiong guided bombs, and carry out maritime patrol missions. For a country whose biggest security concern is an adversary building islands in its exclusive economic zone, that is exactly what it needs right now. In the words [music] of the PAF-5th Fighter Wing, "The FA50 PH has proven its versatility and reliability in various operations, and this expansion underscores the Philippines commitment to modernizing its defense forces and strengthening [music] regional security.

[00:05:29]But here is where it gets even [music] more interesting. In April 2026, the FA50 flew alongside the F-22 [music] Raptor during exercise COPE Thunder 261, a bilateral drill involving more than 2,800 [music] Philippine and American personnel across Northern Luzon. Running from April 6 to 17, FA50s and F-22s worked together on tactical air combat maneuvers over Basa Air Base. Two worlds met in that sky, light local jets and elite American stealth fighters.

[00:06:01]The point was not to make the FA50 pretend to be an F-22. The point was integration. When Philippine pilots fly with American crews, they learn how American forces think, communicate, and fight. That knowledge does not disappear after the exercise ends. And if a real conflict ever comes in the South China Sea, that shared experience could be the difference between a coordinated response [music] and chaos.

[00:06:33]>> [music] >> Fighting jets are only part of the story. In the island terrain of the Philippines, close air support, aircraft that fly low and strike ground targets to help troops in combat matters enormously. That is where the A29 Super Tucano comes in. The Super Tucano is a Brazilianbuilt turborop light attack aircraft. It is not fast. It is not flashy. But it is rugged, accurate, and built for exactly the kind of operations the Philippines needs. Coastal patrol, counterinsurgency, [music] precision strike in tight spaces, and increasingly maritime [music] interdiction.

[00:07:13]The Philippine Air Force first received six Super Tucanos in 2020, replacing the old OV10 Broncos that had served since [music] the Vietnam War era. At the Singapore Air Show on February 3rd, 2026, Brazilian defense company Embra officially [music] confirmed that the Philippines had ordered six more, bringing the total fleet to 12 aircraft.

[00:07:34]Embra had quietly announced the deal in late 2024 without naming the buyer. The Philippines confirmed the purchase in November 2025 during budget hearings despite some push back from senators who argued the money should go toward external defense jets [music] rather than counterinsurgency platforms.

[00:07:51]Defense officials disagreed as PAF spokesperson Colonel Ma Christina Basco said in late 2025, "These units will further strengthen our precision strike and maritime interdiction capabilities."

[00:08:07]Deliveries of the new batch are expected through 2026.

[00:08:11][music] If you want a single symbol [music] of the Philippine Air Force's transformation in recent years, look at the Blackhawk helicopter program. In January 2026, the Philippines formally accepted five more S70i Blackhawk helicopters at a ceremony at Villmore Air Base in P City.

[00:08:39]Along with the helicopters came 8 M1 134 HG Gatling heavy machine guns to arm them. These were the fifth batch of a 32 helicopter contract signed in 2022 with Loheed Martin Sorski Division.

[00:08:53]By January 2026, the PAF had received 25 of the 32 new Blackhawks under [music] that contract. When all 32 are delivered, they will join the 15 Blackhawks already in service from an earlier procurement, giving the Philippine Air Force a total fleet of 47si Blackhawks.

[00:09:18]That is a massive uplift [music] for a country that not long ago struggled to move troops quickly across its 7,000 islands during [music] disasters. To fill the growing pilot gap that comes with a larger fleet, the US State Department approved the sale of Bell 505 training helicopters to the Philippines in May 2026, [music] including simulators, maintenance support, and training pipelines for up to 22 aircraft. The idea is simple.

[00:09:43]Train more pilots on basic helicopters.

[00:09:45]keep the expensive Blackhawks free for actual operations.

[00:09:49]The Blackhawk is not just a combat asset. It is a disaster response tool in a country that sees typhoons, floods, and earthquakes regularly.

[00:09:59][music] During Typhoon Opal in late 2024, PAF Blackhawks flew rapid damage assessments over Kagayan.

[00:10:11]When a massive fire broke out in Tando, Manila in November of that year, Blackhawks flew 15 sorties for hella bucket firefighting operations. This aircraft serves the Filipino people directly [music] in war and in peace.

[00:10:36]A modern air force is not just fighters and helicopters. It needs to move people and equipment across vast distances quickly. For the Philippines, [music] an archipelago spread over 300,000 km of sea. Airlift is everything.

[00:10:53]In October 2023, the Philippines signed a deal for three brand new C1 and30J30 Super Hercules transport aircraft from Loheed Martin. These are not old handme-downs. The C130J is the latest [music] version of the legendary Hercules. More powerful, longer ranged, and with advanced avionics. [music] The stretch version ordered by the Philippines adds an extra 15 ft of cargo space compared to the standard model.

[00:11:19]All three aircraft are scheduled [music] for delivery in 2026. The PAF also expects deliveries of additional Casa NC212i light transport aircraft and Bell [music] 412 multiroll helicopters in 2026 and beyond.

[00:11:34]Together, these additions will strengthen the military's ability to move troops, supplies, and relief goods faster and farther across the archipelago.

[00:11:44][music] Here is the honest part, the part that matters as much as all the good news.

[00:11:57]The Philippines still does not have a true multiroll fighter jet. The FA50 is a fine light combat aircraft, but it was designed as a trainer first.

[00:12:07]Against a modern air force with advanced fighters, radar systems, and electronic warfare capabilities, the FA50 has limits. Manila knows this. For years, the Philippine Air Force has been trying to acquire around 40 multi-roll fighters, aircraft in the class of the American F-16 or the Swedish Grippon.

[00:12:26]In April 2025, the US State Department formally approved the potential sale of 20 F-16 Block 70 or 72 jets to the Philippines in a package valued at 5.58 billion. The deal would include missiles, radar systems, bombs, spare [music] engines, and technical support.

[00:12:44]That sounds great, but money is the problem.

[00:12:48]Defense Secretary Hilberto Teodoro threw cold water on the deal just [music] two months later.

[00:12:54]We have not even decided number one when we will acquire a multi-roll fighter and what model. He said in June 2025 in Singapore, he described early media reports about the F-16 [music] deal is hype. By early 2026, the picture had not changed much. As Defense News reported in February, the Philippines defense budget jumped [music] 12.3% to 310 billion pesos, roughly 5.35 billion [music] for 2026.

[00:13:22]But modernization funds were stagnated at around 40 billion pesos or about $691 million. In 2025, Congress had already cut the proposed modernization fund from 50 billion to 35 billion pesos, which derailed six separate projects. Of 188 projects under the three-phase Horizon modernization program, only 59 have been completed. The multiroll fighter remains on the wish list, but without a committed budget, it stays there.

[00:13:50]Teodoro has been candid about the frustration. He has argued for project-based budgeting and long-term loan financing, the kind of approach [music] that would let the Philippines buy expensive equipment over time rather than needing a massive one-time appropriation.

[00:14:05]Without that, he warned, the fighter acquisition could stall indefinitely.

[00:14:12][music] Here is something that gets missed in many analyses of the Philippine Air Force. The bilateral alliance with the United States is itself a form of air power. Cope Thunder 261 was not just a training exercise. It was a message.

[00:14:33]When American F-22 Raptors fly alongside Philippine FA50s over Luzon, the message to Beijing is clear. Attacking the Philippines means dealing with the United States. That deterrence factor does not appear on any fleet list, but it is real.

[00:14:49]The alliance has been deepening rapidly.

[00:14:52]In 2023, the two countries updated their bilateral defense guidelines, the framework document that defines how they cooperate. Training exchanges, joint exercises, and expanded operational activities [music] were all identified as central priorities. The COPE Thunder exercises have become an annual fixture with the 2026 iteration bringing more than [music] 2,800 personnel from both sides. Beyond exercises, the US has approved several arm sales that directly [music] strengthen Philippine air power.

[00:15:22]The F-16 proposal, the Bell505 training helicopters, and earlier approvals for Blackhawks and surveillance systems.

[00:15:33]Even when the Philippines has not yet pulled the trigger on every purchase, American political approval signals strategic trust, which matters in the diplomatic game being played in the South China Sea.

[00:15:47]>> [music] [music] >> So, how strong is the Philippine Air Force in 2026?

[00:15:58]The honest answer is strong enough to patrol, deter low-level threats, and fight alongside allies, but not yet strong enough to independently [music] defend Philippine airspace against a high-end adversary like China's People's Liberation Army Air Force. What the Philippine Air Force has right now is a layered improving force. It has fast jets for intercept and maritime patrol in the FA50. It has ground attack [music] punch with the A29 Super Tucano.

[00:16:26]It has an expanding helicopter fleet for mobility and disaster response. It has a growing airlift capacity with the incoming C130JS. [music] And it has a deepening partnership with the most powerful air force in the world. What it still lacks is a true multi-roll fighter with beyond visual range combat capability.

[00:16:48]It lacks an airborne early warning aircraft, a platform that can look hundreds of kilometers ahead and control the battle. It lacks [music] aerial refueling tankers that would let its jets stay in the air longer and cover more ocean. The comprehensive archipelagic defense concept, the Philippine military's guiding doctrine, [music] is built around deterring threats through a credible multi-layered defense for air power. That means the Philippine Air Force needs to [music] become genuinely capable in both quantity and quality, not just in bilateral exercises, but in solo operations. It is getting there, but the road is still long.

[00:17:32]There is a saying in strategic affairs, quantity has equality all its own. More aircraft, more trained pilots, more exercises, these add up. Even if no single platform is a gamecher. [music] In 2026, the Philippine Air Force is flying more missions, training with better partners, taking delivery of more modern equipment, and building deeper [music] institutional knowledge than at any point in the past three decades.

[00:17:57]That is not nothing. That is the foundation of a credible deterrent.

[00:18:01]Whether that foundation becomes a real fortress or remains a work in progress depends less on military hardware than on political will and budget [music] commitment. As Defense Secretary Teodoro put it, with a bluntness rarely heard from defense officials, "Give me the funds today, I'll make the decision."

[00:18:20]The sky over Luzon has changed.

[00:18:23]Philippine jets now fly with American Raptors. Blackhawks cover the disaster zones and the shipping lanes. Super Tucanos stand watch over the coastline.

[00:18:32]The question is no longer whether the Philippine Air Force is modernizing.

[00:18:36][music] The question is how fast and whether the money will keep coming. In the West Philippine Sea, China isn't waiting.

[00:18:46]If you found this analysis valuable, share your perspective in the comments.

[00:18:50]Your insights help deepen the conversation [music] and sharpen our understanding of evolving regional dynamics.

[00:18:56]Thank you and we will see you soon in our next geopolitical [music] discussion.

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