American Prestige is live: Iran MoU, your questions, and more

[00:00:00]everyone for [snorts] joining us as usual.

[00:00:03]Uh Derek, how's everything now?

[00:00:05]>> joining us? I don't know if anybody's joining.

[00:00:07]>> It doesn't look like anyone's here yet, but people watch it afterwards, so I'm pretending that they >> you think people will watch it afterwards?

[00:00:14]>> It does seem strange that there's zero people here. There usually are some people here.

[00:00:18]>> Yeah.

[00:00:18]>> Um But yeah, we tweeted it out, right?

[00:00:23]>> Uh yeah.

[00:00:26]>> Yeah, there's usually some people here.

[00:00:28]This is very strange.

[00:00:30]This is good. This is good. Derek, we're we're doing it. Oh, there's there's one person here.

[00:00:34]>> [laughter] >> Okay, we've got somebody.

[00:00:36]>> Hey, Sam Zang. What's up, man?

[00:00:38]>> going, man?

[00:00:39]>> Thank thank you so much. This is actually >> [laughter] >> We actually just lied about it leaving being a live stream. We actually just set this up to talk to Sam Zang.

[00:00:49]>> Yeah.

[00:00:49]>> And to a select >> select few people.

[00:00:52]>> [laughter] >> Select few people. Yeah, so we're going to talk about the World Cup this week, everybody. People usually come to us for their World Cup needs. Um But yeah, everyone, thank you for joining us.

[00:01:02]People actually usually wind up watching this after, so it's kind of funny that you're kind of reacting to uh the people who are here, but then >> There we go. There's there's some It's starting to fill up now.

[00:01:14]>> Th- This is for posterity, uh actually.

[00:01:17]I don't I don't do I don't do this for entertainment. This This is for the record.

[00:01:21]>> Okay.

[00:01:22]>> Um >> say so.

[00:01:24]>> So, there's actually a a bunch of type of foreign affairs news uh to talk about this week, which I guess is number one, the Iran deal and the G7 comments, which uh are were really really choice. Just just um Trump >> I I mean, I'm losing my mind. Like >> glimpse of the old man himself.

[00:01:46]>> He He's like He's talking about I mean, the people are asking about like you know, why why aren't the missiles in here? And he's like, "Well, it would be unfair and not to let Iran have some You You just went to war. You just went to war over this.

[00:02:01]>> He also said something about the nuclear >> And he And he said, "Well, you know, we got to let them have some enrichment.

[00:02:07]It's It's uh you know, for electricity.

[00:02:09]Like other countries could do enrichment, why can't Iran do enrichment?" And then he said, "You have to have some common sense about these things." You just went to war to stop them from enriching uranium. Are you kidding me?

[00:02:21]>> Uh >> It's incredible. I felt like I was losing my mind >> and >> all [clears throat] day. If he had If there had been a tweet that was like Donald Trump just uh said the Shahada and he's now a practicing Shiite, >> That's That's [laughter] what I said he was doing.

[00:02:34]>> I would have I would have absolutely believed it at that point. Like Are you Like what are we doing here?

[00:02:41]>> That was funny. So, Courtney, of course, my wife, everyone check her out on on Tik Tok at Gal de Board. She She did I think a really funny Tik Tok where she just like went through everything he said. It was really funny. Like it You got glimpses of 2015, 2016 Trump in there. I mean, >> Yeah, it was like the unfiltered like just saying things that you you're not supposed to say.

[00:03:03]>> Yes, just saying things that they're not supposed with Trump without heed to anyone, without heed to any Israel lobby or Netanyahu.

[00:03:10]And again, we're not going to know the reality behind this situation until and if the record um First Eric Schwer-word of 5 to 10 minutes given like 98 seconds.

[00:03:23]Um but uh I think What What do you think this What do you think this suggests?

[00:03:27]We're not really going to know, but does Does Is he annoyed with Israel? Is it just Trump? You can't know anything and he just says stuff sometimes. What do you take?

[00:03:37]>> you know, he's he's like It's hard to say cuz he on the one hand uh he's he's defending the deal and he's getting getting criticized pretty heavily for it from all the people who have been praising him for the last, you know, month, two month um, or three months. And and that's got to be jarring.

[00:03:58]And now he's getting criticized. So, he's like defending it. He's defending it on the basis of like uh, I had to do this to stave off economic catastrophe. It was the economic catastrophe that you brought on by doing it in the first place.

[00:04:14]But, like, he's he's got that. And then his other line today was like, "Well, you know, if I'm not happy with how it's going, I'll just bomb Iran again. Like, don't worry. Like, I'll just bomb them again."

[00:04:25]Which which is directly contradicts the first paragraph of the MOU. So, not only are we off to like this bizarre start where he's like just riffing on everything, but he's repudiating part of the actual text of the MOU before we've even like just as it was getting signed again, I guess for the second time. They had to do a second signing, electronic signing. But, like, before they've even done the formal signing or gotten anywhere like even broached the subject of these follow-on negotiations, he's already like advertising to the Iranians like, "Hey, you can't trust anything I say or do even when I put my signature on it cuz I'll just do whatever I feel like doing." So, it's it's really not off to a great start.

[00:05:12]>> Do you think they used DocuSign? I'm curious. Like, what do you >> Yeah, I'm I'm kind of curious. Yeah, what >> Cuz I'm pretty sure DocuSign Yeah, DocuSign just left its building in Seattle, which I believed is I believe is called the DocuSign building.

[00:05:26]So, they might be they might be up against it.

[00:05:30]Imagine investing in DocuSign in 2002.

[00:05:33]You'd be a you'd be a trillionaire. It's like like Elon like Elon Musk. Um >> Yeah, but did they do it a second time?

[00:05:39]Like, I can't figure this out. It was supposed to have been done on Monday.

[00:05:42]>> they did, right?

[00:05:43]>> And then they did it again. Uh, like they they said they did it on Monday, and Trump and Vance signed it, and Gallibof signed it on the Iranian side.

[00:05:52]But then they had to do it again, and Trump had to sign it, and Poseidon had to sign it, and Poseidon had like I mean it was like proof of life for him. Nobody's talked to him in, you know, 6 weeks at this point. He's just a non-entity. So I I don't I mean legally, I guess he's the president of the country, but I I don't I don't know why it was so important that they they get his signature on it.

[00:06:13]>> I don't know, man. It's so weird.

[00:06:17]Uh and I mean again, this is I think will be looked at macro-historically as part of this larger transition of power.

[00:06:24]Um and related to that, it might be interesting to talk a little bit about the domestic politics, which you have already gestured toward, which is that this obviously, whenever you talk about bombing Iran, it scrambles any type of left-right distinction, where someone like Chuck Schumer's like kind of okay with it, and then you have your Thomas Massie's and Iran wrote those two on on the right. But, you know, you have the up-and-coming coming generation of nationalist conservatives, and I mean that we actually are going to have an episode on that not this week, but I think the next week with a couple of guys who are part of the that sort of nationalist conservative camp, and and what this means for them.

[00:07:02]But, um what have you seen? Obviously, we've got the criticisms from the Lindsey Grahams of the world and the pro-Israel people. The Mike Huckabee criticized it as well, I believe, right?

[00:07:16]In between In between baseless >> Yeah.

[00:07:19]>> Huckabee like I mean he his thing was shocking cuz he's really I mean all US ambassadors to Israel wind up being Israel's ambassador to the US, but Huckabee is like on another level.

[00:07:33]And he What was his his comment was like the United States wouldn't exist without Israel? Like I mean do the math on that?

[00:07:40]Like Can we get a Can we get a date check?

[00:07:44]Uh I I don't I thought about that. I thought about that. Come on, man.

[00:07:46]>> Derek, honestly, you sound a bit anti-Semitic. So, let's just let's just pull back here.

[00:07:51]>> it's anti-Christian because that's what he's talking about. He's like, "If there was no Jesus, there would be no There would be no United States." Like, come on. Come on now.

[00:08:00]>> Uh so, B Travin, that's a good question, which is, will Trump actually reign in Israel to maintain this I mean, this is really the big question, right? I mean, uh he he he is a lame duck and he's going to be even more of a lame duck after the midterms. So, I think the question that Mr. B is adding asking is um what role is the Israel lobby going to have on him given that he's enriched his family.

[00:08:24]He's he I don't think he he wants to run for president again and is not going to run for president again. Is he just going to reign in in Israel? And and I I think obviously time will tell like it does with any political question, but I think that there is a chance.

[00:08:40]Um because Israel clearly didn't want this deal.

[00:08:45]Um Trump is clearly annoyed as friend of the pod Barak Barack Ravid has demonstrated again and again with Israel. But, is that enough to overcome basically he doesn't really care and there are structural incentives to >> Right, he doesn't care enough to >> do it. I mean, that that's really the question. Um so, Derek, I I have a feeling you're going to be pessimistic about Trump actually doing anything. But, is I mean, do we like forcing Israel to accept this?

[00:09:15]>> Yeah, because I don't I still don't really know like what is called for. And the MOU is vague about this. Like, we've seen the text now. It's been reported by a number of places.

[00:09:29]Um like reported out and and released.

[00:09:33]But, it's it's still vague on on Lebanon. Like, the fighting is supposed to stop. That's clear. The fighting is supposed to stop. But, is the occupation supposed to end? I don't know. I mean, there's there's there's a mention of like the territorial integrity of Lebanon.

[00:09:47]And I should say, I've only skimmed the thing, so I may be missing something.

[00:09:51]But, like it doesn't come right out and say as far as I can tell, it doesn't come right out and say that the IDF has to get out of Lebanon.

[00:10:01]And so, like, as long as that if if you're not going to force that, and you're just going to say, you know, the Israelis can park where they are. Or, you know, I think the the there was a Haaretz story that they were worried they were going to have to pull back to the the the Lebanon yellow line, which is 10 km north of the border.

[00:10:22]If that's all you're going to do, then it can't it's not going to hold. It's not going to it's not going to hold. And then the question becomes, how far are the Iranians willing to tolerate continued fighting in Lebanon if what they say this is not what we signed up for. Or, or, you know, is there a point where they'll do that? Hezbollah seems to think there is.

[00:10:41]The Iranians keep saying that there is, but, you know, we'll see. I I I don't >> Well, where does I mean, Derek >> I don't think that Trump is is going to be willing to say, "Get out of Lebanon."

[00:10:52]I just don't see him having that in him.

[00:10:54]Mostly because, as you say, I guess it's not worth it to him to to have the fight. Yes, he's a lame duck.

[00:10:59]Yes, he you know, he doesn't need these people anymore.

[00:11:02]He can he can criticize Netanyahu. But, he's also been, you know, trying to hedge himself against like people saying mean things about him on TV. Like like he did the like half joking, half not thing where he was like, "If there's anything bad in here, it's J.D. Vance's fault." And anything good in here is is my doing.

[00:11:19]Like like he he's he's still sensitive to that. And and that that I think limits his willingness to to really take on Israel.

[00:11:30]>> Time will tell. What do you think about the regime in Iran actually? Because obviously this shores them up. This gives them a gigantic This is the biggest win since the revolution.

[00:11:41]Not even close. Like ironically a regime that I think has been facing a a genuine popular discontent at home for a while at this point.

[00:11:48]I think was just given a steroid shot in the arm. I mean, this is going to really increase the legitimacy and prestige of the regime. So, I'm curious as someone who knows this a bit a bit more than I do. What do you think this does for the regime? Where do you think the Iranian government goes from here? Do we know anything about the IRGC?

[00:12:12]>> All open questions, right?

[00:12:13]>> Right.

[00:12:14]>> Um I I mean, it it it's certainly the biggest win they've had. Yeah, I think I think probably since the revolution. That's right.

[00:12:24]Um the the >> They obviously defeated the great Satan.

[00:12:28]>> The oil sanctions alone uh was was shocking to me because it was the the the language in the MOU is not just like we're going to suspend or wave oil sanctions. It's all the other sanctions that would prevent you from selling oil will also be waived. Like we're we're going to take cuz this was the the the frustration with the the JCPOA to a certain extent. Uh it's the frustration anytime the US sanctions a country and then says, "But we're going to make exceptions for uh food and and medicine and this this and that." It is is because it that doesn't account for all of the like underlying infrastructural sanctions on banking, on shipping, on insurance that prevent any transactions from taking place even if you take the one commodity that you're you're going to lift and say, "Okay, we won't sanction oil sales." You you're sanctioning all the things that make oil sales possible. so it's still can't happen. But this thing this MOU says everything's off like everything's going to be lifted or suspended not fully lifted I guess waved for a period of time.

[00:13:38]And that like that's huge for the Iranians. This is like a better position than they were in since any time before the the JCPOA I think in terms of and again it's only maybe it's only for 60 days maybe it gets you know extended but still it's it's a huge win.

[00:13:54]I don't know domestically what kind of effect it's going to have. I mean there's there's already like you know some consternation among like the really anti-west kind of elements of Iranian politics you know arguing that this was a sucker's deal that they shouldn't have taken it.

[00:14:13]That's I think that's a small group at this point. The IRGC comes out of this in a stronger position not just because of the deal but because of because of everything that happened because of the killing Ali Khamenei and and decimating the upper echelons of the Iranian government. Like the IRGC is now in control of the country. They got their guy as supreme leader and he's either you know beholden to them or in lockstep with them it doesn't really matter like they're they're governing the country.

[00:14:41]To me the the question is can they govern a country when they're not at war and and you know if if the sanctions relief continues and is fully extended then they're not even going to be in a state of economic warfare. They're going to have to run the country like a normal government and I don't know if they're capable of that. So we'll see. I don't think the discontent that we saw in January or that we've seen repeatedly over the last several years is going to go away. Some of that discontent was rooted in economic challenges that were related to the sanctions so there's a chance that if you're if they're smart about how they approach being free of the sanctions that they could ease a lot of that discontent but I don't know. I don't know if these guys are capable of actually doing that.

[00:15:30]>> Well and this is this is actually quite interesting because like what then is the Iranian state if it's one of its raison d'etre as a challenging the United States goes away. Is it a developmental state? Is it an is it an Islamic state? What is what is it going to do going forward? Is it going to try to you know what what type of developments is it going to do? Is it going to build large dam projects? Is it going to become a service economy? I mean I think like if if the country is actually freed of sanctions it's quite interesting because the Islamic Republic I mean is is quote unquote Islamism in the 70s in general is such a product of the Cold War that like what is this state do in a geopolitical context that is just I mean I mean the United States like like with Cuba if the United States hadn't been doing this the country would have probably done what Vietnam did which is enter the global capitalist system in some form or another because there's really no other option.

[00:16:24]>> Right.

[00:16:25]>> So this is actually quite an interesting question. You got this strange Cold War hangover which is what Cuba is not not to denigrate either state. I'm just talking about the historical context in which it was formed the old Cuba in 59 early 60s Iran the Islamic Republic in the late 70s and so now it's like 2026 every every nation in the world is capitalist. A lot of the states [snorts] that were called the third world now the global south have seriously developed or at least have sort of like determined their space in the global economy. I mean it'd be very interesting to compare for example you know the the GDP by PPP of Iran in 1979 with like the so-called now East Asian tigers and I mean I imagine the East Asian tigers have now like exploded beyond them.

[00:17:12]So you have this really unique and interesting uh situation that you really haven't seen a long time. Um and I think that Derek Harvey's out, but I'm going to still talk. Uh this this to me is really interesting, which is where does it like what is an Islamic Republic in the 2020s when it's not just fighting the United States? And then I'll get to the question. We'll get to the question about Cuba. Um but I mean Derek, what do you think that is?

[00:17:42]What what like what is what is the Islamic Republic in a totally non-Cold War context in the later 2020s? What is that?

[00:17:49]>> Right.

[00:17:50]>> You know?

[00:17:51]>> It's hard to say. I mean, I think you're right. Like if it just been allowed to sort of develop normally, they would have wound up eventually >> You have to. There's no other option.

[00:18:01]>> Yeah. Um But yeah, it's it's it's difficult to say what do you do at this point and and um it's especially difficult to say with a government that is totally untested. I mean, untested at peacetime, I should say. Um you know, this isn't this is not only um you know, it's not only a new cadre of people. I think it's a whole new structure for the Iranian government because it's really like elements that were subservient to the revolution are now in charge of the country. The IRGC basically is is what I'm saying.

[00:18:43]Um so yeah, I I I don't I it's hard to predict. It's really hard to predict.

[00:18:48]Like are they going to um you know, stick to a a hardline ideologically? This This $300 investment fund is an interesting thing cuz that you know, if they did it right, if they did it, you know, in an upfront kind of, you know, genuine way, could be a tool for dragging Iran into uh the system, which you know, then has repercussions down the road. If it's just going to be a slush fund for like Steve Whitkoff or Jared Kushner, then I, you know, I guess that'll that'll decide that, but it's it's, you know, hard to say.

[00:19:24]>> But when you think about quote-unquote global Islam, which is obviously not a perfect term, the '70s are like Wahhabism, you have the the Islamic revolution, right? It's just like Islam itself is in a very, very different moment as well. In the late 2020s, it's like North Korea is a bit of an atavism.

[00:19:40]There's like no democratic republics any longer because there were such artifacts of the Cold War.

[00:19:46]So, like, what is its ideological program? What is it actually trying to do in the Middle East now that it knows that it's able to actually close the strait? I mean, these are these are really um quite interesting questions from a geopolitical and and and regional perspective, but someone asked about Cuba. Do you think this makes a Cuba attack more likely? I don't know. I've gone I've waffled on this bad boy.

[00:20:10]I think it actually makes it less likely.

[00:20:12]Um though I don't really know because like it could go badly.

[00:20:18]Uh you know, like you you never really know about that. I think Trump's taking a serious hit.

[00:20:23]It would obviously try to be a special forces operation, but what what's your take on on the whole issue of Cuba?

[00:20:34]>> Um it's I I mean, I think a lot of it depends on on whether Trump feels like he needs a a quick win, which we won't know.

[00:20:44]Uh he I mean, he's clearly feeling good about himself right now, so I don't know.

[00:20:49]>> What's what's there not to feel good about?

[00:20:50]>> Yeah, really, what's there not to feel good about? But like if if he, you know, feels in a couple of weeks like you know, there people are really riding me, like I'm getting I'm getting, you know, yelled at on my favorite TV shows, and I got to do something to change the tenor of of the discussion. Um Cuba is is still a fairly easy target. Although, I don't know what they want to do in Cuba. Like >> Right. It's unclear.

[00:21:18]>> The the logic of going in and taking out Nicolas Maduro and, you know, filling in what was left in Venezuela doesn't necessarily hold in Cuba. Like they they've indicted Raul Castro. Are they going to go like abduct the like 85 What is he? 85? 90 at this point? Like just ancient. Um go abduct him and and do what then? Like he's not officially any you know, doesn't have an official role in the government anymore. Are they going to go in and take out Miguel Diaz-Canel, who's like a function like a placeholder basically? Like I don't I don't know who the guy that you knock off is and and then put the new regime in place. I mean, I guess they could figure that out or they could just go in and occupy Havana, but then that opens up all sorts of potential >> And then and then like the idea of Let's say they to what? End end the blockade and end the the sanctions. And then what?

[00:22:22]Incorporate Cuba into the wider Caribbean capitalist world? I And And so people start vacationing in Cuba like they did in the '20s through the '50s.

[00:22:31]Is that like the goal?

[00:22:33]>> back.

[00:22:33]>> Yeah, like my Orlando >> and like Cuba Lucia murdering I mean and then >> uh prediction >> Polymarket headquarters. Yeah.

[00:22:45]>> Uh you'll have a bunch of people >> live live bet on, you know, whether the uh some you know, catastrophe is going to happen. That'll be That'll be fun.

[00:22:56]>> So, Derek, have you seen anything um domestic in terms of domestic politics, that have surprised you or that have interested you as, you know, this disaster comes to at least a temporary end? To be decided how long of an end it is. Um, are sort of the coalitions we've all come to know and love coming apart or what do you see in here?

[00:23:20]>> It's It's funny. I mean, I like I look at the the re- response from Democrats and there are a few of them, I think, who are hitting the mark, which is to say like this is this war should never have been fought. Like you're you're you fought two wars, really, uh to get back to terms that would have been recognizable under, as much as Trump likes to denigrate the JCPOA, that were recognizable under JCPOA, which they've spent like 2 days now saying, "This is completely different from the JCPOA." How? I don't know. Don't ask me that.

[00:23:59]Just It's just different, okay? Like that's been their response. Um, and and the the criticism should be like why did we have to fight two wars and wreck the global economy just to get to that? Just to get to terms as you know, I've seen people have seen reported that the Iranians were talking about like they were they were on board with last year and we still had to fight this additional war that, you know, again, like wrecked the global economy. For what? What was gained by this? That That said, you do have a lot of people still doing the like we would have fought a smarter war and gotten the job done, which is just so tired. Um, and like, you know, they they can't bring themselves to just criticize the war.

[00:24:48]They have to criticize uh the way you're ending the war as though like it would be better to just keep fighting, which is ridiculous. Um, yeah, I I think it's it it's a debate that the Democratic Party's going to have to have.

[00:25:03]Um you know, by by 2028 is like what is this party? Are we Are we against war or we I say we, I'm not a Democrat, but you know, is this party against war or is it just uh do do Are we just trying to like fight smarter wars? You know, we just can't keep doing the Obama thing of like we could do this smarter and better.

[00:25:25]>> Well, because we exist in a presidential system, like so the idea would be that AOC, I imagine, would be of the skeptical side. Uh Buttigieg, I guess would also probably be a little toward the skeptical side, but like Cruzen and Gavin Newsom would be someone who would say that they would fight a war. It's just, you know, there there's such like there's not that many candidates.

[00:25:47]Um Oh, they could hear the crackling.

[00:25:48]Sorry, sometimes our um sometimes our takes are so spicy that we're we're we're we're supposed to get a new system. That's supposed like I mean, I believe them.

[00:25:59]Um I would don't think UberFlecha, RedDogra, or EricM465A would would lie to us. Uh next week we should have a a um a a system where we'd be able to bring in on guests. So, hopefully this will be the last week where our takes being so hot that they're crazy.

[00:26:18]>> and uh maybe streaming to other platforms, too.

[00:26:21]>> Yeah, maybe maybe streaming to other platforms. Um but um my train of thought was lost for All right, so if you're going you're going to have to associate these these these tendencies with individual people. And who would be the one who would be like we're going to fight smarter? Would that be like a Newsom? I don't think Kamala has a real shot.

[00:26:39]>> No. Yeah.

[00:26:41]>> So, that would be Newsom, I guess.

[00:26:43]>> Maybe. Maybe Newsom. Maybe.

[00:26:45]>> seems like unlikely to succeed, but maybe I am I'm I'm I'm being too skeptical. But it does seem like even if there are some gerontocrats who are like we'll we'll fight a smarter war. Like I don't think that could be AOC or even a Buttigieg position.

[00:27:01]>> Oh, no.

[00:27:03]>> Right? It feels like this is like kind of the end of something.

[00:27:06]>> Yeah.

[00:27:06]>> Uh I I >> who else is likely to win? Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro would certainly be in the I would have done this better. Yeah, but Josh Shapiro would have done it better, yeah.

[00:27:18]>> Yeah, it does seem like the 60 Josh Shapiro it just seems like someone who's 65 years old thinks would have a shot. You know, but it just I I don't know. Maybe I'm too sanguine. It just feels like unlikely that given the tenor of the country that a Josh Shapiro is going to be able to really seize anything. Like a Pennsylvania Democrat who's like very pro-Israel and there's a very bizarre murder case that it would take about 5 seconds for people to focus on, you know, like extremely bizarre.

[00:27:50]>> But he's Ossoff from he's from Pennsylvania, so he gets a leg up. Cuz this is I mean, this is how Democrats think about these things. It's always like what is the basic political horse race calculation?

[00:28:04]>> Yeah, Ossoff that that that is that is Ossoff might be someone as well and and he is I think a bit of a blank slate. Um but oh Derek, see you're the one crackling.

[00:28:15]>> I'm the one crackling. Well, my my YouTube like malfunctioned.

[00:28:19]>> Wow, Derek.

[00:28:20]>> I don't know. Um it must be an artifact of that. I can't I'm the one who's like hosting this thing, so I can't like drop off and come back, I don't think.

[00:28:27]>> Yeah, well hopefully this next this next week will be better. Uh let's answer this question about uh SpaceX. Is the rigged float of SpaceX forcing retirement funds in Yeah, it is pretty rigged. It to support the float mean we have officially returned to the serfdom.

[00:28:41]I mean, not serfdom. I think I I We actually we do talk about techno feudalism, don't we? With um Dylan Riley. So, we have a bonus episode where we I think we addressed the issue of techno feudalism head-on for a couple of weeks ago. So, check that out. Um, no, I don't think we officially prefer I mean it the 401K, which is I think what you're referring to or the 403 or I think I have a 403B.

[00:29:05]Um, is basically I mean they're tying you to the stock market. So, the problem is when they do that, you have an investment in the asset economy that has come to replace wages, I think at least as sort of the driving engine of contemporary capitalism. So, I mean in a in a sense you're you're being disciplined because you have to if you want to retire one day uh, basically hope the stock market goes up cuz that's where your retirement funds are given that pensions and basically no longer exist, but I don't think that's serfdom.

[00:29:39]Um, I mean serfdom is a very particular arrangement between feudal lord and peasants. Um, but I do think this is just like we're all tied to the stock market doing well structurally.

[00:29:50]Um, so it's very very difficult what whatever your political persuasion is if you have any sort of retirement funds to you know, vote against or vote for rather any sort of regulation that would lead the stock market to not just go up up up up up.

[00:30:04]Um, and so um yeah, thank you. Um, and Sherman Mishra that is it was a good episode. Um, so again, I'm not sure if that's necessarily unique to SpaceX. Uh, I mean that I think it's just indicative of the stock market why it would be difficult to from a political perspective rein in something like the SpaceX IPO because political legitimacy and basically everyone's livelihoods and future rests on the stock market and a number go up as we like to say on the left. Um, so that's my take on that.

[00:30:40]That and that's not that's not feudalism, and it's not serfdom. That's, you know, something new. Um but it's not good. Um and uh obviously it seems a little fake. Uh these these uh market caps uh seem to be outrageous and disconnected from any reality on the ground uh in terms of actual profit making, and that doesn't seem good. But like I've thought for years that the the chicken is going to come home to roost, but maybe it's just in a world where there's no other option the chicken never comes home to roost. I don't know.

[00:31:11]It hasn't yet in my lifetime in a real way except 2008, and then they just recapitalized the market and lowered interest rates. So, I don't know. Derek, do you have any thoughts about that?

[00:31:20]>> Uh no. I I I would second everything you said there. I mean I I it's uh it is all the way to like get people force people to be um tied to the stock market whether they want to be or not, and everybody's got to root for this [ __ ] to to be a trillionaire because their retirement savings depend on it.

[00:31:40]It's perverse. I mean it's it's a perverse system.

[00:31:43]Uh so, yeah.

[00:31:45]>> Um Derek, you want to answer This is This is for you about the Sahelian What is the future of the Sahelian anti-imperialism?

[00:31:51]>> Anti-imperialism? Um I don't think it's good.

[00:31:56]I I mean I'm not expert in this, but I would defer to somebody like Alex Thurston.

[00:32:01]Um They can't They're not defeating the jihadists. Like this was the whole rationale for the coups that brought these governments to power, especially I mean the the main like anti-imperialist of the bunch here is Ibrahim Traoré in in Burkina Faso, uh who has this image now of of like uh you know, he's a new Thomas Sankara.

[00:32:27]But Sankara actually did things. Like he accomplished stuff. Uh Traoré and the junta there have not accomplished anything. Um so, I I I don't think it's good unless they can turn things around. And the situation in Mali is is grimmer than it is in Burkina Faso, but it's still pretty grim in Burkina Faso and Niger.

[00:32:48]Um, unless these these hunters actually show some capability uh, in in doing the thing that they came to power specifically to do, uh, I don't I don't see them getting getting very far. And we've already, you know, we're already seeing uh, them re-engage with the United States. Like France is is no longer a factor, but the Trump administration is trying to get back into to West Africa for minerals, to you know, to exploit minerals, to uh, compete with uh, the Russians there. Uh, and that's happening. Like the these governments have been receptive to that. So, you know, that also doesn't speak very highly of their commitment to to genuine anti-imperialism. So, I'm I'm skeptical.

[00:33:29]>> I mean, we should do an episode on what does anti-imperialism even mean in in the in the 2020s and in like a we're very much no longer in the age of decolonization. I would even say we're no longer in the age of the post-colony.

[00:33:40]Like again, we it does still feel though like we're tethered to the language and frameworks of the past. You know, like we haven't really come up with something after post-modernism. We haven't really come up with something after post-colonialism.

[00:33:53]So, again, we we still seem to be in this interstitial intermediate period, um, where we haven't really understood what this era is about. And I think that, you know, again, same thing with liberalism, right? What's come to replace liberalism? Essentially, nothing.

[00:34:07]And so, you know, like we're just in this era of total dissolution and decay, which makes it sometimes difficult to also analyze things that are going on cuz it just seems like it's it's further and further uh, it's a further and further descent without without without there being any real positive program.

[00:34:23]Um, so it's like what is this age defined by? And you know, maybe that'll be different once the boom once the gerontocrats leave, right? Like like at least we'll be be getting some positive decisions uh, going forward, you know, like as everyone probably listening to this knows I disagree with Pape that Iran is a great fourth great power.

[00:34:41]>> [laughter] >> I want to this the person who asked about this the Sahel asked a follow-up which is do I think this means the jihadists will win?

[00:34:50]Um no, I don't think that they would I mean define win, I guess.

[00:34:54]Uh I don't think they would. The place to watch is in Mali where JNIM really seems to have pretensions to to govern and you know, they're even depending on who you you know, which analysts you read, they're sort of shedding quietly their affiliations with al-Qaeda and sort of global jihad to take on a more local um tenor and to to you know, to to because of in part for this alliance that they've now got with the Tuareg rebels in the north, but also to make themselves seem like a legitimate governing option. So, I mean if it's going to happen in one of those countries, it's probably going to happen in Mali.

[00:35:32]Um but Niger, I mean the Islamic State is really more potent in Niger than than JNIM and Islamic State is nihilist. I mean they they they wouldn't know what to do if they uh somehow stumbled into control of a country, they'd they'd just be lost. Uh especially the the Sahelian branch. I mean it was one thing with the caliphate, I guess, in uh Syria and Iraq, although that was a mess, too. Um so yeah, I know I don't if if if win means like are we going to see a new caliphate in the in the Sahel? Uh I think probably not, but but certainly those insurgencies can go on uh you know, indefinitely really unless there's a finally uh some some approach to end them. I don't think it's going to be military. I think it's going to have to be um trying to negotiate with elements within those groups um to to weaken the overall structure, but you know, none of these countries seems capable of that.

[00:36:31]>> You took the words right out of my mouth, Derek. Uh before we go, uh does anyone have any uh questions put in the super chats? Uh I'll give everyone a second, but yeah, we're we've been we're going to be doing these and go also indefinitely, like a good insurgency.

[00:36:46]We'll be doing this indefinitely into the future. Uh hopefully we will be able to have guests uh soon.

[00:36:53]Um so, if there's no more questions, thank you everyone as always for coming uh to watch the show. We're going to have a merch drop soon. Uh and as always, keep on rocking in the free world. Bye.