Middle East War: Iran's Hormuz Toll, Red Sea Dominance And The Looming Global Oil Crisis

[00:00:00]General Pandey, $300 billion is what they get. Beyond these 30 days of that agreement, it says the Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz. Is Iran saying we we will dominate the Strait of Hormuz?

[00:00:19]We will run the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:21]>> Toll.

[00:00:21]>> We will collect a toll. So, they get $2 million per ship. If 150 ships cross, then $300 million is what they make a day.

[00:00:29]>> No, no. Yeah, so I think the toll Sorry.

[00:00:32]The toll actually was 1 lakh $50,000 for a oil tanker and $125,000 for a container ship. This $2 million has been exaggerated beyond limit. Fair enough?

[00:00:44]>> But they're getting money for free.

[00:00:47]>> Uh no, it's not for free. They are calling it a service charge. No, they're not calling it a toll. But the fact is it becomes so uh uh a domestic issue for us. The faster we develop our assets where we require to and there's a protest which is happening in Andamans, I think we start looking at these places much more seriously. Right, that is one part. The second is that it will take about two more months time to decide that will they be allowed to charge a service fee of this nature or not because eventually uh as General Sharma said very rightly, uh Iran has exposed the vulnerability of Hormuz very clearly. And people are now going to the countries are now going to actually diversify. Uh Saudis and everybody is going to find different ways and means to get out of this trap of Hormuz and uh yes, Iran is a fantastic civilization power, but somewhere its strategic orientation of destruction of two countries, the big Satan and the small Satan, has not changed because the moment they change, they'll lose grip on their own people.

[00:01:51]>> Mhm.

[00:01:51]>> And this is going to continue to define this country. Uh will this definition and orientation will be allowed to be continued >> Okay. the Gulf region in the in in West Asia and by Americans?

[00:02:05]Time shall tell.

[00:02:06]>> So, it's not just the Okay, it's not just the Strait of Hormuz. Has Iran actually succeeded in projection of power through the Houthi forces in Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea? And this is where even if the oil pipeline comes of Saudi Arabia, they will be able to dominate the Red Sea and the Suez Canal?

[00:02:24]>> I mean, just two quick points. One is that Iran had a set of disruptive options.

[00:02:30]It was hitting the allies, hitting the American bases, hitting oil installations, desalination plants, close the Bab el-Mandeb. Also, it threatened to, you know, those underground cables, data cables.

[00:02:42]>> cables.

[00:02:43]>> So, they have disruptive options if America hits them. But, see, there is one more point I would like to make. Is there larger geopolitics at play here?

[00:02:51]Iran could do this targeting because of Biden >> or three.

[00:02:55]>> Yeah.

[00:02:56]>> China was doing this on the sly. Drones, missiles. Without that, it would not have happened. Is China are China and Russia also encouraging Iran to challenge this tall system? Because there is broader geopolitics.

[00:03:09]If America says, "Our backside, nobody will come and the key to the gas station will be ours."

[00:03:14]>> Yes.

[00:03:15]>> Iran is making a similar argument. That freedom of navigation cannot be there when the territorial waters are our. I'm questioning the broader international order which the Americans had set. If it is not backed by military power and Hormuz is a good example where they have not been able to enforce it.

[00:03:33]>> So, it's a failure of the system then.

[00:03:35]>> I No, I'm saying it is a broader challenge by brick, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. It is a broader challenge to the American concept of international order. Freedom of navigation.

[00:03:45]>> And just one last point.

[00:03:46]>> See, you have to respect it mutually.

[00:03:48]When you fire a missile to hit the IRS Dena, when you don't express regret on three soldiers, you're not going to get friends. American hubris must end. Or it must be limited by the constraints of their own military power and the new international realities.

[00:04:03]>> And that is that's the new international reality, but I I'm sorry, I've run out of time, but I have to get a yes no answer from all of you. Will Iran go nuclear?

[00:04:14]>> Uh I think it suits them to at least show a picture that they are not going nuclear because the advantage that they have earned now in this deal is so dramatic that you know, it would be advantageous for them to not go nuclear at least ostensibly.

[00:04:31]>> But they will go nuclear.

[00:04:33]>> I'm saying so for their own safety. If we don't know about it, it will be like Pakistan.

[00:04:37]>> Fair enough.

[00:04:37]>> I have a little small point to make.

[00:04:39]Six months, next six months, there'll be no oil in the world because the oil will start flowing. It has to be refined.

[00:04:47]>> Yes.

[00:04:47]>> All the dumps and depots and strategic reserves of the world are finished.

[00:04:52]They all will be have to be filled in and you'll also have to supply oils for daily use. So, the next six months is not peaceful people time in the world.

[00:05:01]>> Good good point. Will Will Iran think that if I go nuclear, I'm better protected? Will it want to go nuclear?

[00:05:08]>> I don't think Iran will go nuclear, but Iran will always be threatening to get go nuclear, but will never go nuclear.

[00:05:14]>> Fair enough. Sir, your take.

[00:05:15]>> Short term, no. Long term, certainly.

[00:05:18]>> Sir, your take.

[00:05:19]>> It will go nuclear.

[00:05:20]>> It will go nuclear.