Will The Iran Deal End Netanyahu's Career? | IGR | India Global Review

[00:00:07]That's how Benjamin Netanyahu started the war on Iran with an appeal to ordinary Iranians to come out on the streets and topple the regime.

[00:00:17]More than 4 months later, things haven't gone to plan.

[00:00:23]Iran is weak, but standing.

[00:00:26]The regime is shaky, but it endures.

[00:00:32]And Netanyahu, he was shut out of the peace negotiations and now must fight for his political life.

[00:00:42]The war was always Netanyahu's grand dream.

[00:00:47]A dream he pitched to many US presidents before Donald Trump.

[00:00:52]A massive air campaign, a few decapitation hits, and job done.

[00:00:59]None of them bought the plan, but Trump did.

[00:01:32]Initially, there was shock and awe.

[00:01:38]The US and Israel dropped wave after wave of bombs on Iran.

[00:01:50]They took out senior leaders one after the other, but the regime was ready for it. Not only did they survive the initial onslaught, they responded with escalation by firing missiles and drones at neighboring Gulf states.

[00:02:12]>> [cheering] [cheering] >> By shutting off the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries up to 20% of global oil.

[00:02:31]Suddenly, the pressure was shifted. A sustained campaign was now out of the question. It was either a quick win or a negotiated settlement.

[00:02:41]And that's where Netanyahu faltered. His tactics, especially in Lebanon, enraged Donald Trump.

[00:02:49]>> No, I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah.

[00:02:57]They should have been able to do the job faster. It It just goes on forever.

[00:03:02]And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that's the deal with Iran.

[00:03:09]So, so, when you ask me about Bibi, an unbelievable relationship.

[00:03:16]But Israel would have been blown up a long time ago had I not gotten involved.

[00:03:22]>> Netanyahu has always been Israel's man in America.

[00:03:26]If he couldn't win over the American public, he would try to win over the American president. If he couldn't win over the American president, he would try the American Congress.

[00:03:37]One way or another, he would bring America to his side. Not this time, though.

[00:03:45]As the negotiations began, Israel was kept out. It's not clear if Netanyahu was even consulted on the final draft.

[00:03:55]>> It's appropriate that we release the agreement and we did send a copy to Israel by the way.

[00:04:00]They've been a good partner. Again, >> Being sent a copy isn't the same as being consulted.

[00:04:07]Which brings us to the deal itself.

[00:04:10]It includes some substantial concessions for Iran, a $300 investment fund, sanctions relief from the US and the United Nations, permission to sell its oil to the world, and unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets.

[00:04:28]If this goes ahead, it would unleash Iran's economy, which has immense potential. With 90 million people, it has a much larger population than other countries in West Asia. If you add the natural resources and location, the sky's the limit. And that's not good news for Netanyahu.

[00:04:52]His strategy has been to curb Iran's strength either by cozying up to their Arab rivals or through covert military action or by lobbying for Western economic sanctions.

[00:05:04]If that pressure is gone, Iran could emerge as a West Asian powerhouse.

[00:05:10]Quite the opposite of Netanyahu's goal.

[00:05:13]>> He will be unable to sell this agreement to the Israeli public.

[00:05:17]The best that he can hope for is that um they fail to reach an agreement and the war restarts to Israel's advantage in 60 days or they reach an agreement that even Israelis will consider to be very good. But that's extremely unlikely because even in the best case scenario, Trump's only spoken about a nuclear deal, not one that includes um Iran's conventional weapons production of particularly long-range missiles, which can, if they're if there are enough of them, overwhelm Israel's defenses of its civilian population.

[00:05:57]>> On the ground, the sentiment is souring.

[00:06:00]Netanyahu's popularity began plunging in late 2023. That's when Hamas carried out its brutal attack on Israeli civilians and soldiers.

[00:06:10]It was seen as an intelligence failure of the Netanyahu government.

[00:06:15]Yet, the prime minister did not resign.

[00:06:19]He unleashed war on Gaza and later struck Lebanon, Syria, and even Qatar.

[00:06:25]Once the Iran war began, Netanyahu's popularity briefly rose. After all, his grand plan was in motion.

[00:06:34]But now, with this new peace deal, the people have turned again.

[00:06:42]>> I don't think it's going to last because the Iranians vowed to annihilate Israel.

[00:06:46]So, when you sign an agreement with them, it just delay delay of their goals to destroy Israel and America.

[00:06:54]>> It's a bad agreement.

[00:06:55]Iran will not keep the agreement. And as a matter of fact, I think that the whole thing was a a betrayal with you know, the Iranian people and Israeli people because it's only American interest here.

[00:07:14]>> [applause] >> The challenges are not just political.

[00:07:22]Netanyahu is also facing corruption allegations.

[00:07:28]This week, he was questioned by prosecutors in relation to the case.

[00:07:32]While Netanyahu has decried the trial as a political witch hunt, the people are not buying.

[00:07:39]Nearly 60% Israelis don't want him to stand for the next election, which must be held before October this year.

[00:07:53]But tell that to Netanyahu. Right now, it does look like the end of the road for Netanyahu.

[00:08:05]Under him, October 7th happened.

[00:08:10]Under him, Israel's relationship with Washington soured. Under him, global public opinion shifted against Israel.

[00:08:19]And now, under him, Iran's economy could be unleashed.

[00:08:29]You wouldn't expect a leader to survive such a disastrous run of events, but this isn't any leader. Netanyahu is the ultimate political survivor. He's been written off and cast into oblivion before, only to re-emerge. That's how he became Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

[00:08:49]So, is there one final escape in Netanyahu's career, or has he run out of political capital and luck?