Why there's 'no room for PM's survival' after Andy Burnham wins Makerfield

[00:00:00]Could this be a turning point for the country? That was the prospect raised by Andy Burnham after his victory in the Makerfield bi-election moved him a step closer to Downing Street. The so-called king of the north won more votes than all the other candidates combined to confirm his return to Westminster.

[00:00:23]Mr. Burnham received 24,927 votes, a winning margin of more than 9,000. Reform UK's candidate Rob Kenyon came second on a disappointing night for Nigel Farajger's party. Restore Britain came third ahead of the Conservatives, the Greens, and the Lib Dems. Mr. Vernon won more than half of all the votes cast, almost 55%, that is 10% higher than what Labour achieved in the seat in the 2024 general election. Now he has set his sights on the top job, telling Labour that this is the party's last chance to change and vowing to lay out a new path for Britain. First though, he'll need to see off the current occupant of number 10. Sakir Stalmer said today that a leadership contest would send the country into chaos, but if there is one, he will stand. In a moment, we'll hear from our political correspondent, Carl Denon, in the Makerfield constituency, and from our political editor, Robert Pon, who is in Downing Street. But first, with all the latest on the result and the fallout, here's our political reporter, Jasmine Cameron Chilei.

[00:01:40]>> 24,927 His was a resounding victory. In the early hours of this morning, Andy Burnham became Makerfield's new MP, a win he hopes will set the stage for a leadership bid.

[00:02:01]His message to the party was clear.

[00:02:05]>> This is a final chance to change.

[00:02:09]This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on.

[00:02:17]We must hear it. We must act upon it and we must get it right. There will be no second chance.

[00:02:24]>> The prime minister today praised his wouldbe challenger.

[00:02:28]>> This was a very good victory in the bi-election and I've sent my congratulations to Andy Bon >> but insisted he's not going anywhere.

[00:02:36]there isn't a leadership contest when there is at the moment there isn't one uh at the moment but as I've said on many many occasions I don't think that's a good thing uh for the country to plunge us into chaos I would also um add that now that Andy has won which is uh really important really good he's a huge asset to us then now will inevitably be uh a Manchester mealy bi-election starting straight away it's important that we pull together uh for that but if there is a contest just to be clear with you then yes I will run I will stand and I've said repeatedly I'm not going to walk away from that.

[00:03:10]>> Back in front of cameras this morning, Mr. Burnham outlined his pitch to the nation.

[00:03:15]>> We are going to lay out a new path for Britain. We have an opportunity to turn the tide to make the country feel like it's working again to make people see that politics can make a positive uh difference.

[00:03:31]>> But no word about his next move. When are you going to challenge K star? Mr. Bernham, you want to be prime minister, Adi Bernham? Is it all going to happen next week? Mr. Bham, >> residents in Makerfield say they need action as well as warm words.

[00:03:46]>> He will lift Labor up considerably. He really will cuz well, no one could actually probably do worse than Mr. Starmmer.

[00:03:54]>> A little bit deflated. I thought it would have been a closer run thing, but um obviously the people of Ashton have spoken and that's what they want. Reform UK say they've not lost momentum, but their vetting processes have been criticized after controversial comments by their makerfield candidate were reported.

[00:04:13]>> No, we're doing really well in the national polls. As you can see, this was a very specific bi-election designed basically to get rid of the current prime minister. And what we saw uh and we congratulate Mr. Bernham on his victory. He's held on to a century held Labor seat. This former minister, an ally of leadership hopeful west streeting, says there should be an orderly transition.

[00:04:36]>> What I really hope happens over the next 48 hours uh over this weekend is that all of those uh in whatever camp they're in, that those people get together and talk to each other about what is the best thing for our government, for our country, and for the Labor Party. Um, and and and look, for me, I I think we nobody wants a massive bun fight when you're meant to be running the country.

[00:05:03]>> The battle for Makerfield may be over, but with the party gearing up for a bitter leadership contest, the fight for number 10 has just begun.

[00:05:12]>> Jasmine Cameron Cheshi, ITV News, Westminster.

[00:05:16]>> Let's get more then from our political correspondent Carlen. Carl, a win for Andy Burnham, but is it the size, the scale of that victory that is perhaps most significant this lunchtime?

[00:05:28]>> Yeah, it's both. I mean, look, the scale of this victory is important, but up until last night, whether or not it would happen seemed to be in the balance, but yes, Andy Burnham has won in spades here. This area at the local elections voted reform over Labor by about 20 points. Andy Burnham has turned that on his head on its head. He has beaten reform by something like 20 points. Now, of course, there are always local factors at play. This is Andy Burnham territory. His huge name recognition here, having been uh mayor of Manchester. In fact, there's a primary school here. And as Andy Burnham was leaving a few minutes ago, the kids were chanting his name. Added to that, uh, reform didn't really feel, as we've been hearing, uh, perhaps as strong a candidate as they might have done. All that said, Andy Burnham has shown that he can beat reform. Uh, Kier Starmer has shown that he really isn't uh very good at staying ahead of reform. And as far as Labor MPs are concerned, they want someone. They are desperate for someone who shows that they can beat reform somewhere. So, I I think Andy Burnham by the scale of his victory last night uh will have uh cemented his place as as the next lab Labor leader in the minds of many Labor MPs and maybe even possibly, let's say, changed a few minds. How he did it is interesting, too. Look, he's talked here about re-industrialization, about not sending so many immigrants, uh asylum seekers to to places like this, about the government buying British more. All that is to come, though. what he's shown tonight uh yesterday is that he can beat reform and that's what Labor wants.

[00:07:12]>> Carl, thank you very much. Let's uh turn to Robert Peston who's in Downing Street. If Andy Bernham is to become prime minister, how might that happen?

[00:07:22]So I talk to I've been talking to Labour MPs, ministers and everyone I've spoken to says that it is now inevitable that Karma will go and anti Vernon will take over. There is of course one exception to that view and that is indeed the view of the occupant of number 10 Downing Street Kama himself. We've just heard him saying that he would fight in any contest for the leadership. So the big question now is is there indeed going to be such a contest? Somebody who's very close to the prime minister and would definitely not be an Andy Burnham supporter said to me that if Andy Bernham can show for example that there are at least 200 MPs prepared to nominate Burnham in a leadership contest at that moment in his view is it's totally over and at that point Starmer would have to capitulate. Now I think uh you know Burnham would want to not get to that point but he may have to because what he hopes will happen is that over the weekend uh the prime minister takes soundings and recognizes what Burnham believes to be true and I have to say as I say as I say both MPs and and ministers I talked to also believe to be true which is there is no route now for the prime minister to survive and in those circumstances is it would be better for there to be an orderly transition perhaps uh you know leaving him in post to the beginning of Labor conference which would give uh the prime minister time to push through some of his other important agenda items like a close relationship with the EU and build was often referred to as a legacy and also just leave with dignity being able to say particularly to his party that he made he did do something very big and important for them which was to win the last election with a significant uh majority but there is I think a very significant risk uh and this is I'm hearing this from those officials who work closely with the prime minister that he's got his dander up that he is up for the fight and so it is altogether conceivable that we will see triggered next week a contest between Burnham and the prime minister in which conceivably if there's going to a contest. Others like Wes Streeting will participate. I'm hearing from some MPs that if there's going to be a contest, they would want a woman candidate. So, there would be pressure, for example, perhaps on the foreign secretary, I bet Cooper uh to stand in those circumstances. And we would be back to the kind of chaotic scenes that we associated with a previous Tory government. You can probably hear in the background all that sort of rockous noise that we're getting outside from anti-rexit campaigners.

[00:10:28]It's like being a time capsule and going back to the chaos of the Tory years. And actually from where I stand uh today, you know, we may be into that sort of deja vu all all over again when it comes to uncertainty about who our prime minister will be. I do think however there is one certainty which I do think that at some point and it may be messy or it may be clean but I do think uh this is certainly what Labour MPs are telling me Karma's time in office is approaching its end >> Robert Pston thank you >> overnight we also had results from two other bi-elections both in Scotland in our broth the SNP held on to the seat there but in Abedine South the SMP were beaten by the Conservatives who won a Westminster bi-election in Scotland for the first time in more than 50 years.

[00:11:20]Much of the debate in the run-up to that vote was over the future of the oil and gas industry. Our reporter, our Scotland reporter Louise Scott is in Abedine.

[00:11:28]Louise, how significant is this victory for the Scottish Conservatives?

[00:11:35]>> Oh, hugely significant. This was seen as an almost certainty the S SNP could win the seat again. But the Conservatives really threw everything at this bi-election campaign. They fought on the oil and gas industry, a sector estimated to be losing a thousand jobs each month in this area, partly due to the government opposing new drilling licenses. Also high taxation on profits and a promised transition to renewable just not happening quick enough. So we've seen a real decline in this area and the surrounding area. Now, conservative leader Kimmy Bonok, she has been up several times campaigning and well, she was back this morning to see all that hard work pay off.

[00:12:16]Uh, this is extremely significant. It is significant because the people of Abedine have sent a message to the S&P government and to the Labor government that they will not be ignored. This was a referendum on oil and gas. They want to see uh drilling in the North Sea.

[00:12:32]They want to champion our oil and gas sector and they want the Conservatives to do that.

[00:12:40]>> Well, they got almost 50% of that vote.

[00:12:43]On the other side, the S&P lost 7,000 compared to the last election. So, some will be asking what impact their chief executive Peter Muddle's embezzlement case will have had on voters. And any concern of reform diluting the Conservatives vote, well, they didn't have much to worry about there. From our time spent in this area, the number one talking point was the oil and gas industry and what could be done to revive it and to really ensure job security. Now, well, we'll wait to see if the Conservatives can actually deliver on their promises.

[00:13:16]>> Louise Scott, thank you very much. Thank you.