Shiv Sena UBT | Sena Split 2.0? UBT Sena Meet Amid Fresh Rebellion Fears

[00:00:02]We have more breaking news coming in and this is in regard to the Sena UBT meeting that is to start shortly. Do remember this is a parliamentary meeting [music] that has been called by the Uddhav Thackeray faction in the national capital. The key [music] meeting amid that defection buzz and the strength test that is for the Uddhav Thackeray camp. Do remember it was Sanjay Raut who said that all of the MPs were there at that meeting that had taken place earlier [music] on saying that there were people who were you know present physically, the ones who couldn't come physically were virtually attending that meeting. with all those claims that are being made particularly by the Eknath Shinde camp making claims [music] that six of the nine MPs have switched sides and have joined the Eknath Shinde camp.

[00:00:42]And do remember this comes about just close on the heels of the claims that have been made by Sanjay Raut. Sanjay Raut who has gone [music] ahead and claimed that 50 crore rupees are being offered to MPs of the Uddhav Thackeray camp of which 15 crores are being offered up front as advance. And that is the claim that was being made. But Sanjay Raut still, you know, at that press conference that he held yesterday said that they still have their people, they still have the numbers. Let's listen in to what he has to say now.

[00:01:25]Now we just heard Sanjay Raut there saying that it's absolutely compulsory to be attending that meeting of all the parliamentary party members to be there at that meeting that has been called here in the national capital. Sanjay Raut who also held a press conference yesterday and made allegations as to the kind of money that was being offered.

[00:01:42]There was a chartered flight that had brought these MPs to the national capital and so on and so forth. And here we have of course they are still you know not actually coming out as far as those rumors and speculations that are doing the rounds because yesterday we had claims made that six of the MPs have switched sides. There was a very crucial meeting that has taken place here in the national capital and we have Vasudha, my colleague, joining us.

[00:02:05]Vasudha, you know, this is a very, very important meeting, a show of strength, a loyalty test, so to speak, as far as the Uddhav camp is concerned. But on the other side, the speculations are rife in regard to the six MPs with many claims being made that they have already switched sides. So, will they really be present at the meeting or not is really the big question at this point in time.

[00:02:23]>> Yes, Divya, in fact, that is the only question now and remember that six members, six MPs have to be present for the claims to be true, for Operation Tiger to be successful.

[00:02:34]And the foundation day of the Shiv Sena is closing in. In fact, it's on the 19th, so the timing of this is extremely crucial. 22nd of June is when it'll be the fourth anniversary of the split of Shiv Sena. So, if the Shiv Sena actually splits, it will be the second split for the Shiv Sena in four years. Today, all that we have to watch out for is the number of MPs who are present in this meeting. So, like you rightly pointed out, it's not just a show of unity, but also a show of loyalty for the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray you know faction. Waze and Arvind Sawant and Sanjay Raut have already entered.

[00:03:07]Anil Desai is in a parliamentary committee is also supposed to be you know arriving soon. We just have to see if Sanjay Dina Patil and of course Om Prakash Nimbalkar also make their presence felt, which means if they come, that means you know, the Operation Tiger is in a state of you know, problem. But if they actually don't come, which means that would mean that the MPs have made their decision very clear that they could be joining the Shinde camp anytime soon. But yes, it's an important day for Shiv Sena UBT. We'll have to wait and see you know, who are the MPs who come and if they manage to get four of these MP, four of the MPs to be present for today's meeting.

[00:03:44]>> Absolutely. Well, we also have Jitendra, our colleague, Jitendra Dikshit, joining us as well. A litmus test there, Jitendra, you know, for all those who will be present at the meeting, a little less stress as far as the loyalty factor, the support that they're going to be extending because, you know, we heard Sanjay Raut yesterday say that people have sworn on the faith that they believe in, whether it's Sai Baba, and so on and so forth, saying that they are pledging their allegiance with the the you know, Uddhav Thackeray faction. But here we have so many rumors doing the rounds, so many speculations, and so many claims that are being made on the other side, the other camp.

[00:04:17]>> Yeah, right now what we can gather from the information which we have received from our sources is that only three MPs out of nine have been on the way for the meeting venue.

[00:04:29]And we are looking for Sanjay Dina Patil who spoke to us last evening and said that he's going to attend this meeting and he's with Uddhav Thackeray. He is loyal to Uddhav Thackeray. So we are waiting for him like in case if he comes, then we can say that uh as for now, this operation tiger has failed or it it will be postponed. So it depends like right right now only three MPs of Lok Sabha from Shiv Sena UBT who appeared yesterday as well in a press conference are coming for this meeting.

[00:05:08]If Sanjay Dina Patil comes, then I think this will be a big news because it will imply that the operation has failed for now. Sanjay Dina Patil was in Mumbai yesterday. He claimed that he was in Mumbai and he told us that he will be traveling to Delhi to attend this meeting. About other MPs, Omraje Nimbalkar, his case is also doubtful because people say that he was in two minds whether to remain a loyal to Uddhav Thackeray or to join the rebel camp. He's said to be in Pune. And about other MPs, our sources tell us that they have been stationed in Jaipur. Although nothing officially has come, but sources say that they have been kept in a resort at Jaipur since last 2 days.

[00:05:59]>> Right. Well, Vasudha also with us.

[00:06:01]Vasudha, if six MPs of the UBT faction switch sides, what does this really mean for the Uddhav Thackeray faction going forward? And particularly, how does this strengthen the other camp? And do they really need this at this particular point in time?

[00:06:17]>> That's that's a very important question, Divya. In fact, it will speak a lot about Uddhav Thackeray's legacy. In fact, Balasaheb's legacy as well.

[00:06:24]Because remember that Eknath Shinde, the Deputy Chief Minister, has always said that he is the actual inheritor of Balasaheb's legacy. But more than that, it will also talk about how the NDA will boost its numbers in the parliamentary session. The upcoming monsoon session is going to be extremely important. So, six MPs with the NDA would also mean enhanced numbers for the delimitation come women's reservation bill. So, in some ways it's going to benefit the NDA. It's also going to benefit Eknath Shinde immensely because this would also boost his image as somebody who can get things done, who can get people on their side.

[00:06:58]And also, one more point. In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a lot of the a lot of these MPs one in fact UBT Shiv Sena has around nine MPs. So, there was always this sense that, you know, that seven MPs, yes, they there was always this sense that now of the nine MPs, you know, seven were always sort of vulnerable to moving to other side. Two people, Anil Desai and Arvind Sawant, were always seen as the most important loyalists of Uddhav Thackeray.

[00:07:22]But today's presence of, you know, just three MPs would also in some ways show that Uddhav Thackeray has been unable to retain his MPs and stop them from moving over to the other side. But like Jitendra said, all depends on two MPs.

[00:07:37]Everything depends on two MPs. Om Prakash Nimbalkar and of course Sanjay Dina Patil. If they are part of today's meeting, if they arrive anytime soon, operation operation tiger would be considered a failure or at least it would be seen as something that failed as of now. But we'll have to wait and see how this works out.

[00:07:54]>> Right. Let's talk about that political balance, you know, post the death of Ajit Pawar and and how does this, you know, benefit team Eknath Shinde? Was there a reason for all of this to happen? Is this leading to a fresh realignment, so to speak, in regard to reestablishing their image like Vasudha was mentioning?

[00:08:19]Jitendra.

[00:08:22]>> Yeah, I would like to answer this question. See, first of all, by doing by executing this operation tiger, Eknath Shinde aims to increase his clout within the NDA.

[00:08:35]Then what experts say that he can claim an ministerial birth in the union cabinet, number one. Number two, he will be having more claim in the state government as well.

[00:08:49]We all know that Eknath Shinde has been eyeing chief minister's post of Maharashtra and once again he wants to become the CM and that's why he's trying to strengthen his party by getting more numbers right now.

[00:09:06]He is trying to get MPs. Later on after this operation gets over, sources from his party say that they will be also trying to get MLAs as well and this will strengthen his claim for the top job in Maharashtra.

[00:09:22]>> Right. And when we talk about Ajit Pawar's absence now that is being felt particularly, was it a stabilizing force when it came to politics in the state of Maharashtra and is that really missing now, Vasudha?

[00:09:34]>> Well, Ajit Pawar, you know, heads now, and NCP split also very soon after, you know, in the last 4 years. And NCP SP is headed by Sharad Pawar, and Ajit Pawar, of course, passed away. And you're right, and that also led to a vacuum in the party. But NCP, Ajit Pawar's faction has in fact done very well when it comes to elections, not probably 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but the assembly elections went on very well for them. There are also speculations of NCP merging now, because it's all about the family. Remember, there's a big wedding that's coming up in the next 2 days. Supriya Sule's daughter, Riti, is getting married. So, you can see a lot of Pawar family pictures that will be put out. And in some ways, a united Shiv Sena also poses not a threat, but in some ways a challenge to the NCP's clout and influence, which is why there probably will be more pressure on the NCP factions to merge. Also, Ajit Pawar's death, like you rightly pointed out, would also lead the factions to come closer to each other. But yes, there are important calls to be made. As of now, the focus seems to be on the Shiv Sena, you know, coming together.

[00:10:40]And remember, the dates are very important. Shiv Sena's foundation day is on the 19th. The anniversary of the Shiv Sena splitting is on the 22nd of June.

[00:10:48]So, June has always been an active month for the Shiv Sena. We'll have to wait and see what reasons the MPs give for leaving Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, and what are the reasons they cite for joining the rival camp, which is led by Eknath Shinde.

[00:11:03]>> Right. When we talk about you know, when in regard to party loyalty, has that, you know, not been a factor anymore? Has that become less important than access to power, Jitendra?

[00:11:18]>> Yeah, that we can see since 2019.

[00:11:20]We have seen that Shiv Sena itself and NCP, both the parties, both the major parties in Maharashtra, have faced rebellion.

[00:11:32]and in 2022 on 21st June 2022 there was a rebellion in Shiv Sena where around 40 MLAs went away with Eknath Shinde and claimed that their party is the original Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray has to adopt another name for his camp Shiv Sena UBT. Then a year later and there was a rebellion in NCP as well where Ajit Pawar broke away with some a good number of MLAs and he too like Eknath Shinde claimed that his party was the original NCP party which was founded by Sharad Pawar in 1990. So we can see like in last 7-8 years party the question of party loyalty is not having any significance in the political maneuvering and what matters is aligning with power. So these MPs also MPs those who are being said to be defecting from Uddhav Thackeray's camp they are giving two three reasons like first of all they want to align with power because they they said that they are not getting development funds they are not getting governmental support. Another thing is that Uddhav Thackeray has lost connect with all these MPs he's not very accessible and one more factor is that it has been an old allegation against Uddhav Thackeray that he has made a coterie of people and only those people guide and influence Uddhav Thackeray's decision and he is not accessible to other party office bearers or other members of the party.

[00:13:12]>> Right before we go into the dissatisfaction that has led for these MPs if going by claims that are being made and speculations that are being made that they are switching sides. Well you know Vasudha is this not so much of them being ambitious but more to do with just you know the survival mode that's kicking in perhaps in the Uddhav Thackeray camp.

[00:13:34]>> That's a very practical question to ask and then like Jitendra pointed out everybody is looking out for themselves now when we saw what happened with the Trinamool Congress. Ideologies have stopped mattering right now because practicality of Indian politics is also a challenge before our own elected representatives. They want to do things for their constituents which is why probably they feel that you know instead of being part of this push and pull it's better to be part of a party that's in power that also ensures that they have their constituency funds and they all that also sort of in some ways ensures their future is safe which is why I think a lot of these MPs are wanting to be part of the party in power and today's meeting is also going to be in some ways a reflection of Uddhav Thackeray's abilities to keep his MPs together. Remember these MPs stayed with Uddhav Thackeray even when the split happened in 2022. So these are considered amongst the loyalists of loyalists. So if they have if they are breaking away it means that they have reasons for doing so and like Jitendra said they could be you know talking about how Uddhav Thackeray's the Shiv Sena is moving away from its core ideology of Hindutva and Balasaheb's you know Marathi pride pitch. They could even be talking about how the party is moving towards you know Congress. They could be saying anything but at the end of the day it also is very clear that regional parties in India are increasingly finding it difficult to rise up to aspirations of people to keep their flock together and also in some ways pose a challenge a definite challenge to a party like you know a BJP or even any of its ally like Eknath Shinde like Shiv Sena.

[00:15:04]>> Right. Were there signs that were you know appearing the cracks that were appearing at first and this perhaps could have been contained Jitendra but the Uddhav camp perhaps has not taken the measures to keep their MPs and their leaders happy in the first place.

[00:15:20]>> See my assessment of Uddhav Thackeray's party is that Uddhav Thackeray Thackeray's two decisions and two habits have led to this kind of scenario. In 2019, he made a mistake by breaking away with BJP. Although he had fought elections in alliance with BJP, but later on he broke the alliance as he was not being given a Chief Minister's post for 2 and half years and he joined hands with parties who had opposing ideologies with Congress and NCP. So, that was his first major mistake. Then, secondly, he chose to become Chief Minister himself. He could have been a super CM like his father Bal Thackeray and then would have controlled the government with a remote control because there were people like Eknath Shinde that time who had high ambitions and who believed that Uddhav Thackeray, like his father Bal Thackeray, will hand over the Chief Minister's post to somebody else, some other powerful leader in the party and will control the government from outside. But Uddhav Thackeray made a mistake. He was not conscious of such ambitions of his party leaders and he chose to become Chief Minister himself.

[00:16:36]That was his second big mistake. Apart from these two mistakes, certain habits of Uddhav Thackeray have also led to this kind of scenario. First is that he doesn't travel a lot. He doesn't meet people. He doesn't go to various cities and talukas of Maharashtra to encourage and to uh motivate his party people even during the election times. That is one thing.

[00:17:02]Secondly, he's not very accessible. If some MPs or MLAs want to meet Uddhav Thackeray, so it's not very easy to reach him. Thirdly, it has been an allegation since 2005 when Narayan Rane quit Shiv Sena. Later on, Raj Thackeray quit and other leaders when they had quit they made a common allegation that Uddhav Thackeray had made a coterie of people around him who influenced his decision and Uddhav Thackeray doesn't listen to anybody else in their party. So that was also another cause due to which people were disillusioned with him, people were unhappy with him and these have been the major factors which have caused rebellion in Uddhav Thackeray's party in 2022.

[00:17:47]>> And I see same causes once again in 2026.

[00:17:52]>> Right Jitendra and Vasudha, thank you so much for decoding what's really happening here and a very crucial meeting that is taking place in the national capital.