Senate Democrats Sweep In Key 2026 Races!

[00:00:00]Let's do a US Senate election prediction for 2026. Starting out with the first state just characterized it, the state of South Carolina.

[00:00:08]That state is generally a Republican stronghold to large extent. So, I think that the state will remain red in 2026. Next up, we have the state of Montana in the likely red column. Nothing too crazy here.

[00:00:23]Generally, the state votes red. It's been a while since Montana has elected a Democrat to the Senate. They did have one Democrat, Jon Tester, in the Senate up until 2024, but he lost his reelection bid.

[00:00:37]And the state has since drifted further and further to the right. But, since before Tester, he won reelection in 2018 by and was wasn't able to win again in 2024. So, it'll be interesting to see what happens, but I think most likely situation is that the state remains in the Republican Party's column. I think that will be the end of the likely red seats. And then, we're going to head over to the likely blue. We have primarily the one, that being the state of Minnesota. Long history of voting blue. We've seen quite a bit of news coming out of Minnesota in recent months showing that Democrats are well positioned to win the state, not only on the Senate level, but most likely on the gubernatorial level.

[00:01:19]Uh Amy Klobuchar running for governor.

[00:01:22]I'm not certain who the Democratic nominee for Senate is, but I do think they will win the Democratic nominee will win. That's going to be the call there in state of Minnesota. And that is going to be the end of the uh likely blue states. We're going to go on to the lean red. We're going to start out with the state of Nebraska.

[00:01:40]Uh Nebraska generally isn't a state that I put in the lean red column. It's generally in the safe red column.

[00:01:46]Nebraska for the presidential level, however, has a bit of an interesting situation where each congressional district has one vote, and one of those votes votes for Democrats pretty consistently. Uh but, the state at large, there's an independent who's running for this seat as you can see here in the purple rating in the bottom left. Both Montana and Nebraska have independents running for the Senate election in their those respective states. Weirdly enough, I think that Nebraska is far more likely to elect an independent than Montana, even though traditionally it's been quite a little bit longer since Nebraska has had a Democratic senator since Montana had one. Uh but I think that uh Dan Osborne just has some unique appeal. Also, it helps that there isn't a Democratic nominee in the Nebraska Senate race, so there won't be as much vote splitting.

[00:02:34]Well, there is Well, that is the case, but I think Nebraska will probably be a closer election than Montana, but still in the Republican Party's column. Then we have the state of Iowa. Going to put that in the Republican Party's column as well. Iowa, Ohio, and Florida used to be pretty big swing states by vote, especially Florida, and they used to be very competitive. However, all three of those states, and we'll get to Florida later, have drifted further to the right. I think Democrats' best hope definitely comes in the state of Ohio, where they're favored in the betting markets, according to the Kalshi betting markets.

[00:03:11]So, we'll get to Ohio later, but for now I'm going to put Iowa in the Republican lean category. And then we're going to get to Florida. Florida, going to put that in the lean red column. This state, I briefly mentioned it, but used to be a competitive swing state, but it's since drifted further and further to the right. States that have acted as swing states have really changed throughout American history. Recently, for example, Georgia wasn't really a swing state for the 2000s and even 2010s, but Biden when Biden won it in 2020 and they elected two Democrats to the Senate, it showed that the evolving nature of these states, that new cycle of swing states.

[00:03:51]We have a couple interesting ones there.

[00:03:54]So, that's going to be the call there.

[00:03:55]And Florida though, no longer quite as competitive. And that will be in the Republican Party's category.

[00:04:01]And then we're going to head over I think that might be the end of the lean red. We're going to go to the lean blue now. There's going to be a couple of these starting out in Georgia. Georgia, the seat is being defended by Democrats.

[00:04:13]They're the incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is up for re-election. I think he's well positioned to do well uh this election. He has strong fundraising game and wide support. I think even with uh Georgia and lean instead of tilt that it will be a pretty substantial Democratic victory. I still think it'll probably be within three to five points, but it will I do think it'll be more than a tilt margin there in the state of Georgia for a Democratic victory on the Senate level. And then in the betting markets, North Carolina is actually even more Democratic friendly, more Democratically favored. And so, I'm going to put that state and that's going to be the first flip. There isn't a incumbent senator this time around in North Carolina. The incumbent senator is retiring. He's a Republican and Democrats have a great candidate in Roy Cooper who's a former Democratic governor of the state and I think he will do quite well in a state that Democrats have really been hoping to win for quite a while now. It will be interesting to see what happens with Georgia and North Carolina on the presidential level in 2028, but I think the Senate elections will go Democrats' way there and there. And then a state that I feel probably even more confident in calling than Georgia and North Carolina is going to be New Hampshire.

[00:05:26]One more seat for the Democrats. The state generally has voted blue with a couple exceptions for gubernatorial positions and whatnot, but um for this Senate election, going to put that into the Democratic Party's column by a lean blue margin. Nothing too crazy there.

[00:05:42]And then Maine, the state I was I've gone back and forth on whether or not I think it will be tilt. This state, the Democratic nominee has gone through some scandals and I think that that has certainly hurt his chances. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I she's still performing pretty well in the polling against uh the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins, and the Democrat is even up in the betting markets. It is narrower than the state of than the states of Georgia and North Carolina, but still with the majority of the chances. So, that's going to be the call there in Maine. And then we're going to get these states will be in the tilt column. We'll start out with the tilt red I feel pretty confident in calling that being the state of Texas. Texas has had a very long history of voting red. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke got relatively close and it was like 2.7 points away from winning the Senate election and this year in November, the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, is pretty well-liked.

[00:06:41]He's got broad support from moderates and swing voters in the Texan urban suburb areas and I think that will be crucial for Democrats if they want to have any chance in winning the state at large. I think even with a scandal-plagued candidate on the Republican side that the Republicans will still win, but I'm going to put it in the tilt column. So, really it could go either way. That's going to be the call there. And then we're going to do some Democratic states now. We have the state of Michigan.

[00:07:11]I've called this if Democrats are going to lose a seat and Republicans are going to gain one, that it would probably come through the state of Michigan. For now, I'm going to put it into the Democratic Party's column, but that's going to be the call there.

[00:07:23]And Alaska and Ohio, I promised I'd end with Alaska or end with Ohio, sorry. So, I'll go to Alaska. Mary Peltola is the Democratic nominee here. She has been performing pretty well in the polling and she even has the decently sized lead in the betting market odds for this race.

[00:07:42]So, that will be the third flip from red to blue. She won in North Carolina, second in Maine, and then third one from flip from red to blue in the state of Alaska. Mary Peltola has won on this level before in the house. The house is the whole state is one seat just because of their small population. So, I know she's she's definitely capable of winning on the statewide level, and I think she's a pretty strong candidate. I think it will be close, and really it could go either way, which is why I'm putting it in the toss-up column. But if Peltola win, and then we're going to go to Ohio. That will really be the key state to determine which party controls the US Senate.

[00:08:20]The betting market seems to agree with me on this. I'm really not certain how to call Alaska and Ohio. I think those two states really could go either way.

[00:08:27]They'll ultimately be the ones that determine control of the Senate. So, they are going to be some key players, but that's going to be the call there.

[00:08:33]Democrats are able to retake the Senate with 51 seats, the narrowest possible majority, and that's going to be the call there.