Iran is ‘playing for time’ in this deal, Jonathan Schanzer says

[00:00:01]E PEOPLE OF AMERICA.

[00:00:03]FOR NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DEAL.

[00:00:07]FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR JONATHAN JOINS ME NOW GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM.

[00:00:12]I APPRECIATE YOU BEING HERE.

[00:00:14]I BELIEVE YOU HAVE A DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW I CHARACTERIZED THE LAST BIT ABOUT A GOOD DEAL VERSUS A BAD DEAL, I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU NOW AS TO WHY YOU THINK THIS MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST COURSE FOR AMERICA.

[00:00:27]>> I NEED TO FIRST SAY THAT I THINK WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAS DONE BY WEAKENING THE REGIME MILITARILY AND ECONOMICALLY, THE MAN DESERVES ENORMOUS CREDIT FOR DOING SO.

[00:00:37]I AM CONCERNED ABOUT ANY DEAL THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE REGIME WITH $300 BILLION NO MATTER WHERE IT CAME FROM, AMERICAN OR FROZEN OIL FUNDS.

[00:00:46]THAT MONEY WILL GO RIGHT BACK TO BUILDING THE MISSILE PROGRAM, MAYBE THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM, CERTAINLY IT WILL BE ABOUT FUNDING THE PROXIES ALL OVER THE REGION.

[00:00:58]I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THAT AND ABOUT DROPPING SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BECAUSE IT WILL SIGNAL TO THE MARKETS THAT IRAN IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS I'M CONCERNED ABOUT OUR ISRAELI ALLIES WHEN THEY GET ATTACKED BY HEZBOLLAH AND WE KNOW WHAT THE VICE PRESIDENT SAID, ABOUT REGIONAL PEACE, I GUESS THAT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC DOES WHAT IT ALWAYS DOES WHICH IS USE ITS PROXIES TO STIR UP TROUBLE ALL OVER THE REGION AND WHEN THE ISRAELIS ARE ANYBODY ELSE RESPONDS, ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE AGAIN -- >> Will: IF THAT'S THE CASE LET'S LOOK AT THE VICE PRESIDENT'S ARGUMENT.

[00:01:31]THAT'S THE CASE ISN'T IT AS THIS DEAL IS SET UP THAT IRAN WILL GET NONE OF THE BENEFITS IF THEY DON'T ABIDE BY THE TERMS ON THE PAPER NO ONE EXPECTS THEY WILL, WE ARE AT THE VERY LEAST, THEY WON'T RECEIVE THE BENEFITS UNDER THE DEAL AND AT THE VERY WORST IT WILL BE THE RECIPIENT OF BOMBING.

[00:01:49]WE KNOW THAT BECAUSE IT IS THE PROMISE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP AND WE HAVE SEEN IT OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS.

[00:01:55]>> I THINK ALL THOSE SCENARIOS ARE PLAUSIBLE, WE ALSO NEED TO UNDERSTAND SOMETHING ELSE, WHAT WAS JUST SIGNED WAS NOT A PEACE DEAL.

[00:02:02]IT WAS NOT SOME SORT OF A CAPITULATION BY THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

[00:02:06]THEY ARE PLAYING FOR TIME, THEY HAVE 60 DAYS NOW TO NEGOTIATE FURTHER.

[00:02:11]THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM STAYING IN THIS IN WHATEVER WAY THEY DO FOR THE NEXT 60 DAYS.

[00:02:17]MAXIMO CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT COMES AFTER THIS THEN WHAT I AM SEEING NOW.

[00:02:22]I SEE THINGS HERE THAT MAKE ME UNCOMFORTABLE NOW, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY I THINK THE INITIAL FRAMING WAS THE RIGHT ONE BECAUSE CAN WE EVEN TRUST THE REGIME TO NEGOTIATE IN GOOD FAITH?

[00:02:33]CAN WE EVEN GET A GOOD DEAL TO BEGIN WITH?

[00:02:36]>> Will: I THINK IF OUR ANSWER IS NO THERE REALLY IS NO SUCH THING AS A GOOD DEAL WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, THAT PUTS US IN A POSITION OF REALISM.

[00:02:46]I WANT TO ASK YOU A SERIES OF QUESTIONS AND SEE IF WE END UP IN A DIFFERENT PLACE WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONCLUSION, IS THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM SET BACK 15-20 YEARS BECAUSE OF THE BOMBING?

[00:02:58]>> I WOULD SAY MAYBE MORE LIKE SEVEN OR EIGHT OR TEN, BUT IT HAS BEEN SET BACK.

[00:03:02]>> Will: LET'S SETTLE ON A DECADE TO MAKE THE CONVERSATION EASIER.

[00:03:07]SEVEN OR 20 WE WILL SETTLE IT AT A DECADE.

[00:03:10]HOW'S THE GULF REGION BEING REDRAWN IN TERMS OF ALLIANCES?

[00:03:14]WE SEEM TO HAVE A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND THE GULF STATES AND THAT HAS EXISTED DIFFERENT IN A WAY IT WAS BEFORE THIS WAR WITH IRAN.

[00:03:24]>> I ACTUALLY TAKE ISSUE WITH THAT.

[00:03:27]I THINK WHAT WE HAVE HEARD ANYWAYS, THE QATARIS HAVE BEEN CUTTING SIDE DEALS, IT'S A DUPLICITOUS ALLY WE SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH.

[00:03:35]I THINK THE SAUDIS ARE A LITTLE SPOOKED WE DID NOT WIN OUTRIGHT AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

[00:03:41]THE EMIRATIS I THINK ARE WITH US, I THINK EACH GULF STATE HAS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT FLAVOR HERE.

[00:03:47]BUT I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE A SOLID ALLIANCE STRUCTURE NOW.

[00:03:52]>> Will: I THINK THAT'S FAIR.

[00:03:53]GOING BACK AND FORTH, EVEN AS HE CHARACTERIZED IT IT IS PROBABLY BETTER THAN WHERE WE WERE TWO MONTHS AGO.

[00:04:00]ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND ON THE REGIONAL ALLIANCES I THINK WE COULD SAY WE ARE BETTER THAN WE WERE TWO MONTHS AGO.

[00:04:08]>> I DO WANT TO PUSH BACK ON THAT BECAUSE I THINK THEY THOUGHT GOING INTO THIS WAR IN FEBRUARY THAT WE HAD THE ABSOLUTE UPPER HAND, AND WHEN THIS WAR BEGAN, WE REALLY LOOK LIKE WE WERE TAKEN TO THE REGIME.

[00:04:22]WHAT HAPPENED THOUGH AFTER THAT FIRST MONTH OR SO OF FIGHTING IS WHEN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC STARTED PLAYING DIRTY.

[00:04:28]THEY STARTED CARPET BOMBING, ALL THESE REGIONAL COUNTRIES AND WE WERE STARTING TO RUN LOW ON SOME AIR DEFENSE.

[00:04:35]AND ON TOP OF THAT THEY SHUT OFF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WE COULDN'T GET OIL OUT AND THEY BROUGHT US -- THIS IS HOW THEY VIEW IT ANYWAY, THEY VIEW IT AS THE IRANIANS PLAYING HARDBALL BROUGHT US TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AND GOT US TO MAKE THESE CONCESSIONS.

[00:04:51]>> Will: I THINK WE STRIVE FOR ACCURACY AND TRUTH HERE AND I THINK ONE OF THE MAJOR MOTIVATIONS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TO GET THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPEN AND THE PRICE OF OIL DOWN AND THE ECONOMY BACK CACTUS MOU PROMISES THAT WOULD BE THE CASE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

[00:05:05]THE MATH I'M TRYING TO DO IS IF IRAN IS SET BACK TEN YEARS ON A NUCLEAR PROGRAM, IF WE HAVE GREATER ALLIANCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAN WE DID BEFORE THE WAR AND IF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN, WHERE WE SIT TODAY IS A WIN.

[00:05:18]IT MAY NOT BE THE COMPLETE WIN.

[00:05:21]MY MIND WONDERS IF THE CRITICS OF THIS POTENTIAL DEAL WANTED NOTHING SHORT OF A COMPLETE WIN, WHICH WOULD BE IRAN NEVER HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A COMPLETE REGIME CHANGE AND REQUIRE A GROUND WAR IN IRAN.

[00:05:34]IF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN THIS WIN AND THAT OUTRIGHT WIN, WELL, WE HAVE TO BE HONEST ABOUT THAT DEBATE.

[00:05:45]>> I THINK THERE IS AN ARGUMENT THERE BUT I THINK THE WAY IT IS BEING FRAMED NOW IS SOMEWHAT BINARY.

[00:05:50]IT'S EITHER THIS DEAL OR NO DEAL.

[00:05:53]AND I DO THINK THERE IS A THIRD WAY.

[00:05:56]I THINK ACTUALLY THE PRESIDENT HAD GAINED SIGNIFICANT LEVERAGE OVER THE REGIME WITH A BLOCKADE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, IT WASN'T JUST THEM BLOCKING OIL COMING OUT.

[00:06:08]WE WERE BLOCKING THEM FROM EXPORTING OIL.

[00:06:11]AND I DO BELIEVE THAT THEY WERE SUFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF THAT WERE ENORMOUS.

[00:06:17]FULL CREDIT TO THE PRESIDENT BY THE WAY FOR ENACTING WHAT WE CALL AN ECONOMIC FURY, IT WAS TAKING ITS TOLL.

[00:06:24]MY REAL CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT WE HAVE TO MAKE A DEAL TO OPEN THE STRAIT AND GET OIL FLOWING AGAIN AND EASE THE PAIN AT THE PUMP, I UNDERSTAND ALL OF WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO DO.

[00:06:35]I AM AFRAID THAT RIGHT NOW RATHER THAN DEPRIVING THEM OF THE CASH THEY NEED IN ORDER TO TERRORIZE THE REGION AS THEY HAVE BEEN, THAT WE ACTUALLY MAY BE IN A POSITION WHERE WE START ENRICHING THE REGIME AGAIN BECAUSE WE GAVE UP ON THE PRESSURE.

[00:06:49]>> Will: I THINK WE HAVE TO CONSIDER THE PRESIDENT'S PROMISE OF THAT AS THE CASE HE COULD SOON BEGIN TO SEE BOMBING.

[00:06:55]THIS CONVERSATION IS EXTREMELY HEALTHY, THE BIGGER PICTURE CONVERSATION I HOPE WE CAN HAVE ONE HERE A