The Makerfield By-Election Explained

[00:00:00]Despite the last few weeks being particularly busy in British politics, with Sama announcing a new social media ban for under 16s and him announcing new sanctions on Russia at the G7 summit in France, one story is overshadowing the rest. The return of Andy Burnham to Westminster. In Venice, it's not hard to see why. For the last few months, it's been clear to anyone with even a vague eye on British politics that the only thing standing in the way of a Burnham leadership bid is the technicality that in order to launch one, he needs to be a sitting MP first. And well, this morning he's overcome that hurdle. He won 55% of the vote in Makerfield, comfortably beating Reform UK, who achieved only 35%. Given the pollsters predicted that this would be a tight race, it's hard to see this as anything other than a massive victory for Burnham and a devastating loss for reform. So, in this video, we're going to explain the background, how the campaign went, what this means for reform and for Labor, and what a Burnham leadership challenge would look like.

[00:01:06]If Andy Bernham becomes the next British prime minister this summer, the UK will have had seven PMs in less than 10 years. So, in the latest issue of our magazine, we explain why there appears to be a revolving door at 10 Downing Street. That's just one of the 80 pages in the magazine because there's more to too long than you'd expect. Purchase your copy by clicking the link in the description. Now, let's start with the history of how we got here. This whole saga really began in September 2025 at Labour's party conference. With Kizdama under serious pressure due to poor polling and countless U-turns, Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, began to criticize the government, citing a climate of fear in the Labour Party and urging the government to go further. While he was unable to formally move against the prime minister at the time, the speculation about a potential Burnham leadership challenge never really went away. The main issue, as we alluded to in the intro, was that Burnham wasn't an MP. So, in the months that followed, there was a lot of speculation about which sitting Labour MP could potentially step down in order to let Burnham stand as a candidate. In January, after then Labour MP Andrew Gwyn resigned his Gordon and Denton seat on health grounds, Bernham signaled his intention to stand as the Labour candidate, but he was subsequently blocked by Labour's National Executive Committee, largely filled with StarMA loyalists, a move that infuriated many within the Labour Party and likely contributed to an even further decline in Star's polling. And then in early May, after Labour's poor results in the English local, Scottish, and Welsh elections, and with Star's political authority massively diminished, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his seat in Makerfield. This time, Starmmer didn't have the political capital to block Burnham again, and Bernham was selected as the Labor candidate. With just four weeks until the bi-election, Bernham had his work cut out. While he was obviously very popular as the mayor of Greater Manchester, having won the past three mayoral elections with more than 60% of the vote, the Makerfield constituency didn't initially seem to be the easiest constituency for Burnham to win. In 2016, 65% of those in the constituency voted leave, compared to only 52% nationally. And according to analysis of the 2021 census, by electoral calculus, the constituency leans on average slightly right economically and very right culturally. On top of this, recent election results suggested that Labour's hold on the seat was weakening. In the 2024 general election, reform garnered 31.8% of the vote, only around 15 points behind Labor, who achieved 45.2% of the vote. And in this year's council elections in early May, reform averaged 50.4% in the eight makerfield wards, more than double the 22.7% that Labour received. Moreover, a survation poll early in the bi-election campaign showed that without Burnham as the candidate, Labour had a 0% chance of victory. With Burnham, however, this rose to 65%. Victory for Bernham then was far from guaranteed. But Bernham pulled through and secured 55% of the vote to reforms 35%, a whopping 20 point victory. This is a swing of 23 points to Labor from the local elections just 6 weeks ago. It's hard to put into words just how significant a victory this is for Labour and how bad it is for reform.

[00:04:22]During the campaign, pulsers suggested that Labour would win the seat, but only by between five and 10 points. So, what went so wrong for reform? But part of this is likely down to the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates themselves.

[00:04:36]Reform's Robert Kenyon had a number of problems on the campaign trail, from accusations of sexism and homophobia on old social media accounts to underperforming in debates. By contrast, Burnham had a decent campaign, managing to maintain his man of the people persona. Reform was also damaged by the impact of tactical voting. Recent polling by opinion found that half of people in Makerfield who said that they would vote for the Lib Dems or Greens if a general election was held tomorrow were instead backing Burnham in the bi-election. The same can't be said for Restore Britain with the same polls showing that only a third of Restore backers would vote reform tactically in Makerfield. In the bi-election itself, Restore achieved 7% of the vote, whereas the Lib Dems and Greens achieved about 1% combined. While this alone didn't cost reform the win, this vote splitting on the right certainly contributed to the scale of reform's defeat and highlighted just how much of a threat restore could be in the future. Making matters even worse with the results from the Abedine Southby election that also took place last night. The Conservatives managed to take the seat from the S SNP achieving 49.5% of the vote on a 25% swing. Reform came third with only 8% and a swing of 1.6%.

[00:05:51]For a party riding as high in the polls as Reform, they should perform significantly better. And this, in addition to make a field, demonstrates that they might not be the dominant force on the right of politics. as they might have assumed. Now, the fact that Makerfield did look like a classic reform seat early in the campaign now actually plays into Burnham's hands. It shows that he can beat Farage in his own territory, making his pitch for the Labour leadership even stronger. With Burnham heading down to Westminster in the next few days, the media's attention will now squarely be on Burnham and exactly when he will pull the trigger on a leadership election. Now, a lot will depend on exactly how Labour MPs respond to Burnham's election. If we see a wave of resignations from Starmmer's government in the next few days, then it will start to become clear that Starmmer no longer has the authority to lead his government. If enough of those resigning cite their support for Burnham, there's a chance that Starmmer will step down of his own valition. Burnham announces his candidacy and no other candidates stand against him in an attempt to maintain unity. This would essentially be a Burnham coronation and would see him in Downing Street within days. Another option is that Starmer doesn't immediately resign, but sets out a timetable for his departure. This would give time for Burnham and any other challengers to organize their campaigns and would make the next few weeks less chaotic. However, both of these outcomes rely on Starman making the decision to leave, which seems unlikely at the moment. Something he even said in our interview with him this week.

[00:07:17]>> I'm not going to walk away. Um, we fought very hard to turn the Labour party around. We are beginning to bring around the change in this country that we promised. So the economy has stabilized. Um we invested in our NHS.

[00:07:30]So waiting lists came down a record amount in recent weeks. Migration has come right down. We've got a better relationship with the EU and we're seen as a leader again on the world stage. So a lot of the change that we promised is uh beginning to happen is actually um evidenced now in what we've done but there's a lot more to do. Um, and therefore, uh, if there is a challenge, I don't think there should be a challenge, but if there is a challenge, um, I'm not going to walk away. I'm going to fight.

[00:07:54]>> More likely is that Burnham attempts to trigger an official leadership election by garnering the support of 20% of Labor MPs, currently 81. In this eventuality, Star is eligible to automatically be on the ballot. And although he stated repeatedly that he would stand against Burnham in any leadership election, including in our interview, it's hard to see him actually doing this. The latest issue of our magazine is out now. And if you want our best value ever, subscribing and using code summer26 gets you your first copy for as cheap as £4.99, as well as 20% off as long as you stay subscribed. I told you about one of the articles at the start of this video, but this issue is truly jam-packed with content from all around the world.

[00:08:36]Obviously, the headline section is our rundown of Trump's wars around the world, discussing all the different countries and regions that have faced Trump's military wrath, going nation by nation through our timeline and reaching the ultimate question, has Trump created the modern holy war? From there, we dive into our regional sections, starting with the UK, where we unpack the results of the recent elections, take a look at the UK's odd foreign posture, and discuss if Britain has become ungovernable. Then in our EU section, we discuss how Russia's sphere of influence is fading, while Europe's energy transition isn't what you'd expect, as well as looking at the euro's missing members. Finally, in the global section, we discuss whether we're seeing echoes of the First World War, what's next for Iran, as well as what really came from the Gen Z protests we saw emerging last year. That's not even everything. With this 80page issue, our joint longest ever, there's even more to read than I've been able to mention here. So, click the link in the description to learn more and grab your copy today.