PKR Deputy Chief Sharwin Subramani predicts the party could win 10-12 seats in the upcoming Johor State Elections, recovering from its worst-ever performance of 1 seat in 2022. He attributes this potential recovery to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's positive economic achievements, including stable petrol prices and improved employment, which have improved voter perception. Subramani believes the political landscape has changed, with voters more open to evaluating parties based on current performance rather than traditional affiliations. He also notes that internal conflicts within Perikatan Nasional (PN) between PAS and Bersatu may benefit PKR in securing Malay votes, and that local candidates will be key to PKR's comeback strategy.
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From 1 Seat To 12? PKR's Bold Johor Election Prediction | with Sharwin Subramani | AMK Johor
Added:Hey guys, what's up and welcome to another episode of the goodcast show. So it's election season and the dominoes have already fallen. First JO then the Gri Silan. Just yesterday of course Wawasan has confirmed its participation in the Joho state elections and it seems as time carries on the Joho state elections is becoming ever more crowded.
In all of this where does PKR stand? Is the party in decline? Is this the beginning of the end? Or will they come make a comeback in the jo elections? Who knows? And can it withstand pressure from parties like Wawasan and Basama? To answer these questions and more, I'm joined by the deputy chief of Ankatan Muraka, Adilan Joho, Mr. Shahuin Subramani. Welcome to the podcast, brother. How are you?
>> Hi, how are you? I'm good.
>> Thank you so much for doing this. Uh, okay. Let's start with the PR state goals in Joho.
>> Now, PR recently announced that he's going to be contesting in 16 seats.
Correct.
>> So based on your opinion, perhaps the party's opinion, uh what will you all deem as a victory in the upcoming Johs.
>> Uh hi, first of all, good day and thanks for the opportunity.
>> No worries, man.
>> Okay, so as we see now like uh as what PKR have announced that we'll be contesting for 16 seats in Joho. So I can see that the the the wave is quite good. Okay. Especially the supports among the the the normal ordinary people in Joho is quite uh is it's quite good the response. So I think the chances is quite high over there. So that's >> for how many seats are you all targeting?
>> Probably I mean if you ask me you will say 16 out of 16. So I mean but but realistically realistically I I I I think at least uh maybe 10 to 12 >> is is a is a is is a winnable seat I I I would say from my our opinion. Yeah.
>> Okay. But having said that of course PK strength will come from mix seats.
>> Correct.
>> However now nonlay voters have another option.
>> Correct.
>> Summer.
>> Correct.
>> So with them there and they have already confirmed they're entering the state elections. How will that impact PKR's performance? As you say you you say that you think that PK can win 10 to 12 seats.
>> How will that impact your entire projection?
>> Okay. So now I mean as as far as we know that okay Bama is is joining in Jehov states elections and so on. But then now the the the voters especially they they are more open nowadays and also they they they can evaluate themsel by looking at the current uh achievement which have been done by the our honorable prime minister of Nisha Ibrahim and and the economics and the stability of the government at the moment is quite good. So in that case I would prefer I would say that the the voters they they can determine and they can decide where where they will be voting and for which party and I don't think so Bama is a threat for PR especially.
>> No initially you talked about the performance of the state and I think it's fair to say based on the numbers Joho is recorded the highest GDP uh growth in in fact it's higher than the national average. uh you have one you are the leading source uh destination of for investment and all that you have the lowest unemployment in the country so Joe is doing well unfortunately though wouldn't Johorans credit that to joho state government and not the federal >> okay so in that sense okay what I I would prefer I mean personally say that whatever the people in Joho says that the GDP and and the mean the work employment and so on it can't be done by the state by itself >> I understand I mean that that's the reality but on the ground people won't see it that way they would credit it to jo and plus also daton Hafi is a very on on hands-on on the ground type CM so they see him they think he's the reason for everything so would that work against you >> uh I don't think so okay I don't think so see end of the day okay what what even initially the the reason of the Joho state they the they bubarakan the Joho state was also they said that oh we have I mean the people are looking for the new force and the new power and so on. But our question now is like okay let's look at the Joho state situation.
Barisan National especially they were having 40 seats okay out of 56 which means they have easily we would say that they have more than two or three seats >> and what is the necessity for them to go and uh bubaran the don especially when they have the the the majority over there so in that sense what I'm seeing is like the political in Joho was stable was stable and everything were aligned as what uh onhis claimed But then since what is the necessity for them to do the election at this particular moment if everything is stable because I don't think so the PH government or the the Harapan side the the opposition is going to oppose with the very minimal number of seats they are holding so and goes back to your question back so with in Joho people are saying that on Hafi is literally going all out in Joho and he's he's the main factor but I don't think so it's no it's is not really happening in Joho when we look at the grassroots level. No, the prime minister is having more influential compared to the Joho state mantria and also if we see a lot of uh projects or a lot of uh developments which was brought into Joho was through the initiative of the federal government. It can't be done or it wasn't been done purely by the state government.
>> It's by the collaborations.
>> Yes, it's by the collaborations. So and we would say that after the Anoa government after the government which were holding by the prime minister a lot of even big major developments or even major projects were brought into Joho state by the initiative of the prime minister. So that's what I I I would feel that uh no I don't think so he's being so popular in Joho. No.
>> Okay. Fair enough. That's your assessment as a member of PH uh sorry PKR >> but this is something that's been talked about a lot as well what you said earlier was why call for the state elections now correct >> this was also mentioned at the at the at the general launch of PH in Joho but then again is that for a state government to dissolve the parliament before it has finished it period it's not something new >> correct >> I mean even in on a federal level also they can do it right that's what we are thinking now as well uh but so is that the only thing that PH can sell that BN uh has destabilized the government especially at the state level that that we are the ones who are helping the state because they know that they can't can't compete with the on ground sentiment towards uh the chief minister.
>> Uh okay no actually I mean this is not the sole factor by PH government to say that oh the BNF or fumble up the government that's the reason why we are going for the election. No so if you look at the assessments and whatever stability was brought in by the federal governments. Okay. So we would say that if let's say the state government and the federal government is being aligned.
So I think more even more benefits more advantages or more things can be done equivalently rather than having a a split party over here with a with a different direction and the federal government is standing with a different direction. I don't think so things will be much more aligned.
>> Okay.
>> So in that case I don't think so. I mean this is not only our campaign material to say that oh BN have one-ear term and they they have uh been dissolved the the don seats. No I mean I I this is not only our our thing.
>> Fair enough. So let's go back to what you said earlier. Your you are projecting that PR will win 12 seats out of the 19 >> out of the 16 probably >> out of the 16. Sorry. Right. But however in 2022 which is your worst performance ever you won only one out of 19. you and not only that uh you you lost uh in some of the places you guys contested you only got 7% of the vote. Uh some places you lost by margin of 10,000. Uh in your closest margins are between two to 4,000. And the only place you won, Buket Batu, correct? You won by 137 words.
>> Yes.
>> So with the past performance, what makes you think that PR will bounce back from one seat to 12 considering also your best number you had was five?
>> Um okay. So the previous Okay, let's go back to the 2022 election. Okay. So there were many factors which were causing for the for for the uh I would say the the lowest performances. Okay. It it was not only by PKR even the entire PH were doing quite bad for previous PR and the reason was first of all it was during COVID season. Okay COVID season and also our maj major voters are from Singapore.
I mean they are working in Singapore and the lo the lockdown has caused them from not allowing them to come back to Joho to votes. So that was one of the major factor even we look at the voters turnout and all the the turnout percentage was not even 50%. Okay. So and that were the one of the main reason why the PH government collapsed last time during the election. So and also the previous election it taught us some lessons as well. Okay, it taught us some lessons. But whereas we look at the current situation now I think it's it's it's a positive wave or positive vibration we are having uh at this particular moment and I would say that even pre during the previous PRN uh Dratan Ibrahim was not the prime minister and we can't be able to see whatever uh success was brought in by him but now we can witness that and we can see that whatever uh success or even Even let's make it a very uh we take a simple example and look at our petrol prices and so on when the whole world are competing or even they are having a very limited resources for the petrols and so on but yet Malaysia still able to withstand the pressure with the the the payment for the the price for the petrol still remains with one 99 cent. So all this is actually the initiatives which was brought in by the prime minister and this can be seen in this current election whereas for the past election at first of all we don't even per people I don't think so they had a proper perception towards PH and also the the voters turnout was the major factor I would say for the reason why we couldn't win most of the seats on the PRN >> there is point in what you say because generally PH does better when the water turnouts are higher which is why they perform better during GE as opposed to elections, right?
>> However, now what we are also seeing is a very tired electorate. For instance, a lot of people have termed the entire reform movement as reformati. They're saying that Anwa did not live up to his promises etc. And in fact, your peak performance in seats in Joho came because of the reform movement.
>> Correct.
>> Which you got eight seats know five five seats in 2018. But now with all of this considered and also considering that state election turnout is generally lower than GE >> and also on the GE level people are worried of party people rather sitting at home watching Netflix and coming out to vote.
>> True.
>> Wouldn't it be a worse showing for you in this coming state elections?
>> Okay. Is it previously when the elections or let's let's go back to 2022 when the elections were uh were happened and on 2022 this were one of the major situation where the state election normally people don't turn out and and stuff but I think so maybe the the the the possibilities the possibilities of the the voters to be out this time looks quite promising because people are also getting equally tired. Okay. People are also looking for changes because we go goes back to like uh maybe 10 years back there's no I mean I don't think so in in in uh in some Nanjong Malaysia they were having like each states were having their different elections. Okay. As far as we know that Saba and Shawat were running their elections separately >> but then since the previous 2018 like we can see that MA had the separate election then followed by Joho and now Joho again back and then will be done by in Milan and and eventually Ma will be on board. So and the people can even evaluate so first of all it's it's a the cost involving is a bigger cost. number first of all secondly and it's also requires the people to come and go and and it's it's a big hassle maybe if they they are looking for a change I think they would be out for to cast their vote >> but then why would they be looking for a change now Joho is doing so well >> Joho is doing so well in sense of >> economically they're doing well >> okay I see economically they are doing well okay but at the same at the same time if they economically they are doing well and Yeah, everything is stable and I don't think so there's a necessity for them to have the election >> but then isn't that just because anyway also the elections have to be held >> yeah the anyways so the elections have to happen but end of the day this is showing literally like >> the grid of power I would say so maybe in that sense I think >> so are you saying that if Anoa holds elections earlier than than than before February 2028 that he's also greedy for power >> no I don't I mean see end of the today like if ANO is hosting the election before the 2020 uh I mean the the the next term so it's going to run the entire nationwide election together it's not going to have two or three types of work but yet for this I I I personally felt that maybe grid of power one of the factor so that's what I would say >> but isn't this just political games here because generally speaking people especially political analysts have said that when you hold a state elections together with the general elections it generally gives more favor to the incumbent because people when would just vote for the same option on both pieces of paper.
>> Okay. So isn't that this is just political game you know it's sort of political strategy where you separate the state and GE so that not the so to sort of not let one party have the advantage >> maybe that might be the current uh part I mean in Joho state's perception I I would say >> maybe because it it it might sounds uh logic as well because if if the the election has been I mean running together with the federal and the the state the tendency of the people to choose because the federal government is much more higher. So maybe it might be a threat for the current ruling government. I mean the state government I guess. So in that case maybe yeah game right.
>> Yeah.
>> Now let's again go back to PR's performance in 2022. You say you credit this poor performance to lower turnouts and etc. Which is fair. I think that's also been quoted as one of the reasons.
But one of the primary reasons why analysts feel that PKR did so badly was because the emergence of Parikata National which forced which caused PKR to lose the Malay vote.
>> All right. So can PKR now >> garner the Malay vote based at least take a bit of the Malay vote back to them considering >> what's happening in PN the infighting you know is still ongoing.
>> Can they do that this time?
>> Okay. uh this time I I I my on my opinion I think yes they can do that because as as you said that previously like okay let's go back to the previous election every we were wanting data Ibrahim to be prime minister for years but then it was not been able to achieve okay and people were saying that oh if ana be in power and automatically the DAP will be in power or the the state the countries everything will be taken by the Malay I mean the Chinese and so on but yet Ibrahim he proved it wrong so whatever things that he's doing he's he's following the the palagan or whatever so he never even uh taken any rights or of the malays or nothing so and also whatever benefits the mean the people of Malaysia is getting it it's been shed equally so I would say that uh for this time even the Malay community they are having a good perception towards uh his his government's government because at first place the the economics of the nation is getting better our our currency rate is getting better and the employment is rate is getting better and in this case and also like uh if we look at the B40 families a lot of uh helps or a lot of initiatives been done to the B40 families and the B40 families majorities are the Malay uh the the Malay community because their population wise they are bigger.
>> Yeah. So when the population wise they are bigger in B40 category also they are holding a higher volume of families which is under the B40 category and and I think that this time and and people nowadays it's not okay if we goes back like years like 10 20 years back the resources were very limited for people to evaluate whatever comes out in the newspaper is is the news but nowadays people can see everything especially through social medias and they can do their own evaluation on how the government how the prime minister is performing so and especially how the country is performing and and I think after years and there's a lot of countries especially worldwide they they are keen to be on board in uh to Malaysia to come down and to to to venture together with Malaysian governments and stuff. So this actually shows a very good positive uh impact towards the nation and also the and also the the people down there they can evaluate this very well.
>> So you're saying that with all of this that the Malay voters will come back to PKR.
>> Okay. Yes. I from my my opinion yes I say yes most of the Malay voters nowadays they most of the Malay voters nowadays they they are not tied up with any political sentiment parties mean at the moment. Okay. they are more to to to evaluating themsel. Okay. So in that case I think yes why not the Malay voters might be supporting PKR.
>> Do you think that you'll be helped by what's going on between pass and baratu now in terms of getting the Malay vote?
Do you think that the what is happening between pass and bersatu now in PN will help you all secure some votes?
>> Maybe.
>> Let's hope so.
>> Maybe.
>> Yeah. Now the do you think that how PR performs in the Joho state election and I I I don't agree I mean I I would say that 12 seats is quite a number. I think it's quite a it's a ambitious number.
>> It's good to have hopes.
>> It's good to have hopes. Yeah. But I think anything above what it is now if it's an upward trend is a good sign for PR. So do you think that the performance of PKR in the state elections is any indication of how the party as well as perhaps PH will perform in uh GE16?
>> So uh previously when we see that uh the Saba election after the Saba election I think now the for the Suman Nanjung I think Joho is going to be the first okay >> to have the election. So maybe as uh this this current result might be an indication for the federal elections as well because it will shows the the the movement towards uh how the the people's perception how's the voters turn out and and it would might be a a good indications as well.
>> Okay. Now let's go to PHS performance in Joho now. So at the general launch uh launch as I said earlier BHS's main cell was that they did not want the dissolution of the state government or the state assembly right and it was it was done in a hurry they were painting BN is a who preferred power over governance of people what other things can PKR and maybe even PH what can they sell to Joho in the coming state elections besides BN's decision to resolve government >> so besides BN decision there's actually many things okay if we look okay at first of all you say the past 60 over years the the the state especially Joho state were hold by the by some national government and the major major issues in Joo were the the uh travel the transportation accessibility to to Singapore especially our workers who traveling day I mean every day so and if you look now recently after the PH government took led by Dr. Shan Ibrahim the RTS project okay it was been successfully done now okay it was created earlier but then the negotiations and everything was done by our great prime minister secondly and also uh what our defense may mean uh cyurin have announced earlier even the the system whatever systems towards the uh in in in the state country borders all been upgrading so that the people can access it much more easier uh to Singapore and they know they don't need to be queuing up there for one two hours in the high huge traffic and all. So these kind of initiatives would have they could have even done it way earlier but then why it has to be done now by the current uh the current prime minister. So I would say like especially uh and also like uh we we we I mean we see about the forest city projects and also uh recently they even launched the Maharani projects and all these initiatives why would uh the the the previous government they couldn't done it. So and how can a prime minister do it in with with just his three years in power.
>> Okay. So I would say that uh there are a lot of things more that PH can sell instead of just pinpointing Bisan National for hosting the election in inner urge.
>> Okay, speaking of which, what other things PR can sell? One of PR's biggest campaign themes is expect is expected to be uh framing the elections as support for the reform agenda of the prime minister. So of course we have heard this in his speech as well. He said if Joo gives the mandate, it'll be easier for federal and state to work together.
He said that at the Blancharan as well.
However, as I mentioned before, Dato Onhafi's approach is very hands-on. He even in a recent interview, I I heard him say how he had visited the causeway checkpoints and all that to ensure that Johorans don't need to wake up so early to go to Singapore for work and everything. These are things that really target the heartstrings of voters. Where else what you're saying sounds very top- down approach. federal level mega projects and one of the criticisms about Joho's success even though it's successful many say that this success economic success is not felt on in the daily lives of Johorans >> correct >> so where how how how I mean will this strategy fall flat on his face because people see D on a face they interact with him they see him talking to their neighbors but with PH it feels like I'm being talked down to >> so the question is yes he's in show showcast that he's going out and he's going and seeing looking at the problems and all. So looking at problems everyone can do but the solution so since the day I think he became the macha I'm also quite actively following his Facebooks and all yes I do see he goes always to check on it >> but then yeah he keep on checking on it so so I but he's good on checking on it >> he has to right he's a as government leader. So it's good for him to check as well.
>> So yet and it's been demographed as only in a single zone whereas Joho it starts from Sagamat up to Jehobaru. So but just seeing the people in Jehoaru especially at the TWAS border I don't think so he's influencing the Joho state. Interesting you bring that up because one of the criticisms to Joo as well is that the development is very much concentrated on the southern part.
>> Correct.
>> So isn't that the federal government's fault then for not making the development more spreaded across the state?
>> Okay. So it won't I mean I won't say like uh it's not been focused out from the state because recently if you see federal government when they initiated the Maharani part which is it's falling on the at the ma centric which is it's starting it's starting to focus on the the other part of of Joho as well. So and the reason the reason why it's focusing mainly on the uh southern part of the Joho because the reason was Singapore okay next to Singapore and it was developed and so on but yet now I can see that the other parts of Joho also is been developing as well. like initiative has been going all out.
>> Okay. Among the mega projects that as you say the federal has brought to the state uh if that is true uh and if it's not the Joho chief minister doing his job uh is the data centers that has been mushrooming up across Joho which has become a huge issue for Joho residents.
>> Okay.
>> So again that's your fault right you brought that in since you say you brought the development in you brought everything you did all the mega projects. It's your fault for bringing data centers that are now threatening people's water supply, electrical supply and all that off the state. Is it your fault then?
>> I don't think so. It's like um it's it's a fault or thing maybe. I think it's it should be planned much more in a proper way I would say. And even the data centers I think before the federal government took over by the current prime minister it was been brought over to Joho. So it was been brought over way earlier than him. So I think now I think if the cost it's causing some troubles.
So are you saying that the previous data center projects were because of BN not because of BH >> might be >> so blame actually I'm not blaming the any of the parties here but then if if it's is causing a trouble to the public the society then yes the respective people who's involving even it could be the state government or the federal government they need to look into it to make it much more better okay >> to make it as as long as it it doesn't affect the public's and and their basic things is not being affected So that we need to >> Okay. So, so it's not your fault. That's BN.
>> I'm not pinpointing generally.
>> Okay. So only certain mega federal government. Okay. Fine. Got it. Now you are AMK leader. So let's go to this then. According to an article in the wibes uh in the 2022 Joe election, voters below the age of 50 made up of made up almost 68% of all registered voters in the state. And based on 2022 stats, approximately 28% of Joe voters were under 30 years old. So now that that number would have grown you have so that means you have a large young vote block in Joho. So what is AMK together with PKR's plan to to Ghana the the youth block? Okay, for at the moment like we we are actually targeting close with the youths especially with various pro programs uh especially which is involving the youths and also we are also uh engaging with uh I mean uh mostly in social medias to to to educate them and also to to show them whatever things which have been done by the PH governments and all. So I think this time the the the young voters will be a big factor to decide whether who's going to be on the leading government and also the the young generations especially they need to be >> uh they need they need to go all out okay because as as what we can see now is especially the young youngsters.
Okay, we we we look back years years back the the the people they they are too keen into voting casting their votes and all but now I think the the the youngsters they they need to be more um more serious especially and they need to be very stern in casting their votes.
Okay. Because they they need to understand that their votes matters and and also the next 5 years is going to help them out.
>> So what are you all doing to get those votes? Their votes matter. Yes. But what are you all doing?
>> Actually we are getting close to the young voters. Okay. See and we we are going all out with with the young young generations and as what we said through programs through initiatives and also through our our social media campaigns and and stuff. So we are getting close to them but but let's see >> okay but considering the fact that BN especially AMNO uh in I think a few months ago came up that they actually recruited about a few thousand new members young members just through an Instagram thread. We know that the young vote block has swayed to PN especially after UNI 18 >> but Sama is attracting a lot of young voters. Muda is supposed to be a party that the perception is is angled to young voters. So in all of this are you confident that PR can really garner a majority of the youth block or are you all the last option for the youth? No actually I don't think so we will be the last option for the youths especially okay because there are still youths actually who's going who's who's supporting PKR and we can see that through our our our even amk's participations as well as even like the number of youngsters who's joining Angatan mudakard and just that we never declare disclose anywhere but yet the support towards PKR youth is also uh I would say is in a in in a in a very good signal it's not that uh is is with Basama and all. I don't think so. It's it's a major threat for P.
>> Basama is not a threat for you all.
>> I don't think so.
>> Are you all living in in sort of denial?
I mean they they they've grown very fast.
>> Everyone's talking about them every day.
They on social media. They are really t hitting Tik Tok and all this.
>> You don't think they'll be a threat?
>> Not at the moment, I think.
>> Okay. Wow.
I love it. Okay. Let's end it with this then. Uh again just to uh build off of off what we talked about in the 2022 elections which you all did quite poorly. Uh was the problem the candidate selection was it the party machinery or was it the overall sentiment towards PKR and PH?
Um the factors might be I mean there there are a few factors as well. Okay.
Especially like when it comes to and and and uh the previous lect was out of sudden first of all it was a very very sudden thing and and like especially now but now at least we have the previous experience.
>> Okay. Okay. Okay. So you're more >> wiser. No. So and uh I think uh the previous reasons were as I as I told you earlier the participation and and the the selection of the candidate were done uh I would say it was done in a proper way as well but then like uh previously they were uh like last minute uh changes in locations where the state the candidates were new and the local community they don't even uh recognize the candidate. So actually that was a a a tough point for for the previous election but I don't think so this time they are doing that. I think this time is much more clearer and and and also >> so you're interesting. So what are you all doing differently now then for these elections as opposed to what >> I think I think I think this this elections uh most most of the the the uh constituencies the local leaders will be contesting. So the local leaders who who the communities knows very well in that respective con constituencies they will be contesting there. So I think that that will be a big factor for the winning of these seats I I would say.
>> All right. Thank you so much, man, for coming on the podcast. Really appreciate you coming. This is the second time you're here and I love to have you back again.
>> Thank you so much.
>> So, wait, hold on. Are you running?
>> Only God knows.
>> I think the announcement is soon, right?
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we can expect the announcement by this week uh the latest by next week. I think by this week we would know the >> any seats that you have chosen. Maybe you want to give a hint.
>> Let's wait and see.
>> All right guys, so that was the deputy chief of Angatan Mudaka Dan, Mr. Sharin Subramani again very nice chat I just had and please come back to the podcast you always have a seat here love having you here thank you so much no worries man love to have you on so guys there we go Mr. Sharin has made a bold prediction that Piquar will win 12 seats in the upcoming Joh state elections from the one that it has now or previously before the state assembly was dissolved. What do you think? Do you think PK has a chance? Do you think they can win 12? Do you think they'll fare better than new parties like Basama, Wawasan, PN who are in fighting now? What do you think P will happen of PK? Let's hear in the comment section. Always love what you guys say. So thank you again brother. So next up we have many many more political members. We have one coming from Bama as well. We have people coming from past Bersatu. Please stay tuned. Lot of interviews, a lot of things to discuss in Malaysia's everchanging political scene. We'll see you all soon, guys.
Take care. Bye.
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