Labour’s Vote Collapse In Scotland Is Why We Need Burnham | Labour MP

[00:00:00]I think, you know, what happened in Scotland yesterday is such a contrast with what happened in Makerfield. I was actually on the doorstep in Makerfield yesterday and had been been there a couple of other times during the by-election as well. And you know, you could really see the difference when the voters in Makerfield felt like they were voting to change labor and to change the country. You could see the massive result that there was for labor and the overwhelming and very welcome defeat of reform. Whereas, you know, here in Scotland we had the we had the result that we did, which was just, you know, disappointing but unsurprising and it exactly goes to show why it is that we need that change so badly.

[00:00:37]>> Well, let's focus a wee bit now on the Scottish by-elections as well because the Conservative Party had a very good night. They won their first by-election in over 50 years and it was for Aberdeen South and the Tories took the seat off the SNP with a vote share of 49% and their campaign very much focused on the issue of North Sea oil. It's an issue that we discuss a lot on this show, drill, baby, drill. The SNP came second on 29% Well, look, we've got two guests to speak with now. We're going to be speaking with Alex Massie, who is a columnist for The Times and The Sunday Times. Hello, Alex.

[00:01:17]>> Hello.

[00:01:18]>> And welcome to the show. And we're also going to speak with Melanie Ward, who's a Labour MP for Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy. Hello, Melanie.

[00:01:26]>> Hello.

[00:01:27]>> Good to have you both with us. Alex, I'm going to start with um you. What How significant is this Conservative win in Aberdeen?

[00:01:35]>> Well, it's the first time the Conservatives have gained a seat at a Westminster by-election in Scotland since 1967 and the first time they've held a a seat since 1973. So, it is quite significant. One shouldn't assume that it heralds a complete transformation of the Conservative Party's fortunes in the future in Scotland, nor should one assume that it heralds the the impending doom and decline of the SMP. By-elections are laws unto themselves, but it is certainly a warning shot to the SMP, and it is a triumph and a vindication for Kemi Badenoch. And, you know, the Tories put an awful lot of effort into into this contest.

[00:02:14]The Conservative leader visited two or three times. I think this was something close to a must-win contest for the Tories, given the difficulties that are reflecting the SMP in this camp of Ryan Summer.

[00:02:26]And as a consequence, you know, there was a lot riding on this for the Tories, and rather less for the SMP in some respects, who have sort of priced in a defeat.

[00:02:35]You know, clearly the nationalists would have liked to have won it, but there is a you know, the message of this is clearly you know, this was largely a mini referendum on the North Sea oil and gas industry. The SMP policy on oil and gas is hopelessly confused.

[00:02:50]Do the Does the party support new developments such as Rosebank, Jackdaw, and Cambo? Actually, they can't really say that they do, and there's a big split within the SMP now between people from the northeast of Scotland, Stephen Flynn and others, who I think the party has to come out in favor of maximizing the opportunities that remain in the North Sea oil basin.

[00:03:11]And then the other parts of the SMP for whom the environmental aspects of North Sea oil trump other considerations, and they effectively think that the the oil should be left in the ground, which is also, of course, what the Labour Party thinks, what Ed Miliband thinks.

[00:03:25]>> And that's and that is a big debate point as well, because it's it's worth saying that there's lots of people in the Labour Party who don't agree with that. There's lots of people in the trade union movement who don't agree with that, like the GMB and and Unite, which are very big important trade unions and big donors to the Labour Party. Now, Alex, Labour did very badly.

[00:03:45]What what happened there?

[00:03:47]>> Well, I mean, it's you know, Labour weren't expected to do well in either of the two Scottish by-elections. I mean, Aberdeenshire brought to ferry was notionally the most marginal of the three contests that took place yesterday, but it was no great surprise that the Labour vote collapsed just as it was no great surprise that habitual Labour voters in Aberdeen South were happy to back the Conservative candidate. You know, John Swinney says, "Oh, we only lost because of tactical voting." Well, you know, every vote counts and the SNP has previously been very happy to be the beneficiary of tactical voting when it has come to hosting the Conservative candidates in the past. You know, but for Scottish Labour though, this is just another reminder that's for under the current leadership of the Labour Party at a at a UK level and so on, the party has no chance of making any significant or long-term progress in Scotland.

[00:04:32]And that is why, you know, essentially there has to be change.

[00:04:35]>> Um, Melanie, this feels a very apt moment to bring you you in. That last statement that that Alex has made, do you agree with that?

[00:04:45]>> Yes, I do agree with Alex. I think he's I think he's right about that. And I am sure you remember that you and I spoke a few weeks ago after the Scottish elections when I had resigned my role as a parliamentary private secretary and called on the Prime Minister to go, which was had been followed by a number of other colleagues, ministers, and then and then West Street and obviously resigning as well.

[00:05:08]And I think, you know, what happened in Scotland yesterday is such a contrast with what happened in Meeker Field. I was actually on the doorstep in Meeker Field yesterday and had been been there a couple of other times during the by-election as well. And you know, you could really see the difference when the voters in Meeker Field felt like they were voting to change Labour and to change the country. You could see the massive result that there was for Labour and the overwhelming and very welcome defeat of Reform. Whereas, you know, here in Scotland, we had the we had the result that we did, which was just, you know, disappointing but unsurprising and it exactly goes to show why it is that we need that change so badly. You know, I'm I'm speaking to you from Lincoln in Kirkcaldy in my constituency where I'm about to go and chair a community meeting because the community here is plagued by drug misuse, by organized crime, and by a whole range of problems that they cannot get any help with. And so now I'm trying to help them get the kind of proper support they need and that's what that SMP record is like what we'd like to be focusing on, but instead, as long as we have Keir Starmer in post, I don't think that's going to be possible.

[00:06:13]>> And look, and I I appreciate your candor, Melanie, and and you know, to be to be fair to you, you're one of the first people after the the local elections and the Scottish elections to come out and say, "Look, I I just don't think this is going very well." And and I think a lot of people really appreciated that. You're also a supporter of of of Wes Streeting. I mean, obviously Andy Burnham has had this very big win. What what do you think should should happen next? Harriet Harman floated an idea that this should be decided amongst MPs or that Andy and Keir and and Wes and whoever the man in the Labour party should get in a room and and and decide it. What what do you think should happen next?

[00:06:54]>> Well, look, firstly, massive congratulations to Andy and to his team of brilliant women who ran his campaign in Makerfield. You know, it really did show that hope can beat hate.

[00:07:04]But that if Labour is going to win across the country again, we have to change the leadership, but we also have to change the direction of the party.

[00:07:11]And Wes has been really clear about that for a number of weeks now. In terms of what I think I should happen, I think both Harriet Harman and David Blunkett as, you know, wise and highly experienced colleagues have to be listened to. What they have said is that key players need to speak to each other this weekend and work out a sensible way forward towards an orderly transition to a new leader. That's what I think needs to happen. Wes has said that he is willing to do that.

[00:07:40]I think at the moment though, as long as >> Presumably Keir Starmer's Sorry cut in I'm just conscious of time. I mean presumably if that happens just you know you know we all look at the results we look at what's going on presumably the outcome of this sensible summit is Andy's got to be leader and Wes should take a job with with Andy but would Wes be happy to to do that?

[00:08:02]Well let's let's see where we get to you know Wes has got the numbers to stand and he said that he he is he is willing to do that. But he also thinks that it would be better for everybody as I say for the key players to get together and work out the polling Melanie at the moment with the party which is if it is does it if it does go to a contest and Andy's going to beat Wes.

[00:08:24]Yeah but I think the most important thing is about what's best for the future of the Labour Party and the future of the country primarily and at the moment the main blocker to anything changing at all is Keir Starmer because he is insisting and that he's planning to stay and fight and and make sure that there is a contest. Most of us would rather avoid that if we can and so I think it's incumbent on him to to do the right thing by the country and the party and to bow out in a in a dignified way and hand over to new leadership with a new direction. Alex just 20 seconds please do you think can you see Keir Starmer doing that?

[00:08:55]Well I mean he at the moment no but then you know he's in the sort of Mandy Rice-Davies position he would say that wouldn't he? Of course he's going to say I will fight on and I will fight on until the death but Margaret Thatcher said that as well and then it was made clear to her by her cabinet colleagues that you know they came into Downing Street and they said well look Margaret I love you I would vote for you but I'm afraid the parliamentary party has made up its mind and they no longer have confidence in you and something similar is clearly going to have to happen with Keir Starmer and eventually he will listen to that. Well look at the brilliant analysis there thank you so much to Alex and to Melanie.