Richard Wolff (clip): U.S. Strategy on Iran - Surrender or Buying Time?

[00:00:00]Welcome back. We are joined again by Professor Richard Wolf to discuss uh the war on Iran or well more specifically the what is seemingly uh not a peace agreement but a memorandum of understanding. So um thank you for coming on. Uh when we look at the war against Iran, it seems now with this deal that either the US is well looking for deescalation or peace. uh I guess why one can come with many explanation.

[00:00:33]It exhausted its military capabilities.

[00:00:36]It doesn't look good for the midterms.

[00:00:37]Uh the global economy is being pushed off a cliff. So uh again it's still unclear I think if this is a temporary pause or the US is actually accepting a new and uh much less favorable status quo. uh but from where we stand today uh how do you read the situation in terms of the economic consequences of the Iran war.

[00:01:01]Okay, let me uh tell you how it how it appears to me. Number one, in response to what you just said, as an American, I was born here. I've lived and worked here in the United States all my life.

[00:01:15]Um, I wish I could believe even a little bit that this is the end of the story, that a lesson has been learned, uh, a deal has been more or less worked out, and that the United States is afraid of getting anywhere near any of this again.

[00:01:36]I wish that that were true. I don't believe it. Not even a little bit. Um, this is a for for the people who run this country, this is a uh tactical retreat beaten because they lost a war.

[00:01:55]They misjudged the situation. They misjudged their own capacity. Uh, they did a classic overreach of an empire going down. I don't think they learned what that means, which therefore translates into they will overreach again. Uh, and it's only a question of the specific situation as to how that happens, exactly when it happens, the form it takes. Could it be the Middle East again or Western Asia?

[00:02:31]Absolutely. Is that issue done? Not at all. If Mr. Netanyahu stays there and continues the the business in Lebanon.

[00:02:41]That would be an opportunity. If Mr. Netanyahu loses his job and goes to jail and Mr. Bennett replaces him, he's already told us he is going to deal with Turkey as if it were the new Iran to quote him. uh and therefore Lord knows where that's going to go in terms of uh Turkey, its relationship to NATO, its relationship to Russia, its relationship to the United States. This is as open an area of overreach as you could want. It it it screams for mistakes to be made by a group of people in charge in Washington who have now demonstrated that the the magnitude of the mistaken evaluations they can make are literally earthshattering.

[00:03:34]And so what do you expect from Mr. Trump or Mr. Hegsth or any of the other Vance Rubio? Uh look at them. you know they either initiate bad decisions or accommodate them but that's all they do not prevent them uh they haven't the interest they haven't the capability meanwhile the American media even though they will offer some criticism I wish I could tell you that the criticism is pointing in what you and I might hope for but it isn't if the Democrats defeat the Republicans in November, which is not that far away.

[00:04:16]And if the Democrats who win are the official centrist party dominating Democrats, they will do more, not less, to support Israel. They will do more, not less, to support the Europeans around the Ukraine. So what what what exactly is it that we should be looking forward to?

[00:04:43]Here's what if you want my opinion, here's what is hopeful.

[00:04:48]The fact is that Iran won. No matter what this memorandum does or doesn't say and no matter where it goes, that's clear. That is even clear here in the United States where there is an effort to hide that. That is impressive uh but not successful. And so you will have the left wing, the right wing for different reasons and with different objectives all agreeing uh to make it clear that this is not good. What what has just happened here not at all? And you can even see it in the ambiguity of the stock market. On the one hand, it wants to build up the notion that gasoline and oil will be cheaper than they have been. On the other hand, it's not so clear. It's not so sure. And it it's not so clear how long it'll take to get them down and how long they'll stay down even if you get them down. and what role will be played by refilling the reservoirs of strategic reserve that were used up uh over the last uh two three months because of all of this which in the United States is nearly the entire reserve that was created uh China also used up much of its reserve how's that going to all be worked out so if you put all this together it's not just that we don't know but that the lessons here are that we we cannot imagine that we won't be victimized by an empire overreach because the empire that's declining and that just overreached doesn't understand what I just said doesn't see it that way doesn't want to see it that way will not accept the notion of that even the most critical voices, people that I agree with and I learn from and that I appreciate and that appear among other places on your program. Uh I don't think quite want to go there yet. That there's relatively few who understand the concept of a declining empire with much care and even fewer who link that to what's going on.

[00:07:20]Even though in my judgment that's the key issue. The deterioration of the empire will shape how much overreach happens where and when and with what kind of devastating consequences.

[00:07:39]How about the significance though of the straight of Hermoose falling under let's say Iranian administration because from what I understand in the memorandum of understanding uh again we haven't seen the text yet but the Iranians will not take a toll which is defined as merely yeah money for passing through but they do take a fee. So apparently the difference between a toll and a fee is that the fee includes you know the operation of the of the straight providing navigation assistance for the different vessels, safety infrastructure, safe and rescue uh environmental you know issues. So it's supposed to cover all of this. I guess the you know it's not that strange in well it's not unprecedented I think because you see in the you know be it in the Bosphorus for example uh the you know the the Turks will take such a fee uh so but it didn't exist before and it will exist now and it also suggests that this very key maritime transportation corridor is not going to be under US control it's going to you know, at the mercy of Iran, if you will. Uh, so what what is the economic and security significance of this outcome? I I mean, people can complain until they're blew in the face, but you know, if the US could take it under their control, they would, but they can't. So, at some, you know, there has to be some recognition of this new new reality, no matter, you know, how unjust one thinks it is.

[00:09:15]Well, I I don't find it unjust myself, but let me respond to your question or or your issue. I think you are absolutely right. I think that is one of the momentous consequences and I would classify it as a staggering validation of the notion of a declining empire. Uh there was a moment during the last few weeks when Trump was giving answers to reporters and and the issue that you just raised came up and he waved his finger as he likes to do and says, "Well, uh the the straight will be open and and there'll be no fees or no charges, not at all.

[00:10:01]will be watching. And and if anything, what is he saying? Before the United States owned and operated that passage and made the determination to let it be free, given the allies that depended on it, given the the the way directly and indirectly the United States depended on passage there, let it be. Who cares? It's a free passage.

[00:10:32]Now the Iranians have shown no it isn't.

[00:10:35]We are going to take a an interest in it and we are going to supervise and we are going to overshadow it with missiles that nobody can take from us. And if you don't behave in the way we have declared, we are we have shown you we will obliterate your military bases in the in the Gulf area. We will attack your allies. We will attack anybody you use as a base to interfere with us. I mean, that's it. That an empire either runs the situation or it doesn't. What just happened was a change of management from the United States as the authority in in fact to Iran as the authority in fact. And of course they can call it if you can solve your diplomatic absurdity by changing the word toll to the word fee. And if this gives you a lot of satisfaction, God go ahead. All the principles in the game know what we're doing here. I have worked in my life with countless corporations. I know how they keep the books and they will move the the item, the expenditure or the receipt from one category to another to manage their tax bill, to manage their public relations image, to manage their annual stock report. and the and they'll move them differently and they'll get caught from time to time doing it and that just means they have to be more careful about how they do it. When you calculate a fee for the costs you have, does that include the missile batteries? That's a cost. You have to have a lot of missile batteries aimed such that you can get at a ship anywhere in that straight. They will do that. of course they have to do all of those are costs that they can allocate to the running of this of this uh straight. So the bottom line here is either the United States accepts that control of the Strait of Hormuz is now no longer the American prerogative. It belongs to Iran. Does that mean the United States cannot challenge it? Absolutely it could. Mr. Trump can reimpose the blockade that he has now removed. If I understand the memorandum, it includes the removal of the blockades, etc., etc. But he could reimpose the blockade, setting aside how effective it was or wasn't. But he could he could bomb again. In fact, this morning the headlines in this country, I don't know what you have in Europe, but in this country the headlines were he said he might bomb again if they I quote you, "If the Iranians don't behave, I will bomb them again." Okay, put aside the crude language. We're used to it by now. But it is also correct.

[00:14:00]He's right. That's what we will do. And if the Democrats get in there, it's not at all clear that they won't do the same. It was Democratic Party uh operatives who did much of the work moving NATO uh closer and closer to the Soviet Union uh and then to Russia. It was Democrats who pushed all of that. It was Democrats who have embraced Israel's uh political objectives.

[00:14:31]It was Democrats who have been pursuing the pro Palestinians, as they call them, who are really not pro Palestinian in this country. They are anti-Israel genocide. But, you know, the Democrats are right in there doing what they think needs to be done and being very hostile to the progressive Democrats. We have some of those like Bernie Sanders and others who are trying to push in the other but they are very much secondary.

[00:15:02]So this is you know it's a little bit like hoping that Mr. Netanyahu leaves without understanding Israeli politics to indicate no no that's not going to solve the problem because you have an Israel the the clear majority of which want to do what they are doing. So bottom line, this is a momentous event.

[00:15:26]It is a a a step, a milestone in the decline of the American Empire. No question about it. The damage to an American ally, in this case, Israel, obvious.

[00:15:41]The turmoil in Israel as a result, fairly obvious.

[00:15:47]the self-confidence of the Iranians and the fact that the other Gulf countries are busily reorganizing their relationships to Iran because they understand that they're right in the firing line of this game. For them, the decline of the American Empire is an existential threat. That was their protection. And by the way, and I know you discussed this on your program, that for me that's the same issue as as Ukraine and Europe, they the Europeans have had to learn that having made a decision for the last 75 years to completely rely on the United States left them open to what Mr. Trump is now doing, which is cutting them off.

[00:16:44]They bet on the wrong horse and now the reality that that horse is limping has settled in and a leadership in Europe, political leadership hangs on to a desperate Russopobia because they don't know what else to do since they're going to otherwise be left with a population that says You, the leaders, have been in bed with the Americans for the last 75 years, and look what it has done to us. We're de-industrializing.

[00:17:24]We're falling behind. The world is the oyster of the United States and China and Europe is an afterthought mainly interesting for tourism. This is not what we wanted. And you did it because you allied with the United States. How do you protect against that answer? You come up with a worse enemy. You can distract and deflect your people by focusing on an urgent danger that you have to hype all the time. So that people like you and me and many others looking at this wondering where does this hysteria come from? The hysteria, like any psychologist would tell you, is a clue that there's something important going on here. It doesn't have to be what they say, but something important.

[00:18:14]And the answer is it's an existential threat to an entire political class that has made its bed in a place that turned out to be deeply insecure.

[00:18:27]And by the way, it's even worse for the employer class because the European employer class, the capitalists, they are finding themselves squeezed between the United States and China.

[00:18:42]They're desperate and they're turning to their political leaders and they're saying, "You have to help us. You have to subsidize us. You have to give us cheap money. you have to compensate for the uh energy costs that have gone crazy and we know that you can't do that while you maintain the welfare state that you have built up in the 20th century. That has to go. You have to kill that welfare state and give us the money in military Keynesianism etc to get us through this bad period.

[00:19:22]And we don't care how you do it. You must do it. And the political class in Europe, how do they do it? Russophobia.

[00:19:31]You can justify, look at Germany, you can justify building up your defense establishment by making Russia the great bugaboo. Good for your politicians.

[00:19:44]You know, there there's a joke in the American lexicon of western movies, cowboy movies, and and the joke repeated endlessly in movies, goes like this. A group of robbers ride into town and they rob the local bank, and the population is outraged. Their bank has been robbed.

[00:20:06]and and they start to be angry at the sheriff because it's the job of the sheriff to prevent that occurrence.

[00:20:14]And the sheriff with a big grin on his face orders his deputies go out there and round up the usual suspects.

[00:20:24]In other words, rather than deal with the criticism of his community that he has failed, he comes up with someone they can vent their rage on. the usual suspects.

[00:20:38]Well, the usual suspect for you in European politics is the Russia, is the Soviet Union. is it is that the whole history basically since 1917 the bolevik menace and on and on and so with little imagination they have gone to work pacifying both their political anxieties and the urgent demand for government support that the business community imposes on them and for me this is all grist fist of a mill. This is the United States who for its own reasons has to drop its European allies, drop Canada and Mexico. Now misjudge Iran, drop Israel. Look at it. It's an empire in decline and it is throwing up disasters as it crashes downward uh in its historical trajectory.