Why Xi Jinping's strategy for Taiwan defies traditional logic.

[00:00:00]Dictator's decision-making is completely different from normal countries. Never use normal country thinking to judge a dictator's irrational decisions.

[00:00:15]For the CCP and Xi Jinping, the core logic is not maximizing national interest, but maximizing the CCP's political security or the ruler's own interests. As long as Xi Jinping thinks Taiwan relates to CCP regime security and his personal historic status, he will package high risks as strategic opportunities.

[00:00:46]Possible reasons Xi might take risks include: First, a deepening economic crisis needs nationalism to shift internal pressure. Second, among the younger generation inside the PLA, there are many radicals and opportunists.

[00:01:07]After long-term purges in the military, Xi may need a war to test the loyalty of the army.

[00:01:17]Third, Xi Jinping may believe that America is divided internally and they may not want to pay a huge price for Taiwan. Aid to Ukraine and Iran has emptied US weapon stocks, so America may be powerless on Taiwan.

[00:01:37]Fourth, Xi may believe that Taiwanese society is not united enough and there are many traitors. He may believe he can use deterrence to crush Taiwan's will to resist. Then pro-CCP traitors in Taiwan could take the chance to rise to power, says the government, and hand over the regime over to the CCP. This would also be a very good option for the CCP.

[00:02:09]Fifth, he may believe that historic status must be completed through the Taiwan issue.

[00:02:19]Duhuang's judgment is that the CCP is really preparing to use force against Taiwan.

[00:02:28]But whether war really starts depends on Xi Jinping's comprehensive judgment on domestic crisis, US will, Taiwan's resistance ability, and the international environment.

[00:02:44]He must especially consider whether the PLA's command system is complete.

[00:02:51]For Taiwan, the biggest danger is not war itself, but miscalculation.