Trump’s Iran Peace Deal Puts GOP At Risk In The Midterms | Caitlin Doornbos

[00:00:00]Nothing in the MOU actually confirms or promises that Iran will give up its nuclear material. It actually has in there that it will work to degrade its nuclear material. Right now, that's a completely different thing that we've been hearing in the lead up to this that that Iran would have to remove it or destroy it entirely.

[00:00:23]Um, the it actually falls quite short of the JCPOA and that is by design, right? So, by design the MOU is really just a memorandum of understanding. It's a lot of talking points. It establishes what they're going to talk about once negotiations really begin. And so, we could have a much stronger document, one that is even stronger than JCPOA at the end of the next 60 days of negotiations, but it's not a guarantee. And yet, we still are waving sanctions for the Iranians immediately for the next 60 days.

[00:00:59]>> How is the plan the announcement of the plan then, Caitlan, going down? How's it being received in the States?

[00:01:06]>> You know, it's not being received well.

[00:01:08]It's being criticized by just about anyone and everyone. People point to it to say, "I told you so. We shouldn't have gone to war." And then the people who actually supported the war, they're now saying that this MOU actually ruins all the progress that was made during the war. And so, if the political leadership here made that decision to go ahead and sign this MOU to help them with the midterm elections, that could happen because the economy will theoretically re rebound during these next 60 days of negotiations.

[00:01:44]But, um, it's not popular and I do think that it will stick around a little while longer, hang on the necks of those who were involved here.

[00:01:53]>> And explain what what's the bit what's the part of it because the argument many people are making is it's pretty much the same as uh what Obama achieved in 2015 which Donald Trump has spent a decade criticizing except for the fact that the US is possibly on the hook for spending more money and Iran gets a better economic position out of it.

[00:02:11]>> And also accept that nothing in the MOU actually confirms or promises that Iran will give up its nuclear material. It actually has in there that it will work to degrade its nuclear material right now. That's a completely different thing that we've been hearing in the lead up to this that that Iran would have to remove it or destroy it entirely. Um it actually falls quite short of the JCPOA and that is by design, right? So by design the MOU is really just a memorandum of understanding. It's a lot of talking points. It it establishes what they're going to talk about once negotiations really begin. And so we could have a much stronger document, one that is even stronger than JCPOA at the end of the next 60 days of negotiations.

[00:03:02]But it's not a guarantee. And yet we still are waving sanctions for the Iranians immediately for the next 60 days.

[00:03:12]>> Donald Trump's made a career, you know this better than most K. And you speak to him. He's very good at calling black white and and and calling his own game if you like. He basically says here's what's happened and it's the best thing that's ever happened.

[00:03:25]Is there a danger that this is one of those occasions where actually people think well what you're saying and what we're reading are just two two dramatically different things and we're not necessarily going to accept what you're saying.

[00:03:38]>> You know, that's a great question. I don't know if the American public in general will see it that way. But I think that I certainly have picked up on that and I think a lot of people who closely watch the president have picked up on the fact that this MOU is quite different, the text itself, not what the officials are promising will happen possibly behind closed doors during negotiations, but the text itself is so dramatically different from what the president has been saying all along that I do think that people will notice.

[00:04:12]>> How much is J.D. Vance being set up as a as a fall guy for this, politically?

[00:04:17]>> I don't know if he's being set up for as a as the fall fall guy.

[00:04:23]I don't think he's being set up. I think that he was really involved in making this happen. So, if he's the fall guy, he's of his own making, but I mean, who knows if it's going to fail, but that's that's what I can say.

[00:04:41]>> But actually, presumably, his position on this is we need to get out of this war, and so in in some ways, one of the the arguments might have been, we've got to do what we can.

[00:04:49]Actually, Iran have had more leverage than we thought they would have, and our job is to get out of this war at all costs now.

[00:04:55]>> Yeah, and I think part of that was J.D. Vance's thinking probably going into that. I don't know for sure, but I would imagine that he, in order to sign this deal, thought that it would reflect well on him, reflect reflect well on his statecraft, on his ability to end an engagement and not turn into a quote-unquote forever war, but the immediate reception is not positive.

[00:05:22]>> Uh meanwhile, this ceasefire technically includes Lebanon, although um who knows what Hezbollah and Israel make of all of this. Uh that's a vulnerability in the deal, I I suspect Caitlan, but it does raise the issue of Trump's relationship with Israel as well. What what's your reading of that?

[00:05:38]>> I think things are tense between President Trump and Bibi Netanyahu. I think that has been made clear over the past statements that the president has made, obviously calling on him not to take the strikes over the weekend.

[00:05:53]But, I also don't know how long that that will continue that BB that the president will continue calling up Netanyahu if Israel is fired upon by Hezbollah and and pressuring them not to respond.

[00:06:09]Again, that's part of the problem of the vagueness of this agreement is it really doesn't determine a mechanism for who and what are going to decide what constitutes a violation of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

[00:06:29]>> Yeah, it's the question of how much of a fudge is being is being discussed at this stage at least. Before you go, Kelly, and you you know Trump, you get to speak to him.

[00:06:36]How bruised and embattled is he by this? You see you've seen he's been around now in American political life for a long time. We've got the midterms coming up in just a a few months.

[00:06:46]How do you assess where this is all left him both in terms of how he carries himself and and and and the politics of it?

[00:06:54]>> You know, he's very He's very different than what you would maybe expect. He is in he's actually pretty energized. He's very optimistic. He really hopes that this MOU will turn into a a final deal. And he's he is uh determined too that if a final deal doesn't happen, then the US would probably go back to war. Now, that is different than what's being said from some of the US officials around him.

[00:07:27]Those individuals tend to say more along the lines of tightening the screws on economic levers. You know, we're out of the war.

[00:07:35]But, in general, he's upbeat. He's positive. He's optimistic. But, that's just kind of Donald Trump for you.

[00:07:43]>> Yeah, still unbothered by all of this.

[00:07:44]Kayleigh, it's so nice to speak to you as ever. Thanks so much for taking the time.

[00:07:47]>> Thank you.