Kenney, Teneycke, DeLorey: Can Canada's Conservatives build a big tent winning coalition? | THB

[00:00:09]20ome years ago, the PC party in Canada federally disappeared and over time was replaced by the modern conservative party of Canada. Um today we are joined by three of the leading lights of Canadian politics and certainly Canadian conservative political thought uh to talk about the state of conservatism and the state of the conservative parties in Canada today. Uh Jason Kenny's with us.

[00:00:38]He spent over 25 years in elected office, federal MP under Steven Harper and a minister under Steven Harper of several portfolios and then the 18th premier of Alberta. He's now a senior adviser at Bennett Jones and a senior fellow at the CD How Institute. Corey Tanike is of course my curse of politics co-host and the founder of Rubicon Strategies and a longtime conservative strategist who served as Steven Harper's director of communications and has run Doug Ford's campaigns in Ontario and and Fred Delorey. You also know Fred from the Curse of Politics and he's the chair and chief strategy officer at Northstar Public Affairs. He was the national campaign manager for the Conservative Party in the 2021 election and earlier served as director of field operations for Doug Ford and director of political operations for Steven Harper. So, as you can see, it's an august group. They have some strong views about the current leadership of the Conservative Party, the current direction of the Conservative Party, the role of populism in the Conservative Party, and the lack of a role for Quebec in the Conservative Party. I hope you'll listen. You'll have a great time. It's as good a banter about politics as you'll find. So stick around for an hour and learn about the state of conservatism in Canada.

[00:01:53]All right, Jason, Corey, Fred, how are you? Good to see you this afternoon.

[00:01:58]>> Good to be here. Good to be here, Dave.

[00:02:00]>> Right. So, we're going to be talking about conservative politics this afternoon. Something that all of you are pretty darn expert in. All of you have been involved in the federal journey from 1993 to today. All of you have run campaigns at the federal and provincial level. So, let me just start with a provocative proposition for you that you can all react to to get this going. Um, my premise for this conversation, which you should feel free to disagree with if you do, is that the prairie reform element of the conservative coalition is too dominant in the federal and provincial wings of the party to the detriment of the electoral prospects of those parties. Fred, what do you think?

[00:02:47]Sorry, did you say the provin it's in the provincial parties as well? some provincial parties >> in the west though.

[00:02:53]>> In the west, yes, sure.

[00:02:54]>> But in the east, like if you look at it, we do quite well uh without that >> um sort of uh philosophy, if you will.

[00:03:02]>> Um >> but yeah, to your point on the federal side, there's certainly I mean, when you have the bulk of your caucus comes from uh the West, you're going to have a tilt. Um and there's also not just the bulk of the caucus, the bulk of our voters. you know when we the number of elections when we win the popular vote it's because of our strong presence in the west so we are a strong party there just like for many years the Liberal party was strong in Quebec and that was their their base um but it certainly it certainly impacts us uh in Eastern Canada if you look at Quebec and Atlantic um we only have 15 seats out of 110 uh it's not a good number there and I think a lot of it's because we don't talk about our issues we don't talk about ours so much where we we do have a a lens that is a western lens a lot on our party.

[00:03:53]>> Interesting. Jason, what do you think?

[00:03:56]>> Yeah, I'm not sure I agree, David. I know what you're getting at here, but um I think that uh you know what's happening on the right is right now is uh a new relatively new development. it this kind of um alt-right populism driven by social media, alt-right media, influenced by MAGA um and really put on steroids steroids by the co experience.

[00:04:20]Uh look, I I I like you, I grew up in Saskatchewan, like you and Corey, and we saw the rise of reform in the late ' 80s, early 90s. It was um it was populist in the sense of uh you know just a sense of of injustice for the west and and frankly a lot of normal conservative themes. I mean one of the biggest drivers of reform was the fact that the Morrone government had failed to get the deficits under control and it was I would argue it was actually pretty constructive opposition. I mean uh the position that reform took on Meech and Charlotttown of constitutional issues was in many ways the same position as Jean Kretchen right and Pierre Trudeau which was no special status >> right >> um equality of provinces the position was on deficits was eventually adopted by uh provincial governments from um Ralph Klein's to Ray Romanos to Mike Harris's right across the country and eventually Cret Jenna Martin in Ottawa.

[00:05:21]So I I don't think it was a party that was radically outside the mainstream. I think it actually defined the mainstream. It was unqualifiably federalist. I never would have run for reform in 97 if Preston Mandy had been um proaricating conditional about his commitment uh to Canada for example. And I know that that I'm sure Steven Harper would say the same thing. What we have now though, this kind of stuff that you're referring to um I think is kind of suie generous. I think it came out of a it was a a a new pe group of people who had never before been involved in politics including reform. Uh I think there were two things going on. one righteous anger particularly amongst younger voters especially younger guys who felt completely locked out of the economy and home ownership and just having a normal middle class life and plus as I say rage over co and so it plays out differently in different provinces in Alberta obviously it is uh the most potent and arguably has taken over the UCP that I founded in some respects um but that's not the case in in Saskatchewan where you have, you know, the Saskatchewan party, I would argue, has been actually, David, pretty damn tepid philosophically and they've kept a pretty broad coalition and they've won what, five elections now.

[00:06:39]And in Manitoba, the PC party is what you would expect in Manitoba. BC is a question mark. And Corey can speak to that based on his recent experience.

[00:06:48]But, you know, you have this kind of like I think this young energy that's the younger frustrated men and and a kind of postcoid um anti-establishment populism clashing with what's left of what what's regarded as the old BC liberal center right establishment. We'll see how that all sorts out. But I I really don't think this is about like a reform era takeover of the national conservative movement. And I don't I don't think I don't see it that way.

[00:07:16]>> Can sovereign AI be sustainable AI? I talked in this space just a few weeks ago about the launch of our presenting sponsor Telles's new sovereign AI factories in BC, three of them. And now you smart listeners are thinking, how can AI factories possibly be confused with sustainability with all that water and energy usage I've been reading about? Well, because Telus is doing AI differently. They embed responsible environmental practices and innovation into their core business practices. So they've made these factories across the board more sustainable than a typical data center. Now I don't want to get all engineering nerd on you, but here are the salient points. The facilities are going to run on 98% clean energy using a groundbreaking liquid cooling and heat recovery system. A closed loop liquid cooling system will reduce cooling energy consumption by 80% compared to the traditional data center. Heat waste and electricity will be recycled and fed back into the grid as carbon-f free thermal energy heating more than 150,000 homes in the Metro Vancouver area. And then there's AI and the water guzzling thing. Telus is proud that water consumption at these three facilities will be 90% lower than any typical data center. For the West Georgia site specifically, the plan is to use recycled rainwater captured from the roof of BC Place right next door. In the average year, the factory will use less water than what falls on that roof. Zero water consumption is the goal. So yes, sovereign AI can be sustainable AI. In fact, some of the world's most sustainable more next week.

[00:09:06]>> Rory, >> well, I'd split the difference a little bit with with Jason. You like I I agree with everything you just said, Jason. I I think that's that's all true. I think it's a you know, a you know, a virulent virus that uh has infected us from from the United States in some ways. I think it's co I think it's all of that. Uh but I do think there's you know some regional truths to this too. Like I have long been of the view there are kind of five different you know types of conservative voters regionally and or five different conservative parties you know BC you know to elect a right of center government here proincially. It's a it's a coalition of you know blue liberals and and conservative voters.

[00:09:47]It's a you know that's the only model that has been successful at defeating the NDP over the past many dec decades.

[00:09:53]And I don't think that's fundamentally changed. The prairies, you know, it's uh, you know, rock solid conservative.

[00:10:00]Uh, it's Saskatchewan and and, uh, uh, and Alberta. Uh, you know, and I large portions of Manitoba, I think. Uh, Ontario, there's there's still a bit of a, you know, um, upper Canada feel to it. There's, you know, more toism there.

[00:10:18]And, uh, Atlanta, Canada, even more so.

[00:10:20]And Quebec is Quebec. It's it's a place unto itself with you know uh you nationalist uh sentiments mixing into that uh into their politics there as well. But you know why it's so hard I think for conservative governments to form federally is to win enough seats to form government you have to have a coalition of some regions that don't naturally fit together. and uh and the breadth of that coalition is, you know, has got to be fairly substantial and, you know, but there's instability that that's baked into it from its from its genesis. Um, you know, I I remember back in in the '9s and the 2000s, you Jason, you are doing reform stuff. Fun fact, Jason sold me my Reform Party membership.

[00:11:07]>> Um, >> and and Hurley sold me my Liberal Party membership. It's like apostolic succession on here.

[00:11:12]>> It's like Melrose's place around here.

[00:11:14]Um uh but but but look, I I spent a lot of the 90s and the early 2000s trying to sell prairie conservatism to people in Ontario and in Atlanta, Canada and Quebec and uh and banging my head against that wall along with, you know, a lot of other people and it never really worked.

[00:11:34]Jason, I think you were you were at this well, I know you were at this Winds of Change conference that we had in Calgary before the United Alternative, before any of that. uh you know bringing together reformers and and uh PC party members trying to figure out a way to not keep losing elections and the guy who stood up at the end of that uh conference and and delivered just a damning indictment of the entire endeavor was Steven Harper and uh you know but fast forward to you know 2004 and losing yet another election uh he came around in a big way and uh >> a lot of things you know for for example he um when his leadership campaign in 2002, his Quebec campaign was basically appealing to angry phones on the West Island. Um and then he realized he actually needed to recreate the old Steven Baker Moralon blue nationalist coalition with conservatives and became uh Mr. Distinct Society.

[00:12:32]>> Yeah, I think that's right. But, you know, I I think, you know, over and above that, I think there's one other thing that that could be teachable uh moment for the uh conservative party federally today. He brought in a bunch of people of significant profile uh in regions where the party was weak. He brought in Peter McCay and Scott Bryson and he brought in uh John Baird and Tony Clement and Jim Flity and he brought in John Reynolds and uh and there was an expansion of the team uh that allowed people in these different regions to see themselves uh in the party in a way that they they didn't if it was my point Manning or Stockwell Day. My point is the the ideological energy, the policy drive behind those provincial governments of the of the 90s, that's the the conservative governments that succeeded, Klene and Harrison, eventually what created BC liberals and Gordon Campbell, that was energy that came from the reform party. It wasn't go along to get along status quo Bill Davis style redism. Okay, >> I I agree with that.

[00:13:35]>> It was it was let's get something done.

[00:13:39]Let's tackle these huge fiscal challenges. let's move the let you know let's open the Overton window on a bunch of issues. Let's challenge the establishment on a bunch of things. So the fact that Harper was able to create a coalition with ministers coming out of the Harris government cuz you know as well as me most people in the Harris government probably voted reform back in the day. So there was a natural philosophical sympathy there and that's what I'm trying to say to David. I don't think this was like an exogenous takeover. I think it was uh actually the success of provincial conservative governments in the '90s was driven largely.

[00:14:09]>> But I'm older than all of you.

[00:14:11]>> I'm older than all of you. What do you >> And therefore I remember in the old PC party and this is probably where reform came from that the Western Wing was a bit of a rump and it was managed by the central Canadian elites, >> right?

[00:14:28]>> They never let the Westerners be in charge of the thing, right? I mean machine and >> yeah all that stuff and so it was a moderate centrist party >> that had this western thing attached to it. Maybe that wasn't the right formulation >> right now it feels like a western thing with some other parts of the country kind of attached to it. It feels like the western ideas uh that animated that are and have a metastasized a little bit over the years to become more extreme and second of all are running a bigger playing a bigger role uh than it used to play and that's having an impact on opportunities in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Fred, how does this impact on the actual running of the party? So, let me give you an example. I interviewed Michael Balagus who used to run NDP campaigns and he was telling me about the NVP about losing to Corey and Doug Ford. He was telling me that actually when you run the NDP campaign, you're not allowed to put together the platform that you think would be most electorally viable because you have so many stakeholders that have to be accommodated and need to be dealt with that you're going to inevitably have things in your platform that you have to have there that are unpopular with most people and are going to cause you potential grief. And the reason I raised this anecdote is when I'm watching your 2021 campaign for Aronot, which almost won. One of the reasons it didn't win was that the Liberals went negative on you on on an element of your platform about guns and gun rights toward the end of the campaign. And I was watching that campaign and I was going, why is that in their platform?

[00:16:15]Yeah, it's a uh that's a question I wish I was asking myself at a few months before that election. Um but uh I actually recused myself from that because I was a a lobbyist for firearms group then. So I actually had uh I pulled out of anything to do with that in the platform. Uh but it was a uh yeah that was a a big hot hot hot issue that OIC that the government brought in for our members. It was something that got people very fired up and if things like that aren't in the platform there are uh segments that will be upset within the caucus and within the party. Uh at the same time, we are we should be an election winning machine. That should be our focus and we should be willing to take those lumps. You don't need to have a big massive uh platform. I I'm actually a big believer in, you know, we don't shouldn't have a catalog that we're given to people to look through because they're not going to determine they're going to vote on that. They're going to be voting if we have the right story to tell uh as a country. And that's where the difficulty is as a country where we're the second largest land mass in the world and our population is on the string uh that goes right across it and we are very very different regions. Uh you know a lot of Canadians don't identify as Canadian first. They identify from the region they're from or the province they're from. Uh so it is a challenge to have these monolithic type campaigns and I I I would like to get to a a spot where we could have more regionalism uh and champion our regional issues as a national party.

[00:17:39]Corey, what are your thoughts on how to reconcile those five different voting groups you're talking about? And I'm I'm wondering, you know, um to what extent um like I used to have this argument with Jenny Burn on the curse of politics about surely you can take some of those extreme right-wing voters for granted and reach out to the reach out to the more moderate voters of the country with some ideas. I mean, every party has some voters that even if they're not that happy, they've got nowhere to go.

[00:18:09]Yeah, I I think there's some truth to that. Like running up the score in riding so you win by 25 points is isn't the objective. The objective is to to form government and if you have to make some compromises there, I think they're worth making. But I I think there's another element to this that is different and I and Jason, I think, touched on this a bit uh in his opening comments.

[00:18:31]the demographics of the party and what constitutes the base of the conservative party changed quite radically in the last federal election. You know, this is a party who the core if you want to talk about the conservative base is 55 plus people. Uh and uh and we lost both 55 plus men and women. Uh men only buy a little bit, women buy a lot and you know currently losing 55 plus women by you know a massive margin. uh but that was the core base of the party and you know this uh thing that's happened with younger voters particularly young men I think is something that's worth spending a lot of time thinking about uh is we saw some of that happen in the United States as well we've seen that happen in other jurisdictions uh for all the reasons that that Jason laid out but what I think is also interesting that we're seeing happening is is this sort of mandami type voter and I'll be very curious to see what the interplay between those voters and and Abby Lewis is uh because they're not, you know, despite claims by Pier Polyv and others that they're they're, you know, rabid conservatives, I see no evidence of that in any of the polling that I've seen.

[00:19:43]What I see is they're smash stuff voters. They're disenfranchised. They don't feel institutions and the status quo is working for them and they're not capitalism or socialism.

[00:19:53]>> Yeah, that's right. I think I think they're they're as likely to accept a totalitarian left-wing solution as a totalitarian right-wing one. And if you're going to talk about, you know, conservatism and what makes you a conservative, you know, if if you go back to Burke, you know, it's re reaction to the French Revolution, it's not endorsing having a convoy of uh people lay siege to the capital and demand that the newly elected government step down. Like that is the opposite pole of the [ __ ] earth uh to conservatism. But you know there it is and and it's that anger that uh that Jason was talking about uh you know and I think it's there's a demographic element to that and uh uh and then there's a you know a co accelerant that was poured on top of it. So how's this for discipline? Our sponsor CN begins every meeting, and I mean every meeting, with a discussion of safety. That happens whether the participants are the railways most senior managers or probationary employees. Makes perfect sense when you consider CN's job is moving around titanic powerful machines that take a long time to stop and possess enough inertia to crush pretty much anything in their way.

[00:21:07]Anyway, this week is the week CN has set its sights on spotlighting safety. It has even outfitted a special safety train whose purpose it is to connect employees along its network and celebrate those who have made the railway a significantly safer place to work. And I want to relay a little trivia about the tracks that train is rolling along this week. Tracks may appear to simply be parallel ribbons of steel, but they contain a pretty sophisticated system designed to prevent derailments. Embedded in the tracks are hot bearing detectors, which measure heat signatures that might signal an impending wheel failure. There are also acoustic detectors that look for unusual sounds that announce mechanical flaws.

[00:21:54]And impact load detectors. They hunt for any irregularity in a wheel's shape, flatness, cracks, or other damage. Wheel profile detectors constantly capture images of wheels to assess their condition. And of course, CN trains constantly pass through portals that use high-res cameras and other inspection technology to assess overall fitness in real time. The point here is that CN railroaders deploy every available technology to ensure their trains are running smoothly. The goal is to reduce any danger to communities along CN's routes to as close to zero as humanly possible. Zero danger is the goal.

[00:22:37]So Jason, what that sounds like is that conservatism got merged with populism and populism is taking over.

[00:22:46]>> Yeah, that's one way of putting it. And I suppose that's where you could say you could make your argument, David, that that reform introduced populism to Canadian politics. Although was always there. I mean, let's not forget that Moronia always had backbenchers who would pop up vote against bilingualism, talk against arts funding and and he had a big social conservative.

[00:23:05]>> Don't forget metric >> metric. Oh, and the looney. Don't forget the looney.

[00:23:10]>> By the way, the no doubt that Albertaan, the Republic of Alberta is going to revert back to the metric system. So, if you're still angry about metric, you're voting to separate. There's no doubt about it. Um, and so, yeah, but it this is a new populism. I mean, the populism of Tommy Douglas and um of Ernest Manning of like of of the CCF and social credit, it was still a pretty gental populism. It was it was standing up for the little guy against the powerful interests for sure. You know, prairie farmers against Toronto banks for example or the railways, right? That's what it was.

[00:23:50]>> And uh now it is totally different. I mean, this is a populism, as Corey says, it's a jackabin populism. The Jacabins were the most extreme people in the French Revolution. And it's a burn it all down populism. Uh we don't trust any of the institutions. They're all corrupted.

[00:24:08]And um I don't know how that attitude can function within a mainstream prospective governing or governing party that's being tested right now arguably in Alberta. Um and and and I think that's what's unique about this this moment. I mean I I I keep waiting for it to burn itself out, but based on the in my inbox, my email inbox, it hasn't.

[00:24:32]>> Yeah. But it it is an echo chamber. And I I think if if you're on X or you know social media platforms, you get a very outsized view of what percentage of the population is because it's 100% of your hate mail and uh 98% of the comments on X. It's not it doesn't play that large in the actual, you know, voting public, right?

[00:24:53]>> But in in party nominations in, you know, party leaderships, it has an outsized presence. You know, >> by the way, I I don't want to get David.

[00:25:01]I know this is not a conversation about separatism, but it is a manifestation of these things you're talking about in Alberta and what on what Cory's saying.

[00:25:08]If if the separatists get enough frustrated federalists to move from their usual 1 or 2% when they contest federal or provincial seats to 20 to 30% in a referendum, uh they are suddenly going to imagine themselves to be this big main like a mainstream political movement uh like a party Quebec sustainable long-term. And that means every time you have a federal conservative nomination or provincial conservative nomination in Alberta for the next generation, there's going to be a at least most of those ridings will be a crypto separatist running on the ballot. It'll be a separatist versus a federalist will be deeply divisive. And if I were a federal liberal or provincial NDP in Alberta, be very happy about that situation. But I want to pull the camera back if you don't mind for a second. We Canadians tend to be a little parochial about our politics. to recall that actually David uh like hardight um arguably extreme populism is virtually a non-factor in Canada compared to men most other of our peer liberal democracies right now in in in Britain uh where I'm recording this from uh today Nigel Farage would win a majority government and and he's being challenged from the right for being ins by a party endorsed by Elon Musk because he's seen as insufficiently anti-immigrant. The AFD is leading uh clearly in Germany. And by the way, talk about new voter coalitions. All the polls indicate that the AFD is the party of choice of gay Germans who are concerned about demographic and cultural trends. Uh the Le Pen Party, the Pllemo National, formerly the National Clearly had like Bardell is pulling above 40% on the first round for presidential. And now suddenly from out of nowhere, well not out of nowhere, but the One Nation party Pauline Hansen in Australia was a one or two seat party at the margins and they're now second place. They they're they're crushing the Aussie Liberals. So David, I would say in defense of Jenny Burn or Pier Polyv's approach about sort of not taking for granted the PPC, right? You know, speaking to that crowd, giving them a voice share.

[00:27:21]I I I I that's not my kind of conservatism, but I'll tell you maybe that's why we have avoided uh this a more extreme much more extreme um manifestation of right-wing populism in Canada, at least so far.

[00:27:36]>> Well, I think there's probably a lot of reasons for that, but you're right. It isn't as strong here as it is in other parts of the world, but it is very strong in the Conservative party, not necessarily among the voters even, but among the seemingly the people who influence it. Um I mean I was explain this to me Fred explain Jean Shereé to me. So Jean Shereé is extremely serious person in Canadian politics and he ran for the leadership of the party and he was beaten so badly that it felt like a statement um a statement about what kind of party it was and who was welcome in it and who was not welcome in the leadership positions of it. Um, and so I'm I'm just responding to Jason's notion that um, you know, I think I think the populist wing of the of the party is largely in charge in a country in which that's not the case with Paul Evan like the leadership and what he's done. Like he he was very much a populist when particularly in that leadership race. he was building up a uh a foundation for many many years of support uh across the country and then he was able to deploy that uh and build that coalition for himself and he hammered it in that leadership race.

[00:28:55]There was no one that was going to beat him in that. Uh in fact, if there was a leadership race today, if he was to resign and run again, he would win the leadership race. Um he would may not have the support uh that he had last time, but he would have very very strong support um because he plays well into it. So there there's no question that there is a an element of the party very much so that has this populist bent and it is problematic in many parts of the country. There is areas that it is a turnoff. Any kind of ideological stuff that it goes too far one way uh is a turnoff in certain parts. Uh you know look back to the Maritimes where we have only four seats there. When Harper was prime minister we had a majority of the seats in the Maritimes. Uh and right now there is a uh I would just say a very very steep hill to climb if we're going to go this route with this type of message and this type of narrative.

[00:29:45]>> Right. What role do you think Fred just stick with you for a second? What role do you think Twitter and social media are playing in driving extreme views in politics?

[00:29:53]>> Well, it's allowed people to find each other. These people may have all been around and had these views and had these different uh ideals, but now they can uh communicate with each other so much easier than they could have before. And that grows too. There's people who had no real ideological views who then get on these these systems and then communicate with each other. Uh so it's certainly expanded and that's why you know going into these referendums, the one in Alberta and potentially in Quebec, like we never had social media before uh in the last two Quebec referendums. So these could be big game changers. And you remember the Quebec referendum when that started the percentage was very low or low and it increased and we almost got to a point where Quebec almost tipped over and voted to leave the country. So I would be very very cautious and very worried about what is going to happen in these in the Alberta one and then the potential Quebec one because of the ability to communicate has changed so rapidly and to push out misinformation.

[00:30:46]I I think that's only part of the answer though, Fred. Uh like there's also, you know, a very non-transparent algorithm, you know, behind every social media platform and and what gets augmented and some of that is uh, you know, augment strong opinions that creates strong reactions. That's what creates engagement and keeps people on the platform. Uh but then there's also the ability to play ideological and political games with it. And I think uh in the case of uh Musk and Twitter I think or X uh I think that's uh uh a part of it and to what extent nobody nobody knows because it's not transparent in terms of of uh what posts get get augmented and which don't and and on what basis but there is uh you know there's there's something more going on there and then there's something more going on in terms of the use of bots and uh and the ability to uh you know create an astroturf appeal for certain views uh whether it's you know done by the platform or whether it's done by you know external actors using the platform gaming it uh you can create a sense that something is very marginal is actually mainstream it's pretty clear in the UK that uh Musk has put his finger on the um algorithm to advantage um renew I think it's Renew which is the right the the right-wing alternative to reform and and basically It's a it's a um insta party. It's just been it's been it doesn't really exist in terms of membership or structure organization. It is a function of Twitter and uh it just I think it just shows the power of uh of that of that platform.

[00:32:24]>> Every story here starts with someone wanting a deeper understanding of the world. So should the AI you turn to.

[00:32:32]That's why Anthropic built Claude to be adree. No sponsored answers, no third party deciding what Claude shows you.

[00:32:40]Claude is built to expand your thinking, not hold your attention. Try Claude for free at claw.ai/hurly and see why problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner.

[00:32:52]>> You know what it really does is create anger, doesn't it? Like when I go on X, I'm in a worse mood. In 5 minutes, I'm an angry person.

[00:33:02]>> So stay off it.

[00:33:03]>> Yeah. Well, I know. But but uh that that's I mean it's as much as anything it's >> that that's the whole ecosystem of alt-right media. Their whole business model is monetizing anger. You got to keep the marks ever angrier. So they get out their credit card. And I I I mean and by the way they figured out you can play to the whole anglphere. I mean, uh, our friend Ezra, uh, during COVID, he he was raising money from Southern Baptist grandmas on their master card to buy billboards in Alberta, saying that the dictator Kenny was arresting more pastors than the Chinese Communist Party. I mean, this this can be a global money maker all across the Anglosphere if you find the right kind of issue.

[00:33:46]>> Right. So, having had your experience with the UCP in Alberta, do you have any thoughts on how you manage these situations?

[00:33:55]>> How do you know I think how does how does a leader of a conservative party manage this situation? So, this is a we're going to get here into a really kind of uh inside baseball political question, but you know, political journalists pay generally no attention to internal party rules. One of the things that happened, but but they're very important, and this is what I want to speak to. One of the things that did happen when reform and and the pieces merged was you you know, the reform folks would show up at these conventions at 8 a.m. with their pencil sharpened on the Friday morning eagerly to debate internal party constitutional amendments with like serial points points of order very earnestly. and and they wanted to make sure the party governance ensured accountability and that effectively that there was a kind of built-in loyal opposition to the leader. That's exactly what happened with me uh in building the UCP. I was focused on the merger itself and the metapolitics of it and framing it for the general election so we could beat the NDP and the policy and like the public facing stuff. But on the Friday morning of our first convention in Redier, there were 300 hardcore populists with sharpened pencils rewriting the draft constitution to to enable like 15 different ways to turf the leader. Um because their focus was much more on like internal uh democratic accountability and process than on public-f facing um framing to win an election. So, a typical merged Conservative party in Canada, while they were down there rewriting the Constitution, throwing out, by the way, my commitment to a fet to a to national unity that I'd written into the original Constitution, >> right?

[00:35:41]>> Um, and creating all of these opportunities for internal destabilization.

[00:35:45]The old Tories were nursing their hangovers after the hospitality suites the night before. They, you know, kind of come down to the lobby at at at 10:30 in the morning to grab a coffee and the whole Constitution's been rewritten. So I think uh uh centerright parties they need discipline. Um they need uh and I would say that that the Ontario PC party has demonstrated this, the Saskatchewan party has demonstrated this. They take that stuff seriously when it comes to policing nominations, making sure crazy people don't win them.

[00:36:17]Um uh making sure the party can actually govern itself so it can demonstrate its ability to govern the province or the country. And and that's something we we lost track we we lost control of in Alberta. They're going to have to re get get control of it or the separatists will fully take over and you're going to have this untenable situation in that party. Yeah.

[00:36:37]>> But you know Jason Corey is getting no end of [ __ ] grief in his own party for and as a liberal I watch this with amazement but he's getting grief for apparently prioritizing electoral success over ideological purity. Um, and that is a controversial notion in your party.

[00:36:58]>> It absolutely is. We are I I I know many caucus members that would be happy to lose elections and not form government uh as long as they can hold their their principles and values um and and keep voting on those and not compromise them in any way. Uh that is you know us and the NDP are parties that are based on values. So when you have that you are going to have those types of positions.

[00:37:20]The Liberal Party is completely absent.

[00:37:22]When you go from a Justin Trudeau uh and the world is on fire, we need a carbon tax to Mark Carney, let's get rid of the carbon tax. So, same MPs taking photos at gas pumps uh right away as soon as they do it. Um you know, that is a party that is devoid and that's what we're up against. And when you're up against that, it's a challenge to beat them when you can be so nimble.

[00:37:43]>> Yeah, I I I think there's an element of that for sure. Um, but like this notion of a real conservative being an unsuccessful conservative is something I have a bit of a problem with. Like, uh, you know, how about we have a new rule that in order to call yourself a, you know, a conservative leader, you actually have to get elected by somebody. But, you know, I think part of part of the uh you know, trick about this is uh you know, when you can't win a general election uh and you want to maintain the leadership, you got to find another uh another test. You got to change the ballot question as to why you should stay on board and why you should be there. And uh and it becomes an ideological purity test. and and it's about self-preservation uh of failed leadership as opposed to actually making changes and adjusting uh your approach in order to win. But, you know, you're you're changing you're changing the benchmarks. You know, if if we're not about winning elections and governing the country, uh then what is it we're about? Okay. Well, then we're about being the NDP of the right. And at the federal level, you'll get NDP type uh results with an NDP NDP type approach. And uh I think that's the challenge.

[00:38:57]Jason.

[00:38:59]>> Yeah. Well, a agreed. Um, and you know, I I think we have some very successful center-right models here and uh at least politically um the Doug Ford government, the Saskatchewan party. But I would argue David that um you know I'm I'm one of the conservatives who say political capital is does not exist just to sit on it and acquire and accumulate it. It exists to be spent. And um I the reason a lot of us were kind of involved in the reform movement was we wanted a conservatism in Canada that actually had some depth of conviction um and would try to persuade the country to move in our direction rather than just being electable for its own sake.

[00:39:46]>> Right.

[00:39:47]>> And so um you know that that's the balance you've got to strike. Uh so I don't think electoral success is the only measure of success by any means. I I would like to see those governments, for example, and frankly, Fred, East Coast Tory governments, I know this is probably a an impossible dream, um, actually embrace a reform agenda around things like how about how about getting at the wokeism, controlling our universities and our schools? How about improving school curriculum and outcomes and school choice? And how about some modest healthc care reform, some more private options in healthcare, at least as much as Quebec has? And how about actually getting back to fiscal responsibility and tax relief and so forth? Are these crazy ideas? I don't think they are. And and so I would say uh uh we we we need a you know I think Stephen Harper was pretty good at trying to calibrate a kind of principled conservatism that stood for something uh that was reform oriented small reform oriented but was still electable. I I would agree with that, Jason, but I would also point out that, you know, as we were talking about Saskatchewan earlier, that a lot of the prairies and prairie conservatism, it's the home of the communist right where it's it's conservative on some things and deeply unconsservative on others. Like try, you know, what has the Saskatchewan party never taken on? The crown corporations.

[00:41:07]Why? Because, you know, Brad, sorry, Ellen Hermanson, you know, mused about that in passing once and uh uh and got his clock cleaned. It's a family. It's a family of crown corporations.

[00:41:19]>> Yeah, it's a family crown corporation.

[00:41:20]But there you I was uh was uh seeing um uh uh some comments that allegedly Trump had made about his voter coalition. You he was talking to Sacramento the mooch about, you know, you know, you're you're a Wall Street guy. Uh I bet you're fiscally conservative and socially liberal. And he said, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, I am." It's like, you know, my voting base is the opposite. They're they're socially conservative and they're fiscally liberal because they are they are poorer and more working class, >> right? Amongst the cognizanti h virtually everybody calls themselves fiscally conservative and socially liberal. It's it's the one cohort of the electorate that is smallest in virtually every western democracy by the way.

[00:42:03]>> Completely. Most people are social conservatives and fiscal liberals.

[00:42:07]>> Exactly right.

[00:42:08]>> Yeah. Can I just want to jump in just back to your your comment Jason about the east um like those issues you ran off I see all of them so much uh they'd be disqualifying to a lot of voters um and that's what makes it a challenge any provincial party in Atlanta Canada that ran on that type of a platform would not get elected >> I you know I think that's [ __ ] I what that I'll give you one example the Tim Houston like environmental concerns are much hot hotter in Nova Scotia than New Brunswick but he took the courageous decision to lift the stupid ban on on fracking and in gas development, but my good friend Blaine Higs never did that in in New Brunswick. Like New Brunswick, it's a resource working uh you know kind of province and yet still a PC government maintained a ban on >> I think that's an 8020 I used to poll on that. I think that's an 8020 proposition in New Brunswick though Jason.

[00:43:00]>> Oh on the anti-sect. Yeah, that's what and that I think goes to the disconnect.

[00:43:05]We're talking about east and west and why we we you know in Atlantic Canada we do so poorly because we think that these issues can translate there and if we just give the right message and say it the right way that will get those voters and it doesn't it turns them off uh big time. Uh, and Hurley, lots. Uh, I was on your show on this particular show, I think in January or February, and we were talking about this about Atlantic Canada and how how do liberals get elected in rural areas in Atlantic Canada where they don't anywhere else in the country. And it's we don't have the ideological splits there, the right or the left. It's if you're a liberal in rural uh Nova Scotia or rural New Brunswick, you're very similar to the conservative candidate, very likely, particularly at the provincial level.

[00:43:43]They're almost indistinguishable. One might be a little bit center right, a little bit center left, but they are very, very closely tied together, >> right?

[00:43:51]>> You know, Cory, one of the things I think about when I think about this is urban rural and how different they are and how much of the conservative base in the country is rural.

[00:44:02]>> Y >> and as the country urbanizes, the electoral math is going to get more difficult unless the party evolves with that somehow.

[00:44:11]>> I agree. But you're see you're seeing that happen in Alberta. I'd be curious, Jason, your thoughts on this, but you know, my view is Alberta uh in some ways is is like a younger Colorado that you know, Colorado used to be a red state, then it was a purple state, and uh and now it's a blue state.

[00:44:29]And you know what changed? And maybe this isn't the right metric, but I like to use the metric of tapest menus per 100,000. like you know when when you start seeing you know uh Calgary and uh you know growing at the rate that it has and becoming wealthier and and larger population it starts voting like a major urban area more and more over time and uh uh you know in the same way that you know Denver went from a very conservative place to you know a very reliably liberal place and so I I think that dynamic exists and and the battleground ends up ends up being the suburbs and I we've seen that dynamic in Canadian politics for a long time. So, you know, you've got to you've got to reach into a couple of different constituencies. I think you have to, you know, work your way into the suburbs and for conservatives, you have to work your way into uh you know, female voters. I I think these are two areas where where we have a lot of challenges and and so how do you orient issues to talk to that? I think, you know, you saw Polyv having a lot of success in 2024, uh, reaction to Trudeau, but also a heavy focus on affordability issues, which I think is a good segue into, you know, conversations with those voters.

[00:45:43]Um, but, you know, you can't scare the [ __ ] out of them on other things then, I think, if you want to if you want to get there. So, you know, maybe it's less east west, maybe it's more rural, urban, maybe it's a mix of the two. I don't know. But uh you know there's probably another balance that you have to reach around that. Um but uh at the end of the day you know when you do the math on your electoral coalition it has to get to a number that is viable to win an election. Otherwise go back to the drawing board. But you know my concern on where we are right now especially at the federal level is any way you cut those numbers we're going to lose and we're going to lose worse next election than we did last one. uh you know unless we you know find a way to broaden the appeal uh to other people and I think there are lots of ways of doing it.

[00:46:30]These these races are largely presidentialized. I think uh the focus on on leadership is always overstated in elections. So broaden out that leadership. I think, you know, I'll come back to Harper and bringing in other people who represent regions and different perspectives into, you know, have them share the face of the party a little bit. More of an Avengers movie, less of a Superman movie. I think that's one way that you could approach it, but uh uh you know, you got to have enough people who are willing to at least consider voting for you before you're going to form government. And I think that our voter ceiling is just too low right now. I come on. Voter ceiling pier got 41%. That's a pretty high ceiling.

[00:47:11]Higher than anybody since Mrron 88.

[00:47:13]>> Yeah. But but on a two in a two-party system, Jason, >> we did not we did not lose the last election on policy. I can't think of a single conservative platform leadership that was contentious. It was Yeah, it was vibes. It was we're facing a crisis and we have this guy from Hollywood Central casting the PhD in economics and this with the uh sober-minded temperament versus this young opposition leader and who's untested and and it was you know that that was the as you say it was pres presidentialized. It wasn't about policy. In fact, I think >> wait a second it had a policy element to it. Jason, if I could just interject, you can disagree, but I would say that the policy element was that Carney captured how Canadians felt about America much better than Polyv could capture how Canadians felt about Trump and America.

[00:48:03]>> Yeah. To Okay, I'll I'll grant I'll grant you that. Um and yeah, to the to the >> But that's that's relevant to this conversation and it's relevant to the base and all that.

[00:48:14]>> Fair. Fair. and you we've all talked about that u ad at nauseium. My point is that when Pierre had that 20point lead, he had essentially the same issue matrix that exists now minus the Trump disruption which is temporal. I mean he's going to >> and minus and minus Trudeau.

[00:48:33]>> Yeah. Yeah. But he's the the you know Trump's probably going to lose these midterms probably badly and then only two years to go and he'll start to fade.

[00:48:40]I mean lots of unpredictable things but fundamentally you know what is driving the rise of these uh alt-right parties that I've described across the western world um state failure of the state on a whole range of issues and it's as bad in Canada as it is in Europe or or Australia arguably worse on crime on social disorder by the way you don't see people you know uh drug zombies wandering around befalling the center of most great great European cities. The problems of social disorder, urban decay are more evident in Canada. The problems of the two-tier criminal justice system that's developed, which I think strikes most people as as peculiar or unjust, the driving the immigration system off a cliff, the consequences for the housing market, for access to healthcare, the dysfunction in the Canadian health care system. We have one of the most expensive systems in the world with some of the worst outcomes. I could go on and on. There is a I mean that the total locking out of economic opportunity for for social mobility for younger people, younger men in particular, I mean there is a I don't actually think Canadians are wedded to like a steady steady as she goes status quo message. And you know, M Mr. Carney conveys himself as a change agent and so far successfully changing from Trudeau. That's a gift for him. My point is there's lots of of of issues where an energetic principled uh conservative message can find I think an electoral uh majority crime, immigration, health care, housing, ta taxes, uh social order, etc. I I I think there's a lot of truth in that. Jason, I want to come back to one other thing that you said like cuz this this one kind of irks me uh with respect to, you know, getting 41% in election.

[00:50:40]You know, Canada fundamentally is a 60/40 progressive uh country in terms of attitudal polling over many decades. And at the federal level, we tend to win on a vote split. And in Ontario, we win on a vote split. And every morning when I get up and I'm trimming my beard and looking at myself in the mirror, the first question I ask every day is, "What can I do to help the NDP today? What can I do to help the NDP?" Because that vote split is the key to actually forming government. And you know what the answer has never been? run a $10 million attack ad campaign against them and then position myself on issues so much that uh a bunch of, you know, uh uh hyper left-wing urban voters vote for a central banker over uh o over the socialist party. Like those are that's there's a lot of bad strategy uh at the core of uh of these electoral defeats as well, but that is one of them. You know, a vote split on the left is is how most conservatives in this country win. And uh and to forget that is is a major [ __ ] error. Yeah. You know, in Ontario, post Davis before Ford, the PC party was pretty right-wing. I mean Harris made it quite right-wing and uh people that followed and well John Tory I don't know but Hudac one of the one of the signature differences of the new regime uh that I think repositioned conservatism in a more moderate way again in Ontario was the embrace of trade unions. Um previously the party had been uh uh virulently against trade unions promising to bring in legislation that would be damaging to unions. now they have a full-on partnership with them and the private sector unions all support the conservative party um which really makes it more difficult for other parties to argue that they're the voice of working people uh when the trade unions are supporting the conservatives.

[00:52:34]So that's the kind of surprise me move play against type a little bit that makes people think you're more pragmatic and flexible. Does the federal party have those kind of moves in it?

[00:52:46]>> Well, they tried they've tried the Union one, I think. Yeah. Look, any and they didn't just try. It tried successfully.

[00:52:54]>> Um and and David, every seat in Windsor and area and couple of the Hamilton seats in Ashawa and Tim the these like traditional bluecollar NDP seats went conservative last time, right? And that's that's why Carney didn't well I think one of the reasons that the conservatives overperform what was expected in Ontario was precisely that.

[00:53:16]So I I I would argue he did do that and and that was quite a transformation because I remember in caucus Pierre was that was not his in the Harvard era that was not his view.

[00:53:26]>> Um but he did demonstrate and you know what I would argue that I did this with Steve for Steven Harper's uh party with the new Canadians with immigrant communities. We were supposed to be the party that was at best indifferent immigration.

[00:53:38]>> Correct. won the 2011 majority by winning a higher share of votes of immigrants than nativeborn Canadians. I think we were the first and perhaps only center-right party in a major democracy to do that. So when we put our mind to it, we can convey a kind of common sense conservative message to new voter groups.

[00:53:57]>> Well, what else happened in in 2011 to get a majority? You had the highest voter percentage for the NDP in, you know, living memory. Uh so like that that was a major factor as well. Uh but look, I I I don't think that that the union vote moving over to conservative is is a radically new thing. I think union leadership of private sector unions supporting conservatives is a new thing. Uh but uh you know if you drive an F-150 and have steel toe boots and you know work with your hands and you know stand at attention when the national anthem's played and wear a poppy on remembrance day like that is a typical uh color trade union worker and they are they are culturally and every other way conservative uh and and so bringing those people over as voters I think Mike Harris did quite a good job of that. Like he went ashawa he won places that were union strongholds prior to that. Um I think >> the Gory the difference is and you know it is Polyv was appealing to union voters right on a cultural basis but he wasn't appealing to union leadership and he wasn't embracing union leadership and he wasn't embracing the idea of unions the way that the Ford government has.

[00:55:08]>> I I think there's been a lot more openness in terms of their policy around that than than was there before. I agree with Jason like that there is there is a definitely a change in in policy not just vibes uh when it comes to that stuff. Look the the tension in the union movement is now between public sector and private sector unions. I think there's a big schism in terms of how they they view the world and uh and I think uh private sector unions are natural conservative voters and I think that's why they're moving over uh and you're seeing those changes but uh you know public sector has probably never been more opposed to conservatives.

[00:55:42]Yeah. Yeah.

[00:55:44]>> Hey, Fred, we're running out of time here and I got to get to Quebec. I want to hear when conservative leadership like yourself get together to talk about the future of the party, what do you say about Quebec?

[00:55:57]Uh, well, there's really two streams of thought, I think. One is find some good Quebecers to run it and to figure it out for us or we try to figure it out on our own. And I think different campaigns have tried different things. Uh, and none have worked. Um now I shouldn't say that if you look at what Stephen Harper did like when the the PC party decades decades and decades other than Maroon Defantbaker would get zero to one seats and now we do have a base of support there. We have 11 seats right now and they win by big numbers. So there is a there is a small C conservative vote in Quebec for us and that we can grow it.

[00:56:32]Uh but we haven't been able to tap that to get it to the numbers we need. It's 78 seats there and it's very hard. I know we got one majority with only five seats there uh in 11, but that was almost you know I don't want to say fluke because it wasn't a fluke but it was you know only record-breaking vote split record breaking vote split >> right but we need I truly believe we need to figure out not just how to we talk about winning elections we need to win majorities now because if we if polyv got a minority government if you got more seats than carney in the last election I don't think he would have became prime minister I don't think they would have allowed them to the the other parties are to the left by quite a bit.

[00:57:13]>> Um, so we need majorities in our uh in our in our uh elections to be able to govern and Quebec and Atlantic Canada again 15 of 110 seats we have. That's not enough uh if we want to actually get there. Well, especially with the Liberals now being competitive in British Columbia and maybe at some point in the near future competitive in a place like Calgary, um it's going to force the Conservative to get more competitive in Quebec. And and getting more competitive in Quebec will imply allowing Quebec to have more influence over your party. And I guarantee your party will moderate if that happens.

[00:57:52]Well, certainly that that the Quebec caucus with 10 seats or whatever it was in the Harper government exercised disproportionate influence. I assure you um for all the obvious reasons.

[00:58:06]>> Yeah, it's a it's a conundrum for them.

[00:58:08]I think what the most you know uh common response to it is to ignore the problem.

[00:58:14]But like the numbers in BC are abysmal for us right now utterly. The numbers in Quebec even worse. like uh the numbers softened, you know, probably by, you know, 15 points in Ontario.

[00:58:26]We're not lining up for a good outcome here right now, guys. Like it's and and you know, the time to alter course, I think, is is now if we want to uh have a better outcome and like there are lots of ways of doing it, but you know, it's it's hard to imagine that being successful without at least a change in approach by the current leadership, if not a a change in leadership. But, you know, doing more of the same thing, I do not think is going to yield uh a better result. Uh you know, Trump can go away, but Trumpism isn't going to go away.

[00:58:58]Problems with the US are not going to go away. And uh and the comparative choice between leaders in a presidentialized system is not going to go away. So, you know, you've got to you got to change what that leadership question looks like one way or another. And you know whether that's repositioning uh or whether that's a you know a more tangible change I guess you know the future will say but uh you know status quo I just don't think is a very appealing option uh right now for a lot of conservative voters and for I think a lot of people in caucus.

[00:59:30]>> Yeah. Fred, what's your last word on this a bit? Uh look, I think if we have an election any time between now and 3 years, we're not looking to be uh doing very well in that. So there certainly needs to be some kind of a course correction as uh as Cory has mentioned, but what that is and what that looks like. If I was right now advising the leader, I would be stripping down the leader's office to its nuts and bolts and building. I'd be hiring forensic accountants to come in and watch what the Liberals are doing. Watch where the money's going. Watch how they're doing things and prepare that way. Uh and prepare for the next election. Don't prepare for this week's headlines. And that seems to be what the current focus is. And I don't I think it's a disservice to them uh to the conservative movement when you're just chasing headlines. Um you got to think what what's the country going to look like in 3 years time? uh what's going to be the issue set to try to get ahead of that. Paul Evas had some fortunate luck at times and maybe not luck but predicting uh he predicted inflation uh long before it became a mainstream thing. So he does have that ability to look around the corner. Um so you know if I was advising leadership that's what I'd be saying to them.

[01:00:37]Jason you were there right for the creation of the Conservative Party of Canada. Um how is this iteration compared to what you envisioned?

[01:00:49]Well, um I think it is broadly uh similar uh but what again what's different has been with conservatism uh in Canada has been this kind of the re the the events I described at the beginning the um influence of of mega of of alt-right media social media all put on steroids by by the co experience and that's made it harder to manage the coalition. Um, and then this this whole wild >> Just take a second and explain CO. What do you think CO did?

[01:01:25]>> Broke a lot of brains.

[01:01:26]>> I mean, it's just such a mystery to this whole thing. We don't talk about it as a society. Nobody talks about it. Nobody mentions it. It's like something that never even happened, but it appears to have broken us as a society in some way.

[01:01:38]I think uh politically uh there is a relatively small cohort of the population single digits who uh truly believe like every suspicion, fear or anxiety they had about institutions and elites or government generally was for them uh manifest as a huge conspiracy arbitrarily to user their rights and liberties and inflict upon them a dangerous experimental uh a fake vaccine. And you know, I think it it drove a lot of people down a rabbit hole of endless conspiracy thinking and it drove a number of those people into political activism for the first time. Now, I don't want to say that this is the majority faction of the Conservative Party of Canada, but it is a faction and um it's something that has that that that any leader has to manage.

[01:02:29]Um so I would say by the way I disagree with Cory on leadership. I think flipping leaders every few years makes no sense. I think Kier, you know, 41% growing the coalition in many good ways deserves a second shot. He has the support of the party for a second shot.

[01:02:45]He he's a smart guy, can learn from the lessons of the past. Trump is going to burn off and burn out eventually. And I think Mr. Carney is going to underwhelm on on the huge expectations he's created. There's those deep underlying issues of dissatisfaction I've enumerated. So I I I'm not uh despondent. I I do think um it's a tough job he has uh but it would be tough for any leader.

[01:03:10]All right, listen with that. I want to thank you gentlemen very much. This is been a great conversation. I'm sure Canadians are going to have a great time chewing over this over the weekend arguing about it. We'll probably all hear about it from various people. Um and uh but I really really enjoyed the chance to talk politics with you guys.

[01:03:27]So smart. It's great.

[01:03:30]>> Thanks, David. Thanks David. Take your pants from >> All right. Take care. Listen to all you Hurly Bites. Thank you for watching and listening. And I want to thank our sponsors for making this possible and Fred and Corey and Jason.