BREAKING: NETANYAHU HALTS ALL MILITARY OPERATIONS - w/ Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski

[00:00:03]Hi Karen. How you doing?

[00:00:05]>> I'm doing fine. Fine, thank you.

[00:00:07]>> Um, yes. So, I'm not sure if you saw what just happened, but um, yesterday we got reports of a ceasefire, but it was not confirmed. And there were reports actually saying US officials say Israel promised a ceasefire. And then ceasefire and Israel just escalated.

[00:00:25]They started bombing the halan of a big hill which is considered his stronghold next to Nabat. And everyone was confused like what is Israel doing etc. And for me it seemed that what they were doing was the same thing they always do when they're about to abide by a ceasefire. They escalate to try to get some last bit of victory before abiding by it. And they did escalate heavily yesterday. Tried to advance and capture that hill before accepting to the ceasefire. Iran is like you know screw this enough is enough today. They closed the straight of Hummus yesterday. They said they canceled the negotiations even though they went there anyway. Some of their members went there because I think the Americans told them, hey, Israel will stop their attacks. I think that's what happened behind the scenes. So Iran said, okay, we'll send some a delegation there to start the talks. But then when Israel continued, they closed the straight to Hammuz. And last about an hour later, Israel abided by the ceasefire. It's official now. I don't know if it's official, but all Israeli media is reporting it. And it's quiet on the Lebanese front. has been quiet for about 2 hours now on the Lebanese front and it says Israel has channel 12 says Isra Netanya has ordered all military operations to halt after pressure from Iran. Um and I boarded a plane to go to to Switzerland. So it seems >> that we may I I I feel this ceasefire will stand. I think there's so much pressure on Netanyahu. There's even a report on channel 12 that Trump has opened lines of communication with Netanyahu's opposition. So, I think putting all this together, I think it's >> I think we may see this one stick. What do you think, Karen?

[00:01:58]>> I don't know. I the last I heard was that the strait had closed in response to these u the the uh you know violations of the ceasefire in particular the violations of theou um and now and so now Israel has made the order to halt their military activities.

[00:02:17]Is that throughout South Lebanon?

[00:02:19][snorts] >> All military activities in Lebanon. They are striking Gaza now. They're striking northeast Gaza in the last hour because they can't just ease up everywhere. So there's been explosions in Gaza City and Khan Ununice, but are not Israeli attacks. The IDF is currently demolishing infrastructure in East Khan.

[00:02:35]Oh, they're not attacking heavy Israeli artillery fire on the That was uh eight.

[00:02:42]Hold on. Heavy Israeli artillery fire on the outer districts of Nabatia, southern Lebanon.

[00:02:48]Israeli navy fires at Rafa Co, southern Gaza Strip. But Lebanon, I just read that it's been quiet on the Lebanese front. So is there maybe like a la last bit of an attack? [snorts] Interesting.

[00:02:59]There's one scene. I don't know if it's outdated. Maybe they just I think this is outdated. They're reporting it now.

[00:03:04]But this is the strikes from that happened before.

[00:03:07]>> No one else is reporting it. So yeah, it seems there are strikes in Gaza. Um not only demolition, but actual strikes.

[00:03:13]>> Yeah.

[00:03:14]>> Uh the Navy's firing there, but nothing on the Lebanese front >> from what I'm seeing right now. I mean what it it it really shows that um you know if who has the power and how power can be leveraged between really between multiple nations because you know Iran I mean we always talked about Iran had maintained the strategic initiative and clearly was conducting their defensive war uh since March you know during March and April they were doing it very uh consciously very conscientiously you know very uh um thinking it through you know long-term what gains can we make that we can use later and you know the the leverage over the straight it's been huge and it has you know we have seen uh I mean there was a price to pay for that right when the straight is not passing through Iranian uh oil then they're not selling the oil so but they were willing to pay that price to demonstrate the power that they have which they do have clearly and then they used it again to get Israel to back off which I don't know if that was because we you know the you know Trump like he said in in his meeting in Evian you know we have four weeks of security of global uh state petroleum reserves remaining four weeks and then it's zero then you then you have nothing so Trump feels the global pressure of the straight being closed and then they they can leverage Trump who can leverage Israel But that part where Trump leverages Israel, that is very unclear on exactly how that works.

[00:04:53]But um it's very clear to see how Iran is using the power that they have that that they really have asserted um and developed since this war started. So um you know this war was not a good thing, but the outcome is is I think uh very dramatic, very uh uh major. You know, Trump signed the he signed his version of theou well well theou he signed it in Versailles and you know Versailles is a place where you know great treaties and and uh uh you know I I've lost I've lost so I go to Versailles and they do it but we were the ones the West and certainly the United States lost and he but he very proudly signed the the thing and it does signify uh it signifies a great change in the world order. I don't know if Trump truly gets it yet, like how big that change is because I think he lives in the 80s and 90s, you know, he doesn't he's typical of a lot of uh people his age really, you know, uh he has a sense of what America is, just like Vance called us a superpower. Um I would never say the United States is a superpower, but you know, that is the belief of a lot of people that we are the superpower and really we're not anymore. You know, we're a declining empire. We don't have staying power in our military operations. We have very poor leadership and and and military uh uh strategic skills. Our skill sets are very stale.

[00:06:19]And um we saw that we saw that in this in this uh Iran war. So the world has changed. That signature of the of a a memorandum in Versailles really does signify a major change in the world. But it's not towards Western power. It's not towards American greatness. It is towards uh a new global future which is not just multi-olar but um the wealth is flowing eastward. The the power military uh skill sets military capability is all it's all flowing eastward.

[00:06:52]>> You said something um you didn't say it but you kind of hinted at something interesting while you were speaking. You said that uh you're not sure whether Israel seized fire because of Trump's pressure and Trump opening lines of communication with the opposition or it's because Iran eventually closed the trade of homes. That's a very interesting point on who's who's the reason or is it a bit of both?

[00:07:14]>> Yeah, I mean I think we don't know and people who look at um the USIsrael relationship and that's a lot of people because it's an important relationship.

[00:07:21]It it causes lots of uh uh problems. it, you know, it's it's a it's a serious issue. We don't know who's in charge. I mean, Trump clearly mouths off frequently that I'm in charge. I'm the boss. I'm your daddy. You know, I control. Israel does what I said. I could be elected the next prime minister of Israel. I'm so loved there. Um, so he's all about I tell Israel what to do and they do it. And Israel, of course, is a much smaller country, very uh strategically wise. you know, they've been working the United States um tactically, politically, strategically for really since the beginning, since the 50 late well, yeah, since the 50s.

[00:08:00]So, they see us as kind of I think the Israelis, the Israeli government and Israeli politicians and people see the United States as maybe a partner, but not a senior partner. They're the senior partner. So, there's they have their opinion and we have our opinion. So, it's hard to say what it is. And you know, Trump was saying that Israel in Versailles just a few days ago was saying clearly, "Oh, don't worry about Israel. Don't worry about Israel. They're going to do what I tell them." That's what he said. And what did they do? What they always do, which is not what he told them. Now, unless we don't have full visibility into what he told them, you know, Trump is like many American presidents show he's beholden to Israel. Maybe Trump said, um, Israel, do what you got to do.

[00:08:47]Uh, we'll figure it out. I don't think the Iranians, it won't cause a problem.

[00:08:52]Do what you got to do. Which is maybe, oh, well, we got to keep bombing, you know, South Lebanon. We need to knock down some more buildings. We need to destroy some more territory and run out some more people in Lebanon, so we'll just keep doing that. And then Trump watches to see what Iran how re how Iran reacts, which of course they did react.

[00:09:11]And they reacted in a very um gentlemanly way, I have to say, because um you know, the people in Iran, what they want to have happen to Israel, we know, right? They want Israel to receive ballistic missiles, multiple numbers of them. They want Israel to be punished for what they're doing, what they always do, and what they're currently doing in Lebanon and Gaza and the West Bank. So, the people of Iran, if if it was their choice, missiles would have flown into Israel. But the government of Iran has like okay we have a tiered response. Um we've got this thing in a very orderly manner. We have aou we identified the key paragraphs that must be in place before we talk and we'll shut the straight. So this shutting the straight doesn't kill people in Israel, right? Shutting the straight puts ma major pressure on Trump and the rest of the world. Um, that's the first tier >> and they keep it in reserve. Second tier, third tier, whatever they have to do. So, um, it could very well be Israel understanding, oh, I didn't think they were serious. I see that they are. Uh, next time they'll send missiles, we can't defend ourselves. Trump is mad.

[00:10:23]yada yada. Okay, we'll do it. I don't know. But that's not the same as uh the United States telling Israel what to do.

[00:10:30]It's not the same as a real agreement, anouou that embraces the USIsraeli alliance in an honest way. We are not being honest. And Israel, I mean Iran is very they're very wise to not trust the Americans and they're of course the whole world is wise not to trust the Israelis. That the Israeli track record stands, you know, it speaks for itself.

[00:10:56]But the Americans, you know, we don't we like to think as Americans, well, we're trustworthy. We're a good country. We fight for liberty and freedom around the world. We we help people, you know, that's what we like to think about ourselves. So, we think we're trustworthy, but we're not. Our government is not.

[00:11:11]>> I um I'll tell you what I think. I'd love to get your thoughts, Karen. I think that Trump he meant it when he told Israel, "Look, I need you to cease fire." He told them that. Um, but Nataniel was in a position where um, uh, hold on. [snorts] I'm just gonna have the, uh, producer just mute mute your mic when I'm speaking, then unmute just for the, uh, for the echo.

[00:11:36]>> Oh, sorry.

[00:11:36]>> So, I think what he did is he told Netanyahu to ceasefire. Netanyahu resisted. They had an argument, I'm sure, and that's why JD Vance went on his podcast tour and Trump did the same thing. And they said some pretty crazy things from Iran cares about their people. The Iranian government cares about their people. Israel needs to stop destroying buildings every time a drone is down. Like all these things that we say on the show, but they started saying it for us. Um, and I think that pressure was real. And then we saw that didn't work cuz Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival. Netanyahu is in a position where okay, I need Trump to politically survive, but I also can't stop the war on Hezbollah. And then you see Trump's approval rating collapse in Israel from 58 68% to I think 35 or whatever it is drop by like 40%.

[00:12:21]So now you've got the Tanya who looks like all right wow Trump is not popular in Israel anymore. I would benefit from not listening to Trump. I should probably not listen to him and not not and keep finding in Lebanon that would be politically better for me. Um so he's doing that calculation and then Trump is like all right that doesn't work. Let me up the pressure. And he went and opened lines of communication with the opposition leaders. And I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of coordination between Trump and the Americans and the Iranians. The Iranians would be like look we need the Israelis to stop. we're going to close the straight to Hammuz. And that even put more pressure on Israel and Trump opened lines of communication with the opposition leader, maybe made some threats behind the scenes where yesterday Netanyahu would have probably said to him, you know what, I'm going to abide by the ceasefire, but I just need one more day to capture that hill. Give me a day. And then yesterday there's a video, I played it on the show earlier today and yesterday of like heavy artillery fire, heavy boom, and just the whole hill lighting up. was a massive hill, mountain hill, whatever that they were trying to capture. It's an Israeli Hezbollah stronghold next to Nabat and they tried to encircle it as well. It seems to have failed. Hisbala maintained their positions there. The Israelis were still trying to capture it today. Heavy bombing and then Iran is like, "Hey, you know, enough is enough." They closed the straight home. Trump is like, "Look, yeah, I know you said yesterday you do it. I gave you one extra day. Enough is freaking enough." And Netanyahu stopped.

[00:13:39]I think we might have I think what happened behind the scenes is a genuine power struggle and it seems that at least on the outside for me and it's really easy to interpret it in different ways but for me I just see that the leverage is with Trump and he he just proved it. Now the big question is for how long this is like the sixth ceasefire since the main ceasefire so so I don't know what happens next. That one is up in the air and I wouldn't be surprised if they start striking Lebanon again in a few weeks in a few months when Trump is is bored.

[00:14:14]>> Yeah. Um no, I mean I think I think that theory is is is really right on. I mean it makes sense. It makes sense um how Trump thinks and also the situation that Netanyahu is in and you know Trump would definitely speak to the opposition. You know Trump is a uh uh you know he there are no rules. There's no loyalty with Trump. You know he's transactional. if he needs to do something, he will do it.

[00:14:37]The the problem is Napali Bennett and his crowd, his supporters or or his alliance um aren't really very much into uh bombing Lebanon. You know, they're going to do the same thing, but as a tool to pressure Netanyahu, it makes >> I just getting reports I'm just getting reports there's bombardment right now on that same hill, I think.

[00:15:01]>> Well, that's chaotic then. That's >> in Lebanon. Yeah. so much African ceasefire. So >> yeah, Israel will do what it wants, what it feels like it has to do. Um, you know, I I liked what Vance said. I I don't know if you you probably showed this, you know, when he was on his uh bash Israel moment, which I don't know if it will last. I mean, it seemed like it came from nowhere almost. He was talking like one of your guests really.

[00:15:23]He was talking like you, you know, uh being very, I think, reality based. And uh but he said, you know, if you're going to if every if if you cannot kill your way into security, you can't kill your way into peace. And it's almost like, you know, one of you guys going to learn that what you're doing is the problem. You know, you've got to do something different. But it's one thing for Americans to say that or for for Vance to say that to look like he's the bad cop to Trump's good cop or something. But um it's it it's very difficult for a population that is indoctrinated as the Israelis are uh you know I mean so much of what goes on in that society is appalling and yet I mean for Americans it would be appalling to celebrate the murder of children you know that kill a pregnant woman get two for one you know >> oh my god yeah that is [ __ ] that is sick >> that's right but we it's sick for most societies but in Israel It's been perverted into this is a positive for uh Zionists. It's a positive for our Jewish Israeli citizens. If we do this, this this preserves our majority. Uh this asserts our superiority and so to them it makes sense. And even if it doesn't make sense deep down inside, it is the um it it makes sense to the society, you know, the society. This is um this is what I think that the hill I'll tell you when to play it. Just pause it for a second. Lisa, I'll pause it. And then this is the hill that they were trying to capture yesterday. They were bombarding it. And I think Israel wants to capture that hill strategically.

[00:16:59]Extremely important. They want to capture that hill before abiding by the ceasefire. The Iranians are trying to stop them and have them abide to the ceasefire before capturing that hill. Um so I think this is what's happening.

[00:17:10]This bombardment was last night and apparently according to report from a few minutes ago, they're bombing it.

[00:17:15]Bombing it now again. But Lisa, if you can play it with the audio.

[00:17:38]So that was last night and I'll show it's not that massive of a hill like they're bombing. Lisa, if you can show the image I've just sent you as well, but it's not it's a pretty small location considering the amount of firepower. So I don't know how deep Hezbollah has dug in. Um but um and this in that image I'm going to show you shows you they're going to they were trying to encircle it yesterday. They might still be trying to encircle it. I don't know.

[00:18:00]>> But um what's funny is I told someone about the ceasefire, someone that doesn't follow politics at all. I'm like, "Hey, congratulations. there's a ceasefire in Lebanon. And the first thing they told me, they're like, "Oh, cool. Yay. How long will it last?" I'm like, >> "Good question."

[00:18:14]>> That's even people that don't follow don't even follow politics. So, that's the hill vacancy. They're trying to encircle it, but it's just not that big of a hill. Um, there's another image that actually shows the hill itself. Let me see if I can find it. Um, I think this one, this is it, Lisa here. Try to show that one, too. But um yeah, Karen, I your thoughts, your thoughts on is do you think this is Israel just trying to get one last win before abiding to this ceasefire or has Netanyahu calculated that the political cost of standing up to Trump um is outweighed by the sorry outweighs the political cost of continuing the war.

[00:18:51]>> Yeah, I might have worded it wrong, but like hey, do I suffer more politically by listening to Trump or continuing the war? Yeah, I think I think he's definitely making that calculation and I think continuing the war is how he uh looks stronger and more uh you know as the better candidate for the various coalitions to get behind as opposed to uh uh Natali Bennett or some of his other challenges if he has any major ones. But you know um the the idea that they must take this particular piece of property this small hill it has some strategic value.

[00:19:24]>> This is it by the way that's the hill here.

[00:19:26]>> Yeah. So I imagine it has more um uh political value than it does strategic value because first off it's very difficult to take it'll be hard to hold it even if they establish themselves.

[00:19:37]Plus the the actual memo you the first paragraph is talking about withdrawing.

[00:19:44]Israel has to withdraw to its borders.

[00:19:47]Um and if Israel is withdrawing from its borders then they're going to give up this hill that they died on to capture even if they do capture it. So that shows their intention is not to withdraw to their borders. So it it really um it is a political move by Netanyahu. this has a value because you know what his his his uh stump speech now his uh claim to fame for why he should be reelected or maintained is because he has increased Israel's security by taking 70% of Gaza by um taking going into Syria and taking the Golan and also other villages on the the east of that and this Lebanon up to the Latani River.

[00:20:28]These are things that are part of a a mythology that not just greater Israel, but this is like we have to have these things to be secure in Israel. And then Netanyahu is saying, "Hey, I'm your prime minister. I always fight for Israel. I always make Israel more secure. And look what I did. And oh, by the way, we got the Americans to beat up on Iran also. So, we've done all these things under my watch. Isn't it great?"

[00:20:50]And I see that as this hill because it's a very costly uh military thing. They've lost is, you know, the IDF has been hurt. uh trying to do some things not just this but other things in in South Lebanon and also theou requires not just sessation of hostilities it requires Israel to return to its borders and they well they don't call them borders but to return to where they were before this started so so if that's the case this shows no intent at all to uh to abide by the the the spirit of theou and and really no intent to abide by the letter.

[00:21:28]So, and and I I I just think they're, you know, the camel's nose is under the tent and they are not going anywhere.

[00:21:36]They will >> the camel's the camel's nose is under the tent. That's the first one for me.

[00:21:40]>> Well, no, that's Oh, you know, the you'd never let if the camel's nose comes under the tent, pretty soon the whole camel's in the tent. That's the [laughter] And it's actually I've heard that growing up. It's it's a an idiom or whatever for it comes from where they have camels, which I assume is uh you know, North Africa and the Middle East.

[00:22:00]But anyway, um it doesn't look like Israel has any public intent to abide by theou. They're going to do what they have to do. Um and part of that is the political pressures that Netanyahu is under right now because there is, I assume, going to be transition election this early fall, right? I don't know if they've named the date of the election, but but clearly um the people the voice of the people of Israel and who they want their prime minister to be is going to be heard and the parties the party allocation of power will will shift in the Knesset. So um that's >> yeah the majority the majority of Israelis don't want Netanyahu to run. I think only 30 something% want him to run. Over 50% do not want him to run again. But as you've as you've said, the opposition is not really those pacifists that want war to end. They support the war in Iran. They support the war in Lebanon. They support what's happened in Gaza. But I would say the difference and the advantage is that those opposition leaders do not need the war politically.

[00:23:02]Netanyahu needs it politically to avoid going to jail. That's a really big problem. the others might have the same mindset, but they could be more pragmatic because they don't have the that uh the the the misaligned incentive of wanting war for personal gain that that applies to Netanyahu. So that's why I'm a bit more hopeful even with those other crazies that are running against him. Um but to give you kind of a quick update so the ceasefire was announced by Yidio channel 12 and one more publication I can't remember which one it was that there was a ceasefire that all that Netanyahu cuts have ordered the IDF to seize all combat operations in Lebanon which I think they will I still think they will but we'll see Iran's foreign minister right after that announcement he got on his plane to go to Zurich to Switzerland for the talks um that all comes after Iran closed the straight of Homo and they announced the closure by citing US violations of the MOU and Israel's continued ceasefire violations and killings in southern Lebanon plus failure to withdraw from South Lebanon. And some sources in Iran are saying now Iran is demanding immediate withdrawal from South Lebanon, not no longer later in the negotiations or is phase two, which is a really interesting take. Also, Trump did put out a post today. No one's talking about it. He retweeted an article that says Trump holds the cards in Netanyahu's shaky re-election. Is Trump playing cop koi or genuinely weighing his options?

[00:24:22]President President's defiance or president defiance or attempts to sabotage the deal seen as seen by Trump as key to ending the war blah blah blah blah. So essentially he talks about how Trump has all the cards is looking at all his options to really undermine Netanyahu and his election his odds election odds. So that literally Trump retweeted an article saying that.

[00:24:44]>> So yeah, you saw it.

[00:24:47]that. So, >> no, I didn't see it. But it's interesting, you know, I I'll tell you, you know, when Trump walked into the G7 meeting, you know, he walked in, everybody else is seated. He goes, "I'm the boss. I'm the boss." Now, if you're really the boss, you don't have to tell people you're the boss. They all they all know who you are. And you don't have to say it. In fact, you don't want to say it. It's not It's not the same as having all the cards, right? That's actually showing you don't have all the cards. But anyway, that's his attitude.

[00:25:11]He likes being the boss. He likes being top dog. and he's got I I'm pretty sure after 18 months of this, including this war on Iran that has been so so expensive and and uh really just in so many ways costly not just to the United States but to the world. He's done this.

[00:25:30]I think that he feels his debt to Marian Aden and his other major Zionist donors and his debt to Netanyahu. I think he thinks, you know, dude, uh I did this. I did this for you. Uh you know, I did it for you. I love you, man, but we're done now. We're finished. Um, I've got other things I've got to do. I've got two and a half years left to do them. Uh, I'm he, you know, Trump has a a grand scheme of of projects. You know, he's bored easily. He wants to do some new things.

[00:25:56]And I think he's ready to uh throw Netanyahu under the bus. He has thrown so many other people under the bus that he likes far more than he likes Netanyahu. And also, you know, Trump does not forget sllights. He's the kind of person and and there are people like that. You know, there are some people that just they don't care. It's no big deal. Trump is not one of those people.

[00:26:16]He remembers slight if you've slighted him. I mean, you could slight him 20 years ago and he would remember it. He's just like that. He holds on to his grudges. And um Netanyahu uh early on in that first year of the second term, you know, Netanyahu uh Trump is got the image of him holding the chair for Netanyahu and all of these various Lego um videos which show Trump as Netanyahu's puppet. Uh that does not escape Trump's notice. Um he is uh he wants to be the one who makes everybody else look subservient. He wants to want he wants to be the one with the power.

[00:26:53]And I think uh uh yeah, he's he will throw Netanyahu under the bus if he needs to or or you know last year he was urging the president of Israel to pardon in advance Netanyahu kind of like Fouchi got pardoned. Remember how Fouchi got the Biden pardon? It was like for any crimes you might have committed in any future whatever it was crazy. But this idea that um a pardon is a nice way out uh politically because you won't go to jail after you leave the prime minister's office. You you would be pardoned. Um you know there's it's very likely that some some deal like that will happen and especially if he's talking to Naftali Bennett because Naftali Bennett while he's a hardliner he does understand Israel needs to regroup and reset. I mean their economy sucks. Their public persona is in the toilet. So, there's some things Israel can do in a non-war environment if they're friends with Trump, if Trump will continue flowing aid. So, I'm sure that Nali Bennett is like, "Hey, Trump, you know, uh, if we don't have a divisive election, if we can get Netanyahu to step down or whatever, and we can look unified or we can be more politically unified in Israel behind my administration, then I will I will spend time being a better boy. I will spend time you know obeying you more obese obsequiously and um for a little while for a little while you know because also Niftali Bennett's the same guy that said right into the camera speaking English to the western audience I will be Iran's worst enemy I can't wait to get in charge because I will be Iran's worst enemy. So this whole obsession with uh with Iran it's a problem but the real problem of course is israel itself. It is a really honestly a a dysfunctional state that can't survive without constant war. And that constant war is killing it. I mean, it's killing the youth. It's destroying the economy. It's making people not want to stay there.

[00:28:49]It's driving away the diaspora. It's just not it's it's hurting >> the idea of Israel so much that uh >> they really do need to to stop and regroup and rethink how they want to be.

[00:29:01]I think Iran has been um throughout the entire war they've been extremely strategic and one thing they've been trying to do is first paint Trump as Netanyahu's [ __ ] because that would really upset Trump and that could lead to a split between them and they did that with all the Lego videos and then they also tried to or they've been trying to cause a split between the two countries and they're doing it right now cuz as they close the trade of homes the foreign minister said the spokesperson for the foreign minister said that um the Iranian delegation will travel to Switzerland today to follow up on and to follow up and demand the implementation of the other side's commitments in the MOU. So for the Iranians to go and meet the Americans while also closing the shadow of hummus to punish the world for what Israel is doing, it's it's almost like they Israel is trying to trap them into breaching the ceasefire. Israel is like trying to get get it put in a trap for Iran to strike them to do something to escalate militarily and then Israel responds and then we're back to warfare.

[00:29:59]But Iran is like a step ahead in a way saying we're not going to fall into that trap. Instead, we're going to do the exact opposite of what you want. Want to go cause a split between you and the Americans and get closer to the Americas. It almost feels like if you look at the statements by Vance and Trump, it's almost like the the Iranians and the Americans are are working together to undermine the Israelis. I know it's not the case obviously, but it just almost feels like it. Um, and yeah, it's closing to Shermuz, but going to meet the American delegation. Cuz if they didn't go meet the American delegation, that is giving Israel what it wants to sabotage the peace. The Iranians are like, "No, screw you. We're going to punish you, but we're going to keep the peace negotiations going because we're not going to let you sabotage them." So, it's um very strategic. I think >> really is. And it's a uh so many of these things are being done at a not even a political level, they're being done at a psychological level, like you said, with how they're playing, how they're reading Trump, understanding what Trump needs and wants. Um kind of they have a a full picture and you know, the Iranians also understand Israel very well. I mean, they, you know, for they've studied Israel as much as they've studied, you know, us in this whole 47 years of conflict or whatever.

[00:31:11]And uh yeah they they really are going about this exactly the right way and it is clear that whether this particular attack or the the objective you know of taking this hill that they must have before they pull back or something or just in general you know there Israelis have really uh tried to go the Iranians into violations and and even anything like that's an act of anger which is kind of interesting because Iran has far more reason to be angry than Israel.

[00:31:41]does um but you know they they want to show Iran as reactionary emotional you know kind of filling in kind of fitting with the narrative. Um but I think another aspect of this war that because it lasted 40 days plus the long period of u you know ceasefire violations or whatever you know we've studied we've had it in the news Americans in the world have really become introduced again to modern Iran and what we're seeing is they're led by people that are uh you know speak three languages you know they're led by people that have a great deal military experience from many war with Iran and other things. War with Iraq rather and but they also have academic experience. They are global citizens. They're very sophisticated. Um and they have a kind of uh uh principled morality that you know I'm sure people say, "Oh, Muslim whatever. Oh, we don't like Muslims, you know, half the Americans. Oh, Muslims. We can have Muslims in our country." Um certainly Israel promotes the the Muslim stere a Muslim stereotype that is very wrong.

[00:32:51]But what the whole world is seeing is actually you know uh Iranians are uh quite our equals in terms of diplomacy.

[00:32:59]They're quite our equals in terms of military strategy. They are quite our equals in terms of being global players.

[00:33:05]They have very important friends that and relationships that you know their relationship with China is better than the United States relationship with China even though we are a massive consumer of Chinese products and in actually you know we're we're codependent on China but the Iranian relationship with China is is extremely good. The Iranian relationship with Russia is uh far more based on trust and respect than our relationship with Russia. you know, even though Trump goes, I get along great with Putin.

[00:33:36]Putin Putin loves me. You know, but so I think we're we're the whole world is seeing that Iran is a country worthy of respect and that the old stereotypes that were marketed by Israel constantly and still are. And those marketed by the neocons in the United States, nobody wants them anymore. They're stale.

[00:33:56]They're outdated. They don't work.

[00:33:57]They're not real. That's not what I saw because I'm listening. And then you've got the other side with all the media, the the Lego stuff, you know, they're very sophisticated. They're the psychologically um uh cons they're very consumer oriented. You know, who doesn't watch want to watch a funny Lego video?

[00:34:14]And if you learn something in the process, you know, my god, why aren't we doing that? I mean, and honestly, didn't I think somebody in the White House said, "How come we can't produce Lego videos like that to show our side?" But we can't. We can't. We don't have >> Yeah. the information warfare. They were really really good at it. Not really only good from an entertainment perspective, from a strategic perspective as I said earlier earlier today to cause that split or that to amplify not portray but to amplify the image of the US being subservient to Israel. And they kept saying Israel's war, the Zionist war cuz I from the beginning they were saying this is Israel's war, Israel's getting the US into the war. Even though that obviously there's truth to that, but I think there's American interests as well into starting this war. But the Iranians didn't didn't say, "Oh, the it's the Americans. It's Trump's fault. He made the decision or the Americans made the decision." They're like, "No, Israel tricked you. Israel forced you, etc. Israel, Israel, Israel, Israel." Because I think strategically the best thing they could do is cause that split without Israel. I remember asking a former IDF member. I said, "Do you think Israel would attack, would get into a war with Iran directly without American support?" He sat there, gave it some thought, and he said, "I don't think so." Um, so if if Iran is able to get that American support away from Israel, number one, Israel would become less hostile because it doesn't have that level of security. And number two, the US would have a lot less to do in the Middle East because they don't they shouldn't care about the Middle East as much as they do. So as long as it's the US focusing on American interests, it does it, you know, two birds two two birds with one stone.

[00:35:44]The US moves away from the Middle East, Israel calms the hell down. So Iran would have um it would have been yeah pretty pretty effective victory if if they're able to achieve this but they seem to be having a lot of progress.

[00:35:57]>> Yeah. No, I mean it's it's absolutely the um I think people will be studying uh how this thing played out uh from a uh you know looking at all sides and all the factors and uh that's what they're going to one of the conclusions is going to be this was done extremely wisely on the part of Iran. you know, they pinpointed the the uh real core strength or or weakness, I guess you could say, but they pinpointed it. They knew what it was. It's that US-Israeli relationship, that lockstep political thing that goes on. And they said and they read the tea leaves. They looked at, you know, Americans are tired of Gaza. Gaza has reduced the popularity of Israel and and Zionism in particular.

[00:36:39]And uh Trump is uh is vulnerable to this because he took so much APEC and Israeli money. you know, he's been he's the first Israeli what I think he said he was the first Jewish president or someone Netanyahu said he was or somebody said he was and he said yes yes yes I >> Miriam add I think no I think Mark Levin said it I think this is the Israel's first America's first Israeli prime minister something like this the first Israeli president who's America who's American president who's Israel's prime minister something along those lines and Trump was proud about it >> yes he was proud about it but that was that was last year and things have changed a little bit Trump is um uh you know he hit the road running with this second term. He had a zillion things he wanted to do and he did so many of them so fast. I'm sure the Iran uh this was probably part of it. He had some agenda that he agreed with. It wasn't just because Netanyahu said you please do it.

[00:37:28]You know, there was there's more to that. But now he's done it. Um the world power dynamic has shifted and changed permanently, I think, or at least for the foreseeable future. Um the empire is contracting and we're coming back home into our hemisphere. Trump wants to do that. The Donro doctrine is, you know, they keep bringing that stupid Don RH doctrine, which I I just from a linguistic perspective, I can't stand it. You know, if if it's the Trump doctrine, call it the Trump do. Don't don't pervert the Monroe doctrine and put Donnie in in the middle of it. That just makes no sense to me. But whatever.

[00:38:01]Anyway, he's they're talking about that still. And I think that will be how Trump will um I think it's on his list.

[00:38:07]He wants to be a strong America, even if it's not a global America. And uh Israel has had its usefulness, but it if it becomes too big of a problem, if Netanyahu becomes too big of a problem and Trump holds a grudge specifically with Netanyahu, um then you know Trump will let it all go and that will be great. And the way Iran read that, the way Iran uh found, you know, dealt with the real issues of this war, which was not military strength, it wasn't logistics on our part, you know, the fact that we can't invade. It was this relationship which was there were points of vulnerability. It's unpopular in America now. It never was before but now it is. So there's there's a hook. Um Trump is very vain, narcissistic.

[00:38:50]Doesn't like to be insulted. Doesn't like to be put down. Holds a grudge.

[00:38:54]Perfect. And they took advantage of all that which is excellent for uh I mean it's smart. I don't who cares if it's good for us. It was good for Israel. It was smart for I mean good for Iran. It was smart for Iran to do this and to work it this way because they are prevailing. Um but it's also actually a blessing for the United States because we are now talking about as a nation uh even the Congress which is all bought and paid for by APEC and that's fine.

[00:39:18]They are talking about this issue how valuable and how important is um Israel to the United States of America. Should we integrate it into our military? Yes or no? Um and the answer is increasingly no. So, we never had this conversation because this idea, you know, we're talking about these uh the NDAA and the the various sections. There's five different sections. Two 224 is one. But, you know, integrating and bonding and fusing the IDF with the Pentagon. And we go, "Oh my god, that's terrible. Why would we do that?" No, no. Wake up, people. Is already fused. It's already been bonded. Okay. This is this is basically the paper they mail you after you file the deed, you know, and later they say, "Oh, your deed's been filed."

[00:40:01]You know, we we have already integrated and we did it silently and quietly and people are starting to oppose it. They're talking about it and so as they try to finish this, we may be able to stop it or even reverse it. Um, but anyway, it's a national discussion item, which it would have never been last year even, it wouldn't have been this discussion item.

[00:40:21]And this is crazy because from my perspective and many people here, they'll go they'll run through the wars that we have done in the last 30 years.

[00:40:28]Iraq, um, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, you know, you name it. We have done these because Israel needed that done. It was good for Israel and we've saw some benefit in doing that. And um we didn't only the fringe questioned this. But now now we're at a point where we're asking a good question in this country. It's a domestic issue really. Uh what should our relationship with Israel be? And Iran is helping us. They're actually helping us. We should write them a thank you letter. Americans should say thank you um you know name your name your negotiator uh for doing this because this is allowing us to assert our own sovereignty which is I think uh the word of the year is sovereignty I think I mean between between Russia Iran everybody even even Israel we we have our own sovereignty that's why we can't listen to America but um but American sovereignty is really important and I think we're talking about it more in because of what's happened this spring and That's >> I think the the Israeli strategy right now, they're far from having given up.

[00:41:35]They've got the a lot of influence over the Congress and that's just not going to disappear overnight. So I think what their strategy would be is to they've given up on breaching this MLU this MOU's reality. They're not going to drag Trump into a war again now. But I think what they're going to do is wait for the midterms because they know Trump can't do anything with Iran before the midterms. Once the midterms are done, knowing Trump won't run again, then they would pressure Trump again. they will pressure him through Congress, they will pressure him directly, they will pressure him through different uh donors etc. um to do something either delay the MOU, sabotage the MOU, just make sure nothing more than just thisou is signed at least nothing more signed other than thisou. So by the time there's a new administration they do similar to what they did with the JCPOA in 2015 they were able to get the JCPOA an agreement that took two years to finalize and sign to throw it all away. this MOU should be easier for them to throw away. The only difference right now is the sentiment.

[00:42:32]People view Israel and American Israeli relations very differently now to what they did back in 2015. So that is one big hurdle where Israel's strategy of patience may not apply, may not work as well this time around.

[00:42:46]>> Yeah. Yeah. Um definitely that would be Israel's strategy is to just uh do what they got to do now and get away with as much as they can now and if they have to wait a bit and take this up from multiple uh uh battlefields obviously the political battlefield in Washington and that where they have huge advantages like you said they they do you know they have the power to to get their way but there are some things that could blow this up this this is the past this is also how they've operated in the past right Israel never gives up territory that they have. They never back away from it. They always fight. Greater Israel is a thing. Maybe not everybody in Israel agrees with it, but the government likes the concept of a greater Israel. They want bases in Somali land. They want to expand to other parts of the Mediterranean. They want agreements with, you know, they want to be a major player in the region.

[00:43:38]Um, I don't think they can afford to do that all by themselves. I think they need our money and our our military and and our political power to do some of that. So, but I think they're going to continue like they have always. This is their habit. I see no new thinking in Israel other than old thinking. I think the same thing they've done before, they'll do it again. But there is another problem that uh and it's not even a black swan problem. This country is going broke. America is going broke.

[00:44:03]We are not in good shape. Um the baby boomers are dying off.

[00:44:08]um that's not that is not helping Israel because that's where their core of support in this country lie. And it's not just about Israel. It's about any country that um wants something from us.

[00:44:19]You know, uh you know, the Americans aren't fighting to keep NATO funded. You know, Trump's like, "Oh, I'm fussing with NATO." Most people don't pay attention with to that. But Americans aren't mobilizing saying, "Oh, we have to keep NATO." We don't like NATO. We don't like NATO any more than uh you know, Russia likes NATO for that matter.

[00:44:36]I mean, Americans don't have this uh strong connection and we're saying, "Oh, we have to do this." We are we may be in this country, in addition to our empire collapsing and retracting, we may be moving into a more and I hate to use the word isolationist phase because it's not isolationism, but we may be moving into a a phase that you could call America first, but we would never dare call it America first, but it's something like looking inward. Um, you know, there is too much news about how uh great health care is in China and how beautiful the cities are in in Russia and uh pick your country. Why do they not have potholes and we have nothing but potholes? You know, why do we have millions of people on the street shooting drugs up? You know, I mean, why? and this kind of inwardlooking trend line. I think as the boomers who grew up in Empire rising, that was what they embraced and knew as they die off uh figuratively and literally. Um the younger people their thing that their experiences, their lived experiences is our country isn't as good as it should be inside. Our education system is is terrible. our uh industrial capacity is is limited. Our oligarchs run everything. You know, we have oligarchs in the United States. It's not I mean, we we like to pick on the Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs. Uh we have our own and they are well known to the American people and they're not loved. They're not loved. So, I think uh we ourselves as a country are going to have some things that change and that's going to kind of spin Israel off into its own thing. And I think they predict this. I think they know this and I think that's why they are working really hard to uh conduct uh to establish agreements with Greece and cree and uh Somali land and other countries in the region Morocco, you know, they really do want to uh be a more self-sufficient regional empire and that's their problem. Can they do it without our help? Um maybe yes, maybe no, but it won't be our problem. So, I think uh I think that's what's coming and that'll be a good thing. That'll be a new era for our country. It will be a very difficult era for our country too because we're broke. So when you're broke and you have everything that's that you need to fix, you have no money.

[00:46:55]Um your people aren't well educated.

[00:46:58]They've they're you know and we have we have more poor people per capita in our country than China does. China just moved ahead of us in terms of per capita uh povert people living.

[00:47:08]>> Oh wow.

[00:47:09]>> Yeah. Just just I think it was two weeks ago. And so the they do it through calculation of what what is the poverty line established I guess purchasing power whatever in those in those countries and the percentage of people and of course you got China with two billion people so that's a whole lot of people they've raised up out of poverty and here in America we are we have more and more people living in poverty so yeah we're behind China well this is hard to swallow and this is this is a wakeup call to a lot of people and they're tired of war you can't recruit people to go into the military. And why would you? I'll tell you what, I've said this from the beginning. When those guys that have been on these carriers and other people deployed in this Iran war come home and start sharing the news with their local papers and talking to their wives and girlfriends and husbands and cousins, uh the the picture of US empire is going to be extremely ugly, extremely ugly, extremely unsatisfying.

[00:48:06]And it will not inspire uh support for a lot of relationships, a lot of yeah, we're the boss and these are our little friends. we're going to say, "Why don't we just take care of this country?"

[00:48:17]That's coming. I I I believe that's coming. And um you know, it's it's inevitable, but I think it's been accelerated by Trump going into Iran uh unprepared to win, right? Because he didn't know what he never defined what winning was. So there's no way we could have ever won. There's no strategy. But you know, the the Iranians have come out of this not just to their benefit in many ways. But the whole world sees Iranians for who they are. They are a sophisticated, powerful country that has its, you know, that's runs itself pretty well and actually did extremely well against the world's quote unquote superpower. Um, and they have very powerful friends. And you know, who doesn't want to have powerful friends?

[00:49:00]Who are our powerful friends? [laughter] Israel. Even even um even Trump himself said when he says that the Iranian government cares for their people, they're a good government. Whatever he said, it just breaks that taboo around Iran or or just breaks that image that has been created by the West about the Iranian government. I'm not saying which one's right, which one's not. I don't like what they did in January, etc. We're not dismissing that. But it's like when you really want to when you want to when the US or any country really wants to target another country, you have to paint them in a certain way. They start using the words like regime and I use the word and I still do sometimes calling them regime or terrorist organization. The IGC are terrorists. I had a debate with one of my guests. He's telling me to do you Mar do you think the IOGC are terrorists? Would you call them a terrorist? Your country Australia labels them as a terrorist organization.

[00:49:48]Would you label as a terrorist organization? It's like when you start using words like this, the goal is to >> yeah paint them in a certain way to justify military action to justify a certain a certain policy approach. By the way, just want to clarify an important point.

[00:50:03]So, while we were speaking earlier, I said there's new bombardment. I haven't seen any other sources in it. So, I think this is the reporting of the previous bombardment again. So, it seems that for two hours now, more than two hours, I'd say yeah, over 3 hours now, uh we've been there's been no records, no recorded Israeli strikes or artillery shelling whatsoever or reports of Israel advancing. So we may have an actual ceasefire right now in Lebanon on that front. Took took a few weeks uh since the well how long has it been since the MOU? Two weeks or less one week two weeks but it's let's say it's been 10 days um took a few days to get a ceasefire in Lebanon. But um as always late the ceasefire last time for Israel to abide partially by the ceasefire to stop striking Beirut. It took him about a week just under a week and they had to like bomb hard before stopping. We saw the same thing now. So, we may have a period of calm. Um, you know, Lebanon needs it for them to rebuild. But now, the the next sticking point will be Israel pulling out. That's one of the requirements that Iran has. So, we'll see. And I'm sure there's going to be um a lot of resistance from Netanyahu because that will be a massive embarrassment if he pulls out because Iran requested it. He's screwed in the next elections.

[00:51:19]>> Yeah. No, that's true. you know, uh, the Israeli different parliament members, I guess, or Knesset members have said, uh, no way. And the military, the IDF has said, "No way. You're coming back." So, all you people in south south of the Latani River that have fled or whatever, you cannot come back. We are, we have obliterated your homes, your villages, they do not exist. That is a security zone. Do not enter it. So, they've already said, "We've stolen your land and destroyed all your property. Um, and don't come back." So that in itself is a statement in cont in contradiction of theou because theou said back to before back to the >> exactly exactly >> good point >> and and that's going to be that's going to be very difficult to do. Um and you know Lebanon is a strange case in many ways too because you have Hezbollah kind of as a military defender and terrorist you know I mean obviously they're not the legitimate army. Then you have the legitimate army which is not seen as wholly legitimate by the people, you know, because it doesn't really protect um like you would like to think that an army would do. Of course, it it can't really. I mean, it's up against, you know, the IDF, which is, you know, there's all kinds of it's very complicated. But, um I do think that Israel may may actually be forced to pay reparations or something to if they're not going to let them back into their wild. Well, I mean, you know, if if uh that may be something that comes up in theou if if Israel if the US says we've got Israel to stop fighting, we withdrew them back, but there's still the uh uh you know, a mile inward of the previous border where they've obliterated everything and they don't want to leave.

[00:53:02]They want that as a no-fire zone or something. Um then then it would be wholly legitimate in theou to to to go ahead and say, "Well, we want reparations." Um, and also I don't see why they wouldn't want reparations for some of the historical sites, you know, some of these UN historical sites and ancient churches in South Lebanon that have been uh damaged or or destroyed by this latest round of Israeli attacks.

[00:53:28]That seems to be something that you know you know the very last part of theou says that once it's all organized and agreed to we want a UN security council resolution that confirms it and turns it into a world's agreement. Um, >> yeah.

[00:53:45]>> You know, if that happens, uh, I mean, that could be happening. That could I mean, is Israel better start planning right now for how they want to cope with all this because if this thing really goes forward to its projected end and becomes an agreement, uh, life in Israel, >> it changes it changes the entire region.

[00:54:06]It changes and how Israel should approach it.

[00:54:08]>> It does. And and if if Israel ever paid reparations for any of the damage that they've done or or even if another country paid on behalf of Israel or whatever, I mean, whatever. Um that would be a first, right? I mean, I don't think they've ever acknowledged that everything that they do is defense of Israel. We had to kill all the Gazins and destroy um the whole p, you know, the whole strip because of defense of Israel. So if you know, why would we pay for that, right? And um but in fact, the whole world doesn't see it that way. And most most people don't see it that way.

[00:54:40]So yeah, if power continues to shift, uh we could see and you know, I hate to say this, I'm not Israeli. I I know that they don't want to be told what to do.

[00:54:48]They they they have their belief systems, but they will be better off without fighting constantly, right? I mean, IDF will be better off if you don't have to rotate soldiers in five and six times to get, you know, toward you have to make them stay much longer than their their normal two or threeyear term. Um, Israel will be better with less fighting. They the country will feel safer with less fighting. You know, I I don't uh I think if we could give peace a chance, this sounds so corny, but if you could give peace in Israel a chance, they might actually like it. Um, it could it could prove popular >> once they see Exactly. Once they see if they change their foreign policy, how the rest of the region reacts, they'll be like, "Oh, wow.

[00:55:29]>> They don't want our destruction. They just don't like our policies when it comes to Gaza, etc. That's why it takes two to tangle. I think if Israel starts conceding on some areas, I think countries that have been critical of Israel, especially Iran and their group should also reciprocate in kind. I think both sides will need to kind of tiptoe into a world with better relations. And just uh as we wrap up, the Israeli military has put out a statement. The Israeli military says it is continuing operations within its designated security zones in southern Lebanon, including a major Hezbollah tunnel complex where dozens of operatives are believed to be sheltering while suspending strikes elsewhere in the country. According to the IDF, it received directives from Israel Israel's political leadership uh to hellfire following extensive overnight and morning air strikes targeting Hezbollah positions in response to attacks on Israeli troops. The military says it will nevertheless continue efforts to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure inside the security zone, including the Ali Taher Ridge area and will lack against any immediate threats beyond it.

[00:56:29]This is the hill that we were talking about. They were bombing even though they haven't captured it yet. They included it in that security zone.

[00:56:36]Military officials say dozens of Hezbollah operatives remain inside the underground network with clashes taking place both above and below ground in recent days. The Alitah ridge was not originally part of the military's security zone. However, on Thursday, the IDF released an updated map of its forward defense area, expanding it to include the Ali Taher as well as the Majal Zun sector. So, they've expanded that security zone. They said, "Okay, we abide by ceasefire, but we will not abide we will continue operations within that ceasefire, which I assume is the destruction of that region to make it uninhabitable for not people not to be able to return and make it into a security zone." So this is a new reality of Lebanon.

[00:57:15]>> Yeah, that's that's unfortunate for Lebanon. And you know, like they're also, you say making it uninhabitable, obviously destroying all the buildings, getting all the people out, killing killing who doesn't leave, but they're also poisoning water and they're also poisoning the soil, you know, they're putting herbicide uh in in really extreme concentrations, you know, to totally make sure that nothing grows.

[00:57:38]You know, they're making it a dead zone.

[00:57:40]And um you know that's something you would watch in a movie you know like a futuristic dystopian movie. I say that but but you know Israel actually conducts war that way. And um that's not that's not uh >> you know they consciously do it. You it's not like oh we we fought a big war and then afterwards we realized we we had mines everywhere and had polluted it and destroyed the environment. This is conscious environmental destruction as a means of uh war and security as they define it. Um, ultimately that's going to have to be dealt with also. You know, the earth is I I'm not a I'm not an earth like tree hugger person or anything like that. I mean, I love trees, but you know, this this kind of behavior, it goes beyond genocide. It's it's um it's ecoside also. And that that is um that's something that we're going to have to talk more about. Not you and me. I think the world is going to have to figure out what's important because uh what Israel's doing is unsustainable.

[00:58:39]But good news, it's good news. I I like that uh it looks like something is happening. It's begrudgingly abiding by uh by this at least for three hours. At least for three hours.

[00:58:52]>> Um yeah, Karen, thank you for jumping on. Pleasure to speak to you again.

[00:58:57]>> Yes. Good to good to talk to you, Mario.

[00:58:58]We'll see you next time.

[00:58:59]>> Always a pleasure. Thank you, Karen. All right, guys. I'll be going live again in in two hours with Muhammad Alan. And then after that, we have David Lynn and Larry Johnson. So, I'll see you guys in a couple of hours. Bye.