Moscow feels price of war! This is how Putin will end up. Kremlin will start negotiations:here's why

[00:00:00]Putin knows this, he he has time until 20th of January of 29, and this is very risky time for him because he knows that if he ends this war, then probably he ends his political career, or maybe even his life. So, he is not going to end this war. He has to be forced to start to negotiate with Kiev. But, in order to force him to start to negotiate, you you you need to strike Moscow. There is no other way.

[00:00:38]>> Hello everyone, and welcome to YouTube channel War and Politics. My name is Sophia Troshchuk, and it's my pleasure to introduce our guest is Dr. Yuri Felshtinsky, a Russian-American historian. Dr. Felshtinsky, hello. Thank you for joining us, and nice to see you.

[00:00:51]>> Thank you for invitation. Thank you for your time.

[00:00:55]>> So, there are many topics I would like to discuss with you, but I will start with this one. During this spring and summer, the Ukrainian defense forces have increased long-range strikes on targets in Russia. We have previously talked about what could bring the end of the war closer, and you said if Moscow starts to feel such strikes from Ukrainian soldiers. In your opinion, is this already the stage when Moscow feels the price of war, or is it too early to talk about it?

[00:01:30]>> I think we are moving to to to the right direction and right objects, but we are not there yet.

[00:01:41]Moscow is very important.

[00:01:44]Moscow is the only city in the Russian Federation which is important. You have 14% approximately, well, 10 million percent of population living in Moscow, but 90% of everything or 95% of everything is concentrated in Moscow. And uh when you strike against oil refineries, is it's very useful. There are probably, let's say, 70 or 80 of them in the Russian Federation and probably you know, 30 at least were attacked by Ukrainian forces. Uh it's important to understand that sometimes you need more than one attack to destroy the refinery, but but this is this is the the right direction. But this is a very, you know, military or economic approach to limit Russia's uh ability to to produce gas, but gasoline, but um but Moscow is important politically and we've seen uh during these those events around 9th of May, when Putin was kind of getting permission and agreement from the from Zelensky to conduct military parade in Moscow.

[00:03:16]I mean, this was humiliated humiliating for Russia, but this is an indication how important this was for Russia.

[00:03:25]>> [gasps] >> Moscow is important. So, um nevertheless, I think that it's more important to strike against Moscow than to strike against oil refineries. Uh but for this, you need long-range missiles and Ukraine does not have them enough.

[00:03:44]They are just starting to produce them.

[00:03:47]Uh this may take some time and we see how Moscow is using this time to destroy Kyiv.

[00:03:55]And if we wait with strike strikes against Moscow for, you know, for very long, uh, then I I'm afraid Kyiv Kyiv might be, uh, destroyed by by the end of Trump's, uh, term in the White House, which is, uh, 20th of January 29.

[00:04:18]So, this period is very important because uh, Russia knows, Putin knows that that's when it ends because whoever will be the next president of the United States, uh, the, uh, obligations towards Putin will end. And with this, American policy will, uh, change even if, uh, Republicans are holding, uh, presidency.

[00:04:45]So, Putin knows this. He He has time until 20th of January of 29. And this is, uh, very risky time for him because he knows that if he ends this war, then probably he ends his, uh, political career or maybe even his, uh, life. So, he's not going to end this war. Uh, he has to be forced to start to negotiate with, uh, Kyiv. But, in order to force him to start to negotiate, uh, you you you need to strike, uh, Moscow.

[00:05:22]There is no other way. And we will come to this. We will come to this. Remember how since 22, we slowly were moving into the right direction, but very slowly, right? How Ukraine was receiving weapons from the West slowly, piece by piece. How they they received, uh, permissions to strike against the territory of the Russian Federation. This took several years. So, we are we are moving we are moving to the strikes to Moscow because there is no other way. I sincerely hope that that's where it ends. That's you know, as soon as Ukrainians start to hit Moscow, you know, then some some people in Moscow, let put it this way, would demand that Putin would end the war. And since Putin would never end this war, they probably would have to replace him.

[00:06:25]>> Um meanwhile, Crimea is in some energy crisis.

[00:06:30]I mean, there is no fuel, no tourists, but there are constant explosions.

[00:06:35]Politically, can Putin lose Crimea?

[00:06:40]>> Well, I I think Crimea is lost. You see, it's it's all started with Crimea, and it's still all started with this, you know, brilliant blitzkrieg, you know, literally the Crimea is taken in uh one day or in two days, or just one person is killed. I mean, this was from military point of view, well, also we have to know that or remember that Russia had military forces in in Crimea, and Ukrainians did not have although this was their territory, but they never had any any forces, while Russia had uh navy major navy base in Crimea, and of course the the whole army there. So, it's not surprising that Russia took Crimea very very quickly, but then from there the great support for this operation among Russian public appeared. And according to many polls, and I I'm sure that's how this was 86% of Russians support us the annexation of Crimea but but since then you know the war as we know now this war is the longest war in the history of the Russian Federation or Soviet Union it's longer than the Great Patriotic War so-called of the Soviet Union it's longer than the First World War and I I guess no no one is going to to visit Crimea for touristic purposes anymore because there are too too many talks about strikes of Ukrainians against installations in Crimea and it doesn't sound that you will have fun there if you go there as a tourist and that's precisely the point Russia is keeping Crimea but for Russians the Crimea is lost forever this is the same what happened to to the Chechen Republic Russia holds the Chechen Republic technically speaking or formally speaking but Russians would not be able to go there >> [gasps] >> because it's too dangerous for them so Crimea is lost and when sooner or later and this may not be sooner this might be later the Russian Federation the way we know it now will collapse Crimea will separate from the Russian Federation this may take some years or decades doesn't really important but for Russians Crimea is lost it's never going to be you know funny nice peaceful a beautiful territory where Russians could go and swim and have some fruits and vegetables and wine and rest. No, this this is over and from this point of view uh Crimea is lost.

[00:09:52]>> Um one topic you already mentioned at the G7 summit, Trump and Zelenskyy held a very brief meeting. The US president says he is currently focused on Ukraine and how do you assess the role of the United States in the negotiation track like for today?

[00:10:13]>> Well, I think the United States I think Trump is a lying number one. He doesn't really deal with Ukraine anymore and doesn't want to deal with Ukraine anymore and he's not capable to deal with Ukraine anymore.

[00:10:29]Uh number number two, he's not part of this process anymore.

[00:10:38]Uh he was unfortunately and I was arguing for for a long time said Ukrainians and Europeans are too polite towards Trump and they shouldn't be that they should openly state that Trump is supporting Putin in [snorts] Russian-Ukrainian issues related to war and said you know, Trump is not going to help Ukrainian Ukrainians and he's he is not he's not helping Ukraine. He's trying to help Putin. It doesn't work. He was trying to force Ukraine to capitulate during the entire 25 19 2025, right? The the whole year.

[00:11:24]He was forcing Ukraine to capitulate, but this did not work. And then he moved himself towards to deal with Iran and forgot about Ukraine. What What is actually very good. I think that's a great advantage for everybody that Americans are not going to be involved in Russian-Ukrainian issues because again they were involved on behalf of Putin. So now Putin lost major support major support which he had since January 20 20 five, right?

[00:12:06]So Putin is now alone and we we we could see it. We see that he lost initiative.

[00:12:16]We see that he is losing a lot of people.

[00:12:21]He doesn't really care about people.

[00:12:23]That's another problem, but at the same time he cannot really proceed.

[00:12:31]Nothing is Nothing good is happening to to him in Ukraine.

[00:12:38]So it doesn't doesn't mean that Ukrainians have power to to end this war or to defeat Russia. This is not This is not the same, but the positional war on the ground probably will not change dramatically in 2026 actually in probably 2027. So the changes which we are should expect to see will be somewhere else. So once again I think that they those changes will come if if Ukraine uh attacks Moscow, but if this continues the way it is now then Uh, that's what's going to happen until 20th of January 29. Well, precisely the same without any major changes with understanding that Russians are going to uh, slowly to to because they their power is limited as well to uh, destroy Kyiv.

[00:13:49]>> [snorts] >> Uh, actually in your opinion, why does Trump has still so-called pro-Russian position? Uh, actually he armed Ukraine in 2016.

[00:14:02]It was uh, not so big aid like from the US after full-scale invasion, but he did it. And for today we have like uh, president of the United States uh, who is playing a role of friend of Russian president, something like that.

[00:14:23]>> Well, uh, I would not say that Trump has pro-Russian position. I think he he doesn't care about Russians, he doesn't care about Russia.

[00:14:34]Uh, he has uh, obviously pro-Putin's position because uh, he considers Putin to be a very helpful person. Uh, this was the person who became president in 2000, of course, the same year when Trump announced that he plans to become president of the United States. This was in 2000.

[00:15:00]And since 2000, Putin actually was supporting him uh, financially first of all, but also very, you know, important help came during the first presidential campaign.

[00:15:16]So, I think it's fair to say that without Russian money and without Russia's assistance, uh Trump would not be able to win elections against Hillary Clinton, which were very close, as we know.

[00:15:34]And that's why Trump is helping Putin every time Putin needs this help. Uh he he tried to tried to help him uh with the prices for oil during his first presidency, when he artificially raised prices for oil, when Russia was in critical situation because prices for oil fell dramatically.

[00:16:07]Uh he helped, of course, Putin to try to force Ukraine to capitulate, but this and now he helps Putin again raising prices for oil through invasion or well, military attacks of Iran.

[00:16:26]But we have to understand one one more issue.

[00:16:33]Uh Russia is not Trump's friend.

[00:16:39]I am sure that that's not how Trump looks at Russia.

[00:16:45]>> [gasps] >> But Europe is his enemy.

[00:16:48]And the major enemy of Europe in today's world, of course, is the Russian Federation, which is trying to destroy Europe. So that's why Trump is helping Putin because he actually needs to provoke Putin into invasion of Europe, and that's what he's doing. He's trying to weaken Europe by, you know, increasing prices for oil for for Europe and for Russia, but for Russia this works as an advantage and for Europe this works as a major disadvantage.

[00:17:26]Uh he's introducing actually sanctions against Europe. He calls them tariffs, but this is are not tariffs. This is sanctions. So his main idea is to make world's democracies weaker. And democracy basically, of course, it's existence in the United States. You know, like half of America is democratic America. It's existence in Canada and that's why we see enormous pressure against Canada because he wants to uh weaken Canada so Canada would not be able to help Europe, to not be able to help Ukraine. But the main democratic power, of course, is United Europe. And that's why Trump is trying to destroy United Europe, to dissolve destroy European Union, to dissolve NATO. This comes all together. So Putin is part of the major strategy.

[00:18:31]As this major strategy is that you need to help Putin to take Ukraine because as long as soon as he takes Ukraine, he proceeds to Moldova and Trump, of course, doesn't care about Moldova, but then he proceeds to to Eastern Europe and Trump knows this because there's no NATO.

[00:18:50]Uh no one is going except Europe itself, right? No one is going to defend defend Europe against the Russian invasion. And this would help, you know, Trump to declare that now America is great again because, you know, it's what what's happening is what was happening after the first World War and after the second World War. So, America could be great only if Europe is destroyed. And Trump is using Putin as an icebreaker to to destroy Europe.

[00:19:30]>> In such conditions in European Union who can be the biggest partner for Ukraine?

[00:19:40]>> Well, the biggest partner for Ukraine exists and this partner is Europe. And I think this friendship is very solid and it's this what it is, you know, uh for for some forever, for some maybe for couple centuries. Uh Europe understands very well that the moment Russia takes Ukraine uh >> [groaning] >> the Russian army proceeds to to Eastern Europe. So, every everyone knows this in Europe, everyone, every politician, every citizen. And the closer you are to the Russian border, the obvious uh this understanding is. So, you have a group of countries, you know, from from Finland to Ukraine who uh understand that they will be invaded uh if a Ukrainian front is uh you know, destroyed. And if if Russia takes Ukraine, that's why again, that's why it's important for Trump to help Putin to take Ukraine. But that's why it's important for Europe to have uh Ukraine to hold uh this front. Now, Ukraine has no, of course, no choices well, because Ukraine knows that there is no way they could, you know, sign a peace agreement with Russia uh which would leave Ukraine an independent country.

[00:21:13]This is not going to happen and Ukrainians know this and so they they have to have European assistance to Europe's assistance to fight against Russia, but Europe has no choice as well because Europe knows that if Ukraine is taken, then they will see Russian troops in Europe. So that this friendship between Europe and Ukraine I think has serious reasons to to to be to continue and to exist. And at that point, I mean by now Ukraine actually is the the major great country of Europe. The way we will we should consider look at Ukraine the way we look at Germany, France, and the Great Britain because Ukraine by now has a is the only country which has great and experienced army which is capable to hold Russian aggression.

[00:22:26]Europe potentially is very strong.

[00:22:28]Europe potentially is going to have great capable army as well, but Ukrainians have experience and of course this is something what Europe doesn't have and let's hope Europe will never have this experience because they have the assistance of Ukrainians.

[00:22:57]>> When we speak about leadership in Europe in negotiations in other processes that are connected with Russian-Ukrainian war, who could it be?

[00:23:12]>> Well, I think basically Europe is united. We've seen this is thanks to Trump in many ways because he united he united Europe.

[00:23:25]And he indicated to Europe that he's not going to help them if they invaded by by Russia and you know, under Trump the United States will never help Europe.

[00:23:42]This this is obvious. So Europe is now united united Europe understands who the enemy is.

[00:23:54]So great great powers of Europe, you know, Great Britain, Germany, France are united in their position towards Putin and Russia and Ukraine.

[00:24:09]The same is true about you know, Finland, the Baltic states, uh, Poland >> [groaning] >> because those countries even if we take into account the some disagreements which we have from time to time especially between Poland and Ukraine, Poles know better than anybody else that if something happens to to Ukraine, uh, Russians will invade Poland and Poland was fighting for their independence against Russia for centuries. So they you do not have to explain to to Poles that you know, they they better try to avoid the Russian invasion, right? They better not to not to break their union with Ukrainians because despite all disagreements Ukraine and Poles Paul you know Poland are now together in their fight against this the Russian aggression which is an obvious uh danger. So, uh Oh, I I think that in doesn't really important who who the leaders are in in in all these countries because the danger coming which is coming from Russia is so great that any any any leader unless uh you know, unless this is somebody like Orban who who was like completely pro pro Putin uh or you know, Milos Zeman who was former president of the Czech Republic who was entirely pro Putin. So, unless we're talking about these kind of leaders uh Europe is united and I I think we we shouldn't be worried [clears throat] too much about uh leadership in in Europe again as long as ultra uh right forces like Le Pen uh in France or like uh you know, German German nationalists are coming in power this this might change situation but we see that in Moldova basically the the Russians were defeated during the elections. In in Hungary Orban lost power.

[00:26:46]Uh in Bulgaria we had uh elections where pro-Russian party actually got the the stronger positions, but Bulgaria itself is not really very dramatically important in this fight.

[00:27:02]But even Armenia we see trying to you know, separate itself from Russian influence and move towards European Union. So I I I believe European Union has great future and I'm clouded future despite all the all those attempts of uh Russians and Americans under Trump right-wing Americans, let's call them to finance ultra-nationalist movements in Europe with the hopes that those forces will gain power, gain control, and dissolve European Union from from within. And this is this is the idea. This is Putin's idea. This is Trump's idea that they will support the right-wing political parties in Europe, they will be able to take control uh in in European Union and simply declare that the European Union will be dissolved. But I But I think this is a dream which is not going to be fulfilled.

[00:28:19]>> I want to speak a little bit about Russia. They have no significant success on the front lines they wanted.

[00:28:28]Instead, oil refineries are attacked, air alarm sounds in Moscow, the economy is something like collapsing. Do you see any grounds for protests inside Russia?

[00:28:44]>> Well, the simple answer is no.

[00:28:47]Uh first I do not really think that the economy is collapsing and it might be collapsing. Who knows? But it's a very slow process and for war you need you need of course people whom you are going to draft into the army and Russia has those people.

[00:29:06]Uh for war you need weapons and Russia produces enough weapons to fight the war in Ukraine.

[00:29:14]>> [gasps] >> And uh you know, economy basically holds I think the the pressure coming from the war.

[00:29:25]Uh so I would not expect the Russian economy collapse so quickly and in a way that this would force the Russian government to stop the war in Ukraine. I I this I mean we would all wish to to see it, but I do not think this might happen.

[00:29:47]Uh There is no pressure on on Putin so far. Again, the pressure might come but the pressure might come not from the opposition which would somehow uh grow up in in Russia.

[00:30:05]But probably from structures like the FSB or you know, within within the Russian within the the Russian ruling group. Right from those people the pressure might come.

[00:30:18]But I do not expect you know popular uprising against Putin. This is not going to happen unless unless you have a major major strikes of Ukrainians against Moscow and then then who knows because all those you know uprisings if they happen somewhere far away from Moscow, no one really would even report about them, and no one would know that they took place. And uh, besides, as we know, uh un- unlike the Soviet Union, uh Russia keeps their borders open.

[00:31:05]And they do it for a reason. Uh they do it precisely because they do not want those people who are unhappy with whatever is happening in Russia to stay in Russia and think about changing the regime. Uh they actually offering them uh one-way ticket uh to to abroad. And this works. And this works. You have uh you have basically the the elite of the Russian Federation uh entirely uh living uh peacefully in somewhere in Europe or in the United States, but not in Russia, right? So, that's why that's why there is no political opposition in Russia. That's why there are no political uh organizations in Russia who are fighting for power against uh Putin.

[00:32:04]So, there is no pressure at all. No pressure is coming. Uh and but again, this might change uh if uh Moscow feels the war. So far, Moscow doesn't feel the war, and uh you know, all of us, those who were born in the Soviet Union, uh we still have some friends or relatives in Moscow, and we talk to them from time to time, and everybody is saying that there is no war in Moscow, and the life is great and beautiful, and you know, people are going to uh theaters, cinemas, exhibitions, restaurants, and every everything is absolutely great. And by the way, there is more money in Moscow today than there was prior to '22 because a lot of money are coming from the budget to finance the war, and those people who are arranging this the the war, all of them live in Moscow, and there are more billionaires in Moscow now than there were prior to '22, and with every year of war, we have more billionaires in Moscow.

[00:33:26]Uh so, uh war is great for business, war is great for Moscow, and this is the major problem.

[00:33:36]>> [snorts] >> It's a pity, but it's for today, and we don't know for certain what will be next next part of this Russian-Ukrainian war.

[00:33:45]Dr. Felstinsky, thank you for this conversation.

[00:33:49]>> Thank you very much for your time.

[00:33:52]>> And [snorts and clears throat] thanks to all our viewers. If this conversation was useful for you, please like and share, and see you.

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