Burnham's 'Emphatic Victory' A Bad Sign For Starmer | John Curtice Analyses Makerfield Results

[00:00:00]This was prime reform territory. And of course the question above all that Labour MPs are looking to see answered is is there a way that we can defeat reform? And the emphatic nature of um Andy Burnham's victory provides as much evidence as at least anyone by-election possibly can of his ability perhaps to be able to do that.

[00:00:27]>> And there are questions about his national appeal. In spite of uh those questions though, we can't take away from the fact that Andy Burnham has secured an emphatic victory in this Makerfield by-election. In his speech, his victory speech, he promised solutions, change, and a final chance for the Labour Party to change direction. Uh Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, uh Sir John Curtice joins us now for analysis on the numbers and the result. Uh John, good morning.

[00:00:54]>> Good morning to you, Calum.

[00:00:54]>> It's really good to speak to you this morning. Just put into context for us uh the Well, just how emphatic Andy Burnham's victory in this by-election actually is.

[00:01:05]>> Well, uh if we look at the record of governments in by-elections, even governments that are rather more popular in the polls than the current one is, typically they lose votes in by-elections. The last time that a government managed to increase its vote in a by-election >> [sighs] >> was the Hartlepool by-election of May 2021. And that was again very much the exception. So, you know, not a surprise that a government can hang on to a seat, but it's certainly a surprise that it is able to do so by increasing its share of the vote um and turning it into a relatively safe seat. So, uh so Yeah. Yeah. John, in general, it's it's quite a remarkable performance, but of course it's happened in a constituency where Labour were 20 points behind in the local elections on on May the 7th, where 2/3 of people voted uh in 2016. This was prime reform territory.

[00:02:03]And of course, the question above all that Labour MPs are looking to see answered is is there a way that we can defeat reform? And the emphatic nature of Andy Burnham's victory provides as much evidence as at least anyone by-election possibly can of his ability perhaps to be able to do that. And that's at the end of the day why in a sense that the scale of the victory matters because I think what's going to happen as a result of this is that, you know, those Labour MPs who are worried about reform but weren't necessarily convinced about Mr. Burnham, rather more of those are now going to be inside Mr. Burnham's camp, be willing to sign his nomination papers.

[00:02:49]And at the end of the day, as as your correspondent was just pointing out, for Keir Starmer to be able to survive, he first of all needs to retain the confidence of the House of Commons. And the question in the next few days is whether or not the emphatic nature of Mr. Burnham's victory means that indeed enough Labour MPs told the whips that up with Mr. Keir they're no longer willing willing to put. And that therefore basically the message from the whips is that the game is up.

[00:03:16]>> Yeah. What were the foundations to Burnham's success in Wakefield?

[00:03:22]>> Well, I think that basically there are three elements to it.

[00:03:26]Number one, and again, this is all essentially discerned from the opinion polls which somewhat underestimate Mr. Burnham's success, but certainly showed you the elements that took took the potential path to his victory. Number one is of course it's still the case that around a half of the people who voted Labour in 2024 are willing to vote Labour again. And I certainly Mr. Burnham could have relied on that element of uh Labour support in the constituency.

[00:03:55]But, as well as running as the incumbent, he was also be able to run as the challenger. Anybody who voted for Labour in 2024, perhaps now however inclined to vote for the Greens or Liberal Democrats or whatever, um who are unhappy with Sir Keir Starmer as leader, were now being presented with somebody said, "Well, if you vote for me, you'll be able to get rid of the person that you don't like, and that might be a more effective vote than expressing your discontent by voting for the Greens or the Liberal Democrats."

[00:04:25]And certainly the polling was suggesting he was getting many more people who voted Labour in 2025, 2024 to vote for him uh than it was going on in the national polls. And then, of course, there's another element, and that is there will be some people who again were thinking maybe of voting for the Greens or Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats or whatever, who didn't want a Reform MP, and therefore were willing to vote for Labour tactically, even they weren't necessarily that keen on Mr. Burnham uh to be able to try to stop Reform. And all those things seemed to have hit home, and it's kind of indicated by the fact that between them, between them, the Conservatives, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats got just 3% of the vote. And the Liberal Democrats in particular, with 0.4% recorded their worst ever parliamentary by-election performance. So, you can see how all these things all these chips came together to give Mr. Burnham this um exceptional result. But, of course, we have one thing we have to have to bear bear in mind straight away, national opinion polls, the pressure on people to be able to say, "Well, I don't like Reform, therefore I'm going to support Labour." That that pressure isn't going to be there, so we can't necessarily expect uh that kind of bounce in the polls. And equally, um if Sir Keir if um Mr. If does become Labour leader, he's going to be the incumbent.

[00:05:48]He can't present himself as the challenger anymore.

[00:05:51]>> That's a very good point. Uh just on Reform UK, overall, should we say it was a bad night for Reform UK when we consider Makerfield and also the Conservatives' victory in Aberdeen South?

[00:06:02]>> Yeah, well, I think certainly one has to say that the political field looks a bit more complicated for Nigel Farage this morning because in a sense both Labour and the Conservatives have indicated that there is still some life left in the two old dogs of British politics. Uh and together with the fact of course also that Restore Britain were able to get more publicity in the Makerfield by-election than they've been able to get hitherto. Certainly, there is now at least the possibility, maybe, maybe, that Labour under uh under under Andy Burnham will be more popular, will pose therefore more of a challenge to Reform for being the largest party inside the UK, and therefore make it less likely that Reform can win a general election, certainly getting an overall majority.

[00:06:47]And meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch in campaigning very specifically on an economic issue, I think it's begun to begin to flesh out, albeit in the very particular circumstances of Aberdeen, you know, for which the question of oil exploration has a particular resonance. But still began for the first time been able to use an economic issue to attract people to the Conservatives in what was frankly a spectacular a a success as was Andy Burnham's in Makerfield. Um to be able to get voters into the Conservative camp. Now, a lot of it I think was people uh uh prized away from Labour. Um Reform's vote went up a bit in the constituency, but not by very much, not by as much as you'd expect given their position in the polls.

[00:07:30]>> Yeah.

[00:07:30]>> Um so, but again, you know, for Nigel Farage therefore, you know, life is not necessarily going to be a smooth path to victory in 2029. It never was going to be, and I certainly the two results that confirm that that is indeed the case.

[00:07:45]>> John, it's great to speak to you. Thank you very much.

[00:07:48]>> You're welcome.

[00:07:48]>> That is Professor Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, who reads the polls like nobody else and analyzes them so capably and so willingly, which is brilliant.