Col. Douglas: The world supports Iran, but America is losing control

[00:00:00]When you talk to Beijing, when you talk to Moscow, and you talk to people in the Middle East, Iran must stay the course.

[00:00:06]Stay back, Iran.

[00:00:07]>> Now, let me ask you about a number of comments you made there cuz there's several things that deserve to be examined here in peace. But let's start off by him by both at the first and at the last that he repeated something he has since, I don't know, the third third or fourth day of this that we are really close to having a deal. Do you think we're really close?

[00:00:27]>> Uh substance abuse is a terrible thing.

[00:00:30]And I don't know what he's smoking, but he needs to give it up.

[00:00:34]>> There are any second point.

[00:00:36]I think we're very in we're uh we're very close to having a very, very good, strong, powerful deal.

[00:00:44]Uh if we go and bomb, which we can do very easily if we want, and we spend another two or three weeks bombing, they'll have nothing left whatsoever >> Uh because none of it makes any real sense.

[00:00:55]Uh the sad part is that people on Wall Street continue to believe him. And I think that's one of the reasons you had to sell off this morning. Oil went a little lower. And there is this underlying supposition up there that what he says is true. You would think by this time they would know better, but I guess not.

[00:01:14]I don't see any evidence for any kind of {quote} deal in sight. Uh there was, as you know, this memorandum of understanding.

[00:01:24]And that seems to have had some sort of existence, and that went back and forth and was ultimately tossed into the uh ashcan by President Trump. So, I I don't I don't know what he's talking about, and I don't see any evidence for it.

[00:01:39]absolutely seen the polling data.

[00:01:42]And he knows that his standing inside the United States is very low. Some people will say, "Well, you shouldn't follow the polls." Well, that sounds good in theory, but in practice, if you're in leading a republic, that's not always a good idea.

[00:01:56]You know, somebody said, I think it was Lincoln that said, "With public sentiment, anything is possible. Without it, nothing is possible."

[00:02:04]So, I think he understands that public sentiment is not with his policy by any means. People are not interested in this war.

[00:02:12]So, that needs to be taken into account.

[00:02:14]I think that truth has sunken in.

[00:02:16]Secondly, I I don't think President Trump ever wanted this war to begin with. I think he felt or knew that he was obligated this based on the promises that he made before he was elected to produce the war.

[00:02:30]He's done it. I'm sure he regrets the hell out of it. He's now stuck, you know, like a fly on flypaper.

[00:02:38]And he doesn't want to stay there. He wants to get out from under it.

[00:02:41]He's been looking for a way out. I don't I'm not sure that he's got one at this stage. And then lastly, it was nice of him to at least convey the impression that he gave a damn about the rest of the world as well as about his own country.

[00:02:55]But, we'll have to see if this turns into something concrete, Dan. I mean, he doesn't need an agreement to stand up and say, "This has been a a disaster for the global economy, and on those grounds alone, I'm ending this operation." That would cost him nothing. It would make him very popular around the world. Everybody at home would breathe a sigh of relief, and we could all get on with our lives. But, he hasn't done that.

[00:03:21]And I don't see any evidence that he will at this stage. He's still obligated to the people that put him into the White House, and those are the billionaires that back Bibi Netanyahu.

[00:03:31]>> Now, I I'm I'm told from from some who have some access to Trump's thinking inside the White House that that he is just terrified of any optics that make him look anything less than the Superman image as he keeps posting of himself on social media, etc. He's created his own persona that now he he's almost paralyzed by it in that if he does exactly what you just said there and there is no question. I strongly advocate him doing that today if possible by lunch. Uh but he would have to then publicly acknowledge I'm not Superman.

[00:04:06]>> Well, it's a tough one and I don't think he can get out and maintain the Superman suit he runs around in. He's going to have to take that off. He's going to have to demonstrate that he's a human being and that he is indeed concerned about something more than his personal standing in the world or whatever he thinks that is. I mean, quite frankly, Dan, I think he's about as popular as the black plague everywhere in the world.

[00:04:32]The only way for him to go when he's in the cellar at this point is up.

[00:04:37]And the way to go up is to end what he calls this extraordinarily successful blockade. I don't know what he's talking about because we know the ships have gotten through.

[00:04:47]And increasingly around the world, it is not Iran that is blamed for the stoppage in the Persian Gulf. It is Donald Trump and the United States.

[00:04:56]So, Dan, on those grounds alone, I think he could come come out and say it, but I think he's worried.

[00:05:02]I think he's afraid of the Israel lobby.

[00:05:05]I think he's afraid of what they might do.

[00:05:08]They control our Congress to the point where if he were to suddenly leave and the potential for impeachment reared its ugly head again, they could see to it that he was impeached and and quickly replaced. I think he knows that.

[00:05:24]Now, this is the problem. This is something else that Americans need to understand.

[00:05:29]It's easy to blame everything that's happened on Donald Trump, but it's not his blame alone. This is a whole of government disaster.

[00:05:38]You've got everybody who's jumped on the Israel lobby bandwagon for war with Iran because everybody has their hand out.

[00:05:47]Everybody wants to personally profit in one way or another. The four stars want to retire and go into these financial firms and deals that New York City offers.

[00:05:57]And then you've got all of the people that are in Congress who want to stay on the gravy train. They want to be guaranteed perpetual office holding.

[00:06:08]The whole thing's a mess. So, it's not entirely Donald fault Donald Trump's fault. We need to understand that Americans as they go forward into the fall. We hear all this about, well, you know, the fall elections. They need to ask themselves some hard questions. Does it really make any difference who controls the Congress? Well, if we think the Democrats are going to open the borders again, empty the jails, suspend the rule of law, yes.

[00:06:34]But other than that, there isn't much difference.

[00:06:38]And I'm not quite sure what Americans are expecting the Republicans to do because they've turned out to be the party of Israel first, period.

[00:06:47]>> Yeah, and we're going to we're going to touch on that in just a second cuz that's a that's a pretty big issue.

[00:06:52]Let's take a look one of the last things Trump said, and you just alluded to it. He says, you know, what has been a big help so far is the blockade. He said, that's putting a lot of pressure. Now, as as I have talked to some folks from Iran and stuff, and then of course just listening to a lot of their public statements, we actually have Professor Morandi on actually this afternoon at 1:00 here.

[00:07:13]>> We've gone from unconditional surrender now to these four points.

[00:07:18]So, how do we get out of this? Well, we get out of it because we can't stay there much longer.

[00:07:23]Now, right now at the moment, he's got Secretary Blinken saying, "Don't worry.

[00:07:28]We can print as much money as we need to and we can stay there as long as possible."

[00:07:34]Well, we'll see.

[00:07:35]I think the the bond market in particular will collapse before he he print the additional billions that will be needed to sustain our presence over there. I also think that the public pressure around the world is going to be enormous. As I said before, when you talk to the global south, when you talk to Beijing, when you talk to Moscow, and you talk to people in the Middle East, whether it's Ankara or Cairo or anywhere else, everyone takes the same position.

[00:08:05]Iran must stay the course. They back Iran. Now, they may not back it all militarily, but they are on Iran's side.

[00:08:14]And so we are the ones who are held responsible for the stoppage, the blockage.

[00:08:19]And I listened to David Rosenberg early this morning, and >> [clears throat] >> you're looking at something coming to an end in September if you drag it out.

[00:08:30]Because by August, we're already going to be in trouble here at home with regard to the strategic petroleum reserve.

[00:08:38]And as you go further in August, we're going to see prices rise. You have the inflation problem anyway.

[00:08:44]You have the new Fed chairman who's trying to suppress chaos in the markets.

[00:08:50]Those things are going to become uncontrollable by the end of the summer.

[00:08:53]So I would say best case for us would be sometime in September, you know, they've got to come in to the president and say, "We can't do this anymore."

[00:09:03]Now again, as I said, I'm sure Mr. Bessant is telling him, "We'll make this work. We'll keep it going."

[00:09:10]But I don't think he is an omnipotent god. There are too many too many variables in this multi-varied equation.

[00:09:19]And I just don't think he can control everything. So I would say best case is probably, in other words, for Donald Trump and and his policy is probably mid-mid September. But you know, again, all of this could fall apart very quickly in July and August depending upon all the things we're talking about. There are just too many too many things that can go wrong at this stage on the economic financial side.

[00:09:44]>> And and plus I would imagine that as we get closer to November, uh especially uh once you get past uh uh I guess uh well and obviously Labor Day, but >> It's been going on for a long time. You could say about 3,000 years if you really want, but certainly it's been going on for 47 years.

[00:10:03]But uh no, he ain't back.

[00:10:05]They were going back and forth and now they've both agreed through me to stop.

[00:10:10]And we're in the final throws of what will be a very, very good deal that will not allow in any way, shape, or form nuclear weapons, etc. It's And then this straight will open up right away. It'll open up immediately upon signing, which could be in two or three days.

[00:10:27]>> So they're they're they're going to not stop for a few days. I mean, that that really starts to look like somebody who even if if knowledge is that he is not in control of the situation. And and let me ask you on that point, Doug.

[00:10:39]Given what happened last weekend, the tenuous nature of the two sides under pressure from Trump, especially on the Israeli side cuz he did put some pressure on apparently, that they because they were going to according to Israeli media, there was a plan for them to have another big wave of attacks on Monday against Iran. And uh President Trump put pressure on them to stop. But how long will that pressure hold?

[00:11:00]>> Well, let's understand a couple of things. Uh I I had the good fortune to meet a number of very senior Israeli military leaders.

[00:11:09]They're all very competent, very thoughtful, sober-minded people.

[00:11:14]Uh you have wiggle room with Iran. You can come to some sort of a modus vivendi there.

[00:11:21]Uh the situation in Syria is dangerous, but at the moment manageable.

[00:11:28]The greater Israel project uh is something that quite frankly is just not going to happen. And I think that's increasingly understood inside the senior ranks.

[00:11:38]But there is one area where the senior Israeli military is going to make it clear where they cannot compromise.

[00:11:47]It's difficult to compromise on the question of Hezbollah.

[00:11:51]Hezbollah is an existential threat to the Israeli state.

[00:11:55]No one can move back to northern Israel until Hezbollah is either destroyed or there is a way found to end the conflict with them.

[00:12:05]Right now there doesn't appear to be any chance whatsoever for a negotiated end to that fight.

[00:12:12]Iran has now done something which no one else in the region has done.

[00:12:18]It is said that their fight is Gaza's fight. Gaza's fight is is Iran's fight.

[00:12:25]Hezbollah's fight is Iran's fight and Iran's fight is Hezbollah's fight. In other words, Iran has emerged as the leader of the Islamic world in resistance to Israeli Jewish supremacy in the region.

[00:12:40]Not so much us because quite frankly our bases are destroyed.

[00:12:44]Our bases we're we're ejected already for all intents and purposes from the Persian Gulf region.

[00:12:50]Very few people, and I think this is an honest appraisal, either in Washington privately or overseas expect us to pour back into the Persian Gulf when the war ends. So I just don't see that occurring.

[00:13:02]Hezbollah is another matter.

[00:13:04]I don't know how you, uh, how you deal with that as an Israeli other than scorched earth.

[00:13:11]Because both sides are incurably hostile to the other. There doesn't appear to be any room there. So, whatever President Trump asks the Israelis to do, the one thing I do not think they will ever do is cease and desist from their attacks on Hezbollah.

[00:13:30]And they will hold on to the area south of the Litani River.

[00:13:35]Uh you know, they may try to repopulate it at some point with Jews that they can bring in from the United States or elsewhere in Europe perhaps, but they cannot allow Hezbollah to organize itself and establish that area as a new platform for attack against Israel.

[00:13:52]That's That's just not possible.

[00:13:55]So, I think >> I'm sorry, Doug. Let me ask you.

[00:13:57]>> fully cooperated in military and diplomatic terms over the last century than Great Britain.

[00:14:06]In the 1990s, when I was in the war plans division, we looked at the capabilities of our various allied elements. Pete, this is back in uh This was uh '94, '95.

[00:14:22]And one of the observations was that, you know, the British really ought to be more robustly equipped and armed for future operations than they are.

[00:14:32]Uh at that particular [clears throat] point in time, I think on a good day the British army could field 40,000 troops to deploy and fight. Today, I'd say it's 30,000 or less.

[00:14:44]But in those days, that was about it.

[00:14:46]That was not nearly what we hoped for or what we liked. And there was a discussion regarding whether or not we should go to the hill and recommend some sort of aid program, military aid program, similar to what we'd done for Israel, by the way, for Britain, for the British military, to bring it up to a level where it was far more capable uh than it was at the time. And that was crushed almost immediately.

[00:15:15]Absolutely unacceptable.

[00:15:17]And the reason was not that we disliked the British, but we weren't going to admit them to the inner sanctum of the US armed forces.

[00:15:27]It was just too much at risk, and we weren't going to do it.

[00:15:31]And we weren't going to become part of their so-called military-industrial-parliamentary complex. So, Israel has always been there. Israel has always had his fingers in these things.

[00:15:44]And via Congress, Congress has consistently over the last 25 to 30 years pushed harder harder >> harder >> to give the Israelis greater and greater access to technology, to information, to classified documents, and so forth.

[00:15:59]And they've done that because it benefited them financially to do so.

[00:16:05]And then we appointed people to high office inside the Department of Defense who had very close ties to the Israelis.

[00:16:12]Dangerously close.

[00:16:14]And I think this got off the ground initially uh towards the end of the Bush administration, and then that remained a constant issue ever after.

[00:16:25]And the second Bush administration certainly fell into that category, where we effectively opened our kimono.

[00:16:33]Uh this is this is something that has to be reversed from the top.

[00:16:37]We need new laws. We need much stiffer laws for security matters.

[00:16:43]Uh and then we have quite frankly too much too often is linked or excuse me leaked to too many people, period.

[00:16:53]And now with this new effort, everything's at risk.

[00:16:59]>> Now, let me ask you if maybe there's a a bit of a light at the end of the tunnel, or at least some appearance of some daylight here that might be good at the top level of Yesterday on Fox News, uh Vice President Vance was asked about this apparent rift with Israel, and he he came as close as any senior official I've seen since this war started to saying, "Hey, we may need to go on a different route than the Israelis if our interests diverge." So, can I get a little optimism from that or is it too little, too late?

[00:17:32]>> Uh quick anecdote.

[00:17:34]In 1961 after 61, excuse me, 65 after uh Lyndon Johnson was elected to the presidency, uh Hubert Humphrey Humphrey wrote a detailed memorandum outlining the reasons why under no circumstances the United States should become involved in Vietnam.

[00:17:54]Very good memorandum. I haven't seen it myself. I've talked to some people who did. I'd love to get a copy of it.

[00:18:00]Uh and uh Hubert Humphrey was summoned to LBJ's office, the the Oval Office.

[00:18:06]And uh there was a very tough session that ensued. And effectively Lyndon Johnson said, "If you're not going to support me and my intervention into Vietnam, and remember we had not yet gone in there, uh then you have to resign the vice presidency."

[00:18:23]And uh Hubert Humphrey, who had made it known to people that he hoped to become a president in the future, like almost every vice president I guess that's ever held the office, uh refused to resign and said, "No, I'll support you in Vietnam."

[00:18:37]Catastrophic. The best thing he could have done was say, "Fine, I'm out."

[00:18:43]J.D. Vance is where he is because like everyone else in the Trump administration, they had to take the oath of allegiance to Israel first agenda.

[00:18:51]The Israel first policies, the Israel first mentality, the Israel first commitment.

[00:18:58]I think he sees the polls. He sees the wind is changing. Most political figures are wind socks.

[00:19:05]And I think he sees that the wind is blowing very strongly now in a direction that is antithetical to the interests of Israel first.

[00:19:14]And so now he is trying to put distance between himself and the president without seeming to do so.

[00:19:22]So I would like to give you some optimism, but I can't.

[00:19:28]>> Well, okay. Well, that was pretty point blank.

[00:19:32]Uh I I guess we'll just have to hope that maybe those socks can blow hard enough, but you know what what could actually help is is more of a an exposure to the cost to the American people, which would probably increase the winds of the polling winds that you're talking about. When they take a look at what has cost us and have what we have failed to do militarily since this thing started. And a couple things I want to point out here. Uh number one is that uh the a lot of our bases >> As the case, I would also like to finish up on the last point by saying or asking everybody in the audience, how many times did we destroy uh the Viet Cong insurgency in South Vietnam before we finally left the country?

[00:20:14]Time's up. At least six or seven times.

[00:20:18]How many times did we say that we had destroyed the insurgency in Iraq that was against our presence before we finally left?

[00:20:27]Oh, at least three or four times that I can count listening to the spokesman for the forces in Baghdad.

[00:20:34]My point is that you know, this this kind of thing goes on and when you try to point to the cost, the the real cost is swept under the rug, Dan. It doesn't reach anybody. The cost is blood and treasure, and that's the last thing anybody at the top of the power paradigm in Washington, frankly, thinks about. We can always spend more money, and we can always find more people to go over and fight for us.

[00:21:01]Now, as far as this basing issue is concerned, this is is Korean journalist, uh and I don't know a great deal about him, but he's very articulate. What he's written is an extraordinarily well-organized, well-argued essay that simply says the following, something that we've talked about before and we know to be true.

[00:21:19]You're you're dealing with a new potential military power, new technologies that are only just now maturing.

[00:21:28]The islands that are in easy striking distance for uh ISR strike capabilities that the potential opponent has, but also we now put at risk the countries where we're based.

[00:21:43]There is a huge split and has been for some time between us and most of the allies that we have in Asia over the issue of a war with China.

[00:21:54]No one in Korea, no one that I'm aware of in Japan, no one in Vietnam uh is really interested in a war with China. Quite the contrary, they all want to avoid it. They all have important trade relationships with China.

[00:22:09]They've been admitted to the Chinese market. They are benefiting from that.

[00:22:13]They do not share our view of China as this uh Imperial Japanese-like entity that is bent on uh conquering Asia.

[00:22:22]We are the ones that talk about war in Asia over and over and over again. I would also include the Philippines in that category, but the Philippines are so desperate for aid and support from us, they're probably going to sign up for almost anything that we offer.

[00:22:36]Uh the the point I'm trying to make is that he is right. This Korean journalist is correct. We don't need to be in these countries anymore, and our presence there is probably potentially dangerous to the people that live there, and that includes Korea and Japan in Asia without question and probably also the Philippines. And again, not because of imminent invasion, but when war breaks out, you begin to look at the map and you identify all the potential damage that your enemy can do to you, the worst things that he can do to you. That's what guides your thinking, or it should.

[00:23:10]And so, you begin to say, "Well, if those are the worst things he can do, what can I do to defeat him?"

[00:23:17]And inevitably, you drag everyone into war.

[00:23:20]And if you listen to President Trump, and by the way, he's not the first one.

[00:23:24]I saw this go on under George W. Bush, and later on with Obama, we're always trying to drag other people into our conflicts and crises as a way to try and legitimate what we're doing.

[00:23:37]Well, you can't say this war is not justified. Look at our allies here.

[00:23:41]And how does that work? Well, usually you buy them.

[00:23:46]You call the Bangladeshi army and say, "What do you really need this week?"

[00:23:51]And the Bangladeshi army says, "Well, we really need new boots." You got them.

[00:23:55]We'll pay for them. What else do you want?

[00:23:57]Oh, well, what do you want? Well, we want you to go with us to the Balkans.

[00:24:01]We want you to go with us to the Middle East. We want We'll reverse whatever gains you've made strategically. We'll turn Ukraine into the battering ram that it once was.

[00:24:11]I think they're I think they're overly optimistic. I think Ukraine, certainly when you leave Kiev and you go out into the countryside and you deal with the people who are living there, is exhausted and the state itself as an apparatus is crumbling.

[00:24:25]Now, the bad news is that President Putin just gave a speech in St. Petersburg.

[00:24:32]I've got to go back and read it a couple more times, but it conveys the impression to me, at least in the translation, that he plans, at least for the moment, to stay the course.

[00:24:42]And he's told his countrymen, "We we need to keep on fighting."

[00:24:47]Uh I have not heard any promise of victory or completion.

[00:24:55]That worries me a little bit because I think there are still people in Moscow who hope against hope that they're going to get something from Trump that they can take back to the bank. That President Trump can provide them with an agreement that will be respected by the Europeans.

[00:25:12]That will really end this war and eliminate the permanent danger to Moscow that currently resides in Kiev.

[00:25:19]I don't think so.

[00:25:21]I don't think he they can expect anything from President Trump in this administration. President Trump can't guarantee a damn thing right now to the Iranians, which is a big problem.