Electoral success depends on multiple interconnected factors including party brand strength, candidate performance, and campaign strategy; even in favorable demographic conditions, parties can underperform if candidates appear unprepared or if campaign messaging fails to resonate with voters.
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'It's not good news for Reform'
Added:Scarlett, we've seen some of the weaknesses of Reform in this campaign.
I do want to stress, still did very well for a brand new party.
Well, how well did they do, Scarlett.
I'm not sure, so you know that they actually got fewer votes than they did in the local elections, which I think is not good news for them.
You know, the local elections were only a month ago.
So I think that does point to some problems.
Now, some of that will be put down to Andy Burnham’s popularity, but I don't think all of it can be.
And again, some of it might be put down to Restore.
But as you say, the maths doesn't add up to solely blame this on Restore.
And you know, this constituency was in their top ten performances in 2024, in terms of the vote share they got, you know, one of their best constituencies.
As you said the demographics are incredibly Reform friendly, it's in their top 30 target seats at the next election.
They only went forward by 2% from 2024.
That, you know, regardless of who they were facing, it's not a great result.
Is that a party thing or was Robert Kenyon, bless him, just a disastrous candidate because of everything he'd said about women in the past and his inability to defend that really properly on Question Time, he looked like he was ill-prepared by their press team frankly, he looked like a rabbit in headlights most of the campaign didn't he?
And he spent a lot of it in the van.
Well he is a plumber.
No, I know, I know, but there was a, it did look a bit he was starting to get the accusation that you're not actually out there, you're just in the van interviewing famous Reformers.
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