Liberals lead heading into summer break while NDP gains momentum: Nanos

[00:00:00]Well, how are Canadians feeling about the major political parties as the summer break starts? Nick Nanos is here to break down the numbers. He's the founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research. Hi Nick, good to see you.

[00:00:11]>> Good morning, Lauren.

[00:00:13]>> So, the Liberals are up slightly while the Conservatives have dropped two points. What does this tell you about the spring session wrapping up and where things stand right now?

[00:00:22]>> Well, you know, for the last number of months the Liberals have been in the driver's seat. They've had a double-digit lead. It's like 43-31 between the Liberals and the Conservatives with the NDP back at around 12%. Interesting that, you know, the Bloc are up and the Green Party are up. It just speaks to the fact that, you know, what we're seeing is an environment where the Liberals are have the advantage. And it looks like Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives have not been able to close the gap.

[00:00:50]But, you know, I saw the picture of the House of Commons that you were showing, Lauren. I saw clouds. And you know, the thing is you look at these numbers with the with the Liberals ahead. The fact of the matter is is this fall there probably will be some turbulence for the Liberals. There'll be the Quebec election. There'll be the Alberta referendum, the midterm elections, all that kind of stuff. So, it's been smooth sailing for the Liberals the last few months, but I think the fall will probably be a little more difficult to navigate compared to compared to the spring and summer for the Liberals.

[00:01:21]>> So, Nick, with the NDP sitting at 11.5% how important will those voters be in determining whether the Liberals can maintain their lead?

[00:01:29]>> Well, you know, the thing is the the NDP numbers are the ones that I'm watching because in this past session we had a significant or major Liberal Party member, Guilbeault, an environmentalist, step down and leave. You know, the thing is is what the Liberals have to watch out for is not necessarily just the Conservatives. They have to watch out for the NDP on their left flank. With the NDP positioning themselves, and maybe they will position themselves as the real progressive party, not the Liberals under Mark Carney, who had been focused very much on economic issues, very much on trade, because that's been the top priority of uh of Mark Carney, and uh what I'll say, environmental policies are still important for the Liberal government, but not with the same level of importance compared to the previous Liberal government.

[00:02:22]>> So, jobs and the economy remain the top issue for Canadians. What does that signal to governments as they set their priorities this summer?

[00:02:30]>> Well, what it speaks to is what all the parties have to really focus on, jobs and the economy. You know, inflation is also up there as the top national issue of concern, uh as is healthcare. Trump and US relations is down a little bit compared to the last 4 weeks, but check it out. We were talking about turbulence a little earlier, Lauren. National unity, not really on the agenda, now at 5% in the top five issues, and I think a lot of this has to do with the impending Alberta vote that will happen this fall, and probably a little uh focus on the Quebec election and what that might mean, whether the PQ's separatist party provincially win, or whether the Liberals uh win the next uh election in Quebec.

[00:03:12]>> This week, the feds announced a new housing plan with BC. That comes [clears throat] as your data shows many are worried about paying housing costs next month. What's driving that level of confidence despite affordability concerns here?

[00:03:26]>> Well, I think a lot of it has to do where many Canadians, a significant proportion, I think it's about 28%, feel trapped. And when I say trapped, trapped in the sense that they're worried or somewhat worried about just paying for housing, whether it's rent or their mortgage in the next uh in the next 30 days. And you know, the the kicker here, Lauren, is that that number of 28% worried about paying for housing jumps to 41% among Canadians that are under 35 years of age. The key takeaway here, younger Canadians feel crushed with the burden of the cost of housing. And it's not a surprise that the federal government is trying to do something on it. But you know what? Provincial governments and municipal governments are weighing in on strategies to make housing more affordable. And I think a lot of this has to do with young people just saying it's just they just can't afford to pay for the rent.

[00:04:18]And owning a home is looking more and more as something that is difficult to achieve.

[00:04:24]>> All right, Nick. Thank you for your time this morning. Really appreciate it.

[00:04:27]>> Bye-bye.

[00:04:28]>> Nick,