Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington scheduled for June 23-25

[00:00:00]US capital by Marisa Khurma. She is the CEO at Amina Strategies and a non-resident fellow at the Baker Institute. Thank you very much indeed for your time.

[00:00:11]I suppose it would have been naive to think that that any deal between the US and Iran would lead to immediate peace in Lebanon, but but it is also clear that Lebanon may hold the key to all of this.

[00:00:24]>> [snorts] >> Yes, it's very difficult to disentangle Lebanon from the larger picture with regards to Iran's involvement in the region precisely because of the Hezbollah factor. Hezbollah remains to be supported, financed, and heavily backed by Iran. They take their cues from Iran and it's very difficult to disentangle. I think there was tremendous effort by the Lebanese government to do so by going in into direct talks with the Israeli government in order to end the state of war between the two countries formally, but that direct process has also been derailed by continuous fighting.

[00:01:04]And so it is challenging to disentangle Lebanon from all of this. The Iranians also continue to insist that any fighting in Lebanon will impact progress on the US-Iranian track as well. As we have seen, you know, we've heard from your correspondents that these talks in in Switzerland have been delayed. But the key moving forward is for this heavy diplomatic to continue.

[00:01:34]As we've seen in the last few weeks of different mediators and brokers pitching in from the region, this is not the work of solely one country. This this was truly a regional effort led by many different countries that have channels with the Iranian government but also are key US allies in the region.

[00:01:59]>> And what's your assessment of the deal that has been agreed at at least the memorandum of understanding? Because Donald Trump's certainly taking quite a lot of criticism at home and abroad about too many concessions to Tehran.

[00:02:15]>> [snorts] >> Well, it is going to be very difficult to make the case for why this is a good deal for the United States. We've heard enough where we've heard President Trump and Vice President Vance go very heavy in criticizing essentially anyone who criticizes the this deal.

[00:02:35]But there's domestic pressure on President Trump as well. There is there are midterm elections that will be held in in the fall. There there are tremendous economic pressures and financial pressures on the average American citizen and it's beyond just being felt at the gas station and I think these have truly pushed the United States administration to move forward with the deal. The Iranian regime of course, I mean their primary objective was to survive and they've been able to get everything that they asked for and so they are of course shamelessly moving forward also on the international arena as the victors of of this latest round and as you know, the major beneficiaries of the war. But as you mentioned earlier, really the progress is key as we move forward and make sure that this leads to a final settlement because there it was in the interest of most parties that were involved in brokering this to de-escalate because everybody in this latest round in the Middle East was impacted very significantly not only through drones, but they're precisely in the GCC in the Gulf region, their economic formula was severely shaken.

[00:04:00]>> And and should fighting continue between Hezbollah and Israel in Southern Lebanon, and it certainly appears that that that is going to be the way forward. Um that's what we've seen over the over previous ceasefires.

[00:04:15]Um to what extent you think Iran would be prepared to ditch the deal that's on the table to support Hezbollah? Because by common consensus, they've got pretty generous terms.

[00:04:28]>> So, I think this has been already tested with this latest drone. So, we've seen a a major attack that killed more than 47 people in Lebanon, and then continuous fire, and this has essentially led many of the major mediators in the region, primarily Qatar, to also work with the Iranians in order to pressure Hezbollah to agree to this latest ceasefire from today.

[00:04:54]Of course, we've also been hearing from right-wing ministers in Israel that this fire this ceasefire should not hold, you know, calling for burning all of Lebanon. So, we're going to hear a lot of these extremist voices, but it's in the best interest of all parties to ensure that there is calm or relative calm in Lebanon in order to move forward.

[00:05:14]Iran has suffered tremendously in this war, and yes, they are framing this as a victory because they also survived as a regime.

[00:05:23]But they have also suffered tremendously, and so no one can really afford to go back to another state of war, particularly given President Trump's threats to continue to use the force and brutal force on Iran if this is not going to move forward. So, I think right now this is a true test for everyone involved, and it's why we're hearing such strong statements coming from the US administration, from President Trump himself, from J.D. Vance about how the Israelis need to be reined in. That essentially, as J.D. Vance mentioned, they cannot kill, you know, their way through the region in order to protect themselves. So, truly this ceasefire will be a test, but it is very delicate.

[00:06:10]>> It is indeed. Marissa, thank you very much for joining us. Appreciate you coming on Dotty World to give us your analysis. Marissa Cormack there, CEO at Amina Strategies and non-resident fellow at the Baker Institute.

[00:06:22]>> Thank you.