Iran deal: A win for both sides?

[00:00:00]So, the Iran deal. This, the 14-point memorandum of understanding. Both sides are, of course, spinning it as good for them. The US Vice President has been doing that for a week now.

[00:00:13]>> I think the President's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Well, they've made very concrete nuclear commitments, the blockade is off, the straits are now open, their military and their nuclear program is still destroyed.

[00:00:26]>> And the remarkable sight of the Iranian President holding a document with US President's signature on it tells us surely that he's happy to be seen with it, too.

[00:00:37]Both sides, then, think it's good, which can't be quite right, or can it?

[00:00:42]Remember first that this isn't actually a deal. It's simply a commitment to get to a deal within 60 days, a timeline which both sides can mutually agree to extend. So, in that sense, it's a kicking of the can.

[00:00:57]The document also commits to returning the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war status, open, again, a good thing. Oil prices down, global markets up. But here, the US side is trumpeting a win by solving a situation which it caused in the first place. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz wasn't a pre-war problem. It was a symptom of the war.

[00:01:21]So, what about the pre-war problems?

[00:01:23]Well, here, it's kind of bewildering to see how President Trump's original red lines and demands of Iran seem to have completely evaporated. First, regime change. Remember this?

[00:01:34]>> To the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.

[00:01:45]>> Well, now that's gone, totally. The same regime is now made up of good people, says Trump. And the document says both sides will respect each other's sovereignty.

[00:01:55]What about the ballistic missile program? Well, before the war >> We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.

[00:02:09]>> And now, in this document, no mention at all of ballistic missiles. US intelligence say that most of the ballistic missiles in Iran remain intact despite the US bombings. Vance, by the way, claims that that intel report is fake news. And in a complete U-turn now, Trump and his team say, "Why shouldn't Iran have ballistic missiles?"

[00:02:29]>> They have to have some because other people have some. They got to have some.

[00:02:34]>> Then there's the nuclear program. Point eight of the document says the Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.

[00:02:42]Trump says, "That's a big achievement, but it's not new." The Iranians have said that repeatedly for years.

[00:02:49]Believing them or not, well, that's another matter. And by the way, something the old Obama deal, which Trump ditched, dealt with with an intrusive verification process. This document has no verification process built into it. It's left for future negotiations. The status of the highly enriched uranium still inside Iran, working out what to do with it, that too is left for the future.

[00:03:14]So, back to the question how this document is good for both sides. Well, for the Iranian regime, it's good because first, they survived. This does not represent Iran's total defeat, which Trump once claimed he wanted. They survived with a missile program, with nuclear know-how, with enriched uranium, with regional proxies, battered, yes, but emboldened, too. And they survived with newfound clout, leverage, the Strait of Hormuz. So much in here is deferred to a later date. So, how's it good for America? Well, mainly because it brings a painful and hugely expensive war to an end now. With shipping resumed and markets calmed, it's notable that the main selling point Trump and his team are making is that this will make life cheaper for Americans.

[00:04:03]>> You really have a win-win situation for the United States of America.

[00:04:06]>> Back to how it was before Trump's war of choice began.