'A REFERENDUM ON OIL!' Kemi Badenoch masterminds CRUSHING DEFEAT of SNP in MASSIVE by-election win

[00:00:00]Hello, I'm Ben Boland, the Scottish editor of the Daily Express. I'm here with my colleague Douglas Dicki, who's the content editor, and we're here to reflect on quite a big night of uh politics on both sides of the border.

[00:00:13]Obviously, uh the big story from a UK perspective is Andy Bernham's huge win in the Makerfield bi-election, which will uh no doubt trigger a leadership challenge and possibly a change of prime minister. But here in Scotland, the big story today is undoubtedly up in Abedine South where the Conservatives have gained a seat, a Westminster seat as a Scottish bi-election for the first time in almost 60 years, uh, ousting the SNP in Steven Flynn's former constituency of Abedine South. It's a huge, it's a monster win for the Scottish Conservatives. It's a massive blow for for John Swinny, for the SMP, for Steven Flynn himself. Um, and uh, yeah, it's big news. So, it's not all about Makerfield today. So, so Douglas, um, just ju just on this, am I overselling this? Am I overstating how big this is for for Scottish politics?

[00:01:10]>> No. No, not at all. Um, I bet Steven Flynn wishes he just went on his World Cup holiday last week. For viewers who don't know, the former SMP Westminster leader was supposed to be in the US supporting Scotland, but we suspect he was ordered to stay behind by John Swinny to campaign. Fat would a good that, you know, fat would have used that done them because it was an absolute crushing. Um, and I think it shows a few things. Ben, obviously the Tories hammered this seat. They had big hopes for it. They came close to winning it in 2024. They came close to winning a roughly corresponding seat at Hollywood and just a few weeks ago. So, we always knew it was in play. Um, beforehand, you know, I think maybe a certain degree of self-preservation. You and I predicted Datax would cling on H, but it wasn't even remotely close. I think I think get more than 50% of the vote.

[00:02:10]>> Well, they're saying they got bang on 50. I don't know if it's exact, but it's more or less 50. a majority of more than 6,000.

[00:02:17]>> Yeah. Which is, you know, in a kind of multi- party constituency is incredible.

[00:02:23]>> Well, thank you Angela and all the council staff and the police for a smooth election. I was going to say today, but it was actually yesterday.

[00:02:30]And to my friends, supporters, and volunteers, we did it.

[00:02:40]>> And the people of Aberdine have spoken loud and clear. We stopped the SMP and we sent Labour the message that the destruction of the North Sea oil and gas industry must stop now.

[00:02:57]>> And to everyone in Aberdine that put their trust in me, thank you. I share your anger. I share your frustration.

[00:03:03]And I share your fears for the future.

[00:03:06]and I promise that I will be a strong voice for this city, standing up for you, your families, and your livelihoods against shortsighted policies. Now, we said at the start of this campaign that it is a referendum on the oil and gas industry, and the people of Aberdine have gave a resounding answer that we back the oil and gas industry.

[00:03:31]And I'm lucky enough to have not just uh one leader but two fantastic leaders in Russell Finley and Kem Benedok. Um I have received a a huge amount of support for for Russell. He's backed me 100%.

[00:03:49]And and in Kem a big part of this election victory belongs to Kem. You know, one of her first first visits when she c when she became conservative leader was to Aberdine. And when she was on that flight, a fellow passenger approached her and pleaded for her to save Aberdine and the oil and gas industry. And now she understands that we need North Sea for our prosperity and the energy security. And our commitment to my campaign and the people of Aberdine has been nothing short of exceptional.

[00:04:21]And what has been made clear here tonight is that the Labor and the S&P governments must act to end the willful destruction of the energy industry. Now, I would also like to thank my superb campaign team aly led by my agent James Tweedy as well as the excellent Mark McKinnus and and Alexander Bernett. You know, we had a we had a strategy and a plan, and they executed that plan with military precision. And I've been truly humbled during this campaign by the number of friends and volunteers that have came out and helped to knock the thousands of doors that we have visited or delivered the mountain of leaflets. And I'm proud of to be part of the Conservative value, a family that extends to all parts of the United Kingdom.

[00:05:15]And I would also like to thank all those voters who maybe are not natural conservatives but who have lent their vote to me today. I will I I I know they put their trust in me and I will repay that trust. I also want to thank I'm almost at the end. My family especially my mom and dad June and Douggee who are my who are my greatest supporters and also my fiercest critics.

[00:05:43]And I also thank my fianceé Diane. Where is she? She's there for her total support.

[00:05:50]She never complains when our weekend plans are cancelled and I know she's with me every step of the way. But now the work begins. So thank you again to the people of Abberine and I promise that I won't let you down. Thank you.

[00:06:08]>> And what they had done a few things I think have led to this. They were they were very good at hammering home the oil and gas message. You know, Kem Bengh came up here and and effectively made it a referendum on oil and gas and the future of the industry. Obviously, Aberdine, the northeast of Scotland in general is heavily reliant and I think that's why this result is so important for the whole of the UK because you know it's that it's an industry that's so important to the whole of the UK. We we we have to import too much energy as it is. we need to start producing our own energy and and I think that's a message from voters that they want to see um you know that we're not ready for net zero just yet perhaps ever who knows and the second thing is operation branch form in the background I don't think there's any doubt again for those who don't know this was a police probe into the S&P finances which will finally culminate next week when S&P chief executive Peter Muro is sentenced for embezzling over £400,000 from the party over a period that roughly coincided with his marriage to Nicholas Sturgeon who was party leader for part of that time. There's no doubt at all that you know voters see that and think can the S&P be trusted. I know they've tried to kind of play it down but I don't think there can be any doubt that that's been in the back of um voters minds. And the third thing Ben and I'm going to ask you what you think of this. I think it's a massive um personal vote of confidence in Kem Beno who's been up in Aberdine a lot over the past few months. I think she's improved immeasurably in the past two years as leader of the opposition in the past 18 months and and and and and I think it's a lot of confidence in her. I mean she's she's really impressing right now, isn't she?

[00:07:55]>> Big win here. What's your reaction?

[00:07:56]>> I'm delighted. Uh I'm absolutely delighted to have a new Conservative MP Douglas Lumston. uh a fantastic candidate uh knows Abedine inside out, worked in the oil and gas sector, which was what the referendum uh was about. We said that this bi-election should be a referendum on oil and gas, and Abedine sent a message to the S&P in Hollywood and to Labor in Westminster that they will not be ignored. You >> say it's a referendum on oil and gas, but you you won yourself an extra MP here, but you still don't have the numbers to make any real impact, do you?

[00:08:25]Well, actually, uh, I think a lot of people are going to be thinking again because if they know that this is what people in Abodine are thinking, they'll be thinking about the next election.

[00:08:34]Right now, we have a problem with national security. The defense secretary has resigned. Energy security is part of our national security and Abedine is absolutely critical for energy security.

[00:08:44]We need to drill our own oil and gas in the North Sea rather than import it from Norway who are drilling in the same North Sea or worse from Russia which is something that is happening right now. I think it is absolutely critical that we show that we care about national security, we care about energy, and we care about the defense of our country and of course people's jobs.

[00:09:03]>> You may have had a big win here, but you had a pretty terrible result down in in Makerfield. After that result, do you think Andy Burnham was now set for Downing Street?

[00:09:09]>> Uh well, uh the Makerfield bi-election was about one man's job. The bi-election in Abedine South was about thousands of jobs across the country. So that one man, Andy Bernham, is now uh wanting to be prime minister. We don't know what his agenda for the country is. We only know what his agenda for the Labor Party is. I think the first thing he needs to do is start looking at how we fund our defense. There is a crisis now where the defense secretary has said we are not safe and we're not able to look after our troops. That's the first thing he needs to do.

[00:09:37]>> Do you think a monthsl long Labor leadership election is the right thing for the country right now?

[00:09:42]>> Well, uh, every minute that Labor is focusing on its own issues is a minute extra that we are not defended. It's time that the Labor party got a grip.

[00:09:50]It's not just about the leadership. The backbenches too have a problem. That's why they are in this mess. Uh they're not really the Labor Party anymore.

[00:09:57]They're the welfare party. That's all they care about.

[00:10:00]>> Great.

[00:10:01]>> Thank you.

[00:10:02]>> She is. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think it's also a vote of confidence in in Russell Finley. I mean, it seems strange to say this given that the SMP just won a fifth term of office, but that victory was so soft. I mean, it it it really was. I mean, it was very disappointing for a lot of pro-UK voters. For for the pro-UK majority in Scotland, it's very disappointing, but it it's a way for thin mandate to govern. John Swinn's got the smallest number of MSPs of of any Scottish government since Alex Salmon's uh minority in 2007.

[00:10:41]And yeah, I don't I I think this is why we've not seen Russell Finley resign despite losing lots of lots of MSPs that there are other factors at play here.

[00:10:52]Russell Finley is doing a good job.

[00:10:54]Kevin Bnock's doing a great job. I I think she's she's really becoming quite popular in Scotland and and and yeah, the um the the S SNP today are trying to paint this as a tactical voting victory where whereas actually if reform hadn't come along and split the pro-UK vote, we probably wouldn't have an S SNP government to start with. So, so actually tactical voting may have played a part last night, but I think it's more to do with actually it it's it's a rebalance. This is where the the the the constituency truly is. Um it it's and I mean let's let's um not overstate it. It is a constituency that has been held by the Conservatives in the past. It's not an SMP stronghold, but it it should have been an SMP victory. The the common >> the margin of the victory and >> the margin of the victory was huge. the the fact that Steven Flynn, who hopes to become SMP leader and first minister, steps down, obviously confident that he his seat just retains uh stays with the SMP.

[00:12:04]And now this is this is a huge blow to to to Flynn and it's a huge blow to to the SMP as a whole. Swinn is not expected to to um see out the parliament. some of his leadership contenders are are either tred with association with Nicholas Sturgeon and branch form and Peter Murl or Steven Flynn who's viewed as sort of the the one guy who's no connection to Sturgeon and could come in as a kind of new broom has seen his own personal popularity absolutely swept aside in this way. It's huge. And no wonder, I think within minutes of this coming in, he was obviously uh so we've no idea, is he off to the US? Is he currently on a plane? Where is he? Um because he tweeted at about half one this morning and said some in the party need to reflect on this result. Um so kicking off an absolute scrap, uh John Swinny's former special advisers said, "Well, that should include you. you you started this by triggering this unnecessary bi-election. Joanna Cherry of course who um loves stirring stirring it within the S SNP has has said as you said there Douggee that um uh branch form was a major factor in this. Clearly oil and gas was was the big the big uh motivating factor in in Abedine South where so many people work in the oil and gas industry.

[00:13:36]I I think also it reflects a wider view among people in Scotland and probably across the UK that we don't want to see the North Sea oil and gas industries closed down. We we want to be energy self-reliant.

[00:13:50]Obviously, we're all concerned about climate change, but there's got to be a balance. You if we're relying on imported oil and gas, why aren't we drilling our own? Um so, so yes, it's a big one. Um I I uh >> I think as well it's for years and years I feel like the SMP and you know let's not forget they did win a by election last night as well in a broth and brought Ferry although that was a much you know that I think that was always going to be an SMP.

[00:14:20]>> Yeah. Although again the Tories finished second.

[00:14:23]>> Yeah. Tori's done okay. But I think it's a sign that um for years and years I feel like the S SNP have succeeded because they've been able to be all things to all people and they've kind of presented themselves you know in the northeast they presented themselves as the defenders of oil and gas and defenders of Aberdine while in the central belt and other parts of Scotland where you know are maybe seen as a bit more leftleaning you know they were very much about net zero and and about you know the just transition and and I think as more focus has fallen on that I think people are seeing through it and the fact of the matter is the S&P message on oil and gas and this bi-election was was all over the place so it's so completely muddled they continue to have a presumption against new new oil and gas fields and and and yet pretend to be on the side of the workers up there um no one knows how to transition yet it's as simple as that on mass. It it's it's it's not going to happen anytime soon. And until we're in a position to do that, we're going to need oil and gas and we're going to need those jobs. And and the S&P have just failed to stick up for them because they've been trying too hard to, you know, keep people in the central belt happy while also keeping people in Aberdine happy. And voters, you know, voters last night seem right, you know, seen right through it. And you know, this is the problem. It it it's I mean it's so ironic that uh the line seems to be we've fallen victim to I saw one nationalist um commentator say that it was far right tactical voting as as yeah um so so this this line that it's it's tactical voting it's so ironic given that the SMP themselves benefit from tactical voting because their pals in the Scottish Greens uh don't stand in all the the Hollywood constituencies He did stand. I mean, I'm amazed that the the Greens got almost a thousand votes in Abedine South given the the area's sort of reliance on the oil and gas industry. But but there you go. I just it special to see the Greens actually stand in an election against the S&P for once. But the S&P have also no no one in Scotland or in fact no one in the UK has probably benefited more from the rise of reform than the S&P because it's taken votes away from Labour that's taking votes away from the Tories.

[00:16:48]>> So and John Swinn's topped up reform more than anyone else.

[00:16:53]I mean regardless of what John Swinny Steven Flynn etc might tell you they love reform because they see that as a way of splitting the pro-UK vote. And as you said earlier, they won the election.

[00:17:05]They won far more seats than anyone else. But it was a victory built on sand because when you actually crunch the numbers and you look into it, there's no great I mean I've seen the the the women that won and brought a ferry last night was given it this shows the appetite for independence for referendum blah blah blah. It no there is no there's absolutely no appetite for it whatsoever. None. No, there's no I mean in Abro and Broy Ferry, there was a majority for the pro-UK parties. Again, the Greens didn't stand there to to give their their pals a chance, but but there was a a big majority for the four parties that oppose Scottish independence. So, yeah, it's nonsense to say there's an appetite. I mean this what what I would say to to anyone who's watching who who's maybe not that familiar with Scottish politics, there is this uh belief that the SMP represent Scotland and and they always say they speak for Scotland constantly pretend that they speak for the entire country which is 100% behind them. The S&P now have eight MPs >> out of 57 I think it is now in Scotland.

[00:18:15]They've got eight MPs. I mean, that that's that's a tiny number. It it it just shows that the the political landscape here is as fractured as it is anywhere else.

[00:18:27]>> And the SMP are by no means the the the voice of Scotland as they portray themselves to be. A party with MPs is essentially, you know, it's it's a bit part player >> when it comes to Westminster. Um so so just moving on to to Westminster uh Douggee obviously Makerfield Andy Burnham do you think there's is there anything that to be taken uh is there a Scottish angle on this? Is there a obviously it looks like we're going to get a change of prime minister but but how how does this play out in Scottish politics?

[00:19:07]>> Well that's that's kind of the main thing is we're going to have a change of prime minister I think in the next few months. Don't think there's any doubt about that. Now, and Andy Burnham I think would be quite a popular guy up here in a way that Pier Starmer isn't. He's obviously from Northern England right away. That gives a bit more um you know quite a lot of people up here think Westminster is very London centric, very southeast centric. Uh perhaps not without justification at times. And I think Sir Star is someone who kind of exemplified that. You know, this kind of lefty lawyer type >> from Yeah. who's kind of, you know, comes from that very kind of establishment, I suppose, progressive kind of kind of establishment the UK has. Whereas Andy Burnham's got a bit more authenticity about him. He's obviously done a pretty decent job regardless of your politics.

[00:20:08]He appears to be popular in Manchester.

[00:20:10]He seems to have done a decent job there. You'll know more about that than me, Ben. Uh, so I think ultimately whether I agree or disagree with Andy Bernham's politics, I think him winning in Makerfield is a boost for the union because I think he is someone who Scottish voters will respond to right or wrongly and I think it's harder for the SNP to attack Labor from the left if Andy Burnham is a Labor leader as opposed to Sirma.

[00:20:40]Um, you know, we've we've spoken about reform up here being a bit woolly on the union. You know, Nigel Farage refuses to kind of rule out that second independence referendum. So, I I think it's a I think it's a good result for Scotland within the union and that's kind of the main, you know, that's my kind of main takeaway and main priority from it.

[00:21:01]>> Well, well, this is it. I mean, I think it's it's often understated how much people in Scotland view everything through the prism of of the union and and independence. And while clearly there's a huge number of of Scots who do support independence and and are very keen on another referendum, there's an equally huge and I would argue slightly larger number who who want to stay part of the UK and are desperate for for for there not to be another referendum. And within that group that there's a large percentage, many of them are express readers who just want the S&P out of power. We're just sick of it. two decades, the country has gone slowly slipping down the pan and more rapidly by the year and anything that that that damages the S&P is is good for that that large number of voters. So, so yeah, while I mean I would disagree that Andy Burnham is this kind of political messiah and this this great um political genius, but hey, look, if if if it weakens the S SNP, then I'm all for it.

[00:22:13]AB: >> Absolutely. And I think it will. I mean, it does.