The MOU Failed: IRGC Mutiny Paralyzes the Global Economy

[00:00:00]Strait of Hormuz is closed again.

[00:00:02]>> So, apparently there were mixed messages coming outside of Iran via the Islamic regime, and I'll put up link from the New York Post. I guess the IRGC said it was closed, but then the foreign ministry of the regime stated later that it was open. So, there are a lot of mixed messages coming from the regime right now. So, I had originally thought it was closed, and I guess so and then I also heard that there were some like J.D. Vance had canceled an event because of this, but I guess that report might not be even accurate either. What do we think of these mixed messages that are coming out? It's They can't They're not unified on anything right now, which is good for us, but I've seen that ship traffic has actually started to go down again, or they're trying to rush in case something were to happen because of what's going on in Lebanon. So, I just wanted to see what your intake on this was.

[00:01:13]>> So, this is not new, right? We're used to the Islamic Republic giving mixed messages because they have different audiences. That's what we have been dealing with all of this time, right?

[00:01:24]So, we need one message for the Americans, one message for the pro-regime Iranians, one message for the pro-deal camp, one message for the one message for the pro-pro-deal pro-regime Iranians, another message for the anti-deal pro-regime Iranians, right? So, you have different segments.

[00:01:45]Different segments of IRGC would have their framing of it. Different segments of the pro-deal camp would have their framing of it. People associated with the supreme leadership, the religious vocalists would have their framing of it. So, to simplify it is pretty understandable for why it would be good like look at this like we had so many people coming out and saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

[00:02:10]Now, it seems like it again I have to be verified is it seems like the source of that information has been the Islamic Republic, right?

[00:02:20]Which is another really good source, right?

[00:02:23]But even we have to sit still wait for more confirmation and more better sources for this.

[00:02:31]But given how the Islamic Republic putting that information out there managed to even convince some non- Iranians that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Obviously, whoever put that message out there is going to be able to convince many pro-regime anti-deal Iranians that was a true story, right?

[00:02:50]So, the effect why would they put that out there? Because so many pro-regime anti-deal Iranians are frustrated with the MOU. So, putting that message out there is for them to be like guys don't worry these Americans we're doing whatever we want. They're removing their blockade. We're closing the Strait of Hormuz. So, many pro-regime Iranians might go be less frustrated right now because they think this is good.

[00:03:17]We humiliated the Americans. They're removing their blockade. We're keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed which shows that we have the upper hand.

[00:03:25]That's probably why they're putting that message out there to satisfy their own followers. Does that make sense?

[00:03:33]>> Yeah, it does. Thanks, Arman.

[00:03:36]>> I thank you.

[00:03:39]>> Uh can I have a response from Sketch?

[00:03:43]>> Yes, I would also caution that we saw before Arman showed us like different newspapers in Iran have different factions. So, when we say they have different messaging, it's that they have whole structures and we do this, too.

[00:03:57]We'll have more conservative leaning newspapers that will have one headline, and we will have more aggressively leaning newspapers that will have a different headline talking about the exact exact same topic, two completely different takes from it. I think all governments do this. It may be more cognitively dissonant thing, whatever the word you would say that. It may have more cognitive dissonance when you look at it, these things are like they can't They're not even close, but it does happen over there. So, just try to think of it as the difference between taking a news from the IRGC news from their left, their right, and whatever is their center, right? You got to understand which paper put this out because I bet that headline, if you Armin could just read the head You read the headline, and Armin could tell you, "Yeah, that probably came out of this newspaper." Or something like that. Am I right?

[00:04:51]>> Yeah.

[00:04:52]Yes, and it's actually very complicated because even within each segment, there are like people like, "Oh, this is IRGC affiliated." But the interesting part is, okay, which part of the IRGC, right?

[00:05:04]Because even and even within these like within the Pahlavi camp, there are different groups within the Pahlavi camp that are not do not always see eye to eye. So, it's actually And I and I There are some people within my team on the Persian channel that are that are even more informed about this than even I am. That they come and Armin, this is this newspaper is Pahlavi camp, but this part of Pahlavi camp. I'm like, "Holy you guys." This is why I always rely on my team sometimes because they have a lot more detailed information sometimes.

[00:05:35]But yeah, that's true.

[00:05:39]>> All right, and another response from Sophie.

[00:05:44]>> Sophie.

[00:05:48]>> I don't Look, I didn't want to speak.

[00:05:50]I'm just trying to put things in chat, but if people aren't reading it, that's fine. It's not about a headline. It's not about a spin or a narrative or framing at all from New York Post. They clearly presented two real things that happened with real quotes. So, the IRGC did go in maritime and radio message to all vessels, and then you also had Esmail Baghaei for the foreign ministry also stating the opposite. So, both things occurred. All the New York Post article did was present both things happening. One sequentially after the other. So, just factions fighting with each other, but in this instance, it's not about media spin or narratives or whatever.

[00:06:31]>> Okay, so that's true. The thing is that getting that saying So, what people were saying, I'm not talking about that article, whether that was accurate or not, but people were saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed, right? So, getting that message doesn't necessarily mean it's completely closed. It shows that it's not completely open, but it also doesn't suggest that it's completely it's closed.

[00:06:55]>> They actually said over maritime radio that it was closed. That makes it closed when people when vessels don't want to be fired upon by the IRGC.

[00:07:04]Anyway, I'm out. I just I understood the situation. Was just trying to be helpful.

[00:07:08]I don't really want to speak.

[00:07:10]>> I think it's more of a spectrum, right?

[00:07:12]If you get a radio message and no action behind it, then it's less closed. And if you get Because again, remember guys, the IRGC has different segments, and they do not agree with each other. There are parts of the IRGC that are trying to make the MOU happen. There are parts of the IRGC that are trying to make sure that the MOU does not happen. So, there are some parts of the IRGC they think there's I'm pretty sure the parts of the IRGC that wants the war you to happen is stopping the other parts of the IRGC from shooting drones and missiles at commercial ships. But that's easier to stop than somebody just getting on the radio like guys, okay, we do we don't they're not letting us shoot drones and missiles. But I could just pick up a radio and get on the right frequency and just call contact these ships and be like, "Stop." And somebody who's like and if I'm like a bigger part of the IRGC, I could be like, "Who's messaging this ship? Stop these people from contacting these ships."

[00:08:15]And that's harder to stop than somebody who's if you if you need a missile to shoot at a ship, then the people in the IRGC who have not how now have the upper hand, they could take away your missiles. They're like, "We're not going to give you any missiles to shoot at ships or drones, right?" But it's really hard to go around and basically stop every single IRGC commander to just from contacting these ships and tell them to turn around. So, it is also possible for that maybe somebody like Qalibaf is telling President Trump, "Listen, I'm trying my best here. Don't kill me, please. I'm stop I'm like I've already managed to get people not shoot drones and missiles, but it's really hard for me to go hunt down every single person that is is contacting these ships with a with with radio. So, just tell these ships to ignore the message or something like that. I don't know. That could be what's happening.

[00:09:07]Hey, just tell them just go. If somebody contacts you, tell them to to stop. Just just ignore them. I don't know. That could also be what's happening. But there's it's a spectrum. There's a lot of things in between. So, there's a lot of things in between fully closed and fully open.

[00:09:21]>> So, if you were if you were one of those boats and you got a message on the radio like that but they're going to get missiles shot at you, would you just follow Trump's directions to ignore that message or >> I wouldn't, but But depends. Have I been stuck in the Persian Gulf for 2 months? I don't want to go see my I don't want to go see my wife and I've seen 10 other ships go through with with the warning and nothing happened to them.

[00:09:47]I might be like, let's Leeroy Leeroy Jenkins that.

[00:09:50]>> [laughter] >> Depends on the strength of the captain's marriage.

[00:09:54]>> Yeah, exactly. It depends how much I miss my wife.

[00:09:58]>> Okay, one more response from Jose.

[00:10:03]>> Okay, they got that message. The captain had two choices.

[00:10:07]Okay?

[00:10:08]Stop.

[00:10:10]Choice one. Choice two, keep on going and see if a missile would be launched at them.

[00:10:16]Now, if they kept on going if the ships kept on going and no missiles were launched at them, then there was no blockade.

[00:10:24]If they did stop, then for as long as they stopped, it was a blockade.

[00:10:29]There's only two ways it's going to happen. Those are billion-dollar ships without the fuel and armament.

[00:10:34]And no captain is going to piss off his boss like that.

[00:10:38]>> Yeah, I was thinking maybe about the bus. Yeah.

[00:10:42]Yeah, but the thing is that we are seeing ships go through, so it would be interesting to see if they got the warning and went through or not. We'll see.

[00:10:50]I I do understand that the these commercial ships are very risk-averse and I'm pretty sure Sketch is going to remind us about the insurance costs now.

[00:11:00]But yeah, go on, Sketch.

[00:11:01]>> I wasn't, but that's a very good point.

[00:11:03]So, thank you for reminding everyone about the insurance costs because doesn't matter how much it opens. If no one's going to insure it, no one's going in. Now, I just want to say that in the first paragraph, paragraph, it says, "Armed forces of Iran are signing the MOU, blah, blah, blah." And this is according to Iran's Fars News Agency.

[00:11:22]That's what I'm referring to when I'm talking about the news agency that maybe one side, the part about the warning that came through the radio is not from a news agency, but right on the New York Post on the article it says according to Iran's Fars news agency. And Armin, maybe you would like to tell us does Fars have a slant?

[00:11:42]>> Yeah, Fars is IRGC affiliated. That's one of the main two. Tasnim and Fars are IRGC affiliated. Is that your question?

[00:11:53]>> No, I just wanted to point that out that I'm trying my best to be correct about what I'm reading here. I'm not trying to disinform anyone. I believe that is I'm not sure that's why I was asking you that is an Iranian news agency and that's what I was talking about when I was referring to there being slant. So we got to understand. They'll say one thing and then another news agency will say another thing. So we don't know how open it is.

[00:12:14]>> So the I So Raja Raja So it's interesting because IRGC affiliated news sources are very hard hardline like people say hardline, but they're more they would be more motivated to show that things are going in the direction of Islamic Republic and Islamic Republic is winning this, right?

[00:12:34]However, Raja news, which is more paidoria affiliated, they're also very hardliner like very considered like to be hardliners even though they're all of them are hardliner.

[00:12:43]But they would be more motivated to show that things are not going the way for the Islamic Republic because they're against the MOU.

[00:12:54]Yes, this is >> Okay, and Anah has the next response.

[00:13:01]>> So yeah, I wasn't trying to be and I'm not going to apologize Armin. So you don't have to worry about that, but at the time I thought I was it did when I first heard the IRGC message that the straight was closed. That's what I went off at first. But then later on as I was trying to pull my article it it had gotten buried and then I saw this one from the New York Post which is it. But, I will say in the last portion of it, it says that the MOU requires all ships to get a permit from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is what the regime set up so they could control the strait.

[00:13:44]So, I don't know if they're going to even follow that or just ignore it. So, So, they yeah, they set up a They set up a website, right? They set up a website where people could should go to and register with the IRGC before they go through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:14:05]And the And right now, they're not charging anybody anything, but they're saying that you have to get permission from us before you go through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:14:14]Right? So, that's a They're building that mechanism there, that digital mechanism.

[00:14:20]And they're sell They're selling this to regime supporters and guys, look, we're building the infrastructure so uh when the Americans leave, we already have the infrastructure for them to collect tolls after this.

[00:14:34]So, we're like right now it's only permission-based, but now once once we get everybody used to getting permission from us to go through the Strait of Hormuz, once that is set as a thing that everybody has to do, then the same platform will then ask them, "Okay, now the permission comes with you having to pay the toll."

[00:14:54]We're basically moving up slowly.

[00:14:56]First, everybody permission, and now we have a system, and now the permission will only be given once you pay.

[00:15:02]Probably on that system. That's what they're doing.

[00:15:06]And I don't know I'm not saying they will be successful, but in the meantime, this will be sellable to regime supporters who are upset that okay, this is good. We're moving in the right direction.

[00:15:19]By the way, this would be devastating for internet all international waterways because if the Islamic Republic is ever successful at this, they would become it would be the first president that natural waterways are also okay for collecting tolls. So, other countries around natural waterways will be like, "Okay, then if the if this is now the new international norm, we're going to do it as well." So, this is going to be bad.

[00:15:45]But anyways, who's next?

[00:15:48]Oh, it's so cute. Look at that little dog.

[00:15:50]>> that's a trick.

[00:15:50]>> Wait.

[00:15:51]This pan Danny with his dog calling.

[00:15:53]Yeah, look at that.

[00:15:56]Oh, so cute. So cute.

[00:15:58]>> Super chats >> Very lucky dog.

[00:16:00]Who's next?

[00:16:02]>> Super chats >> Oh, super chats. Oh my god.

[00:16:05]Oh my god, we I have eight. Okay, thank you guys and we also reached our goal already. Shana is saying there are moderates in the Democratic Party, but they don't get the airtime. I still disagree with them, but they're relatively sane. Comparatively, and she puts comparatively in all caps.

[00:16:26]Thank you, Shana. Thank you for the reminder to people that there are some sane John Fetterman everybody every time in the Democratic. He's very sane.

[00:16:35]And thank you. And Fleshy and guys is telling you about the one thing that shows you how bad the Democratic Party is that every time I want to mention a person that is sane there, I only have one example. I can't think of any.

[00:16:46]>> [laughter] >> There's no other examples.

[00:16:49]Okay. So, Fleshy and Teleper with the super chat saying numbers say straight 20% open compared to See, okay, that makes sense if that's the case because I told you guys it's a spectrum. It's not on or off if that's true.

[00:17:05]Based on Fleshy is crunching the numbers. Fleshy is following the ships.

[00:17:09]You know how we have Cat Meowski watching birds, watching planes, Fleshy and Teleper is watching tankers and crunching the numbers, right? So, he's That's what his assessment says.

[00:17:20]And they're saying needs to be sufficient to the person also saying needs to be 50% open to clear backlog in a few weeks, ignoring normal traffic.

[00:17:29]Holy Flisintolper does really interesting analysis. Okay, I'm going to pay more attention to that. But, it's now at 20%. Okay. And Jahangir, who's also here with us, which is Ramins in the chat in the group discussion, just gave us super chat saying, "What is the topic?" The topic is the Strait of Hormuz being closed or open.

[00:17:48]And Jahangir became a member. Welcome, one of us. One of us. Okay. So, he became a member of our group. Thank you so much, Jahangir. And Jahangir also with a super chat saying, "Leeroy Jenkins."

[00:18:03]And with a heart emoji at the end of it.

[00:18:06]And then four four more super chats.

[00:18:08]Flisintolper with a super chat saying, "I'll stop talking about boats now. Not that Flisintolper, that was actually very good information. Thank you Thank you for Thank you for sharing.

[00:18:17]And also giving us a super chat saying, "Scotland the Brave." Thank you for that super chat. And then also Jenkins So, no Jahangir. Jenkins. Jenkins.

[00:18:28]Give us a super chat saying, "Higher goals." Oh, you mean the 10 super chats?

[00:18:32]I think 10 is good. If I don't want to be greedy, but people do go above 10 often, but I don't want to be too greedy. 10 10 per 10 per stream is very sweet. Thank you, guys.

[00:18:43]My name is Armin Navabi. I'm an Iranian political analyst with decades of experience fighting the Islamic regime inside and outside of Iran. Make sure you follow me for more. And also make sure you join our discussion group. I'm there almost every single day. Come talk to me there and the rest of the people there in our group calls. It's a great place to meet and talk to people who like talking about politics. The link is in the description and or in the bio.

[00:19:09]You could also get there by scanning the QR code on the screen. See you there.