UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned after a leadership challenge, with Andy Burnham set to succeed him; this transition highlights how political leadership changes can be driven by public perception gaps between government achievements and media narratives, particularly when social media algorithms and mainstream media create structural biases against certain political perspectives.
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BREAKING LIVE: UK PM Starmer Resigns -W hat Next?
Added:Hello team. Welcome to another ATP Geopolitics video with myself Jonathan MS Pierce. This is a UK political update. It's a breaking news update.
It's not new. You know the news, right?
Karma has resigned as British prime minister. This is my stream of consciousness with a couple of tabs thrown in to keep me on course uh and give me some stimulus to talk about.
basically my stream of consciousness evaluation as to what has happened, why it's happened, and where we go or where the UK government goes from here. As you know, I am a center-left kind of guy.
I'm broadly economically centrist. I'm not particularly uh adherent to any particular party. My voting record is all over the shop. It's usually anyone but the Tories, but now it's kind of anyone but reform. Uh that's my my position just because I I want to lay out my biases in case you don't know me straight off here. But I I try and justify my uh positioning with at least some kind of evidence or substantiation and uh I'll try and do that with my claims today and my evaluation today. So I'm not really like died in the wall labor guy. I I I voted do you know what?
I can't even remember. I think I voted Labor this time. What I do is I look at my local constituency and I vote in accordance with who's most likely to win. Uh and I vote tactically. So it might be Lib Dems. I I variously vote Lib Dems, Labor or or Green, although more recently I haven't voted Green. Uh mainly because they they've definitely got no chance of winning in this area.
And actually more recently, I don't agree with the Greens policies on say NATO and foreign diplomacy where they had changed their course and now they seem to be reverting back to more of a populist uh approach there. But anyway, that's by the buy. So that's that's where I am. Um although I've become more uh I don't think conservatives are right. I'm just nuanced. So on foreign policy, I'm a big supporter of NATO and a big supporter of defense spending. But I also understand that defense spending has to come from somewhere. And with a Labor government, that's usually going to be an attack on the welfare system unless you're generating money from other places. Uh and of course they want to grow the economy to generate extra tax income. But in the absence of of huge growth in the economy, then you've got to raid somewhere to pay for defense. And how do you do that? And I understand that there are difficult questions there for and a bit of dilemma for Labor supporters who believe in um a greater defense expenditure but also uh a solid welfare state etc etc. Okay. Um so that's kind of who I am. Um but I'm no ma massive like cheerleader for Star. I sounded like I've been recently because I want sensible centism and I don't want a change of leader and so I'm like backing the guy because actually he's doing a really good job internationally I think and we'll come on to this with the reactions coming from international uh leaders. He's done a good job internationally. He's put the UK back on the diplomatic scene and he's done a good job for Ukraine. Right. So I'm like changing the leader is is just not going to be good for actually for a lot of domestic stuff as well as for uh Ukraine. etc., etc., but I think the writing was on the wall. Why was the writing on the wall? Because the um the polls were pretty damned clear. Uh so if we look at this, for example, 19% of Britain say they would be more likely to vote Labor if Bern Andy Bernham was prime minister. So if you're looking and we're going to look at what Kama said in his residation speech. If you look at what he said and what the reality was like if the government was going to have a hope of winning the next election, Karmama wasn't electable. Now, my issue with this whole leadership, event, shenanigans, whatever you want to call it, contest, scandal, controversy, uh, change of power, whatever you want to call it. My issue is that it's unfair because there's a I think a difference between perception and reality. And I think Karma's record has been somewhat uh manipulated by nefarious both state actors and non-state actors in terms of messing with his perception. So that he's like hated by 17% of the population. Like almost one in five people hate him. I I find that extraordinary. And a lot of those people are very loud on the internet. So I think social media has really changed the perception of um Karma to be very very different from the reality and and I think that has driven this desire to change. I think it drove much of the uh the voting in the local elections recently which is what brought this about. So this all came about from a disastrous local elections for Labor.
Although it wasn't as positive for reform as it was originally thought it was going to be. It was disastrous for the Conservatives as well. A and I think you had a knee-jerk reaction and like right we need to get rid of Kama. But the the basis of those votes was I think a distortion of perception from reality.
And I'm going to give you an anecdote that I've experienced today right today.
Like my in-laws came around who are died in the world conservatives. I'm not married but my partner's parents get on super well with them. Lovely lovely people. Super conservative. um would probably vote reform had I had they not had such a negative view of Nigel Farage as an individual partly probably from me rubbing off on them and they came around and without prompting from me they said what do you think about Kistan blah blah blah and they said look we think it's sort of unfair and it's a shame I'm like hang on so this is really interesting so now you've got this scenario where you would denigrate him otherwise but then you're like he's a decent and he's a good man.
Uh he's a normal guy. Um and we think it's unfair. So that's interesting. So I thought, well, that's wow. Then I listed a bunch of stuff that the Labor government has achieved. And they're like, we didn't know any of this and even though I have actually said many of these before to them, but they're like, okay, so this is interesting. So here we have um people who previously denigrated uh Kstarma who are now saying oh this is a shame actually he's a decent human he's a decent guy and I didn't know any of these successes and that to me that conversation encapsulated the whole issue here which is and I said to my pet my parents not my in-laws the other day I had the exact same conversation and my mom was like I didn't know any of this stuff that they had achieved. I didn't know that that you had had these successes. So the problem that Labour has is that they are completely unable or you know haven't put things in place to be able to sell their narrative to be able to sell their successes so that no one knows their successes. So you have this, you know, perpetual problem whereby um people are getting their information from these online sources or from mainstream media that I think structurally skews against a Labor government. And so therefore, that is a problem that whoever replaces uh Kia Starman, it's almost certainly going to be Andy Bernham, will have to deal with. if you don't control the media narrative. I don't mean control the media, although I do think there were regulations. So, I was reading one analysis that says on on the one hand, Karma is um the victim of a pretty horrific online uh setup, you know, social media setup. Elon Musk, you know, algorithmically, ideologically against uh Karma and the present government. And you've got similar sort of with Zuckerberg and and whatnot and and meta algorithmically does not u support the center or the center left and uh so one person was saying look on the one hand I I do um understand that what's happened here is largely as a result of this but on the other hand Karma and Lisa Nandandy the culture sector media and culture se uh secretary did nothing about it. Like there was no hammering GB news on account of them breaking I think you know regulatory frameworks. There there is no using their position to do something you know their large governmental mandate to do something about the skewed media system that is I think deeply problematic and allows disinformation to propagate. You know why? But then of course we know why Twitter hasn't been regulated because you start trying to regulate places like Twitter. Then Donald Trump's going to come along and say you do that then we're going to slap uh 25% tariffs on pharmaceuticals or whatever. Right? And and and this is the problem that the government is in. But they need to solve that. Andy Burnham if he doesn't come in and solve that then then you know he's going to end up being in the same position himself. Anyway, to go back to where I was, like 19% of Britain say they would be more likely to vote Labor if Andy Bernham was prime minister. And this this is data that Star would have been looking at and saying right like the parliamentary Labor Party is there's enough people against me now and there's enough people in in the popul populace that clearly see Andy Bernham as being a better chance for the Labour Party to win the next election. And if I am putting my uh the party and the government before myself, which is I think something that Kama does. I think he is a public servant. He's always been a public servant. He would then look at this and say then I'm obliged to step aside. Uh I might be super angry about this. I might think it's unfair. Uh but I'm going to have to do it. And I think that's what you've seen happen.
And in fact, this is this is his speech that we will look at a little bit here.
with number 10 staff. Obviously, he's going to have all his own aids and peeps there giving him a bit of a boost.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Walking up this street two years ago was the proudest moment of my life. A new Labor government. The first in 14 years.
A page in our country's history turned after years of disappointment and despair. The chance to change the lives of millions of people for the better.
That's what I came into politics for.
The journey to that point was not easy.
Six years ago, I inherited a Labor party that was politically, financially, and morally bankrupt.
I was told time and time again that my party was finished, that we were consigned to history, that a majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority, was impossible.
But we proved those people wrong because we changed our party. ripping out the poison of anti-semitism, restoring trust on the economy, defense, and national security.
>> I think the way you can translate that is that he's moved the Labor Party from the left of Jeremy Corbyn to the center and they've become more of a centrist party. Now, the people on the left are going to hate that. And so, you have that leftist group. Really, that's what was underwriting part of of what happened. So, I can complain about mainstream media and social media. Um, and uh, you know, f foolish positions like this from skirt. It sounds like you don't like free speech. Um, I like correct spelling. Uh, I do. I do like free speech. I've done whole videos on this. If you want to see my u philosophical approach to the issues uh, and of the that that are concerned with the discussions alone of free speech, then please do so. Um, what I don't like is if you think free speech is Elon Musk controlling a massive platform, shutting down people that he disagrees with after saying that he is a free speech uh absolutist and then algorithmically changing the code changing the coding so that algorithmically it supports the right at a rate of two to one in ratio terms as according to in investigations by um Sky News uh by um the Germans as and an American investigation. All three have shown that that it skews. Then I'm like, I find it problematic that you have um undisclosed skewing from someone who claims to be a free speech ab absolutist. That is the exact opposite of free speech absolutism. And in fact he doesn't allow speech that that criticizes him or uh he amplifies speech that aligns with his own viewpoints and etc etc etc. So therefore, you know, as a as a platform, it just becomes a propaganda network, right? And that's what I have a problem with and and partly is why we have uh issues with mainstream media. And I think is the same uh with Meta to some degree. And when you have, you know, Zuckerberg, Tim Cook from Apple, uh Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Elon Musk paid the Republican party what $288 million. Uh, and you have Jeff Bezel, all of those paid into the inauguration. Uh, Jeff Bezos paid 40 million for Melania Trump's documentary uh, rights. You've got people controlling these platforms paying off Donald Trump for an as an example, showing you that there's a massive alignment. And then you've got Trump controlling say CBS and now soon CNN, so on and so forth. We have a skewed mainstream media and uh social media landscape that needs to be confronted.
That is an issue whereby you you have um uh structural biases that that use huge amounts of money uh to go on a huge amounts of influence and and then to to use that influence I think manipulatively. Uh, and I think that is a a problem anyway to continue >> and becoming a party that once again stood proudly with not against our national flag.
The hard work of change was with a singular purpose.
Not power for power's sake, but to change Britain for the better. to build a fairer country with dignity and respect where everyone is seen, everyone is valued, wealth and opportunity for all, not just the privileged few.
If you're from outside of the UK and you're wondering why there's music playing in the background because there's a guy called Steve Bray, I think he is, who sits at the end of uh Downing Street in the public area and he often sits in at Westminster. He's behind uh people being interviewed uh for news channels and he's a massive pro-EU guy and he just flies lots of EU flags and plays music. And here is a note to joy because he thinks, for example, Star hasn't done a good enough job of trying to rejoin the EU. So if you're wondering what that is, that's his kind of um input. And look at what we've achieved in just two years.
An economy that is stronger, growing faster than our peers, wages rising faster than inflation in every single month since we came to power. Investment secured, infrastructure being built, an end to austerity with the fastest fall in NHS waiting lists for 17 years, the biggest improvement in rights for workers and renters in a generation. The biggest uplift in defense spending since the Cold War. Small boat crossings falling. Asylum hotels closing.
protecting young people from social media and half a million children being lifted out of poverty because of the choices that I made.
Our reputation in the >> and interestingly that's the only time in a speech he he goes for the I thing.
The rest of the time it's kind of we and and the Labour party. So that I think that's him saying look I've made some decisions that resulted in successes and I'm not getting the plaudits for it. Um, so that's this part of the speech.
>> World restored with Britain once again standing up for decency, respect, and the rule of law. Securing trade deals, standing with Ukraine, standing up for our values, and rebuilding our relationship with our allies in Europe.
Change promised by a Labor government.
Change fought for by a Labor government.
change delivered by a Labor government.
But I know the question being asked now is not who was best placed to change the Labor Party, to take us into power, and to begin the vital work of improving lives for millions of people.
Those questions have been answered.
The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election.
>> So that's the reference now to like the statistics, the polling and and the parliamentary Labour party MPs just saying look we think that we've got the best chance with someone else taking us into the general election. Now, the question for Stalman was always going to be, do I take us in up to the general election and then resign just before the general election and give someone else a chance or do I do that now and give someone a crack of the whip for the next three years to then take us into the next general election and he's opted for the latter. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question and I accept that answer with good grace.
Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first.
That is why I will resign as leader of the Labor Party.
I have spoken to His Majesty the King this morning to inform him of my decision.
I will ask the National Executive Committee of the Labor Party to set out a timetable with nominations opening on the 9th of July and completed by the summer recess.
>> Okay. Why this is important is it sets out a timetable. So the 9th of July then there'll be you know you can campaign have your contest before the summer recess and it'll all be wrapped up by the time uh parliament starts in the autumn.
So it depends whether anyone is going to contest Andy Burnham. And now we hear that the big one who who resigned first, West Streeting, the former health secretary who was going to run, has now decided he's probably looked at the stats. He's looked at uh how many MPs he would get to support him and has seen the writing on the wall that Andy Bernham would easily beat West Streeting. Uh and so he has now said that he supports Andy Burnham for leader which is also probably West Streeting saying please give me a major cabinet position. Um as I've stepped aside and allowed you to do that probably come to some kind of agreement with Andy Bernham.
>> In the case of a contest this will ensure a new leader is in place before parliament returns in September.
I will remain in post as prime minister until the contest is complete and I will do everything I can to ensure an orderly handover of power.
I will also give my successor my full and unequivocal support knowing that they will inherit a Britain that is far stronger and fairer than the one I inherited two years ago by the Okay, so this is interesting because he's saying I will give them my full unequivocal support which is there is no space there for him to to not do you know he's being very explicit.
So the question that many people are asking is will he resign as an MP because it is going to be quite odd for him as a former prime minister then sit on the backbenches and see Andy Burnham in his position do the job that he thinks he should be doing and that you there there is one option that I think I would like to see which is Karma becomes foreign minister uh and I think that's pretty befitting for him and I think that would be really good job for him. But the question is, would Andy Burnham uh seek to have Starmmer on his cabinet knowing that that Star is going to be super angry about what Andy Bernham has done? And there will be a great deal of resentment there. So I I think it's unlikely that Kia Starmmer will become the foreign minister, but I think that would be the best uh outcome to be per to be perfectly honest.
>> Prepared for the challenges ahead and better able to ensure the Labor Party secures a second term in office.
I want to thank all of those friends and colleagues who have been at my side for these past six years or so for their incredible commitment, service, and support.
I want to thank the brilliant number 10 staff and our country's extraordinary civil service who dedicate their lives to public service.
And when I leave the biggest job in the country, I shall spend more time on the most important job. Being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife Vic, who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad. And being the best dad I can, to my beautiful children, who are my pride and my joy.
Thank you very much.
So uh that was his speech and uh so for example Paul Paul here saying saying damped squib of a speech. I I disagree.
I think the speech did uh did everything it needed to do, which is say, "Look, here are my successes. I understand that I I'm not the person that you guys think either in a parliamentary party or maybe beyond that can lead us to victory next time. So, I'm going to stand aside. I'm going to set out a timetable and I'm going to support whoever replaces me and I'm going to do this all with dignity and the speech will be dignified." And so you like it's not going to, you know, this speech isn't going to be be like groundbreaking, earthshattering speech, but it does exactly what it needed to do if your primary objective is not to cause chaos. So he wants a bond market uh to be to be um settled. He wants the pound to be settled. He wants uh people to just think right there's going to be an orderly transition. So, as much as possible, you know, there's not going to be a big fight. Star is not going to stand up and have a bun fight. This is him saying, "Okay, you guys go for it, and I'll support whoever the leader is."
Like, I think this does a job by being an understated uh speech that is dignified and shows that he is putting the country first. So, I I actually, yeah, you might think it's a Dan Scriven speech, but I I don't anything else would have been too chaotic and too problematic for the country. So I think actually the speeches has done done a job. Okay. So you know we've looked at the fact it was clear that I think it's unfair but then on the other hand I think you know he had to go because perception is reality and if people really think that he's as terrible a leader as he is then that's a problem that needs to be dealt with and and the only way to deal with that like I don't think he's going to win back the country. I don't think he ever really won the country because he's not this big charismatic leader. Andy Bernham does have more charisma and will have the ability to speak to the country. Uh we'll look at where he may differ in policy a little bit later. Uh but I think you know as as much I think it's unfair the the uh mischaracterization of the uh of the um government like the real politics suggests that there was no other real option here. Now on the on the one hand you can say look Karma has and his government have achieved loads.
Here's a list of a hundred things that they have achieved. I know that Alistister Stewart and Rory uh Alistister Campbell was dipping into this list and saying look there are load of things like settle settled loads of disputes uh that were that they inherited from the previous government in terms of doctors transport um they part nationalized some railways. They've increased NHS funding, cut NHS waiting times, you know, slashed net migration by 82%, cut um small boat figures, cut uh or they've increased um processing of asylum seekers. They have uh got you know special needs funding has massively uh I think improved um or at least somewhat improved. Uh they've got great British energy sort of coming online. they they are trying to get us more resilient in terms of energy security through renewables. They are um so on and so forth. You know, all of these things inflation controlled, unemployment controlled, GDP uh broadly improved every month um since since they've been in power, give or take. Uh and then so on and so forth. So all of these metrics um actually are pretty decent, especially considering Donald Trump has taken us and every other country in the world into his war against Iran in terms of the effect of uh you know inflation and you know it's amazing actually that that the UK has not had huge inflation for the last two months right now. Is that something the government has done? You can argue whether that is government policy or not, but you know, our statistics are looking fairly good. We've been fairly uh consistently solid economically since Labor came in. It hasn't been a disaster. has been broadly positive and there are loads of successes that the Labor government can you know the employment rights act for example um funding of defense they would argue uh although you know you can argue over the finer details there so so then the question is well okay if you have had these successes and I go back to the anecdote of my parents and my in-laws it's like well if you don't know about this like there's your problem if the if the public don't know about this there's your problem like again Bernham will have to come in and know how to sell his successes the successes of the government and if they don't do that you're going to get to the same position again and this is all about social media and mainstream media because if your message can't get through because of structural challenges in social media and mainstream media then uh which is just going to be returning to the same old problems. Um, and this is kind of what I was talking about. Here is one source saying, "Look, a democratically elected British prime minister has been driven from office by a relentless campaign of propaganda and misinformation, funded, amplified, and perpetuated by foreign foreign billionaires and elites whose interest bears zero resemblance to those ordinary working people. A noble gesture from an emotional karma, entirely consistent with his compact in office. A truly sad day for British democracy." His full resignation speech is there. Okay. And I somewhat I broadly agree with this position uh and the saying this issue isn't the issue isn't stmer per se. It's a fact that we all now know whoever is PM unless it's some farright leader with friendly tax policies for the ultra wealthy. They will be met by a barrage of misinformation and relentless online attacks. Accusations they support pedophiles and rapists. they that they jail 12,000 innocent people every year for tweeting and all the usual misleading manipulative BS designed to exploit people's emotions. This won't stop until they have installed the party they want. A party that will be focused on purely on optimizing the affairs of its wealthy backers and not the working people and families of Britain. that that that okay so honestly that's the biggest takeaway from this that if the present government don't get on top of uh controlling the narrative then it is just this is all been this all would have been for nothing all would have been for nothing now Kevin Scoffield here says a senior Labour sources said quote Bernham has started a coup against K and then demanded Kia slowed down the coup until such time as Andy knows what he's doing so there is this idea that that yeah, he wants he wants power, but okay, just not not right now because I haven't sorted out what the hell I'm doing and what my policies are and who my team is going to be. Uh and and so, you know, there's this idea that Karma is just going to have to be, you know, um jumping to the tune, dancing to the tune of Andy Burnham and his time scale, uh which seems somewhat um I guess it'll be very distasteful for Karma. Now, one of the big things I want to say is that where Kislama has done well is in international politics and diplomacy and Britain's standing in Europe and beyond.
And there is no doubt that he has done this. You may not like Karma and you may want to denigrate him at every conceivable opportunity. And I know people like my in-laws will say, "Well, he's never here. He's always abroad."
Yeah. Because we need our leader to be presenting our interests to be furthering our interests abroad because you know if we we can talk about generating money domestically but really we want inward investment to get money.
If you want growth in the economy, you know, especially in the post-rexit years, then we are going to need to attract an awful lot of inward investment and you need to be putting your best foot forward outside of the borders and Karma arguably has done that and actually I I think has definitely done that because if you look at the reactions of international leaders, it is very very clear. So I think Ursula Vander Lion here is you know and he's popping I'd agree he is a fantastic statesman abroad. PE people may denigrate him at home but I watch him all the time and I see the respect that he has garnered abroad because I report on it. Uh and and and here is the evidence of this uh line. It can take many leaders to grow into the statesman you became in just two years. European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you. Interestingly, she's putting Europe and Ukraine and saying you because of you, Karma, European and Ukrainian security is stronger. So, he has done things uh un under the radar in terms of European security that probably many people don't know or or the or the British government has under his tenure.
He says, she says, "Thank you, dear K."
Um, to which Alex Taylor says, "Look, this kind of statement from an EU leader would have been unthinkable about all the other PMs the UK's uh flitted through since taking back control since Brexit. It doesn't get much mention in the UK, but boring Starman made the UK look reliable and serious again after the Crown show before him." Now, okay, obviously this guy's not a fan of the Conservatives beforehand, but his success, I think, has been most obvious to me on the international stage. So here we've got Antonelloo Guerrera who's a correspondent for I think La Republica in Italy. The highest recognition and praise that Kstama will get today from the EU and the international partners.
As a PM Stalmer will be greatly missed across the continent and that that basically is one of my biggest sort of takeaways for this video for you.
Antonio Costa from the EU the EU uh co-president says under your premiership Kstan we turned a new page in the EU UK relations. The EU is committed to continued cooperation in this spirit. It has been a pleasure to work with you as a colleague and a friend. Thank you, dear Kia. So, there's a load of ringing endorsements internationally. Um Sophie Ped has said, so she's a French um Paris bureau chief at the Economist. Uh so she says Star's departure will be seen in Paris as a loss. On his watch, the UK has become a reliable, trusted, and constructive partner for France. On Ukraine, nuclear deterrence and more.
the next prime minister will have his work cut out earning the same respect.
And this is one of the reasons I didn't want Kama to go because I'm seeing I'm looking through a Ukraine and an internationalist lens. I'm not I'm less bothered with domestic stuff in the UK as I am with international stuff. That's the nature of this channel. And actually, I just can't see Andy Bernham being the sort of person that garers as much respect as Karma does internationally. I just think from a person, you know, Yeah. Islam as that boring diplomat kind of guy, but that's a guy we wanted for these international relations. I think Andy Bernham is more of a domestic guy. He's about nationalizing industry. He's about um devolution and all these other things that we'll come on to. Uh and that's why I would hope to see Kama as a foreign minister. I really do think that is is the right option, but it probably won't happen. Ed Davyy, the lead leader of the Lib Dems, has now come out and said he's reacting to Reuters reporting the EU reassesses whether to hold its July UK summit after the Star resignation announcement. This would be a disaster.
He said fixing our relationship with Europe is far too urgent to be postponed by Labour's leadership chaos.
And then you have uh Word Zalinski here with a picture of him hugging uh Kia Star saying, "Kia, thank you for all our cooperation, your support, and the joint decisions that have helped make our Europe and our protection of life stronger. The United Kingdom has been, is, and will remain among the world's leaders. Here in Ukraine, we deeply value Britain, and every meeting and every conversation we have had has always been filled with real substance.
Thank you for always being in touch, always engaged, and always striving to do what is needed and what will truly help. I wish the United Kingdom and all British people every success as well as realization of your national goals. We have confidence in Britain. Kia, you are always a welcome guest in Ukraine. That again really signifies and and the picture as well signifies what Kia Star has meant to Ukraine and has meant I think internationally and to uh to Europe particularly. But then you've got Anthony Albanesi uh a former kind of not former a a Labour colleague if you like as being the prime minister of Australia and and Labour party over there. I consider K star a friend and I'm thinking of him on what must be a very tough day. Serving in public life is a tremendous privilege but politics can also be a harsh business. When the time comes for K to leave Down Street he can be proud of the contribution he has made to the country he loves and to the Labour party that he led back to government in 2024. I'm grateful for the opportunities we had to work together to strengthen our orcus defense and security partnership, support the brave people of Ukraine, and keep children safe from the damage that social media can do. I wish Kia Victoria and their children well with everything the future holds. So again, there's this international feel of of respect for him and I think that is an area of success that many in the UK probably don't realize. They really probably don't realize it. Um so but he's going to have you know Andy Bernham will have to deal and I assume it's Andy Bernham because as you can see here West Streeting has has put his full support behind um endorsing Andy Bernham. So it's likely that K that Andy Bernham will get a coronation i.e. not a contest, not a bun fight. And it's a shame because actually I think there should be a contest for many reasons like rather than just like having Burnham installed a bit like Kla Harris, you know, there should many people saying there should have been a fight for who should replace Joe Biden, although it was done too late in Joe Biden's case and there was all sorts of issues there. But really, there should be a fight so that people know who Andy Bernham is, what his uh agenda is, what his manifesto would be. Uh, and anyone else that runs against him rather than just, well, by default is now going to be Andy Bernham who's going to be prime minister. So, so there is that. As things turn out, says Dan Hodges of I think the male um, yeah, mail on Sunday.
As things stand, Andy Bernham will take over as prime minister in three weeks time without a contest or a mandate or a settled team or a detailed 100 day strategy day strategy. Uh that's a challenging scenario to put it mildly.
So there are challenges for Andy Bernham. Now you know the issue for Karma was was one of approval of course but my my issue is this disastrous um falling off a cliff in approval ratings that to me is not natural. So that is spawned by I think uh a a completely corrosive social media and mainstream media landscape. That to me is is not organic. Right.
But there were some impossible situations with regard to say um winter fuel allowance. We're going to come in.
We're going to change we're going to reform welfare which is what everyone was asking for. Yeah. We spend too much on welfare. So they said we're going to change a winter fuel allowance. And everyone know you can't do that. You can't you can't take money for from you know pensioners away to help them with winter fuel allowance like yeah but we put in things we put things in place that means it's means tested so that that if you're really poor then you get that winter allowance still but you know for people who are super rich they don't need winter fuel allowance and and and yet they were shot down and so they had to do this Uturn on that which didn't really help them. Then of course you had Mandlesson which came a lot later. Uh so there were big big mistakes. I don't think they should have U-turned on winter fuel allance personally. Um and uh the Mandlesson thing was I think ill advised but you understand why they wanted him as this whisperer to Trump which is why it was supported by both reform and conservatives. Although after the whole Manson scandal came about you know blew up they were like ah you shouldn't have done it. It's like but you supported that. So anyway, there were mistakes. Of course there were. Um but but um I think that the decline in his popularity was inorganic. Uh but like I say, this is what the new leader is going to have to deal with. Um because I'm sure the press and the mainstream media will seek to put Andy Burnham in exactly the same position there. Right. Okay. So the then the big question is what does an Andy Burnham prime ministership look like? what does his what would his government likely advocate for? Um and here the Guardian a few days ago laid out a few of them and this is likely to happen. So as mayor of Manchester, so for those living outside the UK, don't know, Andy Bernham had to become an MP in order to challenge uh Karma. Uh he was a mayor of Manchester.
He used to be an MP. He challenged twice for leadership and failed both times against Jeremy Corbyn and uh and against was it actually karma himself? Um and so he failed and he went to become mayor of Manchester. Now he's come back to be coronated as king of the north as the new prime minister. So he as mayor of Manchester he was fairly popular. He's done a pretty good job. He did some things like nationalizing bus routes and the bus companies there and that was seen as a success and he's likely to want to privatize sorry nationalize utilities. For example, we uh privatized all our water companies and some of them are really struggling and there is also all all sorts of wastage and yet they still get um big bonuses and all sorts and TMS's water is one of these companies that many people want nationalized. In fact, nationalization in a narrow sense of like utilities like maybe um water companies and rail is broadly very popular even among conservatives. So even among conservatives I think 65% support for nationalization of you of key utilities.
Not mass nationalization of of like airlines and and telecoms and stuff like that. So actually it's very some people might not realize it but it's it's genuinely and generally very uh popular narrow nationalization and I think he would want to do that. But the problem is money. And this will be the problem for Andy Bernham and anyone taking over uh no matter what party you are actually is the government just doesn't have the money it needs. Now you need economic growth to to maybe lift some of that money. You might need to get closer to Europe. Andy Burnham and Europe is going to be a very sticky um area because he is fighting reform. reform are hard on of course not being anything to do with Europe and yet you're getting more and more data coming out every single day like the Bank of England had data yesterday to say 6% of our GDP or 6% of the economy has lost as a result of not being in in the EU Times business pages today the UK has lost 74 billion pounds in UK in goods exports since Brexit key sectors like cars pharmaceuticals and advanced manufacturing have been hit the hardest exporters say the new trade barriers have made things significantly harder. British food exports are down 22% which is worth 4 billion. Food is one of Britain's biggest losers. More red tape, lost EU markets and cheaper imports undercutting our farmers. 10 years on, the data continues to show a clear net loss, not the global trading powerhouse we were promised. Right? So, so as a pro-EU person, Andy Bernham is going to have to deal with knowing that reform are the biggest adversary now.
Does he pick that as the fight or does he try and attract some of those reform voters back to Labor by going hard on nationalization, cost of living support, um, devolution and stuff like that rather than going h hard on e getting in, you know, rejoining the EU. Now, just a couple I'll come back to these ideas in a second. Other things he's big on is devolution. as a mayor of Manchester, he believes that devolved power is good for the electorate and so he would want to devolve even more power away from me Westminster to possibly Wales, Northern London and Scotland, but certainly to mayors of regional areas.
He also wants less control of MPs and by this like he like the threeline party whip or or part party whips where you have to where you vote in parliament and you're whipped by um by the party whip to vote in line with what the government wants. Right? So it's say you've got 400 Labour MPs at the moment. There are certain things they definitely want to get across the line that are key um manifesto pledges or whatever and they will whip the party by saying you have to vote for this and if you don't vote for this there will be some kind of punishment or whatever or would got a little black book and we know or we don't you don't want that leaked to the newspapers or whatever. We know that previous governments have done stuff like this. He has he I think advocates for getting rid of the whipping system entirely. Now, he won't be able to do that because you will get complete chaos. If you allow every vote to be a vote of conscience for your party, you will have total chaos and you will struggle to get uh agenda policies across the line. So, there will need to be some kind of whipping situation going on. Uh but that there is one area where apparently he he wants there to be a change. Um and then oops, I don't know what I've done there. Sorry, things are popping up on my screen. And then votes reform. So this this is very interesting and I've talked about this previously.
He is a big advocate because as meril I think maril elections do have uh alternative vote system not first pass the post. So remember first pass of post is where whoever wins the most votes gets voted in. Even if it's only like 33% of the vote even if if no other party got more than you then you get in.
even though the majority of people in that constituency might not want you in.
It's called first pass of post but it's not very democratic and quite often you all the other votes are just thrown away as it's just pointless right whereas alternative voting systems might have a second you know preferential voting rank voting system all these different forms of voting system I think the Australian system is pretty decent um but you might so anyway there's an alternative voting system for mayors I think in in the UK he wants that he's likely to want proportional representation Now although you might think this will lead to a chaos of coalition building and whatnot, it's broadly what happens in most other countries around the world and actually when you look at how fractured the voting is in the UK now that we are now a pluralistic multi-party system, now is the time with with 400 with a massive majority in terms of MPs in parliament. Now's your time to get this get this done. I think this could be a thing that you see a and I will be excited about this because actually I think reform now are going to benefit from first party post where they used to advocate for um proportional representation because they've got to a critical mass actually when you get over a certain mass bigger parties uh they benefit from first pass post and smaller parties will always uh get done over by first pass post. For example, when they were UKIP previously, they got four million votes and no MPs. Which means that if you get like 10% of the vote in every single constituency, you can have 10% of the national vote, but zero MPs because you didn't get over the first pass of post. You didn't get past the post in any constituency. What that means is 10% of your population is not represented in parliament. So, it's a non-representative, I think, voting system. first pass the post although it does have advantages with localization and and other things. I don't want to get into a big debate about first pass but broadly speaking it's more representatives have an alternative vote system and this will lead to other smaller parties doing better and having their representation in parliament which is a good thing. I think otherwise those votes are just completely wasted uh and and the desires of the people are are not reflected in parliament. Um, I think you're going to see Andy Burnon push for this. That is going to be a major difference. I think Starman might have gone for that looking at the reading the tea leaves, but I think that's going to be a major one. So, for me though, one of the big questions is will karma stay on as MP or will he he um step down and go back to being a lawyer or or something else? Um, and I think uh I think that's going to be one to watch in a big way. Now, uh, the Alistister Campbell and Rory Stewart were talking about what does a an Andy Bernham government, if it is him, and assuming it is, what what are they going to look like like economically and policywise?
Uh, because there are some serious questions that need answering.
>> Standing by. Um listen, let's move on to let's move on to the thing that I want to get you on to though, which is we we've talked a lot about um theory, strategy, style, people skills. But I suppose the big question now is what's in the national interest and what are the really big calls that a future prime minister needs to make and how does Andy Burnham, let's assume it's Andy Burman, but it could be worth treating, but let's assume it's Andy Bernham.
>> No, it won't.
>> How does he think about these things?
And I I I've got some dilemas in my mind, right?
Does he return to the Rachel Reeves view, which as far as we can understand it is that they needed to cut things like winter fuel payments, uh concessions for farmers on inheritance, uh payments, uh for unemployment benefits because that was an important part of generating growth. Question one.
Question two, does he like Rachel Reeves and Kama believe that he really needs to stick to this ruling out any rises in income tax which forces you to do a lot of weird quite damaging.
>> Okay, so this is really important. When Labor came into power, they pledged not to change. They had these fiscal rules that they they weren't going to do this, they weren't going to do that, they're not going to raise income tax, they're not going to do this, not going to do that.
and they've bound themselves to that. I actually think they should have just broken those they should have made they made those pledges and said actually things are worse than we thought. We need to we need to be a bit funky because I I really don't think people would have m minded too much because most of the people in UK don't really understand fiscal rules and and what they were anyway. So like I personally think they should have done that but they they ad they have been adhering Rachel Reeds as chancellor Seka and Kama have been adhering to these very strict fiscal rules. I think Andy Burnham can come in and probably has scope to say uh yeah knackers to that. let's actually do some really big bold things and it might involve I don't know messing around with taxes or doing this and you might get an Andy Bernon government whereby they feel emboldened to break those fiscal rules >> taxes and borrow more money because you can't put income tax up >> and broadly speaking all of that stuff I think sits in a question about competitiveness winning back business and what kind of Labor party this is this a party that is about and I I look I agree Andy will resist this but sometimes there are things which feel like a choice between our priority is more equality and our priority is more growth and look obviously there's a third way idea that you can do both but we haven't had growth in this country really since 2008 and a lot of the problems in the country stem from that and I just don't know how radical he's going to be on the triple lock pension let me finish on this one is it actually plausible that the guy's going to come in and really be prepared to kick pensioners in the teeth in order to achieve long-term gain.
>> Um the short answer is I don't know. I'm not sure. Um but that's the sort of thing that I mean when I say that his first days and his first impressions and his first decisions are going to be so so so important. So yeah, if it comes in and says look uh the welfare what is it 42 48% of the welfare budget is spent on pensions if you want to reform welfare maybe we shouldn't have pensions triple locked into being um in line with the most generous inflation uh evaluation.
So you get all these different ways of measuring inflation and pensions are in line the most generous. So pensions will go up, you know, most generously out of all um of all welfare payments. And the reason that's happened is broadly because the conservatives who were in charge previously had the triple lock in place because they always wanted to, this is me being pretty cynical, but they always wanted to appease pensioners because pensions are much more likely to vote conservative. So they just like, you know, any any party will will put policies in place that most benefit the people that most likely to vote for them, right? to you know that and and that that support them. So it turns out that older people are more likely at least as it used to be more likely to vote conservative and uh so they did things that meant that pensioners were much more likely to have their money safeguarded going forward. Now the triple lock is seen as one of these um mechanisms that that should really be put under the spotlight. like why is that guaranteed when all other like welfare and all other payments and all other things are being sliced and diced?
There's this there's this carve out for pensioners, but of course that will be seen as highly controversial. So if Andy Bernham came in and said, "Right, we're we're going to cut the triple lock away from pensioners." Then you have all of these pensioners going absolutely nuts and it'll be the problem is like if you want to reform welfare you are going to piss off someone and those that someone is going to be someone that votes right and so you know this is why it's so difficult to to deal with with welfare reform is because it's seen as so controversial. Labour tried to do it with well with the winter fuel allowance and everyone went nuts and you're like no you should have just driven it through. Um, so anyway, just going back what are the fiscal rules? So this is Sky News reporting. A fiscal rule is a limited limit or restriction governments put in place to constrain how much they can borrow to fund public spending. They can be set by an independent body, but since 1997, UK governments have set their own constraints. Rules apply to the fiscal deficit, the gap between public expenditure and tax revenues in a year.
The public debt, the total amount borrowed to finance past deficits or public spending relative to GDP. In 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility was set up to remove the Treasury's ultimate control over the forecasts that underpin fiscal policy.
The Economics Observatory said the OBR's creation means fiscal rules should be seen as an expression of a government's objectives, not something that dictates those objectives. Uh so the current fiscal rules, the Labor Party's manifesto set out the new government's fiscal rules, describing them as non-negotiable. So this is what Rachel Ree and Kama said we couldn't break. But Andy Bernham coming coming in could break these, right? The current budget must move into balance. So day-to-day costs are met by revenues. Debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP by the fifth year of the forecast. This was carried over from the Conservative government. Um the rules themselves will not change. However, the chancellor has confirmed she want she will change how debt is calculated blah blah blah blah blah blah. And I'm pretty sure there are there are uh more rules and ramifications on that. Quantitive easing, printing money, so on so forth.
So I wonder whether Andy Bernham will will come along and mess around with them but he but he might not. Um because you know to go back to Europe the problem he's going to look at is that while there is growth in the UK in the current Labor government have I think done an a pretty good job in really difficult situ circumstances of managing the economy.
The UK has lost its growth advantage.
Real per capita growth from 2016 to 2025. This come from the Sunday Times using ONS and Euroat statistics. Italy 11.6% Spain 11.1% Euro zone in general all those have the Euro 10.2% France 8.4%. UK 5.4%. At least we're above Germany. Germany has famously been stagnating and they you know this is why you got the rise of the AFD. I think partly the UK at 5.4% is is below you know all of these other countries. So the question for Andy Bernham is will if we get closer to the EU and you have Michelle Banier from the EU coming out and saying look if the E if the UK wanted to rejoin the EU then it can it doesn't have to be part of the Shenhen free movement the people area and it doesn't have to be part of the Euro zone. So we could rejoin the kind of customs union the single market get all those benefits whilst also not having the free movement of people which is so controversial to uh people like reform voters and whatnot. So there are options maybe for Andy Bernham but this is definitely going to be an area like I know people don't like it when I talk about the EU and Brexit and stuff but you know this is one of the biggest um talking points at the moment because we need growth in the economy. Uh, you know, you've got marches. My mate um at the weekend went to a massive rejoin the EU march in London. Uh this is the thing that that for a lot of people is a huge huge consideration. So, you know, don't don't ignore these um these conversations. They are super serious uh important conversations that are on that are ongoing all the time at the moment.
Um and and Andy Bernham has got to work out what his government's position will be on the EU. Um uh so you've got uh what else? Sorry, I'm just looking at a few bits and pieces on uh the on the live blog here on the Guardian just uh talking about how talking about Zilinski uh and his thanks. Bernham brushes aside question about his call for general election when Boris Johnson was replaced as prime minister. So Andy Bernham previously said when Boris Johnson was replaced that that that should trigger a general election. Now of course he won't want one. Um Nigel Farage is calling for a general election. The Conservatives aren't probably because they had loads of people that were um that were prime minister under the Conservative tenure and each time they were obviously arguing there shouldn't be a general election. So it would be rather hypocritical if they were arguing for a general election. Now uh I personally think and this has been proposed by a number of uh Labour MPs. I think there should be a change of the rules so that um personally I think there should be a disincentive to have leadership changes mid election cycle because it's chaotic.
So you want to disincentivize governments and parties from having these revolving door leadership challenges. We had this under the Conservatives a number of times. We've had seven. Georgia Maloney is going to soon meet the fifth British prime minister under her tenure. This used to happen oddly in Italy. So Italy went through a load of leaders I think between Berleskone and Maloney and but now for some reason one reason or another. Maloney has um stabilized Italian politics but she is now going to see the fifth British prime minister under her tenure. So the question is, is that healthy for our democracy? Probably not. What can we do to stop that from happening? So often one rule change could be that if you have a leadership change, it necessarily triggers a general election and that will stop parties going, "Oh, we don't want a general election because actually that could that could undo our uh government.
We we might lose the next general election. So we won't have a leadership challenge because it will trigger a general election. For example, if there's a general election now, reform would do really well. Labor wouldn't be in government and that would be a a big negative. So, if that rule was in place, you wouldn't have had this big leadership challenge. So, that I think is a fairly sensible rule, but it does mean you are stuck with the leader.
You're probably stuck with the leader you got, but then that's that's who you voted for, right? Karma was the leader we voted for. He should have a chance of a five-year tenure to put in place. like Alex Ferguson when he was manager of Manchester United he took years to get going to become the manager he did um if it you know if it wasn't for um the Faulland's war Margaret Thatcher would have been you know she ended up being this iconic leader but she it took her she was deeply unpopular for years until the Falkland's law war luckily came along for her so the idea that that you know you need to have proved everything within a couple of years and that and that that that's your and otherwise you're gone. I think that's that's really problematic. So, I think there should be um there should be some a rule like that put in place. Now, uh uh good to good to see we've got some people having some fun in the comments. Uh some trollish behavior going on. Uh I just want to go through a couple of comments.
Um I think this is a really important one from Mark the Little Whiskey Shop.
people just did not know what Stara represented and I think that's absolutely on point. Uh and this is definitely so while I complain about the media and social media I think that's one of the most major problems Star had.
The other problem was and this is of his own doing is not clearly setting out his vision of what the country should be. Um he kind of Labour got in on on account of people didn't want the Tories after 14 years of the Conservatives and a pandemic uh controversies over party gates and all this kind of stuff where there would be one rule for the nation and another rule for Boris Johnson etc etc as the nation saw it and so people wanted them out but then reform came along and split the conservative vote and Labour got in with a massive majority as a result of that but it's a very narrow narrow. It's a very shallow majority. It was a wide, it wasn't narrow. It was a wide majority, but very shallow.
And um and they didn't they never really set out the vision of what the country should be, what they're what they're kind of standing for, who they're standing for. And that may be as a result of them going from being a left-wing party to being I think this is maybe one of the ramifications of becoming a centrist party. You're not really standing for any one big demographic.
um you're trying to please lots of people and trying to steer this central course. It's a bit like the Lib Dems.
Who do the Lib Dems stand for? We know Tories stand for business and for the individual uh rather than you know labor standing should be standing for traditionally were not should be traditionally were standing for the collective the workers workers rights.
That's literally what labor that's why they're called labor, right? But if you move to the center kind of you lose this kind of fire brand fighting for a particular demographic and it becomes quite difficult to set out a narrative and I think that's Lib Dem's problem because they are classic centrist liberal party but but they don't they're kind of labor for the middle classes for the centrist middle classes Lib Dems but they then find it very difficult to to really get people excited by fighting for who are you fighting for is it big business is it, you know, the individual, is it low tax? No, it's kind of like a bit of this, bit of that. No.
And and I think that's always been Star's problem. And they have failed to generate a narrative since then. So, I absolutely agree with Mark there. Who's Poppin says it was the same under Biden, JP, I think the governments are a little wary of addressing it head-on. That is regulation of media. Uh that is Yeah, very much so. Um Julian Roster, hey JP, I picked a good time to be back in Blighty. Good on you, Julian. Welcome home, my friend. Thank you for your support. Really, really appreciate it.
Um, and uh, yeah, I've already gone through that one. Michael Laming saying, "I'm seriously angry with the BBC forounding Star, but more so for promoting fascism on behalf of reform. I think this is a serious problem. There's a new director general in the BBC now. I would expect there to be some changes because some of the reporting over the last year or two has been overtly platforming reform." So Nigel Farage, you Laura Kunberg did an hourong um Nigel Farage loving uh documentary that and you've even had um you know reform colored ticker tape on BBC news programs and stuff like that and Zia Ysef has been the person most on BBC question time and he's not even elected MP for reform and so I think there is a facilitate there's a platforming of reform that needs to be uh addressed there because I think that that is that is an unfair skew. Um there uh Cheryl Watley says with you there on reforming the voting system and rejoining the EU.
Yeah, I that's generally where I would be. Um and I think that that's a key to some economic um growth there by you know getting back into bed with the EU with the EU. Then there are there are lots of issues of rejoining the EU, not least the movement of the EU to towards a populist right that we're seeing. You know, how stable is the EU going forward? How stable will we be in the EU if we're going to go backwards and forwards? And and you know, the EU won't want us coming back in, but then like voting to go out again just 5 years later. So, lots of issues. How what what sort of deal would we be able to um do with the EU? Would it be beneficial to us? so on and so forth. Um, and you know, right rightly Paul Sweeney said, "Look, PR could give us a lot more reform UK MPs." Yeah, but that is at least reflective. I might not like it. I said this at the time of of reform getting no MPs and then Douglas Carwell, no, not reform, UKIP. Douglas Carwell then defected. So they got one MP for 4.8 million votes or whatever it million votes UKIP. Uh but I said at the time I believe in proportional representation.
UKIP should have a bunch of MPs because that is the will of the people.
So I I I think yeah there are some ramifications that might be um unsavory from my political viewpoint but it is reflective of the wants of the electorate and I and I think that is what is missing there. Um yeah, the BBC the problem is that many of the appointees of BBC like um Gibb the d uh director general Tim Davyy previously but then you had was it Barry Barry Gibb Barry Gibbs from the BG isn't he um thingy Gibb. Um anyway yeah loads of appointees onto the board of directors for uh for the BBC that were put in place by the Conservative government to appease them at the time and and to do their bidding. So I think yeah that is definitely a problem with the BBC um uh and offcom too as some of you are pointing out it is a bit of a problem.
Um okay anyway uh that's probably enough from me. I really did want to do a live stream today on military aid. That's why I've got stacked up. I've got an awful lot of stuff to go through with you but then this came and happened today and I couldn't not talk about this as I may do another live later to do with Ukraine.
But the it's such a beautiful day. If I don't get outside and soak up some rays in some way, uh then I would be pretty it would be remiss of me. Uh so I need to experience some of this British global warming uh climate change um provoked summer uh sun uh as we are going through record temperatures for June at the moment. Um okay. Uh, yes, Barry Gibb of the Barry Gibb talk show, SNL. No, was it Barry Gibb? Was I right? Um, anyway, uh, hopefully I was right. Uh, thank you very much for for being here for this. Hopefully I've talked you through some of the main goings on, uh, what what Andy Bernham will have to consider in coming in. Um, who is he will definitely get rid of pretty much the entire cabinet. He want to shake it up and do things his way. He want to have no continuity from the previous government. So Rachel Reeves as chancellor will go. Uh who he'll put in place, I don't know. There is talk actually although I say get rid of the entire cabinet. There are some members of the cabinet that are aligned to Burnham and would probably have been supporting him from within their cabinet roles. There is talk that Shabbana Mimmude the home secretary might make the chancellor of the excheer but I don't know um uh we'll have to wait and see but certainly media and social media for me is is the challenge of any government that is now in place in the UK or anywhere around the world. You have to contend with get Yeah. bring John Healey back. I would agree with that actually and I wonder if he would do that. He might do that. That would be a sensible That would be a really sensible move because why would you assue expertise? Like John Healey knows what he's doing. He's really competent.
Uh and yeah, I I would I would I would see that as quite likely actually.
That's a good point. Um but anyway, any party around the world has to deal with narrative and control of the media. And I don't mean I mean control of the media in a in a kind of soft way. you need to be controlling how you are presented on the media, but also actually robust legal control of the media using the levers of regulation that you do have because I think at the moment the media in the UK has got out of control and is essentially like GB news. If Nigel Farage is the leader of an opposition party, has shares in GB news, is owned by this media mogul that is massively supportive of reform, it becomes it is just a propaganda channel for reform and I think that should that should go against offcom rulings. Um certainly if if Niger has a show on GB news, I think that's just unacceptable. Anyway, that's enough of me. Take care everybody. I will speak to you soon. Um uh to pits.
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