Iran Deal or Theater? Trump, Israel & the Global Oil Crisis | Russia’s Next Move

[00:00:00]All right. Good morning, Dad.

[00:00:01]>> Good morning.

[00:00:03]>> Um, thanks. Did you uh have a good weekend?

[00:00:07]>> I did. I did.

[00:00:09]>> Okay. All right. Enough of that. Um, so there was quite a bit of drama over the weekend. Um, and one of the things that a lot of people were commenting on and I was listening to a lot of other people talk about was going on was that there's not going to be any deal. This is all a ruse. And the idea that Trump and Vance are going to turn on Israel, it's just theater. It's just theater. And I'm hearing people that I respect, people like Mark Sabota saying these things like this is all theater. But >> I'm not convinced still. Um there are people that I think kind of believe that the that there is something big happening that the administration has no choice in this matter. And people I think John Mimemer kind of says something like that. Treat a parsy as well. So u are we just fools? Well, actually we're probably fools, but fools can be right. But [laughter] yeah, um yeah, we're right thinking fools.

[00:00:59]>> Um [laughter] yeah, no, I I do not think it is theater. And I I think that um if you look at it, you know, if I analyze it, it just the likelihood that it's theater, I think, is very very low. Um first of all, I'm going to think the both Trump and Vance have said things that are really very harmful to Israel.

[00:01:19]Now remember, you know, they are, you know, the representatives. um they were elected by the by you could almost call them Israel's base within the US increasingly you know the the portion of the population that still supports Israel is over on the right hand of the spec political spectrum they are you know mega people um a good port you know not all of them there's but there's a big overlap there you know this is what's the last pillar that um popular support for Israel um consists of is this this one this segment of the population that voted for Trump. Um, so it's things that he says, you know, really are are going to endanger that that, you know, criticisms leveled against Israel coming from Trump, coming from Vance, you know, have the potential and I think already have done, you know, a great deal of harm, much more so than, [clears throat] let's say, criticism coming from um, you know, somebody on the the left side of the spectrum here in the United States. So this is you know there's this fact you first of all look who they are how important they are to Israel's hopes for u maintaining some kind of popular support in the US and they have said some very harsh things you know again and true things that's the thing you know they they are speaking the truth the sort of things that we have been saying and for the first time some other people are hearing them now they say them once or twice it won't make a difference um you know Vance in particular has has made many statements Um, probably one that everybody has heard is says, "Look, you can't kill your way out of every problem." And, uh, you know, these are these are real darts and they are they are, you know, I I it's hard to imagine that they're not doing damage and that the Israelis aren't really deeply concerned about this. So, if this is theater, this is incredibly stupid theater. This is theater that is harming the special relationship, >> right? Um but then on the other hand, you know, it's like this is the point that that Mir Sham made makes um and that we've made earlier too is that there is a true conflict of interest.

[00:03:35]There always has been a conflict of interest, but it hasn't been strong enough to overcome the power of the of the Israel lobby. Um but this is something where vital the vital interests of the United States are at stake. You know this war has been such a disaster to the credibility of the US.

[00:03:56]It has done tremendous economic damage already to the US and to the world and is is putting US alliances under strain.

[00:04:06]And we are you know above all we're facing this cliff. the the reserves are going to start to run down at the beginning at the end of this month and then the private in inventories, you know, through next month. A lot of people say the strategic reserve, but that still has a ways to go. But the thing is the combination of the two that's been depressing the oil prices and when we hit tank bottoms, you know, through the month of July, we're going to see some real effects. And that's what Trump himself said. He's explaining, look, this is this is what's going on. Um, so there and then on the other side, okay, there's Israel. They don't give a damn about oil prices. They are committed to destroying or weakening Iran. And this is something again, this is across the political spectrum. The support, the only country in the world that supports this war is Israel. You know, where there is popular support for this war and it's Israel and it's very very powerful. But in the US, again, good looking at, you know, this aspect of the problem, you know, support for the war. In the US there isn't, you know, it is a majority of people do not support this war. They disapprove of this war. You say, well, still within, you know, the Republican party, there is support for Trump in the war. But that is very weak support. And I think we can see it because recently there was a poll that showed even a majority of Republicans said they didn't see any really benefits from this war.

[00:05:27]Um so so again you know the that's just you know this is another way in which this this war this you know and the need to end it is a is a is a vital US matter you know this is something that we've seen Trump himself is starting to admit this and um we're getting leaks constantly you know from from the the intelligence agencies that are saying the same thing and also leaks who is saying that look Israel is trying to sabotage this. So this is, you know, this is a there's a real effort. There's a real understanding that Israel has taken us to a very dangerous place. All these deep state places, like I said, they didn't care deep state guys, you know, they didn't care about the the genocide in general. They don't care about Palestinian, Lebanoni, Lebanese lives or Iranian lives for that matter.

[00:06:19]Um, but they do care about the vital, you know, geo strategic interests of the United States of America. And these are in, you know, direct conflict with Israel. So there is just using AAM's razor, you don't have to go to some 5D chess or whatever. There is a real a huge conflict of interest that has never which we've never seen before. You know, there always really has been. There should have been the US should have maintained a distance from Israel in the past, but we didn't because of the power of the Israel lobby. But you know, maybe we've just come to think that the Israel lobby is all powerful. You know even I find myself thinking this it is very powerful but you know it can it is not invincible it is not you know God almighty uh there are other forces out there and I think this time it's come up against another force and that's why we're seeing this you know there's no reason to believe this is theater this is very very real.

[00:07:13]>> Yeah. Another reason not to believe that it's theater is just to watch the behavior of the Israeli supporters. You know people like Mark Levin or the Israelis themselves. They've been in a total meltdown over this. I don't know if you saw this tweet. There's this guy, his name is Benny Sabi. He's an Israeli journalist apparently with I24 on channel 12. He tweeted out something pretty wild. He said that perhaps the United States needs another Pearl Harbor on 9/11 to remember who their enemy is and who their friends are. That's pretty crazy to tweet something out like that.

[00:07:44]As a journalist in Israel, now I'm thinking like, wait, now I got to look up Pearl Harbor. What's going on with Pearl Harbor? You know, actually, I did go down that rabbit hole a little bit, and I do have some I won't go down, but anybody not go down that rabbit hole.

[00:07:56]>> You can look up the Secretary of Treasury during that time and see.

[00:07:59]>> And anyways, I won't go down that road, but I I think that's a um just something that you should always have that's kind of your litmus test is just to see like, well, what are the Israeli supporters?

[00:08:08]How are they behaving? Is this is this genuine? You know, genuine meltdown is genuine outrage. And it seems to be genuine. You know, there have been reports of friction in the past, but we didn't get anything, you know, like this.

[00:08:21]Um, this is something completely new, and I think it it's real. Now, it's not it's not certain that Trump is actually going to stick to his guns. He's already done about face. You know, we saw some um statements that he made just this last weekend that, you know, two social posts. One was in response to uh President Peskian of Iran who said something that they're about them not giving up nuclear enrichment and he said well if you don't do this you know we're going to have to take over your country that's [laughter] so this is old Trump you know he's starting to issue these threats and then um in response to oh just about the situation in southern Lebanon or Lebanon [snorts] in general he said Iran better um you know tell shut down their well-paid proxy right >> I have the quote right here actually I'll read it okay >> so he tweeted out Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble if they don't we'll hit Iran very hard just like we did last week only harder President Donald J Trump >> right right now this doesn't surprise me at all you know like we were talking say this is Trump he's going to he's going to be all over the map right he's going to say things. He'll talk to somebody and he'll start um and and there is a chance that in the end he will do what he's threatening to do. Let's be honest, he is feeling tremendous pressure from these guys that he's been listen had had been listening to. You know, people like um Lindsey Graham. Now, I heard Lindsey Graham claimed that he talked to uh President Trump for 4 and a half hours.

[00:09:58][snorts] I think it was Friday or Saturday or something. And then it was after that that Trump came out with these tweets. So, you know what? What the heck is uh Trump doing talking to Lindsey Graham for four and a half hours? You know, he should understand.

[00:10:12]He knows he should know. You know, this is what he's incapable of doing, though.

[00:10:15]It seems like you make a decision, you know, these people are going to be infuriated. You just have to steal yourself against it and just don't listen to them. You've you made your decision. But he seems to be incapable of doing that. You know, we've seen that again and again. So he it is possible that he will be talked back into doing, you know, renewing the attack on Iran.

[00:10:35]That could happen. He was stupid enough to be convinced to do it once. He could be. He has to be even stupider to do it now, but he maybe he he could be. Um but the, you know, but the reality is against him. And there are a lot of people around him and just in the deep state in general that understand this and are, you know, are pushing really really hard to say you just cannot go go back in. Um yeah, I agree that I think that's exactly what we're seeing happen is just Trump being bounced around. He talk he faces reality. He knows what's happening in Iran and gets back and he's like, "Okay, I guess I got to sign this deal." and then all of his former friends, everybody around him. And you have to also realize that Trump's personality and the personality of these politicians, they have a lot of charisma. They are that's their job.

[00:11:27]They're they're good at sweet talking.

[00:11:29]They're good at being friendly. I'm sure they're in many ways they're fun to hang out with. That's how they made it to the top, you know. Um and so they hangs like said Lindsy Graham talks to him for four and a half hours and then he's like, "Okay, I guess I'll just send out this tweet, do these things, you know, help help my buddies out a bit." And then he does it and then he gets smacked by reality again. So this is what I think we're going to see happen. He's going to get smacked by reality. He's going to go back, get pressure from the Israeli lobby, send out some stupid tweet like this. This this >> this tweet he sent out was right before the signing. I think everybody saw the video where the Iranians walked out of the negotiation right right before in front of JD Vance and JD Vance is flabbergasted and the poor Pakistani prime minister is just completely bewildered like I worked so hard for this. And then Trump just does this. He tweets this out and threatens uh you know to to bomb Iran again and direct violation of the first clause the uh the MOU.

[00:12:22]>> Right. Right. No threat or use the threat of force is the first clause.

[00:12:28]>> Right. It specifically mentions no threats from either side. It says that.

[00:12:32]And then Trump of course makes this threat. But he does more than just send out that tweet. This one out on Fox News around the same time. Let me just play it real quick so we can see. Hey guys, good morning. I just spoke with President Trump for more than 20 minutes and he gave some new insight and reaction about the ongoing talks that are taking place in Switzerland and the threats coming from the Iranian regime. President Trump telling Fox News that the US may take over the strait in the future if they have to and collect tolls. The president described this as the United States being the guardian angel of the straight of Hormuz and the Middle East. And the president said ultimately that would involve the US taking 20% of the oil that passes through the straight.

[00:13:16]Remember this comes in reaction to the Iranians saying they will close the straight of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. President Trump tells Fox News he spoke with Iranian officials overnight and said, "You close it and you won't have a country." He went on to tell these officials, "You won't even make it back to your effing country.

[00:13:40]So I I mean he he says that he Trump said that directly to Israeli officials.

[00:13:44]I don't know if it's hard to believe he would do >> to or to Iranian Iranian officials.

[00:13:49]Sorry. Yeah. To Iranian officials. It's hard to believe he would so stupid.

[00:13:54]>> You know that's probably false news. Fox News. Now, you know, like I think the the the best interpretation or the let's say the most optimistic interpretation is that Trump knows he can't do any of these things and he just he just feels like he has to give them some, you know, Fox News viewers some red meat and get Lindsey Graham off his back for a little while. So, he says this stuff. Um, but it does harm the negotiations. You know, that's it. and he I think he there's another part of him or in some certain hours of the day he understands that these negotiations need to go forward. Um so you know so that's you know again it's the best is that like he's just trying to get him off his back but he's not really intending to do anything. The other chance is that he is starting to you know be pulled back into the orbit of Lindsey Graham and Mark Leaven and and the Israelis and all the is Israel firsters. Um it's which is a possibility again this is Donald Trump >> but but but there but it's different like I've said if if by some chance which I don't think is you know is not negligible he he does renew the attack um it's it's going to fail and he's going to end up in a even worse position. the economic, you know, catastrophe will will, you know, hit harder and sooner and will last longer, you know, all those things. Like he was afraid of a great depression. That's what he said. And I think maybe you know again that's something he understands you know again it's just like uh like we're saying all these deep state guys they they don't really care about human lives or anything but you know markets um the price of gasoline you know the midterms that are coming up those are things that he understands and it just may be that you no matter no matter what Lindsey Graham tells him that he he will just hold to the course with with occasional you know outrageous statements like this. Let's hope so.

[00:15:51]rule again with Trump there's no there are no guarantees >> right do you know the current state of negotiations right now I mean the last we saw that they was this walk out and it's like okay it's over and now this the straight is closed and but now is it coming back I imagine there's going to we're going to see a lot of this back and forth kind of in a sense >> I think they actually are still talking that that that was mostly theater you know but theater with a point and say hey right? You know, you got to rein this guy in. This isn't, you know, we're not accepting and and they need to respond to something like that, you know. Um, but I believe this is the last thing I heard is that there are ongoing negotiations, but really focused on on Lebanon because that's the big that's the the uh Iranians have remained adamant on that. And it's, you know, clearly I think I think it's maybe typical. was just like, "Okay, Trump agreed to this and and say, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right. We we'll we'll get the Israelis to stop attacking in Lebanon. We'll get them to even withdraw, you know, and um but he was just thinking like, you know, you we can fudge this a little bit." And this is it'll be a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics. That's the way I think that's a great term. You know, that's Chass Freeman describes it. In other words, a ceasefire that's not really a ceasefire, a one-sided ceasefire where these Israelis can, you know, strike whenever they feel like and they don't have to withdraw. Um the the Iranians are making it clear, no, we're not playing that game. You know, we're not you this is going to be a real ceasefire and a real withdrawal. And um so this is going to be interesting. I mean, the the Israelis are just screaming. They're just um again, you know, I I read several articles in Haretss or you know that where in in every case they're just saying this is a disaster. This is a total disaster. We can't let Iran tell us what to do, you know, and Iran through the United States, you know, tell us what to do. Um uh but they may have to, you know, again, Trump does have leverage, you know, he does have leverage. You know, we've talked about the things he can do. he can remove, you know, the military assets as a region and there's reports that he's already started doing that. He can deny him the use, you know, of any support if they're going to carry out tankers. Um, and he can continue to make the kind of comments that he's made and I think they really, you know, they they really help the um they really do damage to the special relationship.

[00:18:22]Um and then there are you know I I know there like I've mentioned before a lot of m munitions um have been allocated u by the you know by the congress and there's not a whole lot he can do about that. Um but but there also are ways for you know presidents like Biden did this you know he just he signed these executive orders and sent emergency shipments of of arms to to Israel and Trump can say I'm not doing that anymore you know that's something all those things are going to are going to affect Israel and just also just the if especially like if Vance keeps on going and Trump comes out you know at least every other day or something with some kind of zinger directed against Netanyahu against Israel um you know that's a problem for them.

[00:19:10]They're already in such deep trouble.

[00:19:13]They are you know the pariah of the world the the um the most hated country in the world and they are utterly dependent on the US and goodwill from the US and they can't you know they can't disregard that entire they just can't you know they can't they can't put that at risk and so you just see these you know there's all this terrible frustration with Israel but um there's within Israel and a lot of hatred directed against Netanyahu. Um, but they they don't seem to really understand that, okay, they're just going to have to back down. It's like, we can't do that. That would be so disastrous if we back down, but they're they're going to have to be forced into it. And I think I think Trump really could force them, you know, to back down. But it's policy. Yeah. Right. It's >> you know, there's just a huge battle going on. you know, some of it breaks out in the open and I'm sure a lot of interesting things are happening behind the scenes. [snorts] >> Yeah. you know, something this is a crazy idea and and it may it's probably pretty stupid, but I'm just wondering like does Israel have any cards to play? And I'm thinking, well, if the leverage is the global economy that u right now that that Iran is is wielding over the United States, what if uh Israel tried to destroy that leverage by itself destroying infrastructure, burning, setting the region on fire? You know, because there was this um p this liquid LG terminal that blew up yesterday or the day before yesterday.

[00:20:45]Um, and maybe it's probably just from it starting back up because these things, you know, they they there's safety issues. If it's been sitting idle for too long, maybe that happened. But, you know, over 50 people injured, 18 people still missing the last I checked. And I was just thinking like, you know, what if what if Israel starts doing maybe what if it wasn't an accident? What if it was sabotage? And then, you know, could that could that I'm just want because they they obviously will go to great lengths. You know, we jump to the Samson option all the time. um is like this is what happens. But you know there are a lot of things that are going to happen before we get to that Samson option. I do think that that's where we're headed ultimately. But >> there's, you know, [clears throat] that's that's the final option. And so I'm just wondering what other things could they do to try to just light the world on fire because that's kind of maybe the plan now is just like once chaos breaks loose then and nothing else matters. Now we're in this big, you know, epic battle. And >> do you think that's possibility?

[00:21:40]>> Well, I don't think so. You know, I just the thing is like if it if they are caught, you know, if it's apparent that Israel is just destroying um energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, um that's going to well that could be the end of their relationship with the Persian Gulf States, you know, and that's something that they have cultivated over the last couple of decades, you know, especially with the UAE. Um and you know even with others like Qatar which is often hostile to them but still there are things that go on be beside there has even been military cooperation. I've talked about that earlier but all of that they lose all of that if if it becomes apparent they're behind any of this. So I I don't think so. Um but >> oh yeah but on the other side you know if there's but but there are all kinds of things that could happen. We do have to be you know on the lookout for false flags for example. I think that that's a real possibility and I'm sure they're discussing some possible false flags right now as we speak. They've they've have it they've had a history of doing that and I think they might reach into their false flag bag. That's um now on the other side, the Iranians, um you know, some people have questioned like the Iranians have to know that there's just no way, you know, that that Israel is going to comply with this and that the whole, you know, uh it's not even a deal, you know, theou is going to blow up and not go anywhere, you know. So, why did they put in this clause? Um now I you know I think there first of all it is a matter of I think a principle for them you know Iran has an identity as a sovereign nation you know that's that is opposed you know that that supports the resistance resistance to as they see it western colonialism in the form of Israel um and they they feel kind of duty bound you know to support their brothers in um in Lebanon and in other places as well. I think that's for real. Um and um but then there's also it's in their interest. I mean they they lost Syria and that really hurt them. Um but they still have Hezbollah and that is you know a pressure point that they can use against um Israel, you know, and a real asset during conflict. And they were an asset, you know, even during the the 40-day war, for example. Well, there were they there was some coordination of um missile and drone strikes. So you you know the the the Iranians would launch missiles at northern Israel and at the same time Hezbollah would send in a lot of drones in and help to saturate the system and make it easier for the Iranian missiles to hit their targets. No, that's just an example. So you know they they are an ally that's important to them. But I think that's only part of it. I think one reason, you know, this is speculation, um, but one reason that they may have put it in there is that, hey, they understand American politics. They understand the power of the Israel lobby, you know, the strangle hold it's had on the US and they understand that so much of the hostility that has been directed against them, you know, and so many of the which is this hostility that which has been taken the form of economic sanctions and now military attacks and so on really goes back to the influence of Israel. And so they see a chance to drive a wedge between the US and Israel. And you know, this is not 5D chess. It's just chess. We'll just say, you know, cuz I I I they know this, you know, they know this about the what with about American politics. And so they just say, "Hey, you know, wait a second, you know, like we're just going to we've got a chance. We got this this pressure point here. We can this wedge and let's just start driving it. You know, let's not let go."

[00:25:35]>> And that's what they seem to be doing.

[00:25:36]>> I think they can do it very effectively as well. Um, and the Israelis are going to help out because the Israelis as they panic and they'll get they'll get angry and we're already seeing it, you know, threats being made at Americans, how upset they are at America. And then when us Americans see that, we're like, screw you guys. You know, you've been you we we don't like you to begin with. You've been carrying out this genocide, so our name, taking our taxpayer dollars. We're complicit in this because you just have control over our government. You're spending all this money on our elections. It just we're upset. And the more that they become upset at us because we refuse to give them unconditional support, I think this is just going to it's going to it already has. I feel like we passed the point of no return. So, um I that's a smart move, you know, continue driving that wedge.

[00:26:21]Um it's also seems like Iran they they have I don't know I've heard something like a sixstage plan, you know, of escalation like to if the theou isn't being respected. Um, and the first one is closing the street of Hormuz, and then I imagine the others get towards, >> you know, striking, >> which they've already done, you know.

[00:26:41]>> Yeah, I was going to ask you about that.

[00:26:43]So, I'm always confused. We The Trump always says it's open and but I guess it's what Iran says, but I guess Iran is allowing certain ships kind of like before. I mean, >> well, okay. Well, first of all, um, there was some sort of announcement that it was going to open up, you know, when right after theou was signed. Um and then Sentcom, you know, declared that it was basically open and all kinds. But then, you know, you look at the tracking information and there's really not a notice there wasn't a noticeable uptick. I think maybe a total of 55 in two days, which is actually how it often was beforehand. you know, the the Iranians were managing the flow of um of shipping through the straight and you know, they would let through 25 or 30 in a day. You know, occasionally they would do that. That was not unusual. So, I don't it doesn't seem clear to me that it was really open. Um you know, maybe the restrictions were loosened somewhat being in the process of loosening, but it wasn't totally open. And then the Iranians declared that it was shut. Now I think like right be I I heard a report of this right before our podcast on Friday and I mentioned that I think that may may not have been a true report. I think later in fact like the Iranian foreign ministry said that wasn't true but then on Saturday you know um it the the IRGC Iran made it crystal clear yeah we are shutting it down you know until we solve this Lebanon problem. And again Trump's denies it. Sentcom denies it, but they both have a record of lying. And I think it's probably probably what the Iranians say is true.

[00:28:25]>> Well, then we're right back where we were then. It doesn't seem like it it ever really flowed, right? Traffic maybe opened up a little bit, but it certainly not much of an impact. So, >> Trump made that statement uh a week ago saying that there's only four weeks left. Does that mean we're down to 3 weeks now?

[00:28:42]>> Uh yeah, it could very well be. And then and the thing to remember is that even if it does open up completely, okay, the Iranians, the the Israelis incredibly withdraw from southern Lebanon, the the Iranians, you know, lift all their restrictions. Um, and the tankers start just, you know, sailing out of the straight, you know, and and numbers approaching uh those that we saw before February 28th.

[00:29:09]Um even you know even if that happens like just today um it's going to take something like 2 months for that oil to get to uh to the various destinations around the world and two months is a lot more than 3 weeks. So, we are going to it's going to be rough rough going for a while, you know, uh cuz those private inventories are going to run out, you know, if the reports that I've been seeing are true, they're going to run out before a lot of that oil hits the market. Um and so we're going to be Yeah, it's going to be rough for a while, but then eventually things will settle down. It's still I think oil prices are going to be high because there's going to be again they've been artificially depressed by drawing down these oil reserves. That's gone. And it's going to take a and you know even if um this the straight opens and remains open um and then if you know eventually we get a regular flow of traffic going back and forth um even then you know it's going to be several months after that happens for us to get back to where we were on February 28th because um there was damage done to these oil fields. It takes a while to restart them. Some of these oil fields are never going to produce oil like they did before. You know, I think this is just a fact. And um and so there there may be, you know, just a you know, the market's going to be tight for a long long time.

[00:30:38]I think there's no question about it, you know. Um but that's again, you know, this is the rosiest scenario that we're just saying again that it opens up completely today. you know, it's still going to be we're going to have some rocky months ahead of us here. You know, we're going to have see some real spikes in oil prices and there's going to be a lot of there's going to be certain amount of pain, but we could avoid catastrophe. But yeah, no, if if if the Iranians keep it closed and it this goes drags on for another couple of weeks, you know, the longer it does, the worse that that you know, we go from um a recession into potentially into a great depression. You know, again, that that was Trump's fear. And if and if he still understands that, you know, maybe he will get those Israelis to do what they have to do in in Lebanon.

[00:31:24]>> Yeah. I mean, if you do you think that if we start to really feel the effects in a couple of weeks, I mean, that should put a lot of pressure on Trump realize like, I got to do this now, right? You know, maybe we'll get to that point where it starts the economy really starts to hurt and then he's like, okay, I have to do this. But this is just what makes it so interesting is that, you know, I understand the people that were saying that we're fools to believe that Trump can ever turn on Israel, JD Vance, but it's like what we were saying before. It's like what happens when, you know, an unstoppable unstoppable force hits an immovable object kind of thing. You know, we have these two things and something has to happen because they're they're colliding right now. It's like I understand just how in the pocket um so many of our politicians, our government is in in Israel in Israel's pocket, but I mean just look at what's happening. It's an absolute catastrophe that's unfolding before our eyes. So I think that he I think a deal is going to have to get made. There's just going to be so much pressure from everywhere outside of Israel. The whole world is going to be screaming at him. All these world leaders will be calling him up and being like, "What are you doing?" Right? I mean, this has to end.

[00:32:31]>> Right. Right. You know, that's yeah, again, it's important that he's certainly getting pressure from other world leaders, too, and from the Gulf States. And I think, you know, that some of these world leaders he just couldn't get a damn about. You know, it's clear, but some of them he does he does, you know, his relationship with with them matters to him. And um and I think that his he does care about the Gulf States. You know, he remember that wonderful reception and the gift of the 747 and all that. He just loved that. he lapped it up and I think he um I mean it's beyond that his family has uh is kind of deeply tied to these places you know have business links um Kushner and maybe even Wickoff I'm not sure um but others other members of his family too so yeah all that matters I mean there that's the thing is that there okay yeah you know he's never wanted to cross Israel he's um um he's always kind of he's transactional Miriam Adlesum gave $100 million. He gave Israel the golden heights. He gave them Jerusalem, you know, he gave him this Iran war. Um but uh it didn't work out. And so here we are and he's and Miriam Adlesen is very angry at him. says, you know, described him as a betrayer >> and right >> she has he doesn't want to go against him but you know there's just the this is the first time you let's say had a scale like you know where okay Israel is a small state but because of all you know its influence it's always managed to to um to outweigh all these other considerations you know be through the the adles and others you know it's just like there was that influence that was always there and that it just o always overcame any resistance to to Israeli designs, you know. Um, and but but this time, you know, that it's just like there's so they had their thumb on the scale and they always kept it down on their side. But this time there's so much weight on the other side just to, you know, put it in visual terms that that that all that Israeli influence, you know, maybe no, we'll find out. This is what we're witnessing right now. Can they hang on? you know, can they continue to to keep control?

[00:34:50]You know, maybe not. Maybe there's just there's just, you know, too much um too much pressure and, you know, real fear on the other side that it's all of that that influence that they've worked so hard to build up over the the decades, you know, that that will just not be enough and that and Trump will go against them, will continue to go against them, >> right? And and the problem is is their influence is becoming more and more apparent. Um, and it's disgusting more and more Americans. So, it's it's damaging them as they continue to exert their influence. Um, yeah, you brought Miriam Adlesen. You know, you mentioned this on Friday. So, 4 days ago, um, a paper that Miriam Adlesen owns in Israel called Israel Hyome. This was their lead article. The title is, "You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed.

[00:35:40]>> Mr. President, you have gravely harmed the human interest of the enlightened world. And you may be remembered forever as the president who brought about America's humiliation. You betrayed us, the Israelis, and in a single moment, the contempt you once faced suddenly seems so justified and logical. So that's what they ran as their hat. So that's another reason why I just think, you know, this isn't theater. We are at a true conflict of interest, and it's just it's going to be fascinating to see how this plays out. I think we're going to see a lot of bouncing around between the two. Trump is going to be yanked from one side of the other between reality and all these Israeli influencers. But like I said, the Israeli influencers is going to push him straight into the Iranian wood chipper and he's going to get chewed up and spat out and then he's going to go back to him all beat up and be like, I can't do this. They try to push him again. Just how many times can that happen? Um and then maybe he'll bounce around until I think probably until the we see the the economy the wheels of the whole global economy start to fall off and it's like, okay, it's over, you know, we got to do this.

[00:36:34]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Another thing, right?

[00:36:36]Exactly. what would happen is which is would be typical of Trump and what we've seen him do before he says he's going to bounce back and forth back back and forth and he can't quite commit you know when it comes up to you know actually issuing the order for an attack in Iran oh man I just can't do that and then you know then he makes a criticisms of Israel um and you know he he tries to push forward with the negotiations starts to pressure Israel you know really hard to withdraw from Lebanon and then he gets you hit from the other side. He spends another four and a half hours with Lindsey Graham and we'll just see this go on and on. But the thing is like it can't go on forever. You know, it's just like you say, "Oh, you can't just keep on kicking this can down the road because the road ends in a cliff, you know, three or four weeks from now."

[00:37:22]So, >> Right.

[00:37:24]>> Right. Yeah. No, it's fascinating. Um, you know, Israel obviously I think they they just blatantly said they're not going to listen to America. Um, so we got to see it's going to we got to see what are we going to do? Can we use some of that coercive leverage? And the thing is, we need to use it. We should just use it now and all at once. Don't try to like this is the problem with Trump.

[00:37:42]He's trying to appease both sides.

[00:37:44]Instead, it's like you have to go, if you made this decision with theou, then you got to you got to pull out your guns now and and rain on or else they're going to stink your hooks in you. And and that's why we're most I think probably the most likely scenario is we will bounce around between the two until the global economy goes into the dump, you know. But I want to show you one video that just kind of shows uh you know where the state of Israel is at. We kind I know a lot of us know but this was uh they were having a pol Netanyahu held a policy summit in Jerusalem while these negotiations were going on over the weekend. I thought it was interesting.

[00:38:21]>> I think the greatest achievement we have made is to break through the barrier of fear.

[00:38:29]For years, people told us, "You cannot attack the soil of Iran. Yes, you can do MSAD operations, and we did quite a few.

[00:38:38]I authorized many, but you cannot send our military to Iran.

[00:38:44]But we changed that. We sent our brave pilots over the skies of Iran and they took out targets, regime targets, terror targets, [applause] missile batteries, missile production sites, and nuclear sites. We change Israel's security doctrine. We initiate, we attack, we surprise, and we attack those enemies that seek our destruction, that seek to kill us. We attack them before they have a chance to do so. If you know Hebrew, kill them first.

[00:39:21][applause] >> So yeah, I mean it's clear that Israel is not going to go down without taking as many people with it. It's possible.

[00:39:34]It's just >> it's such an insane situation, Dad. And I just wonder, >> right? Well, yet in Israel there's a you know that I I know Netanyahu is claiming some great success, but it's not working. You know, even among his supporters, even among the the uh Luc uh party members across the political spectrum, they say that this has been a disaster. But unfortunately, it's not like uh yeah, it's disaster. We should never have done it. Um maybe we should pursue a diplomatic path. No, it's like of course we got to attack Iran somewhere and try to destroy him, but he did it wrong.

[00:40:09]So he, you know, he's in deep water.

[00:40:10]He's trying to claim success, but they, the Israelis themselves don't see success. And and um his approval ratings are way, way down.

[00:40:19]>> Yeah. And you just wonder, you know, we're seeing just such open genocidal language being used. You know, N just said there, we're changing our doctrine to, you know, kill them first. You know, that's you're in the middle of trying to do a peace deal right now. And this is what you're saying your doctrine is is that you just kill first. You know, like this is insane. And then you had Ben Gavir with that absolutely unhinged tweet where he says all of Lebanon must burn and for every tear an Israeli mother weeps a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. Like just absolutely unhinged genocidal rants, you know, >> right?

[00:40:54]>> But you know, I want to say, yeah, everybody condemns Ben Gavir as they should, but he actually is just reflecting a long-standing Israeli doctrine. you know, it's the DIA doctrine, which is that, okay, any uh any casualty suffered by the IDF, you know, we respond by just like taking out a block in Dah, you know, that southern district of of Beirut. Um, which is, you know, essentially what exactly what he was saying, right? You you kill one of ours, you know, we kill a thousand of yours or more. Um, so, you know, that's the thing, too. It was just like, okay, yeah, Ben Gavir uses this very violent, you know, really um appalling language and he is rightly condemned for it, but let's be honest, this is what Israel has been doing for a while. You know, that's right. Well, I mean, if that's true and what the what this genocidal language is actually reflective of Israeli society as a whole, then how does this end?

[00:41:51]There can't be a reformation of such a society, right?

[00:41:56]>> Yeah. That's not a solution to ask, >> right? I don't see [laughter] it. You know, like again, you know, I read the pages of of hot rats and there was really only one one um opinion piece that said um that, you know, [laughter] that was different.

[00:42:14]You know, I I described the others as just this this outrageous sense, you know, how could we be restricted? You know, Netanyahu messed up, but of course, we have to keep on fighting around. That's kind of the general view.

[00:42:24]said in the end I I don't they're not really coming to terms with the reality but there was one piece by uh Gideon Levy you know again who's really an exceptional reporter there and he said maybe this is what we should have always hoped for you know that I've come to understand over the years that the only way that Israel is ever going to change is from pressure from the outside and that that pressure has got to come from the US. You know, I never foresaw these circumstances that we're in right now, but it actually gives me some hope that, you know, again, that because we failed in this war, um, and in the US failed together with us, um, maybe, you know, through US pressure, you know, uh, we will have to wake up and we will have to actually, you know, reassess our policies and and choose a different course. And he pointed to um actually again the uh Yam Kapoor war in which again the Israelis they ended up winning but with a lot of US help and they were actually you know they they very nearly lost that war and that's why they actually were starting to threaten the the use of nuclear weapons and after that war they said they began to understand that they had to come to terms with their neighbors. So that led to first of all the um the return of uh the Sinai to Egypt. You know that was something that they had seized. They realized we just can't hang on to this territory. They returned it and then the Camp David peace accords. You know over over time that became correct corrupted and they they stopped going down the diplomatic path of course and you know we are where we are now. Uh but that was a moment when they they kind of woke sobered up a bit back there in the early '7s. Um and he just expresses hope that maybe just maybe that that'll happen now. I don't know. You know, he I think he's doubtful too because he understands just how crazy Israeli society is now.

[00:44:20]Israel Israeli society back then was ser >> right. I think the that outcome is that's grasping at straws there. I mean you you describe Gideon Levy as exceptional because he is very unique there and Gideon Levy openly talks about how lonely he is in Israel that no they just he nobody nobody thinks like him. So it's just I think it's too you know it's too too far gone if you have like 90% of the population thinking one way.

[00:44:47]>> Yeah. Or at least the you know the Jewish Israeli population the Arabs are different which are you know they they account for 20%.

[00:44:54]>> Right. So this is um >> but they don't have any power.

[00:44:57]>> Right. As the Israeli state starts to collapse I think it's going to get really I this is one of the biggest questions that I always have and I just have no explanation on how to explain how this you know this ends. You know, I talk about the Samson option, but that's not the end. You know, there's what's going to happen to these people. What do we do with these people after they've committed so many crimes and um refuse to reform? It's just it's a difficult one.

[00:45:22]>> I because I I I think about it as well just with our own politicians, you know, like I see that picture of Nikki Haley signing bombs in Israel, writing finish them on the bombs >> like Gaza >> for Gaza. Like these are bomb our bombs that are killing children. and you were side writing finish them on a foreign for you know giving them to this genocidal state >> like will you will you go to jail I I hope so and you have Randy Fine tweeting kill them all may the streets of Gaza run with blood let them starve away you know just insane these are these are our political leaders and this is also what makes it so interesting here in the United States is that I think that as the tides begin to turn there's going to be real fear you know these are just some of the most extreme examples But throughout our Congress, throughout our even like in police force in the United States is there's Israeli ties in there all of them. And as all of a sudden being associated with Israel as this genocidal state just becomes toxic and how are we going to uproot this? People are going to be you know they're going to try to fight tooth and nail because this is their life. They they you know they supported the wrong an evil cause and now people realize it and what are they going to do? How do we reckon with that? It's it's >> I don't have any answers. I hope that I hope you know that we have a peaceful resolution in this country but it's you know knowing human nature it's you know there's probably going to be an ugly side to it that we've let this go on too long you know if if real efforts had made been made let's say back in the 70s or 80s you know to to for a fair settlement and the creation of a a two-state solution we could have avoided all this but we just let this like this kind of this tumor grow and grow and Now it's uh okay trying to excise it, but it's going to be a bloody well, you know, maybe I shouldn't say bloody, but it's going to be a very ugly affair. It could be bloody, you know, >> to say.

[00:47:16]>> Yeah. No, I Yeah, it's uh it's going to be very interesting. It's going to be very rocky. It's We're just It's just starting. That's the thing.

[00:47:25]>> We got it. That's That's way down. You know, again, let's not forget the political class is still there. They're they're very committed to Israel. they, you know, they know who butters their bread and um and so yeah, but something really is changing. You know, you mentioned John Mirshimer at the beginning and he said like he never thought he would see what he's seeing now. You know, again with this these kind of criticisms coming from a US administration, much less a such a pro-Israel one as, you know, the Trump administration. He thought he would never see that in his lifetime. And he's just he's just amazed amazed by all the changes. I mean, it's just like he he was just a voice in the wilderness with Steven Waltz, you know, back in the 2000s and uh, you know, roundly condemned as an anti-semite and so on.

[00:48:12]He was able to withstand the criticism, you know, having a tenure position at at the University of Chicago. Um, but now he doesn't feel lonely. He says it's just things have really changed in a way that again he's, you know, faster and and things have gone a lot farther than than he thought he would ever see. and now in and seeing new breakthroughs every day. So again, we have a long ways to go, but there are things that this is really changing. It really is. The earthquake is beginning.

[00:48:39]>> Yeah, for sure. Okay. Well, let's um try to move over to Russia before we run out of time. Um >> so, you know, I'm kind of I was kind of thinking that with the Iran war happening that this was just exposing to the European Union, NATO that uh oh, the United States isn't all that powerful.

[00:48:58]you know, they tried to go toe-to-toe with Iran and came out all banged up. We didn't look too hot during that conflict. And so I was thinking like, well then this shouldn't this be reality check to the Europeans saying that, okay, this don't try to defeat Russia.

[00:49:10]It's just not possible. The US went all out against Iran and got a bloody nose and had a basically sign a surrender document. But it seems like the Europeans are all for this. They're like, you know, we're going all chips in. We're going in. let's do this war with Russia. So is is that right? Is that what's happening? I mean >> yeah. Yeah. No, there's no sign that they are reconsidering um you know their policies visa v Russia and Ukraine. No sign whatsoever. And they feel like they're having successes. You know there have been these drone strikes over the last couple of weeks that um that you know if nothing else create some dramatic footage. Now I I think if you stop and it's and you know analyze you know the effects on the the um you know on each side's militaries these these are doing virtually nothing you know as again you know perhaps having a a minor effect on the um on the uh energy economy within Russia having a the only place is you know uh is where there is a real significant effect of course is Crimea and Crimea is having to ration fuel because of these strikes. Um, Crimea is just especially vulnerable because it's a peninsula, almost an island, and it's just easier for um the Ukrainians to, you know, to um to affect its supply, you know, its links with the the rest of Russia. Uh, and but this is not the first time this has happened to Crimea. Crimeas, you know, first of all, the Crimeans absolutely hate the Ukrainians and every time they do this, I think it just makes them just um increases their resolve, you know, to oppose Ukraine and support the war effort. So, if you know, you're thinking you're trying to you're actually going to persuade the Crimeans to go back to Ukraine, all this has the opposite effect, of course. Um but it does it does create these headlines and that seems to be you know again always been a big part of uh of uh well you can even say the greater part of of um Ukraine's war against Russia you know was the information war that they invest so much of it and often determines the strategies that they they use the allocation of resources you know you look at the Kursk invasion whatever it was a disaster but it did give them a a good few weeks of you know positive news or they you the the the cranky tobacco that's when they crossed the Deniper right in in the Keroson region that was a total disaster but he did give them a few weeks of positive coverage and that's what they do now I think this is actually a little bit more significant because it shows that they are getting higher quality drones um and and there is a danger that somewhere you know down the line that that they they will h have drones that can do some real damage or or strike a target like you know like the criminal land within Moscow and do some real damage and then you know that's going to take us to a different place. You know, these are things that yeah, it it they bother the Russians, you know, more than that, you know, creates some sort of embarrassment, but you know, embarrassment is not what makes you lose the war, right? And the and and uh the leadership in the Kremlin, above all, Putin is the kind of person who just knows to set that aside. Okay, he doesn't like the embarrassment, but he keeps laser focused on the war and what's happening on the ground. And what you look when you look at what's happening on the ground. Yeah. The the the Russians are winning and they're winning some very important battles right now. Constantine it could fall in a you know some people say a couple of days. It'll probably be a few weeks or something. It always takes longer than what people say but it's it's it's close to falling and it's a very important city. You know it's a it's part of that that line of cities as the last defense of Donbos. And then uh Leman is about to fall. that really could fall in a a couple of days. That's over to the east of of Kromator and Slavian, the northeast actually. So, you know, Constantine is to the south, Leman is to the north. And when both of those fall, and it should be soon, then, you know, the there's really nothing between uh the Russians and chromatavians, you know, that's that's really the the last part. Now, that could be a big battle. could go on for months. may take a couple months to to you know start the siege and then the and we [snorts] see you know those are fairly large cities and I'm um I think between the two of them let's see chromaturs and savviance we're talking about 255,000 you know so quite a bit larger than um or or constant you know these those were on the order of 70,000 um uh but they're getting there and they're going to they're going to do it I don't have any doubt that they're going to take all of the Donbass. So, you know, they they are winning on the battlefield. Now, the thing is um yeah, there is there is a fact though that this uh that these strikes are causing problems. I mean, the the Russians always show the ability to manage them, but it it does show that uh you know, the it does I I the drone warfare is such an important part of this. you know, is you could say is the greater part of this conflict and the fact that they are now the the Ukrainians are able to succeed in strikes that they weren't able um to to accomplish before. I think that you know that has to worry the Russians. I think that that has to you know um there you know there continues to be a lot of frustration within Russia uh on at least in certain segments of the society and say you know why are we just you know why don't we take the gloves off you know why don't we really hit them hard why don't we take out the Rada and the and Vancova you know the presidential residents and all that kind of thing why don't we engage in decapitation strikes um and I think, you know, if that really made a difference, I I could even support it, but I don't think it even makes a difference in the end. It just I think it maybe would even harm Russia, you know, to I think in essence they would be kind of going the the way of the Israelis and they shouldn't do that. Um, [snorts] but what can they do, you know, especially since they are, you know, clearly getting all this help? You know, Ukraine is they're not just fighting Ukraine. Again, the Europeans and the Americans, they're so deeply involved in all these strikes. What can they do?

[00:55:48]Should they strike, you know, targets in out in NATO, uh, in a NATO country? Um, there are Russians that advocate that.

[00:55:56]Kuragenov, you know, is Sergey Kuragenov is the the best example of that. He says, first do it conventionally. If that doesn't make a difference, go nuclear. And, you know, he's not a minor figure, too. You know, he's he's an important voice within Russia. So there are voices like that saying that we need to escalate in this big way. But I don't know. Okay. Does that is that a wise thing to do? You know, to at this point to take on all of NATO and then the thing is like NATO is so large. You could take out a factory somewhere that's producing drones, but you know, it's you're talking about a huge land mass, you know, a good part of a continent. Can you really effectively, you know, strike the logistics and, you know, the production capabilities such as they are within Europe? I I don't know that that's a good course to pursue. and then you risk having you know this allout war that yeah you know maybe in the end you could prevail but it's going to be rough you don't you know why so I can understand why the uh Kremlin is proceeding with some caution I think some of the criticism is warranted and I I would say that particularly when it comes to remember those threats against Kiev they issued those threats and said they advised evacuation on part of all the embassies and they did carry out some major strikes but it just wasn't anything. It seems like it fell far short of what they're threatening. And I think that's a mistake because that actually hurts your deterrence. If you say something like that, you know, you're making it real clear and then you don't back it up. I think that, you know, um that seems to me a mistake, a big mistake on the part of the Kremlin right there. um you know, their deterrence, their credibility in that area was already pretty weak and they made it weaker by failing to really carry out with carry out, you know, massive strikes. They they were major strikes, but they just they weren't massive. Um now, I know the the military analyst Reebar, you know, he agrees that you shouldn't go for these decapitation strikes and, you know, a strike on the rod or whatever. That may be emotionally satisfying, but it doesn't help. But he said that the the Russians may should increase strikes on economic targets [clears throat] in response to what the Ukrainians are doing and they can do a lot more damage than the Ukrainians can do to the than the Ukrainians can do to the Russians. So he pointed to Adessa. I think you know remember several months ago Adessa was the port there was basically shut down but since then the Russians have let it kind of to to become to return to operation and there's a lot of shipping going and I say you just need to shut it down start you know hitting all these economic targets and make them feel this you know real um dro destroy what remains of the of the Ukrainian economy and that puts more pressure on the [clears throat] Europeans you know they're they're having they're struggling to keep this economy, this zombie economy, you know, [clears throat] um, afloat.

[00:58:50]Um, but you'll make it that much harder for them, you know, again, if you if you destroy what remains and of that economy. And there there are signs that that's what they're doing. There there were strikes on some tankers by the Russians. That's kind of that's unusual for them. And then a lot of strikes now along things like gas stations and um that's something they didn't do before. So maybe that's where they're going. you know, that's where they're going with the air war where they continue to, you know, um, advance slowly, you know, on the ground.

[00:59:20]>> Yeah. So, do you think then the strategy for Russia is to avoid any type of direct confrontation with NATO and instead to exhaust them politically, financially, um, you know, their logistics, productive capacity, uh, all of these through Ukraine. Let them keep on propping up Ukraine. like he's saying if they hit these economic targets that just makes it more pressure on Europe to bolster the Ukraine's economy to keep it afloat and and the same thing with the you know all the munitions that they're pouring in and eventually we'll see some type of political upheaval civil unrest something like this and there will be a change um and we're already kind of seeing that happen to some extent with like the IFD becoming more popular I know Kier Starmer is finally out all these guys Mertz and um Mronone they're very unpopular. So maybe that's what the the strategy is. Do you think that's what it >> Yeah, I think it is. You know, I understand like there's part of me um that that feels the same way, you know, uh that a lot of these nationalists within Russia and and and maybe and you know, many people within our geopolitical community feel. I understand that. I feel it the same way.

[01:00:29]Some it's like, damn, just hit him. You know, it's like in a way, you know, it's just abstract justice. It's clear that the Europeans are striking into Russian territory, right? And the Russians do have a right to strike back, but is that actually wise? And when I look at it, I have to say, you know, I think Putin's actually right about this. I'm not saying that Putin hasn't made mistakes.

[01:00:51]You know, I think he made a mistake about Kiev. Maybe that's that's not over. There are other strikes coming.

[01:00:55]We'll see. Um but but I understand what he's what he's doing. I understand the logic. you say okay you know we this is difficult you know but we can win this and we are winning this you um now the danger comes is like if [clears throat] like with this air war if the you know the drones become more and more effective on the Ukrainian side and then their their uh long range missiles are supplied to the Ukrainians that actually do something you know more than um that cause more than an embarrassment or you know or minor economic damage to the Russians, you know, something major, you know, a strike on on on Red Square or St. Basil's Cathedral or something like that, you know, it's just but it could be a number of things. Um, and then at that point, it's just like the the Russians, there's just no way that that uh Putin and the Kremlin, I think, could resist the pressure to make to to really escalate. So, that's the thing. It's a dangerous game that the Europeans are playing. you know, again, they say, "Ah, you know, this guy will never we're just we're going to um humiliate him and then, you know, eventually they there will be an uprising in Russia." This is all just, you know, completely flawed thinking.

[01:02:09]It's been flawed for for years and years and years. But they they they're still that's where they're, you know, that's where the Europeans are at. You know, they they don't see they seem to be incapable of actually um adjusting their thinking on this.

[01:02:26]>> Yeah. I mean, it seems to be clear that the strategy for the Ukrainians was always to bring in NATO into this fight.

[01:02:32]But I'm wondering now, do you think the strategy for people like Kaia Kalis and Ursula Vanderion is to do the same? And that's one of the reasons why they are helping Ukraine to strike more and more into Moscow, deep into Russia, keep on sending these drones, get these videos, embarrass Russia like you said, make them feel some pain and this will keep continue to put pressure on them to where they can eventually Russia will be like we have to hit the the NATO factory that's pumping out these drones. Um this is ridiculous. And then when they do that, then all of a sudden NATO's like, "Article 5, oh my god, here we go."

[01:03:04]>> Um, and so that's what they're hoping for. And you think that's the trap that's being set?

[01:03:08]>> I don't know if they're even hoping for that, you know, maybe.

[01:03:11]>> Um, I I'm sure some of them are, you know, especially the Brits somehow seem to be really itching for a battle. It's just bizarre. I mean, it's incredibly stupid.

[01:03:22]>> Not the British people though, right? I mean, >> right. Right. Yeah. I think this is all in true, you know, with the exception of um of like maybe the Baltic states and to some extent Poland, but even, you know, I I think that we're talking about Poland is still a pretty small minority.

[01:03:37]Um yeah, the people in general are not do not want to have a war. They do not.

[01:03:42]And it's just some of these leaders, others are just thinking, you know, again, it's just like they have this sense of invulnerability. It's just like they can't think of the Russians say they they they can't give up that thought of, you know, of this weak Russia that um that's in the end will come back to them, you know, begging for um for forgiveness and for and help and and you know, rebuilding their institutions and they now can we please become a proper European country the way that we want and yes, you know, we'll we'll like the Soviet Union broke up. we we'll let these other regions go their own way because we want to be part of you know the you know the cool kids club the the EU or something. Um it seems like they they have that kind of vanity. I mean it just it hasn't left them. You just look at the way they talk and they can't look at Russia as a real threat. Sometimes they played it up but in general if they thought Russia was a real threat they wouldn't be going down this course. you know, they wouldn't be provoking and they wouldn't be drawing them, you know, pushing them to the point where Russia could really hit back hard. It feels forced to hit back hard.

[01:04:48]Again, it's just such a contrast to the Cold War years. Um, you know, there there was this understanding, okay, yeah, we don't like Russia, that's that we oppose the system, etc., etc. It's not Russia, the Soviet Union. Um, uh, so but we cannot risk war with them. You know, that would be such a disaster.

[01:05:05]They just have lost that fear. I think there's just this vanity, this sense of kind of invincibility which can lead to disasters. Let's say I think it did happen in the case of Israel in Iran. I think they had that sense of invincibility. You know, it's just like every nation is going to fall before us and this time it didn't happen. And they don't even know how to deal with it.

[01:05:25]What's going on right now? Like I've I've said um and I think there's something similar in the case of the political class in in Europe. they have that sense of invincibility, you know, it's just this this vanity that blinds them and it could lead them into a disaster, you know, where they just think, oh, you know, this this country can't really threaten us, you know, after all, they're Russia and and we are the Europeans.

[01:05:51]>> Yeah, that's um not a good way to think.

[01:05:54]But where do you see where do you see the US uh getting involved in this? Do you see the US removing itself further and further after the Iran debacle or do you think Trump is like I have to have some type of win and the Europeans feel so confident now they've convinced me it's like okay I'll show them like what >> yeah you know he was there at the uh G7 and he signed on to all the you know sanctions and against Russia statements against Russia he was he didn't um he hasn't really I don't know that there was a real change in policy there's still this idea of withdrawing you know more US troops from the uh from the the NATO countries and so on level again there has the US has pulled away from from this conflict to some extent um but but um like I think we've pointed out before is that the mo their most important contribution really always has been their um their int intelligence, you know, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that are provided by um satellites and by these, you know, these um you call them, you know, spy drones that fly around the Black Sea and are constantly collecting information and then all the um yeah, the information they collect on Russia's air defense so that Ukraine and you know, the help that they give them to evade the air defense to extent so they have a chance of hitting the targets deep within Russia, you know, that's all there and none that it stopped. That was, I think, always the the most important part of of what they were contributing to the effort, at least for the last couple of years, and that just hasn't changed. It hasn't changed a bit. Um Trump, if he was really serious about it, he could pull the plug on it. That's one area where he can't, you know, as the commander-in-chief. You Congress can allocate funds for arms and so forth, but he can just say, tell the CIA, "Hey, it's over. We're not doing that anymore." He can tell Elon Musk, you know, forget Starlink. and that you know and that could really very quickly bring about the collapse of Ukraine. I think it's again that's like one of the few areas where they have an edge on the Russians is on in communications and you know the satellite intelligence. Um the Russians are doing what they can to close the gap and I think eventually will but it may take a couple of years for them to do it. Um, so anyway, yeah, he's pulled back, but then again, he hasn't, and there's just no sign that he will, and I think the Russians know that he won't. You know, that's Putin understands that. you know, he'll still talk to him because there again, as I pointed out, we don't need to get into this in detail, but there have been benefits to Russia or at least they they have been able to avoid some of the worst case scenarios because of by keeping a line of communication open between uh the two presidents.

[01:08:52]>> Okay. All right, Dad, do you want to end it there or is there anything else you want to tell us about Russia? Um how there was something that oh I thought I think we should mention very quickly there are these um well a threat by Zalinski to attack um Bellarus >> and I think that you know that's he said it more than once. It wasn't just something that he said after you know a particularly large hit of crack or something. How do you know why? But uh yeah, by the way, I just love that. I've always hated Scott Bessant, but I [laughter] but when I heard of what he said about Sinsky, what did he call him?

[01:09:26]It was just Yeah.

[01:09:28]>> Some crackhead, right? He said something. I forget what it was. Yeah, it was a well special needs and >> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] And Yeah. Crack something. It was great, you know. But anyway, we let's just we'll set that aside. Um I know he said it more than once. He's made it clear. I think he said yesterday they were giving him a week, giving the Bellarusians a week to shut down these towers, I guess relay towers that have helped the Russians uh carry out attacks in um inside Ukraine and you know say, "Wow, would he really do that?" This first of all, it's outrageous because there's so you know, the Ukrainians are getting so much help.

[01:10:08]You know, again, I just mentioned these these drones that that are constantly, you know, flying over the Black Sea and collecting information, you know, on on air defense patterns and other things for um so what Bellarus is contributing is, you know, m is very minor in comparison. Um but he's threatening to attack him and also attack, you know, maybe more than that. He's he's he's angry that the Bellarusians are selling gasoline to Russia. You know, of course, Russia is a major oil producer. Um, but they don't have that many refineries that make gasoline and they actually rely on some of that ha having some of that oil refined within Barus and then that um gasoline is sent back into Russia. Um, and he said that this is, you know, we can't do this as supporting the Russian war effort. So, there's at least a suggestion that he could strike energy infrastructure within Barus. Now, that just really seems rather wild. You know, this would be a a major escalation if he does it. Um, but he just might.

[01:11:11]It's just that, you know, he has done, you know, could be similar to the curse invasion. He's he is, like you said, looking for ways to to expand the war. I mean, it's just to to provoke a, you know, a response or um that that he he hopes will bring in the Europeans and maybe the Americans, too.

[01:11:35]>> Okay. Well, sounds like this is going to be a very rocky year, Dad. There seems like >> Yeah. [snorts] Well, yeah, that's right.

[01:11:42]Every year seems rockier than the the previous one.

[01:11:45]>> Yeah, I just Let's hope we don't see nukes anytime soon, you know, ever.

[01:11:50]ever, >> right?

[01:11:52]>> Okay. All right. Well, let's end it there, Dad.

[01:11:54]>> Okay.

[01:11:54]>> Have a good rest of day and I'll talk to you soon.

[01:11:56]>> Okay. Bye-bye.

[01:11:57]>> All right. Bye-bye.